Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

OVERVIEW: APRIL 2018 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews April 2018 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Because of Easter breaks, the first week of April in 2018 will be quite bad, with some of the highest crowds and highest prices of the year.  The rest of April 2018 should be be a great time to go to Disney World.

[Read more →]

OVERVIEW: MARCH 2018 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews March 2018 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

The first week of March can be a great time to go to Disney World, and is so in 2018, up until March 9. The rest of the month will be lousy–with high prices and high crowds.

[Read more →]

OVERVIEW: THE BEST TIMES IN 2019 TO VISIT WALT DISNEY WORLD

For most years, this site recommends arriving at Walt Disney World one of the first three Saturdays after Thanksgiving–although in 2019, the late Thanksgiving costs us a week, so the week beginning the third Saturday after Thanksgiving is not as good a choice as the earlier two weeks.

If you can’t or don’t want to go then, presented below are my rankings of the weeks of 2019 in order of best to worst times to visit Disney World.

These rankings are designed for first time visitors who do not know whether or not they will return.

For visitors on a return trip, less concerned about ride closures or the peak of the hurricane season, the later January, early February, and lower-crowd September weeks would be ranked much higher.

These rankings assume that you follow sound touring plans and pick the right parks to visit on the right days–an especially big issue during the party season in the last third of the year.

A major forecasting issue for Disney World in 2019 is the impact of the opening of the new Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge land in Disney’s Hollywood Studios. The land will partially open on August 29.  My forecasts for what will happen because of it, and why, are detailed on this page. The short version is that the land and its ride(s) will be mobbed, other thrill rides at the Studios will see longer waits, but the rest of that park–and the other three parks–will not be much immediately affected.

This last point comes from people flocking to Disney World and the Studios for Star Wars being in some measure compensated for by people avoiding Disney World and the Studios because of the potential Star Wars crowds. So if you are tempted to avoid Disney World August 29, 2019 and later to avoid the Star Wars mess, then please do avoid it, as otherwise my forecast won’t come true!

And if my forecast is wrong, things will be worse at Disney World after late August than I indicate below.

The rankings are also in calendar order on the image.

These week rankings are based on my 2019 Disney World Crowd Calendar and on Disney World 2019 price seasons.

Other factors are key as well–the Christmas season, ride closure season and hurricane season in particular.

(For more on how I build these rankings, see this; for 2020 week rankings, see this.)

RECOMMENDED 2019 WEEKS AT DISNEY WORLD, RANKED IN ORDER

The eleven recommended weeks that follow are wonderful weeks to visit Walt Disney World in 2019. 

Update: The recently announced opening of the second ride at Galaxy’s Edge December 5 makes the first two weeks of this ranking more uncertain than they were.

Week number one has it all–lower crowds (except on 11/30 itself), lower prices, and wonderful Christmas programs and decorations.

• 1: 11/30/19

Week 2 has most of the strengths of week 1, but has higher prices. It is also  a week that, because of Pop Warner football demand for resort rooms, is rarely discounted beyond its already low prices. Those intending to stay at a value resort, Caribbean Beach or Coronado Springs should consider avoiding this week, as Pop Warner guests may make those resorts boisterous this week. The recently announced opening of the second ride at Galaxy’s Edge this week

• 2: 12/7/19.

Weeks 3 and 4 are very strong weeks. They have lower crowds and prices (with higher crowds over the  weekends), and Disney World’s holiday program at the Magic Kingdom will be fully in place these weeks.

• 3: 11/16/19
• 4: 11/9/19

Week 5 got bumped from its former position as week 3 as a result of my April update.  A  few more kids on fall break the weekend of 10/26, when combined with the Star Wars partial open, has led me to bump crowds for it a bit, so it makes its way to number 5 on my list.

• 5. 10/26/19

Weeks 6 through 9 are all in the same 2019 post-Easter stretch, and share lower crowds, moderate prices, and (especially in weeks 6 and 7) nice spring weather. They are in calendar order, as the weather is better earlier in this period, with humidity and rain arriving sometime in mid- to later May

• 6: 4/27/19
• 7: 5/4/19
• 8: 5/11/19
• 9: 5/18/19

Week 10 is your best spring break week

• 10: 2/23/19

Week 11 is in what I believe will be a window between March and Easter spring breaks. If I am wrong, crowds will be higher and the week would shift into the next group.

• 11: 4/6/19

This completes the weeks in 2019 that are recommended for first-time visitors who may never return.

2019 WEEKS I’M NOT SO KEEN ON

Weeks 12-17 all have moderate crowd levels, with different prices and weather. I don’t particularly recommend moderate-crowd weeks for first time visitors, but they are quite    manageable if you have to pick one. These got re-arranged a bit with the April update as I am forecasting slightly higher crowds for the week of 10/19, which has more kids on fall break than I had previously forecast.

They are in order of least to most crowded, and within crowd groups are sorted by price.

• 12: 11/2/19. “Jersey Week”—teacher meetings in New Jersey, leading to a massive temporary immigration of New Jersey families to Orlando. Crowds moderate-minus, prices low to moderate, rarely with major discounts.
• 13: 12/14/19. Despite its high prices, this week had been ranked in my top 3 every year since I started providing this list. However, attendance this week has crept up–even though hardly any kids are on break during it–so I am now calling it a moderately-crowded week. Good choices in your daily plans and in particular in which park to visit which day can make it fine, but my logic forces me to take it off of the “Recommended Weeks” list, as I can no longer call it a “low crowd” week.
• 14: 10/19/19. Similar to week 5 but with more crowds
• 15: 3/2/19. This week was recommended in both my first draft of 2019 and in prior years, but creeping attendance leading to moderate crowds has caused me to demote it.
• 16: 6/1/19  Beginning of summer, with traditionally the lowest crowds until mid- August.
• 17: 3/16/19.  Some years this is a very rough week, but the late Easter in 2019 and its effects on school breaks lead me to forecast it as a moderate+ crowd week instead.  Prices will be very high.

Weeks 18-26 have one thing in common: they occur during the peak of the hurricane season. Hurricanes are rare and even more rarely affect a Disney World vacation, but for first-timers who may never return, why not just avoid the risk? For returning visitors, though, the low-crowd weeks among this group can be wonderful times to visit.

Most of these weeks saw increases in my crowd forecasts from a combination of Star Wars and  the new data on fall breaks. Particularly bumped are the weeks of the Star Wars opening (8/29) and the Labor Day week that follows it.

They are ranked in order of first crowd levels, and within the same crowd level, prices.

Weeks 18 through 20 have some of the lowest crowds in this period

• 18: 9/7/19
• 19: 9/14/19
• 20: 9/21/19

Week 21 through 23 have higher crowds, on average, and week 21, slightly higher prices. Note that weeks 21 and 22 are particularly hard to forecast, as no one know what will happen 8/29 through 9/2, as Star Wars partially opens while some kids are still out of school. Expect heavy crowds at the Studios these dates

• 21: 8/31/19
• 22: 8/24/19
• 23: 9/28/19

Weeks 24 to 26 are the highest crowd weeks in this hurricane group, with the last one nearing “high” crowds

• 24: 8/17/19
• 25: 10/5/19
• 26: 8/10/19

2019 WEEKS TO AVOID AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

There’s two groups of weeks to avoid: high crowd weeks and weeks when rides are often closed.

The first group, ranked 27-47, should be avoided because of crowds that traditionally range from high to unbelievable.

This group includes all of later June, July and early August (traditionally massive crowds, although I do need t0 note that the summers of 2016 through 2018 were much more manageable than I’d thought they would be).

It also includes the busy March spring break weeks beginning 3/9/2019, and the holiday weeks—President’s Day week, the weeks before and after Easter, Columbus Day week, Thanksgiving week, and the weeks around Christmas.

See the table above for exact rankings within these lousy weeks.

The next group includes the January and early February weeks when rides are often closed for repair or refurbishment—weeks 48-53.

Some of these weeks have among the lowest crowds and lowest prices of the year. The later January and early February weeks were unexpectedly bad in 2018–a circumstance that most believe was due to some operational experiments which I am forecasting won’t be repeated in 2019.

However, this is the peak time for ride closures at Walt Disney World, especially the January weeks.

If this may be your only family visit, why go when you know some of the best of Disney World will probably be closed?

If you must go during this period, avoid the first days of January (massive crowds), and the Martin Luther King Day (1/19/19 arrival date) holiday weekend.

The Marathon Weekend (affecting the weekend of 1/12/19) complicates Disney World as well, although it has little impact on park crowds.

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DISNEY WORLD IN 2018

Below are my thoughts on rides, hotels, crowds and such at Disney World in 2018. BTW, there’s even more on Disney World in 2018 in the guidebook I co-author, The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2018–the best-reviewed Disney World guidebook, ever.

NEW RIDES AT DISNEY WORLD IN 2018

The big news of 2018 will be the opening of Toy Story Land at Disney’s Hollywood Studios.

This land will include what looks like a great new roller coaster ride, Slinky Dog Dash, aimed at kids but probably fun for all, kinda like Seven Dwarfs Mine Train at Magic Kingdom, and also a minor spinning ride.

See the image at the top of this page, from the preview model in Walt Disney Presents, for the extent of the Slinky Dog Dash ride. (Click it to enlarge it.)

Toy Story Land will formally open on June 30, 2018.

Construction of the new Star Wars area will continue at Disney’s Hollywood Studios in 2018. It’s not expected to open until late 2019–October or later.

Multiple other rides are being developed or worked on at Magic Kingdom, Epcot and the Studios.

DISNEY SPRINGS AND THE DISNEY RESORTS IN 2018

The massive redevelopment at Disney Springs should largely be complete in 2018.

The story at the Disney World resorts will be refurbs and new construction.

Pop Century rooms are being renovated, with queen beds and coffee makers being added.  This should be complete, I’d hope, by mid-2018.

Shortly after Pop is done, I’m betting that Art of Animation Little Mermaid rooms will get queen beds. This will chill the already cold hearts of Disney’s accountants, as these rooms are the highest priced among the values and there’s not many of them.  However, I can’t imagine a world where the premium prices at Art of Animation can be maintained if standard rooms there have full beds and no coffee makers, while Pop has queens and coffee.

Caribbean Beach is in a messy refurb that for the moment has led to weak temporary dining. No official re-opening of the new dining here has been announced, but clues in how Disney priced Caribbean Beach for 2018 make me suspect that permanent dining will open here in the second half of 2018, and letters are being shared that suggest August 2018 is the target date.

All three of these resorts will be eventually connected to a new gondola that will go to Epcot and Disney’s Hollywood Studios. While I don’t really expect this to open until 2019, work is proceeding pretty quickly at, for example, the station for Pop Century and Art of Animation (image of the pilings for it from September 2017 above), so 2018 is possible for this.

Coronado Springs has lost a building which is being replaced by a new tower, and is also going through a building-by-building room refurb I expect to be completed in 2018.

Port Orleans French Quarter began a room refurb project in early January 2018, to be  followed by a similar refurb at Port Orleans Riverside–first Alligator Bayou, and then Magnolia Bend–ending in 2019. The re-opened rooms in Building 3 show an unambitious refurb, including principally wooden floors, more power points, and bigger TVs.

Kinda hoping for a new shower surround in Alligator Bayou…and since French Quarter is now so far ahead of Riverside in its kids water play area and in 2016 had its quick-service venue completely redone, I would not be surprised to see a bigger redo at Riverside than wooden floors, bigger TVs, and more power points…

Old Key West also is in a long-delayed refurb.

Between permanent closures and building-by-building closures for refurbs at Pop Century, Coronado Springs, and likely floor by floor closures at French Quarter, as much as 6.5% of capacity may be unavailable in earlier 2018 compared to prior years.  Since Disney’s occupancy was already very high, as a result, rooms have been hard to find, so book as soon as you can–and ideally more than 180 days before.

In late 2017, it was announced that the seven Disney Springs Resort Area third-party hotels, and also Shades of Green, would gain access to FastPass+ at 60 days. The Disney Springs hotels also gained access to Extra Magic Hours, which Shades already had. Important details are here,

Kelly B., who has been the travel agent partner of this site for years, can help you. Contact her at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499, or use the form to get a quote from her:

DISNEY WORLD DEALS IN 2018

Disney World uses a combination of complicated and changing room pricing, and, on top of that, deals, to keep its resort hotel occupancy very high. While deals have been technically available for most times of the year (you’ll find current Disney World deals here), the number and types of rooms available has gotten more and more restrictive. I expect this trend of less-available deals to be even more true in 2018 because of the capacity reductions that I noted above.

Deals often emerge after the best time to book your Disney World vacation. The simplest way to handle getting your deals is to make your initial booking through a travel agent, who will then–if a deal comes out for your dates–move heaven and earth to try to get you in to it.

I recommend Kelly B., who has been the travel agent partner of this site for years. To book your vacation through her, contact her at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499.

DISNEY WORLD CROWDS IN 2018

Presidents Day, February 19 in 2018, is late-ish, meaning more good January and early February dates, and fewer good late February dates. The week that includes Presidents Day will be bad as usual. (Tons of kids in the northeast have the whole week off.) Crowds for this week actually begin the Thursday before.

Mardi Gras in 2018 is the week before–February 14th.  A few southern school districts have it off as a single or multi-day holiday. This, combined with the more important early Presidents Day breaks, will lead to the week of 2/10/18 being moderately busy, especially in the second half of the week when the President’s Day crew begins to show up.

Easter in 2018 is early, on April 1. As a result, later March will be particularly heavy, but there will be more good April weeks.

Summer crowds are a bit up in the air.  They felt down in both 2017 and 2016. As I note here, I have theories about why, mostly about the effects of Disney’s strategic re-pricing of tickets to make the higher-demand periods like summer less attractive to some, and thus more comfortable for everyone else, particularly in the pricing of Florida resident annual passes with summer block-out dates. These new distinctions launched before the 2016 summer seasons, so the timing is right. But honestly I’m not sure what’s going on, so for the moment am still forecasting high summer crowds.

Thanksgiving, November 22, is almost as early as it can be in 2018, giving more good late November dates but fewer good early November ones.

Christmas is on a Tuesday in 2018.  That means almost all schools will begin their breaks on 12/22/18, with heavy crowds into the new year.

For more on 2018 crowds at Disney World, see this.

DISNEY WORLD PRICING IN 2018

Disney World raised ticket prices in February 2018, and announced that later in the year it would move to seasonal pricing for multi-day tickets. Resort prices should not change again during the calendar year.

MORE ON 2018 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Disney World 2018 Crowd Calendar

Disney World 2018 Price Seasons

2018 Disney World Week Rankings

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2019 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The chart lower on the page shows my forecasts for 2019 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.

I updated and revised these in April 2019 after I completed my first set of analyses of 2019 fall breaks, and after the partial opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge on August 29 was announced. Dates affected by the update are the weeks beginning 8/24/19 through 10/26/2019.

I considered revising the July 6 through August 17 crowd level forecasts down by a point–e.g. from “High-minus” to moderate plus,” for two reasons:

• For several years now, summer waits have been below past trend
• Now that the Star Wars partial opening has been announced, some folks may shift their summer visits to later in 2019 when they can see at least part of the new land

I chose not to do so for a couple of reasons. First, people underestimate how many people want to avoid the whole Star Wars opening mess, and who as a result may move their trips from the fall into the summer. And second, summer in Orlando is miserably hot and sticky, and anything I can do to incent you to avoid it I view as a service to world…

For 2020 crowds, see this.

I expect Galaxy’s Edge to unfold much like Harry Potter did at Universal–with crushing crowds in the actual land, but not a huge spillover effect on the other parks–or even much of the rest of Hollywood Studios other than the more thrill-style rides.

That said, Labor Day weekend 2019 will probably be the busiest ever instance of this holiday weekend at Disney World, and more generally, If I’m wrong, expect to see an increase of a point or two more in the crowd levels after late August. [Read more →]

2019 RESORT PRICE SEASONS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The material below shows resort price seasons at Walt Disney World at different times of the year in 2019. Resort prices can be almost twice as high during some periods as they are at others. (For 2020 price seasons, see this.)

The text part is based on “price seasons,” a grouping tool Disney World no longer makes public, but which can be identified analytically. Disney charges based on the price of the actual nights, so if your visit straddles price seasons, you’ll pay the prices of each price season.

The charts average prices over the next seven nights, by arrival date.  This eliminates what would be otherwise be incomprehensible bumpiness from Thursday/Sunday and Friday/Saturday upcharges. For exact prices by night by room type by date, see MouseSavers.com here.

My comparisons are to prices that are “the lowest of the year,” the value season.   By this I mean the average nightly price of the lowest-priced seven night period during the value season. I use seven night comparisons because there’s as many as three different prices during a seven night period in a price season, but they follow a weekly pattern.

For longer seasons, my “x% higher” compares average prices over seven nights of that season. For shorter seasons (for example, the many three day weekend upcharges)  I compare the exact short-season prices to the seven-day prices.In the material below, “X% Higher” means compared to the lowest prices of the year.

2019 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: VALUE RESORTS

• The lowest prices of the year–the value season–begins 1/2/2019
• 20-30% higher prices–Marathon rates–begin 1/10/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/13/19
• 20-25% higher for the Martin Luther King Jr. long weekend begins 1/18/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/21/19
• 55-65% higher for the long Presidents Day weekend begins 2/14/19
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 2/18/19
• 20-30% higher–the regular season–begins 2/24/19
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 3/8/19
• 20-30% higher–the regular season–begins 3/24/19
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 4/7/19
• 60-65% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/14/19

• 20-30% higher–the regular season 2–begins 4/28/19
• 45-50 higher over the Memorial Day long weekend begins 5/24
• 30-40% higher–the summer season–begins 5/27/19
• 20-25% higher–the summer 2 season–begins 8/11/19
• 5-10% higher–the fall season–begins 8/25/19
• 20-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 9/15/19
• 40-50% higher over the long Columbus Day weekend begins 10/11/19
• 20-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 10/14/19
• 5-10% higher–the fall 2 season– begins 10/27/19
• 20-25% higher over the long Veterans Day weekend begins 11/8
• 5-10% higher–the fall 2 season–begins 11/11
• 30-35% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/23/19
• 5-10% higher–the fall 2 season—begins 11/30/19
• 10-20% higher–the regular 4 season–begins 12/8/19
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 12/13/19
• 60-70% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/20/19

2019 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: MODERATE RESORTS

• The lowest prices of the year–the value season–begin 1/2/2019
• 15% higher prices–Marathon rates–begin 1/10/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/13/19
• 10-15% higher for the Martin Luther King Jr. long weekend begins 1/18/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/21/19
• 35-45% higher for the long Presidents Day weekend begins 2/14/19
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 2/18/19
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 2/24/19
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 3/8/19
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 3/24/19
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 4/7/19
• 40-45% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/14/19

• 15-20% higher–the regular season 2–begins 4/28/19
• 25-35% higher over the Memorial Day long weekend begins 5/24
• 14-17% higher–the summer season–begins 5/27/19
• 16-22% higher–the summer 2 season–begins 8/11/19
• 10-20% higher–the fall season–begins 8/25/19
• 15-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 9/15/19
• 25-35% higher over the long Columbus Day weekend begins 10/11/19
• 15-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 10/14/19
• 10-18% higher–the fall 2 season– begins 10/27/19
• 20-30% higher over the long Veterans Day weekend begins 11/8
• 10-18% higher–the fall 2 season–begins 11/11
• 20-25% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/23/19
• 10-18% higher–the fall 2 season—begins 11/30/19
• 10-20% higher–the regular 4 season–begins 12/8/19
• 25-30% higher–the peak season–begins 12/13/19
• 45-55% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/20/19

2019 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: DELUXE RESORTS

• The lowest prices of the year–the value season–begin 1/2/2019
• 15-20% higher prices–Marathon rates–begin 1/10/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/13/19
• 15-20% higher for the Martin Luther King Jr. long weekend begins 1/18/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/21/19
• 40-55% higher for the long Presidents Day weekend begins 2/14/19
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 2/18/19
• 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 2/24/19
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 3/8/19
• 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 3/24/19
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 4/7/19
• 50-60% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/14/19

• 20-25% higher–the regular season 2–begins 4/28/19
• 25-35 higher over the Memorial Day long weekend begins 5/24
• 10-17% higher–the summer season–begins 5/27/19
• 5-10% higher—near-lowest of year–the value season 2–begins 7/7/19
• Lowest of year–the value season—begins 8/23/19
• Prices bump up on 8/30/19 to 15% higher than the lowest of the year for the long Labor Day weekend
• Lowest of the year–the value season–begins 9/2/19
• 10-20% higher–the regular season 3–begins 9/20/19
• Prices increase to 25-30% higher than the lowest of the year for the long Columbus Day weekend on 10/11/19
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 10/14/19
• 20-25% higher–the regular season 4–begins 11/1/19
• Prices go to 20-30% higher than the lowest of the year on 11/8 for the long Veterans Day weekend
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 11/11/19
• 25-40% higher during Thanksgiving begins 11/26/19
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 11/30/19
• 15-20% higher–the regular season 4–begins 12/8/19
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 12/13/19
• 55-75% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/20/19

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