By the co-author of The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2018, from the best-reviewed Disney World guidebook series ever. Paperback available on Amazon here. Kindle version available on Amazon here.—Disney World Instructions for the First-Time Visitor

Weather and When to Go to Walt Disney World

By Dave Shute


Weather and When to Go to Walt Disney World from yourfirstvisit.netIf you can’t go to Walt Disney World the recommended weeks, or are just curious about weather patterns in Orlando, the following pages illuminate the weather in Orlando in the recent past.


This page shows by day for the entire year at Walt Disney World 80th percentile, 50th percentile, and 20th percentile high temperatures.

You interpret it most easily like this: “On March 1, there is a 20% chance that the high temperature will be around or lower than 68, an 80% chance it will be higher than around 68, and a 20% chance it will be around 83 or higher.”

The key takeaway is that highs are not reliably (80% chance or better) above 75 between the beginning of November and the end of March…and that the summer is really hot…


This page illuminates rain in Orlando and Walt Disney World by illustrating average total inches of rain over the 9 days of your trip by arrival date. It depicts how the rainy season gets into gear in mid-May and that substantial rain is possible through the end of September.


This page illuminates the chance of a cyclonic storm affecting any part of Florida anytime during a 9 day visit, based on arrival date.

It helps illuminate the Walt Disney World hurricane season more specifically than general statements like “The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 1.”

The takeaway is that a vacation has the biggest chance of being affected for arrival dates in late August through early October. It would be unusual for your vacation to be ruined, but it has happened.


This page provides suggestions for dealing with the two tornado seasons in Orlando: winter/spring, and summer.


The next two pages focus on Walt Disney World pool weather during the cooler months–for those who need some pool time to go with their adventures and wonder how much of that they will get during the winter.

  • This page shows the percentage chance that a day in Orlando will have a high temperature of 75 or greater, by day, from September through May. Takeaway: The chance a day will have a high of 75 or higher drops below 50% at the end of November, and does not go up to 50% again until mid-February.
  • This page shows the percentage chances of having 3 or more, 5 or more, or 7 or more days with highs 75 and higher in a 9 day visit, by arrival date for November through February. The message is similar: the chance of having 5 or more days with highs of 75 or more drops below 50% at the end of November, and does not go up to 50% again until mid-February.


All this site’s weather pages except for the material on cyclonic storms and on tornadoes are based on 20 years of data from the National Weather Service ending in December 2006. The cyclonic storm material is based on 30 years of data from Wikipedia. The tornado material is from NOAA/NCDC and goes from 1950 through October 2009.


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1 Joan { 08.07.12 at 9:52 pm }

Dave, We have WDW res from December 10-18. One morning/aft planned for MK in first few days, and then want to go back for evening parade/fireworks/holiday lights later in week. Should we do regular electrical parade and Wishes show on Sat. Dec. 15 or pay extra for MVMCP on Sunday December 16? Don’t mind paying the extra if park is less crowded Sunday night and better holiday parade, shows, etc. but from what I read, the MVMCP can be very crowded too. Your thoughts?

2 Dave { 08.08.12 at 4:19 am }

Hi Joan, MVMCP is much less crowded than regular December Saturday nights…

3 Joan { 08.08.12 at 9:57 am }

Good, then we will splurge on MVMCP. Any special tips on what not to miss that night or special viewing spots?
Another question re ADRs. Was not able to get us into a lunch at Le Cellier so had to settle for early dinner, which will take double table credits on free dining plan. What are chances we can get that switched to a lunch instead due to cancellations? Should we just check in with them early since we will be at Epcot that day or should I try online or calling?

4 Leslie { 08.08.12 at 2:45 pm }

Hi Joan!

Great choice on MVMCP! Definitely take advantage of the free hot chocolate & cookie stands set up throughout the park! The stations will be indicated on a map when you arrive for the party. Also, don’t miss a stroll down Main Street U.S.A. after the special presentation of Wishes- you won’t regret it!

Definitely keep an eye out online for any times that might come available for lunch @ Le Cellier. There are cancellations all the time for dining. Since you will be in Epcot, you can always try checking-in with them if you haven’t had any luck leading up to that day. And if nothing else, the dinner will be worth it! 🙂

Have a magical time!

5 Joan { 08.08.12 at 3:31 pm }

A transport question now: we are staying at POR this time and I have read about buses being late or overcrowded there. Do you know if it is best to walk to main bus stop (South Depot) tat that resort to get early magic hour buses or would it even be worth our while to walk all the way to the POFQ bus stop instead?

6 Dave { 08.08.12 at 8:45 pm }

Hey Joan, for MVMCP see this: and also the MVMCP portion of this:

I’m not sure you’ll be able to get in to Le Cellier whatever you do…it’s one of the hottest reservations, even for lunch…

7 Dave { 08.08.12 at 8:51 pm }

Joan, it’ll vary a little depending on when you go, where your room ends up being, and which park you are going to–POR does not share buses for MK with POFQ, for example. Honestly, once you get your room assignment, walk over to the concierge and ask their advice, by park.

Incidentally, I’m not keen on am extra magic hours unless you plan to hop away from that park in the late morning…

8 Joan { 08.08.12 at 9:23 pm }

We do plan to park hop after early magic hours. We run out of steam in early afternoon, go back to resort to rest up, and then plan another outing for dinner and evening activities. We were not able to get the Epcot Candlelight Processional Package with our dinner there so where is best place to station ourselves to see it without that? Also, one day we want to rent a car and go to the beach. Where is closest place to rent a car from POR?

9 Dave { 08.10.12 at 12:22 am }

Hi Joan, that’s great that you hop. For the Candlelight Processional, you can’t really see it, or hear it well, unless you are inside. The way that works is that there are two lines–one for the Dinner package folks, and one for everyone else. They let in the Dinner people first, then let in people from the other line until the venue is full. So it pays to get in line early…especially if the dinner package is full, as that means that its line will have many people.

There’s a national car rental right near MK, and they will come to your hotel and pick you up and take you to the rental site–and take you back to your hotel after you drop your car off–see this:

10 Joan { 08.10.12 at 6:29 pm }

Dave, Finally found your pages on rental cars, MVMCP, and Candlelight Processional, and they all are incredibly detailed and helpful! After reading, I booked our processional package with Les Chefs de France, which I hope is a good choice for 2 seniors. More questions: 1) do you have a page on trip insurance? This is my first WDW “package” so am thinking we need some in case of bad winter weather or flu etc… 2) How quickly do events like MVMCP and Gospel Brunch book for mid-December? Since they are non-refundable tickets, would prefer to wait until mid-October to book, but don’t want to miss out…3) What MK restaurant do you recommend for our dinner during MVMCP? We want to eat in the park but are not interested in characters or buffets. Any tips on getting into the new “Be Our Guest”? : ) Thanks and very much appreciate your responses.

11 Dave { 08.11.12 at 11:15 am }

Hi Joan and thanks!

On 1 I don’t have an opinion (or a page), as the fine print among options varies and individual circumstances are so different…

On 2 I would go ahead with MVMCP and hold on Gospel Brunch. The reason is that MVMCP tix are a transferable asset which you can re-sell on Ebay if needed

On 3, I would definitely go for Be Our Guest. I’ll post shortly once it announces that it’s taking reservations, so if yuo check “Recent Posts” every few days you should be fine. The next best choice for you is likely Tony’s Town square.

However, there’s much better adult dining outside the park at the Magic Kingdom resorts, which are pretty easy to access from MK–see this, focusing on the right column (“High” Adult Appeal):

12 Joan { 08.11.12 at 7:25 pm }

Dave, Since we want to stay in the park that night, guess we will go for Tony’s now and see if we can switch to Be Our Guest later…It looks as if we could even see parade from Tony’s if we got seated on porch. Does that sound like feasible plan in December, and if so, what time would parade come around that way? Also will be interested to see how you change your MK itinerary based on opening of the new section of Fantasyland in December. Would you recommend we use our early Magic Hour to explore it since we are Park Hoppers? Thanks!

13 Dave { 08.12.12 at 8:10 am }

Hi Joan, as I recall, Tony’s does not serve on the porch…the parade starts at that end of the park, is it passes Tony’s right as it begins…Under the Sea with Ariel is a short, fast-loading, and high-capacity ride, and a bit of a dud, so I don’t expect the New Fantasyland to affect the itineraries much…see this:

14 Joan { 08.14.12 at 3:52 pm }

Dave, I don’t think the Ariel ride will be a big draw for us, but I sure do want to see that new castle. Do you think people will be allowed in even when meals are NOT being served? Also, could you please give me info on the Osborne Lights in HS? Does it play only at 6 p.m. each evening and how long does show last? I am trying to arrange a dinner at Kouzzina that evening, so when would be a realistic time to get there after watching light show and then walking the Boardwalk? Thanks!

15 Dave { 08.14.12 at 4:51 pm }

Joan, I’m sure you’ll be able to see some of the castle…e.g. the gift shop!–but not sure if you’ll be able to get in to the actual dining area without a reservation. On the Osborne lights, they kick off at 6 then play til the park closes. If you saw the 6p opening, you could easily get back to Kat’s by 7.30p, and with some luck and fast walking by 7p…

16 Anonymous { 08.26.12 at 12:41 pm }
Hi am trying to organise trip for my family, I turn 50 in 2014 and the kids and I have never been to Florida before , can anyone tell me the best time to go and offer any advice on parks , sight seeing etc , the kids are all in their teens so would have a great time

17 Dave { 08.26.12 at 1:16 pm }

Hi, I’ll have more 2014 specific advice out in late Sept, but for when to go start here and then look here:

For all the other basics, work your way down through the topics on the home page here:

18 Claire E { 02.07.13 at 7:34 am }

we arrive 8th feb – 22nd 🙂 can you recoomend what poarks we should do first due to crowds etc 2 kids 9 & 7 yrs old. We have bought park tickets & are doing discovery cove 18th.
When/where are the fireworks? Any suggestions what we should do extra??

Many Thanks

19 kim { 02.20.13 at 5:56 pm }

Hey dave !
I’m planning a trip either early may or early november not sure which time to go
Which time would be better u think ? Considering crowds , weather ,and price .
I’m debating because I’ve read online somewhere that in may florida gets a lot
Of thunderstorms ,with lots of lightning . And in november what worries me is it being hurricane season.
Any help would be appriciated thanks !

20 Dave { 02.21.13 at 8:18 am }

Hi Kim, I have recommended weeks in both May and November here:

While the hurricane seaosn officially runs June 1-November 30, the peak is over by mid-October. See this: The first full week of November is not great because of Jersey week–see this:

Early May weather, in my opinion, is fine. You don;t really get the daily afternoon thunderstorms until later…

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21 kim { 02.21.13 at 3:40 pm }

So from what I’ve read if I decide to go in november the
9 th to the 16th would be good ? I read ur weather chart and was a bit
Confused.Is it warm that time of year ? Like over 75 degrees ?
I’m wondering because I have 2 young chilldren and would like to fit in pool
Time with them . Thanks

22 Dave { 02.22.13 at 9:40 am }

Hi Kim, the only downside to that period is that weather can be all over the place.

I love my weather chart but have never been able to explain it to normal people who weren’t math majors! Here’s how to read it–and please let me know if this explanation makes sense and if it does I’ll put in on the page itself!!

I’m talking about this page by the way: I’ve also copied the chart itself into this comment above.

So the pink line in the middle is the typical high temperature. Mathematically it’s the median, which means there’s a 50-50 chance the high will be lower or higher than the pink line. Or to think another way, if you were there two days in a row, typically one day would have a high above the pink line, one a high below it, and the average of the highs of the two days would be the pink line.*

But that raises the question of how much above or how much below the pink line. And that’s what the blue and yellow line are meant to communicate. The short version of the blue and yellow lines is that the closer together they are, the more likely the actual high temp will be pretty close to what’s signaled by the pink line. The wider apart they are–as they are in November through February–the more the highs can be well above, or well below, what the pink line expresses.

So here’s another way to think of it. If you go on a five day trip, the odds are that three of the five days will have high temperatures between the blue and yellow lines, one day will have a high below the blue line, and one well have a high above the yellow line. And the average high of all five days will be the pink line!

The whole point of all this is that there’s broad stretches of the year when the “typical” (pink line) high temp can be a lot lower than, or a lot higher than, what you actually see!

Does this help, or have I confused matters even more?

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*Yes I know average and median aren’t the same, and what I really should have said is that if you went the same day two different years rather than two days in a row, etc, but I’m looking for comprehensibility, not accuracy…since the data is continuous the second statement is fairly accurate, and because variability is fairly symmetrical around the mean, the median and mean are pretty close…

23 kim { 02.22.13 at 2:20 pm }

Yes that helps a lot ! Thanks so much dave !

24 Dave { 02.22.13 at 5:15 pm }

Yay! Thanks Kim. I’m gonna go copy those words to the page itself!

25 Maria Anguiano { 05.20.13 at 8:19 am }

Hi there , I have a few questions this will be the first time my whole family is coming down from California to Fayetteville Nc to visit me & were planning a trip to Disney world . I have few concerns about the weather mainly about the hurricane season our trip dates will be on aug 5-9 of 2013 .is that a good time to visit the parks. Is there a possibility that a hurricane will hit? And should we buy insurance for our trip I’ve heard that they recommend it just in case a hurricane does occur during our visit.
How hot is it during the time of August in Florida.
Sincerely , Maria A.

26 Dave { 05.20.13 at 9:09 am }

Hi Maria, for what you’ll face in August, see this:

I don’t have a strong opinion on trip insurance…some swear by it, I never buy it. If you do buy it, comparison shop and read the fine print!

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27 Maria A { 05.20.13 at 11:27 am }

Thank you for the help. – Dave

28 Veronica { 09.19.13 at 11:26 am }

Hi. How’s the weather in November? It it hot in the day and cold at night? Going to DW 11/8 – 11/11. Do I have to worry about rain or hurricanes?

29 Dave { 09.19.13 at 5:18 pm }

Veronica, weather is variable in November. See this: November is also still in the hurricane season, but the peak of the seaosn is well past by then. The same link above has links to more material on rain and hurricanes.

Was this even remotely helpful?

Well then mosey on over to the home page, and like it on Facebook or pin it on Pinterest!

30 Lista do que você precisa saber pra uma viagem a Orlando { 10.30.13 at 3:40 pm }

[…] mês a mês em Orlando. No site Your First Visit eles tem uma página muito boa que cobre todos os detalhes sobre o clima. E se chover quando você estiver nos parques? O blog Eu Viajo com Meus Filhos tem um post sobre […]

31 Paula { 11.13.13 at 8:45 pm }

Our family of 10-2 seniors, 3 adults, 5 children (3,3,5,6,9 yrs old) are arriving at WDW Feb 17. We will be going immediately to MVMCP. We have 4 day hopper passes starting Monday. We can add the “and more” but wasn’t sure about swimming temps. We are all whimps in cold water! Will it be shorts weather or jackets and jeans? I know…I looked at the chart, whats your best guess! Thanks

32 Dave { 11.14.13 at 10:25 am }

Feb 17? No MCMCP then! But whether you meant November or December I would not add the water parks and more. Buying one water park ticket at the gate is cheaper than adding the option. And that time of year the odds are that you won’t want more than a day in the parks.

I can’t guess about the weather, because the point of the chart is that it could be anything! So bring both warm weather clothes and layers for cooler weather…you cna always leave the layers in the lockers at the front of the park.

And remember Disney almost always lets in MVMCP folk at 4p, even tho the tix say 7p!

33 Maria Evans { 01.08.14 at 4:42 pm }

Hi this will be my first trip to disney world ever!! Never thought my dream would come true but it has!! I have 3 children 10,4,2. I’m lost at how to plan for the trip!!! With the one being so little I prefer to go at a least crowded time but then after reading your post Im extremly worried about the weather! Please help was thinking late august-mid september 2014. What week do you think would be the safest bet?? Thanks in advance!!!

34 Dave { 01.09.14 at 5:17 am }

Well, Maria, I wouldn’t be on any of these weeks, as they are all in the peak of the hurricane seaosn. See this for better choices–and if you have to go then, just pick the week that works best for you

35 Tina { 02.11.14 at 11:05 pm }

Hi there – love the site…we are looking to go in November from Thursday 20th thru Tuesday 25th. How is the weather (for water rides) and crowds?

36 Dave { 02.12.14 at 8:18 am }

Tina, because of the Thanksgiving holiday, crowds will be high beginning the 22nd. November weather is all over the place. There may be good water park days, but there may not…

37 Tara { 05.14.14 at 4:14 am }

Hi Dave,
Just wanted to say your site is fantastic! Me and my better half have just booked to go to Disney for our honeymoon for next year in May 2015. We get married here in the UK in September 2014 and thought May 2015 would be a good time to visit (and give us chance to save as much money as possible!)
I’ve never been before (only Euro Disney – Paris), and my partner’s last visit was 8 years ago. He proposed to me at Disneyland Paris, so it only made sense to have our honeymoon in Florida!
Thanks again for your site, it’s extremely useful for someone like me 🙂

38 Dave { 05.14.14 at 7:15 am }

Hi Tara, thanks for the kind words, and what a wonderful story!

39 Kelly { 06.19.14 at 11:59 am }

Hey there, Dave! When do you normally update your calendar, when should I look for 2016 dates? 🙂 thanks so much for your amazing work!

40 Dave { 06.20.14 at 7:52 am }

Hi Kelly and thanks! I’ll update the 2015 calendar later this summer, and put the 2016 forecast out in early fall.

41 Andrea { 04.21.15 at 10:47 am }

4 days until our Magic begins (4/25-4/30)! I have an awesome plan for our 4 days in the parks w/ park hopper. However, looking at the possible weather for next week, I’m wondering if I might need to call an audible when we get there.
Current Plan:
Sunday–rope drop MK w/ FP+, hop to HS in the afternoon for shows
Monday–rope drop AK (no FP+), hop to HS (FP+ Toy Story, Frozen, Star Tours)
Wed–rope drop EP, hop to MK in evening (FP+ A&E, SDMT, Wishes)

I’m a FL resident, so I know that you can’t trust the forecast a week out. But, I just wanted to get your opinion. TODAY, there is an 80% chance of rain for next Monday (our AK day). If the weather is still looking bad for Monday when we’re at the MK on Sunday, would you recommend hopping to AK on Sunday instead of HS? Then, we can do shows and things in the morning at HS on the rainy day rather than walking around the mostly open air Animal Kingdom. Does that seem like a good idea?

42 Dave { 04.23.15 at 7:56 am }

Hi Andrea! Sure, you can do that, but AK has EMH on Sunday so crowds will be higher than Monday…me, I’d take lower crowds in the rain…

43 Nic { 08.02.15 at 3:44 pm }

Hi Dave, can you please advise what we can expect if we go 23 June to 9 July 2016 particularly the weather and crowds. We have been in late July, and August, October and 15-31 Dec but not tried June/July. Will it really be that busy?
Many thanks

44 Dave { 08.03.15 at 7:33 am }

Nic, see this and this–they are about about 2015, but 2016 will be pretty much the same.

45 Naomi { 10.19.15 at 11:34 pm }

Hi Dave… Or anyone who would be able to answer…
So according to the site; the weekend after thanksgiving is the best to visit in November.. Am I correct?

46 Dave { 10.21.15 at 2:28 pm }

Naomi, my rankings are Saturday-Sunday 9 day “weeks,” not weekends. If I’m just looking at a weekend, the weekend that’s 12 days-ish befroe Thanksgiving is usually the best November weekend.

47 Alan { 02.02.16 at 3:24 pm }

Hi Dave,
love your site and all the analytics. This is not going to be my first trip to WDW, but my first with my son (3yo)and daughter (7 month old). I am thinking about traveling in the last week of September (9/24). According to your crowd calendar that would be a good week to go. My son loves water parks so the winter is out of the question. Do you think that the last week of September and first of October will be too hot for my children? Would it be better to postpone the trip for one week? Thanks so much

48 Dave { 02.03.16 at 5:31 pm }

Hi Alan and thanks!!

As you can see from the chart here, there’s a precipitate drop (weather pun there) in median temps in later Sept inot October, and also in increase in the variability of the temps (variability, visually, is the distance between the blue and the pink lines.)

So the odds of a more comfortable trip increase the more you go into October; however, the inc tease in variability may swamp the effect of the median temp declining.

So taking the two factors together, I’d just pick the week that works best for you on other dimensions.

49 Dola Brooks { 03.30.16 at 10:24 am }

We are going to Disney/Animal Kingdom for the first time in June. June 15-19. Only time we could get away. Please advise. Already booked Port Orleans and Restaurants.

50 Dave { 03.30.16 at 3:43 pm }

Dola, I need a little more specific question 🙂

51 Gopinath { 05.17.16 at 3:21 pm }

We are planning for Disney world trip during 7/20 to 7/27… Should we worry about tornado/ hurricanes?

52 Dave { 05.19.16 at 7:13 am }

Gopinath, them having an impact is very rare. Just stay in touch with the weather forecasts.

53 Eric { 06.17.16 at 12:03 pm }

Hi Dave,
Wasn’t quite sure where to drop this question. I’m planning a mid-October trip (2017) and my wife is now thinking that a day at a Water Park would be fun (BB/TL). This really came up because we saw a deal that required adding the WP&M option. (The deal was buy 4 days, get 3 days free). Math aside, do you think it’s generally too cool in October for a day at a water park?

On a separate note: I hope you and all of your friends / family / etc. are ok after the horrific recent events.

54 Dave { 06.18.16 at 9:18 am }

Hi Eric, late October is typically perfect water park weather!

And thanks for the kind thought. I live in northeast Ohio so am like most others–sad from afar…

55 Stephanie { 08.09.16 at 5:29 pm }

Hi Dave: I am going to WDW next week (Aug 15-18). My weather shows it is going to rain every day. Is this true? Is there some tropical storm coming in or just the regular Florida rain for an hour or so? Thanks for your help.


56 Dave { 08.10.16 at 4:23 pm }

Stephanie, the daily charts are often misleading from the short afternoon storms. It’s too early to have a good “real” forecast.

57 Nancy { 09.28.16 at 7:17 am }

Planning a trip to Orlando area for the week of Thanksgiving for possibly WDW and Disc Cove want to swim with dolphins 2 children 3 & 7 – will it be too cool at that time of year?

58 Kelly B - Destinations In Florida { 09.28.16 at 11:19 am }

The weather in November fluctuates quit a bit. I’ve been in November where we have gone swimming, and worn shorts and t-shirts. I’ve also gone in November and it’s been below 40 degrees, we’ve worn coats and gloves and even gotten wind burn.

Both Disney and Discovery Cove do heat their water (in the 80s). And Discovery Cove requires you to wear a wet suit (long or short depending on the season). Do keep in mind that children must be at least 6 years old to swim with the dolphins.

59 Getting a Disney Vacation for the Holidays? What to Do Next - The Blogorail { 05.16.17 at 9:26 am }

[…] crowds, different families will weigh attach different weights to other factors, such prices, weather, and various special events, such as those during the Christmas season.” – […]

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