By the co-author of The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2020, the best-reviewed Disney World guidebook series ever.

Available on Amazon here.

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Weather and When to Go to Walt Disney World

By Dave Shute


Weather and When to Go to Walt Disney World from yourfirstvisit.netIf you can’t go to Walt Disney World the recommended weeks, or are just curious about weather patterns in Orlando, the following pages illuminate the weather in Orlando in the recent past.


This page shows by day for the entire year at Walt Disney World 80th percentile, 50th percentile, and 20th percentile high temperatures.

You interpret it most easily like this: “On March 1, there is a 20% chance that the high temperature will be around or lower than 68, an 80% chance it will be higher than around 68, and a 20% chance it will be around 83 or higher.”

The key takeaway is that highs are not reliably (80% chance or better) above 75 between the beginning of November and the end of March…and that the summer is really hot…


This page illuminates rain in Orlando and Walt Disney World by illustrating average total inches of rain over the 9 days of your trip by arrival date. It depicts how the rainy season gets into gear in mid-May and that substantial rain is possible through the end of September.


This page illuminates the chance of a cyclonic storm affecting any part of Florida anytime during a 9 day visit, based on arrival date.

It helps illuminate the Walt Disney World hurricane season more specifically than general statements like “The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 1.”

The takeaway is that a vacation has the biggest chance of being affected for arrival dates in late August through early October. It would be unusual for your vacation to be ruined, but it has happened.


This page provides suggestions for dealing with the two tornado seasons in Orlando: winter/spring, and summer.


The next two pages focus on Walt Disney World pool weather during the cooler months–for those who need some pool time to go with their adventures and wonder how much of that they will get during the winter.

  • This page shows the percentage chance that a day in Orlando will have a high temperature of 75 or greater, by day, from September through May. Takeaway: The chance a day will have a high of 75 or higher drops below 50% at the end of November, and does not go up to 50% again until mid-February.
  • This page shows the percentage chances of having 3 or more, 5 or more, or 7 or more days with highs 75 and higher in a 9 day visit, by arrival date for November through February. The message is similar: the chance of having 5 or more days with highs of 75 or more drops below 50% at the end of November, and does not go up to 50% again until mid-February.


All this site’s weather pages except for the material on cyclonic storms and on tornadoes are based on 20 years of data from the National Weather Service ending in December 2006. The cyclonic storm material is based on 30 years of data from Wikipedia. The tornado material is from NOAA/NCDC and goes from 1950 through October 2009.




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1 Tina { 02.11.14 at 11:05 pm }

Hi there – love the site…we are looking to go in November from Thursday 20th thru Tuesday 25th. How is the weather (for water rides) and crowds?

2 Dave { 02.12.14 at 8:18 am }

Tina, because of the Thanksgiving holiday, crowds will be high beginning the 22nd. November weather is all over the place. There may be good water park days, but there may not…

3 Tara { 05.14.14 at 4:14 am }

Hi Dave,
Just wanted to say your site is fantastic! Me and my better half have just booked to go to Disney for our honeymoon for next year in May 2015. We get married here in the UK in September 2014 and thought May 2015 would be a good time to visit (and give us chance to save as much money as possible!)
I’ve never been before (only Euro Disney – Paris), and my partner’s last visit was 8 years ago. He proposed to me at Disneyland Paris, so it only made sense to have our honeymoon in Florida!
Thanks again for your site, it’s extremely useful for someone like me 🙂

4 Dave { 05.14.14 at 7:15 am }

Hi Tara, thanks for the kind words, and what a wonderful story!

5 Kelly { 06.19.14 at 11:59 am }

Hey there, Dave! When do you normally update your calendar, when should I look for 2016 dates? 🙂 thanks so much for your amazing work!

6 Dave { 06.20.14 at 7:52 am }

Hi Kelly and thanks! I’ll update the 2015 calendar later this summer, and put the 2016 forecast out in early fall.

7 Andrea { 04.21.15 at 10:47 am }

4 days until our Magic begins (4/25-4/30)! I have an awesome plan for our 4 days in the parks w/ park hopper. However, looking at the possible weather for next week, I’m wondering if I might need to call an audible when we get there.
Current Plan:
Sunday–rope drop MK w/ FP+, hop to HS in the afternoon for shows
Monday–rope drop AK (no FP+), hop to HS (FP+ Toy Story, Frozen, Star Tours)
Wed–rope drop EP, hop to MK in evening (FP+ A&E, SDMT, Wishes)

I’m a FL resident, so I know that you can’t trust the forecast a week out. But, I just wanted to get your opinion. TODAY, there is an 80% chance of rain for next Monday (our AK day). If the weather is still looking bad for Monday when we’re at the MK on Sunday, would you recommend hopping to AK on Sunday instead of HS? Then, we can do shows and things in the morning at HS on the rainy day rather than walking around the mostly open air Animal Kingdom. Does that seem like a good idea?

8 Dave { 04.23.15 at 7:56 am }

Hi Andrea! Sure, you can do that, but AK has EMH on Sunday so crowds will be higher than Monday…me, I’d take lower crowds in the rain…

9 Nic { 08.02.15 at 3:44 pm }

Hi Dave, can you please advise what we can expect if we go 23 June to 9 July 2016 particularly the weather and crowds. We have been in late July, and August, October and 15-31 Dec but not tried June/July. Will it really be that busy?
Many thanks

10 Dave { 08.03.15 at 7:33 am }

Nic, see this and this–they are about about 2015, but 2016 will be pretty much the same.

11 Naomi { 10.19.15 at 11:34 pm }

Hi Dave… Or anyone who would be able to answer…
So according to the site; the weekend after thanksgiving is the best to visit in November.. Am I correct?

12 Dave { 10.21.15 at 2:28 pm }

Naomi, my rankings are Saturday-Sunday 9 day “weeks,” not weekends. If I’m just looking at a weekend, the weekend that’s 12 days-ish befroe Thanksgiving is usually the best November weekend.

13 Alan { 02.02.16 at 3:24 pm }

Hi Dave,
love your site and all the analytics. This is not going to be my first trip to WDW, but my first with my son (3yo)and daughter (7 month old). I am thinking about traveling in the last week of September (9/24). According to your crowd calendar that would be a good week to go. My son loves water parks so the winter is out of the question. Do you think that the last week of September and first of October will be too hot for my children? Would it be better to postpone the trip for one week? Thanks so much

14 Dave { 02.03.16 at 5:31 pm }

Hi Alan and thanks!!

As you can see from the chart here, there’s a precipitate drop (weather pun there) in median temps in later Sept inot October, and also in increase in the variability of the temps (variability, visually, is the distance between the blue and the pink lines.)

So the odds of a more comfortable trip increase the more you go into October; however, the inc tease in variability may swamp the effect of the median temp declining.

So taking the two factors together, I’d just pick the week that works best for you on other dimensions.

15 Dola Brooks { 03.30.16 at 10:24 am }

We are going to Disney/Animal Kingdom for the first time in June. June 15-19. Only time we could get away. Please advise. Already booked Port Orleans and Restaurants.

16 Dave { 03.30.16 at 3:43 pm }

Dola, I need a little more specific question 🙂

17 Gopinath { 05.17.16 at 3:21 pm }

We are planning for Disney world trip during 7/20 to 7/27… Should we worry about tornado/ hurricanes?

18 Dave { 05.19.16 at 7:13 am }

Gopinath, them having an impact is very rare. Just stay in touch with the weather forecasts.

19 Eric { 06.17.16 at 12:03 pm }

Hi Dave,
Wasn’t quite sure where to drop this question. I’m planning a mid-October trip (2017) and my wife is now thinking that a day at a Water Park would be fun (BB/TL). This really came up because we saw a deal that required adding the WP&M option. (The deal was buy 4 days, get 3 days free). Math aside, do you think it’s generally too cool in October for a day at a water park?

On a separate note: I hope you and all of your friends / family / etc. are ok after the horrific recent events.

20 Dave { 06.18.16 at 9:18 am }

Hi Eric, late October is typically perfect water park weather!

And thanks for the kind thought. I live in northeast Ohio so am like most others–sad from afar…

21 Stephanie { 08.09.16 at 5:29 pm }

Hi Dave: I am going to WDW next week (Aug 15-18). My weather shows it is going to rain every day. Is this true? Is there some tropical storm coming in or just the regular Florida rain for an hour or so? Thanks for your help.


22 Dave { 08.10.16 at 4:23 pm }

Stephanie, the daily charts are often misleading from the short afternoon storms. It’s too early to have a good “real” forecast.

23 Nancy { 09.28.16 at 7:17 am }

Planning a trip to Orlando area for the week of Thanksgiving for possibly WDW and Disc Cove want to swim with dolphins 2 children 3 & 7 – will it be too cool at that time of year?

24 Kelly B - Destinations In Florida { 09.28.16 at 11:19 am }

The weather in November fluctuates quit a bit. I’ve been in November where we have gone swimming, and worn shorts and t-shirts. I’ve also gone in November and it’s been below 40 degrees, we’ve worn coats and gloves and even gotten wind burn.

Both Disney and Discovery Cove do heat their water (in the 80s). And Discovery Cove requires you to wear a wet suit (long or short depending on the season). Do keep in mind that children must be at least 6 years old to swim with the dolphins.

25 Getting a Disney Vacation for the Holidays? What to Do Next - The Blogorail { 05.16.17 at 9:26 am }

[…] crowds, different families will weigh attach different weights to other factors, such prices, weather, and various special events, such as those during the Christmas season.” – […]

26 vis { 04.03.18 at 12:20 pm }

Hi Dave,
Thanks for the updates.
Just wanted to know if the humidity is a lot at the end -August – early Sept. in Orlando.
Will it be uncomfortable for Bush Garden and Sea Worl?

Looking forward for your reply.
Thank you.

27 Dave { 04.04.18 at 8:09 am }

Well, Vis, it varies but yes, you should expect high heat and high humidity.

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