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DISNEY WORLD CROWDS FROM LATER DECEMBER 2015 TO EARLY JANUARY 2016

Disney World sees its highest crowds and prices of the year in the later third of December and the beginning of January, in the week that includes Christmas, and the next week that includes New Year’s Eve.

This is for a pretty basic reason: kids are out of school these weeks.

However, not every school district has the same break schedule.

In 2015/2016, more kids are out  New Year’s week than early in Christmas week, but there’s still plenty enough on break Christmas week to wildly crowd the parks…

SCHOOL BREAKS AND DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Most years, there two typical sorts of breaks:

• Long breakers–districts that take at least 2 full weeks (and three weekends) off
• Short breakers–districts that take off as close to only December 24 to January 1 as they can

In 2015, a Friday Christmas, and the patterning of school breaks around it, will make it easy for many families to head to Walt Disney World either week.

But the Friday New Year’s Day results in no schools re-opening between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

So almost all kids will be off all of the week that includes New Year’s Day, and unlike some years–like 2013–both weeks will be really lousy all week long.

ACTUAL 2015-2016 CHRISTMAS SEASON SCHOOL BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 160 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

(For how the database is built, see this.)

The weekends are in black and the two holidays–Christmas and New Year’s Day–in red.  Click the image enlarge it.

You can see that many breaks begin Saturday the 19th, with hardly any kids on break before then, but almost 30% of kids are still in school the first three weekdays of Christmas week.

By Christmas Eve, though, everyone is out, and pretty much everybody stays out of school through January 3, 2016.

A few–very few–breaks continue past January 3.

So I’ve classed both weeks as 11/highest crowds, but of the two, New Year’s week will be the worse.

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This site’s Disney World crowd calendars always show crowds dropping off in later August.

For example, in 2015, crowd rankings go from 8/high-minus at the beginning of August down to 2/lower in early September.

This page both explain how that comes about and also reviews how the site’s crowd calendars are built.

END OF SUMMER 2015 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The highest-crowd periods at Walt Disney World all have one thing in common: they are convenient times for parents to take their kids to Orlando. That is, they are times that kids are out of school and that parents traditionally can take off of work.

What’s not so clear until you do the numbers is that actual school vacation dates are much more varied than you’d think.  And there’s no good source you can go to that explains what all these varied dates are.

So every year about this time one of my nieces goes to more than 180 school district websites and captures all the key vacation dates for the upcoming academic year.

(This time of year because you’d be surprised many districts don’t put their calendars up for the upcoming year until June; this year, 170 of the 186 had their calendars out by the time we agreed to stop collecting data.)

These include the 100 largest school districts in the U.S., plus almost 90 more of the next largest school districts in the more highly-populated states east of the Mississippi–that is, the states from which in particular Walt Disney World draws its visitors.

I then create a database that shows based on district enrollment every kid who is off on every date, sum these by state, and weight them based on the state’s proportion of total US visits to this website (because Disney won’t tell me actual visitation by state!). See the image above for a screenshot example.

Finally, I calculate percentage of total weighted kids on break by date and use that to inform the crowd calendars. (There’s about 12.4 million actual kids in the database.)

Above are the results of this for when kids go back to school in 2015.

So you can see that

• Kids don’t start going back to school in real numbers until Monday 8/10
• More than a third are back in school the week beginning 8/15
• Almost 60% are back during the week beginning 8/22, and
• More than 80% are back in school before Labor Day.

In 2015, pretty much all kids are back in school by the Wednesday after Labor Day.

Moreover, vacation patterns typically don’t have people returning from their vacation the night before school begins, so the effect of these back-to-school dates is offset into earlier August by around a week.

Thus, in the 2015 crowd calendar, the week of 8/1 is rated 8/high-minus crowds, the week of 8/8 7/moderate-plus crowds, the week of 8/15 6/moderate crowds and the week of 8/22 4/low crowds.

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FALL BREAK CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD?

One of the things you’ll see now and then on the web is the claim that “fall breaks from school create big crowds at Walt Disney World.”

“Fall breaks” are multi-day school holidays before Thanksgiving, and, if material, would have an effect on Disney World—because Disney World is most crowded when it’s easy for kids to go.

If you check the facts, though, you’ll find that fall breaks are both uncommon and scattered across October and early November—other than Jersey Week and the weeks before and including Columbus Day.

Outside of those three weeks, you are much more likely to run into trouble in the fall by choosing to go to the Magic Kingdom or Epcot on a bad day—

• Epcot on a day when it’s open late for Food and Wine,
• The Magic Kingdom on a day when Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party or Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party is not showing, and evening hours and entertainment offerings are thus more extensive.

See the chart, which shows the weighted percent of US school kids in my database with more than a three-day weekend in 2015 in October and in November before Thanksgiving week.

In it, weekends are in black, and Columbus Day is in red. (The mid-week Veteran’s Day has no impact on breaks in 2015.) Everything else is blue.

The first conclusion you can draw is that the only time when more than 5% of kids are having more than a three day weekend is just before and then over the week that includes Columbus Day.

These are already known to be moderate crowd weeks—from the Columbus Day holiday and Canadian Thanksgiving—so as a “fall break” there’s no real news here.

Note also that no kids in my database of the 2105-2106 school year calendars of more than 12.4 million kids have a break weekend that extends to Veterans Day.  This holiday is celebrated on its actual date—November 11–although if it occurs over the weekend, days off will be on Friday or Monday.  So more than half of years, it does not lead to a three day weekend, as it does not in 2015. Since it is a Wednesday in 2015, breaks are not built around it at all.

Moreover, even if it does lead to a three-day weekend, most private, non-unionized employers don’t have it as a holiday, so it’s not a particularly great time for parents to go to Walt Disney World.

Second, beyond those, there’s not a lot of material fall breaks.  Yes, you can see them every week shown, but not much–at most around 5% of kids during Jersey Week. and more typically much less.  There’s just not enough here to materially affect your choices as to when to go to Walt Disney World, other than Jersey Week and the weeks before and including Columbus Day.

Note: none of this is about Thanksgiving week, which is quite crowded and a lousy time to go!

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Welcome back to Fridays with Jim Korkis! Jim, the dean of Disney historians and author of Jim’s Gems in The easy Guide, writes about Walt Disney World history every Friday on yourfirstvisit.net.

SPACESHIP EARTH AT EPCOT

By Jim Korkis

When Epcot opened in 1982 (as EPCOT Center), Spaceship Earth, the icon for the new Disney theme park, dominated the entrance, just as globe-like structures dominated the New York World’s Fairs of 1939 and 1964.

The term “Spaceship Earth” was popularized by Buckminister Fuller who was a designer, inventor and early environmental activist.

Fuller envisioned that the planet, like a spaceship, continues to travel through the universe and we as the crew must work together to keep the spaceship in good shape.

Fuller also developed the intrinsic mathematics for a geodesic dome and received a patent for it in 1954.

Spaceship Earth is the largest geodesic sphere in the world at 165 feet in diameter. It is 180 feet to the top and is covered by 954 triangular panels of alucobond (anodized aluminum on both sides heat-bonded with a polyethylene core in the center). It is supported fifteen feet off the ground by six steel legs driven deep into the ground. The structure seems to be floating off the ground.

Imagineer John Hench told reporter Laura Kavesh for her story in The Orlando Sentinel that “the columns of Spaceship Earth are constructed to reach out like beckoning arms. I defy anyone who is depressed to still be depressed when they walk through there. We do all this from experience. Walt did it from intuition. It’s designed to say, ‘You’re okay. You’re going to be okay’. We as humans must make sense of things or we feel threatened.”

Spaceship Earth is actually two separate spherical structures, one inside the other. The inner sphere is composed of 1,450 structural steel members arranged in a giant triangular fashion and is the weatherproof enclosure for the show. The inner core also contains decking at several levels and a spiral route for Spaceship Earth’s ride system.

The outer sphere façade is held about two feet away from the inner core by aluminum hubs. A gutter was developed about mid-point on the sphere to collect rain water and channel it through the structure and its supporting legs to underground drains that eventually lead to the World Showcase lagoon. In that way, rain does not cascade down the side of Spaceship Earth onto the guests below.

To minimize air-conditioning costs, air cannons direct cool air only onto the 1,552 feet ride path so that guests don’t feel the heat and humidity just a few feet away.

Before Disney decided on a geodesic sphere, other designs were considered for Spaceship Earth. These included the Roman Parthenon, the dome of Saint Peter’s Cathedral in the Vatican, and a steel frame supporting a map of the world like that at the 1964-65 New York World’s Fair. A golden geodesic dome was also seriously considered, inspired by the Expo ’67 dome in Montreal.

The attraction was officially dedicated on October 1, 1982, when Epcot first opened to the public. Chairman of Walt Disney Productions Card Walker said, “communications is the beginning of understanding and thus fitting of the park’s marquee attraction.”

In less than a week, over 100,000 guests rode the attraction. Within the first year of operation nearly 7.5 million guests rode Spaceship Earth, letting it claim the honor of the highest ridership of any attraction at all of Walt Disney World that year.

*  *  *  *  *

Thanks, Jim!

Come back next Friday for more from Jim Korkis.

In the meantime, check out his books, including The Vault of Walt, Who’s Afraid of the Song of the South?, and The Book of Mouse, and his contributions to The easy Guide to Your First Walt Disney World Visit, all published by Theme Park Press.

MORE DISNEY WORLD HISTORY POSTS FROM JIM KORKIS

• “Summer Magic” on Main Street
• Muppets and Mama Melrose
• Peter Dominick and the Wilderness Lodge
• Dixie Landing and Port Orleans Riverside
• The History of Splash Mountain
• The First Disney World Hotel
• The “Sharing the Magic” Statue
• The First Disney World Monorails
• The Water Park River Country
• The Epcot Fountain
• The Fireplace at the Wilderness Lodge
• Sid Cahuenga at Disney’s Hollywood Studios
• Spaceship Earth
• Downtown Disney
• The Missing Resort Hotels
• Echo Park and Echo Lake
• Typhoon Lagoon

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DISNEY WORLD NEXT WEEK: JUNE 6 TO JUNE 14, 2015

The material below details operating hours, Extra Magic Hours, parades, and fireworks.

The same stuff is in the image, but organized by park, not by topic. For more on June 2015 at Disney World, click here.

Note that typos happen, and schedules change! If something seems odd, or if you want to double check, use the calendar links near the bottom to get the latest official Disney World scoop.

OPERATING HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 6/6/-6/14/2015

The Magic Kingdom will be open 8a-12MN 6/6, 9a-12MN 6/7, 8a-1a 6/8 through 6/10, 9a-1a 6/11, and 9a-12MN 6/12 through 6/14

Epcot will be open from 9a-9p every day

Disney’s Hollywood Studios will be open 8a-10p 6/6 and 6/7, 9a-10p 6/8 through 6/11, and 8a-10p 6/12 through 6/14

Disney’s Animal Kingdom will be open 9a-6p 6/6 and 6/7, 9a-7p 6/8, 9a-8p 6/9 through 6/11, and 9a-6p 6/12 through 6/14

EXTRA MAGIC HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 6/6/-6/14/2015

Saturday 6/6 Morning:  none Evening: Magic Kingdom

Sunday 6/7 Morning:  Animal Kingdom Evening: none

Monday 6/8 Morning: none  Evening: Hollywood Studios

Tuesday 6/9 Morning: Epcot Evening:  none

Wednesday 6/10 Morning:  Animal Kingdom, Hollywood Studios  Evening:  none

Thursday 6/11 Morning: Magic Kingdom  Evening: none

Friday 6/12 Morning: none Evening: Epcot

Saturday 6/13 Morning:  none  Evening: Magic Kingdom

Sunday 6/14  Morning: Animal Kingdom  Evening: none

PARADES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 6/6/-6/14/2015

The Magic Kingdom:

• Afternoon Festival of Fantasy Parade: 3p every day
• Evening Main Street Electrical Parade: 9 and 11p every night

FIREWORKS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 6/6-6/14/2015

Wishes at the Magic Kingdom: 10p every night

Illuminations at Epcot: 9p every night

Fantasmic at Disney’s Hollywood Studios: 9 and 10.30p every night

SHOW SCHEDULES FOR WALT DISNEY WORLD 6/6/-6/14/2015

See Steve Soares’ site here. Click the park names at its top for show schedules.

LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST FOR WALT DISNEY WORLD 6/6/-6/14/2015

See this for forecasts.

DISCLAIMER

Everything is subject to change and typos! Check the Disney Calendars for updates and official schedules. These calendars can be found by clicking the following links:

• Magic Kingdom Calendar
• Hollywood Studios Calendar
• Animal Kingdom Calendar
• Epcot Calendar

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The latest edition of WDW Magazine, which focuses on recent and upcoming changes at Disney World, is out!

The magazine is available on iTunes, for Android, and on the web.

Editor Carl Trent has this to say about this month’s edition:

“Have you seen all the changes going on at Walt Disney World? It’s truly incredible. Fantasyland is brand new, and quite frankly, awesome. Downtown Disney is changing so much they are changing the name, as well as Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Animal Kingdom is getting a major makeover, and Frozen is coming to Epcot. Change is everywhere you look.”

My column for first-timers focuses on how first-timers can keep up with the changes that might affect their trip.

I also have an article on changes at the resorts, with a particular focus on what’s happened at the Polynesian and Caribbean Beach.

Curious?  Of course you are! Sample a free issue here. Also, now available is a preview function–check it out!

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