Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

DISNEY WORLD IN 2018

Below are my thoughts on rides, hotels, crowds and such at Disney World in 2018. BTW, there’s even more on Disney World in 2018 in the guidebook I co-author, The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2018–the best-reviewed Disney World guidebook, ever.

NEW RIDES AT DISNEY WORLD IN 2018

The big news of 2018 will be the opening of Toy Story Land at Disney’s Hollywood Studios.

This land will include what looks like a great new roller coaster ride, Slinky Dog Dash, aimed at kids but probably fun for all, kinda like Seven Dwarfs Mine Train at Magic Kingdom, and also a minor spinning ride.

See the image at the top of this page, from the preview model in Walt Disney Presents, for the extent of the Slinky Dog Dash ride. (Click it to enlarge it.)

Toy Story Land will formally open on June 30, 2018.

Construction of the new Star Wars area will continue at Disney’s Hollywood Studios in 2018. It’s not expected to open until late 2019–October or later.

Multiple other rides are being developed or worked on at Magic Kingdom, Epcot and the Studios.

DISNEY SPRINGS AND THE DISNEY RESORTS IN 2018

The massive redevelopment at Disney Springs should largely be complete in 2018.

The story at the Disney World resorts will be refurbs and new construction.

Pop Century rooms are being renovated, with queen beds and coffee makers being added.  This should be complete, I’d hope, by mid-2018.

Shortly after Pop is done, I’m betting that Art of Animation Little Mermaid rooms will get queen beds. This will chill the already cold hearts of Disney’s accountants, as these rooms are the highest priced among the values and there’s not many of them.  However, I can’t imagine a world where the premium prices at Art of Animation can be maintained if standard rooms there have full beds and no coffee makers, while Pop has queens and coffee.

Caribbean Beach is in a messy refurb that for the moment has led to weak temporary dining. No official re-opening of the new dining here has been announced, but clues in how Disney priced Caribbean Beach for 2018 make me suspect that permanent dining will open here in the second half of 2018, and letters are being shared that suggest August 2018 is the target date.

All three of these resorts will be eventually connected to a new gondola that will go to Epcot and Disney’s Hollywood Studios. While I don’t really expect this to open until 2019, work is proceeding pretty quickly at, for example, the station for Pop Century and Art of Animation (image of the pilings for it from September 2017 above), so 2018 is possible for this.

Coronado Springs has lost a building which is being replaced by a new tower, and is also going through a building-by-building room refurb I expect to be completed in 2018.

Port Orleans French Quarter began a room refurb project in early January 2018, to be  followed by a similar refurb at Port Orleans Riverside–first Alligator Bayou, and then Magnolia Bend–ending in 2019. The re-opened rooms in Building 3 show an unambitious refurb, including principally wooden floors, more power points, and bigger TVs.

Kinda hoping for a new shower surround in Alligator Bayou…and since French Quarter is now so far ahead of Riverside in its kids water play area and in 2016 had its quick-service venue completely redone, I would not be surprised to see a bigger redo at Riverside than wooden floors, bigger TVs, and more power points…

Old Key West also is in a long-delayed refurb.

Between permanent closures and building-by-building closures for refurbs at Pop Century, Coronado Springs, and likely floor by floor closures at French Quarter, as much as 6.5% of capacity may be unavailable in earlier 2018 compared to prior years.  Since Disney’s occupancy was already very high, as a result, rooms have been hard to find, so book as soon as you can–and ideally more than 180 days before.

In late 2017, it was announced that the seven Disney Springs Resort Area third-party hotels, and also Shades of Green, would gain access to FastPass+ at 60 days. The Disney Springs hotels also gained access to Extra Magic Hours, which Shades already had. Important details are here,

Kelly B., who has been the travel agent partner of this site for years, can help you. Contact her at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499, or use the form to get a quote from her:

DISNEY WORLD DEALS IN 2018

Disney World uses a combination of complicated and changing room pricing, and, on top of that, deals, to keep its resort hotel occupancy very high. While deals have been technically available for most times of the year (you’ll find current Disney World deals here), the number and types of rooms available has gotten more and more restrictive. I expect this trend of less-available deals to be even more true in 2018 because of the capacity reductions that I noted above.

Deals often emerge after the best time to book your Disney World vacation. The simplest way to handle getting your deals is to make your initial booking through a travel agent, who will then–if a deal comes out for your dates–move heaven and earth to try to get you in to it.

I recommend Kelly B., who has been the travel agent partner of this site for years. To book your vacation through her, contact her at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499.

DISNEY WORLD CROWDS IN 2018

Presidents Day, February 19 in 2018, is late-ish, meaning more good January and early February dates, and fewer good late February dates. The week that includes Presidents Day will be bad as usual. (Tons of kids in the northeast have the whole week off.) Crowds for this week actually begin the Thursday before.

Mardi Gras in 2018 is the week before–February 14th.  A few southern school districts have it off as a single or multi-day holiday. This, combined with the more important early Presidents Day breaks, will lead to the week of 2/10/18 being moderately busy, especially in the second half of the week when the President’s Day crew begins to show up.

Easter in 2018 is early, on April 1. As a result, later March will be particularly heavy, but there will be more good April weeks.

Summer crowds are a bit up in the air.  They felt down in both 2017 and 2016. As I note here, I have theories about why, mostly about the effects of Disney’s strategic re-pricing of tickets to make the higher-demand periods like summer less attractive to some, and thus more comfortable for everyone else, particularly in the pricing of Florida resident annual passes with summer block-out dates. These new distinctions launched before the 2016 summer seasons, so the timing is right. But honestly I’m not sure what’s going on, so for the moment am still forecasting high summer crowds.

Thanksgiving, November 22, is almost as early as it can be in 2018, giving more good late November dates but fewer good early November ones.

Christmas is on a Tuesday in 2018.  That means almost all schools will begin their breaks on 12/22/18, with heavy crowds into the new year.

For more on 2018 crowds at Disney World, see this.

DISNEY WORLD PRICING IN 2018

Disney World raised ticket prices in February 2018, and announced that later in the year it would move to seasonal pricing for multi-day tickets. Resort prices should not change again during the calendar year.

MORE ON 2018 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Disney World 2018 Crowd Calendar

Disney World 2018 Price Seasons

2018 Disney World Week Rankings

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2019 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The chart lower on the page shows my forecasts for 2019 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.

I updated and revised these in April 2019 after I completed my first set of analyses of 2019 fall breaks, and after the partial opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge on August 29 was announced. Dates affected by the update are the weeks beginning 8/24/19 through 10/26/2019.

I considered revising the July 6 through August 17 crowd level forecasts down by a point–e.g. from “High-minus” to moderate plus,” for two reasons:

• For several years now, summer waits have been below past trend
• Now that the Star Wars partial opening has been announced, some folks may shift their summer visits to later in 2019 when they can see at least part of the new land

I chose not to do so for a couple of reasons. First, people underestimate how many people want to avoid the whole Star Wars opening mess, and who as a result may move their trips from the fall into the summer. And second, summer in Orlando is miserably hot and sticky, and anything I can do to incent you to avoid it I view as a service to world…

For 2020 crowds, see this.

I expect Galaxy’s Edge to unfold much like Harry Potter did at Universal–with crushing crowds in the actual land, but not a huge spillover effect on the other parks–or even much of the rest of Hollywood Studios other than the more thrill-style rides.

That said, Labor Day weekend 2019 will probably be the busiest ever instance of this holiday weekend at Disney World, and more generally, If I’m wrong, expect to see an increase of a point or two more in the crowd levels after late August. [Read more →]

2019 RESORT PRICE SEASONS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The material below shows resort price seasons at Walt Disney World at different times of the year in 2019. Resort prices can be almost twice as high during some periods as they are at others. (For 2020 price seasons, see this.)

The text part is based on “price seasons,” a grouping tool Disney World no longer makes public, but which can be identified analytically. Disney charges based on the price of the actual nights, so if your visit straddles price seasons, you’ll pay the prices of each price season.

The charts average prices over the next seven nights, by arrival date.  This eliminates what would be otherwise be incomprehensible bumpiness from Thursday/Sunday and Friday/Saturday upcharges. For exact prices by night by room type by date, see MouseSavers.com here.

My comparisons are to prices that are “the lowest of the year,” the value season.   By this I mean the average nightly price of the lowest-priced seven night period during the value season. I use seven night comparisons because there’s as many as three different prices during a seven night period in a price season, but they follow a weekly pattern.

For longer seasons, my “x% higher” compares average prices over seven nights of that season. For shorter seasons (for example, the many three day weekend upcharges)  I compare the exact short-season prices to the seven-day prices.In the material below, “X% Higher” means compared to the lowest prices of the year.

2019 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: VALUE RESORTS

• The lowest prices of the year–the value season–begins 1/2/2019
• 20-30% higher prices–Marathon rates–begin 1/10/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/13/19
• 20-25% higher for the Martin Luther King Jr. long weekend begins 1/18/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/21/19
• 55-65% higher for the long Presidents Day weekend begins 2/14/19
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 2/18/19
• 20-30% higher–the regular season–begins 2/24/19
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 3/8/19
• 20-30% higher–the regular season–begins 3/24/19
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 4/7/19
• 60-65% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/14/19

• 20-30% higher–the regular season 2–begins 4/28/19
• 45-50 higher over the Memorial Day long weekend begins 5/24
• 30-40% higher–the summer season–begins 5/27/19
• 20-25% higher–the summer 2 season–begins 8/11/19
• 5-10% higher–the fall season–begins 8/25/19
• 20-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 9/15/19
• 40-50% higher over the long Columbus Day weekend begins 10/11/19
• 20-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 10/14/19
• 5-10% higher–the fall 2 season– begins 10/27/19
• 20-25% higher over the long Veterans Day weekend begins 11/8
• 5-10% higher–the fall 2 season–begins 11/11
• 30-35% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/23/19
• 5-10% higher–the fall 2 season—begins 11/30/19
• 10-20% higher–the regular 4 season–begins 12/8/19
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 12/13/19
• 60-70% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/20/19

2019 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: MODERATE RESORTS

• The lowest prices of the year–the value season–begin 1/2/2019
• 15% higher prices–Marathon rates–begin 1/10/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/13/19
• 10-15% higher for the Martin Luther King Jr. long weekend begins 1/18/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/21/19
• 35-45% higher for the long Presidents Day weekend begins 2/14/19
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 2/18/19
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 2/24/19
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 3/8/19
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 3/24/19
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 4/7/19
• 40-45% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/14/19

• 15-20% higher–the regular season 2–begins 4/28/19
• 25-35% higher over the Memorial Day long weekend begins 5/24
• 14-17% higher–the summer season–begins 5/27/19
• 16-22% higher–the summer 2 season–begins 8/11/19
• 10-20% higher–the fall season–begins 8/25/19
• 15-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 9/15/19
• 25-35% higher over the long Columbus Day weekend begins 10/11/19
• 15-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 10/14/19
• 10-18% higher–the fall 2 season– begins 10/27/19
• 20-30% higher over the long Veterans Day weekend begins 11/8
• 10-18% higher–the fall 2 season–begins 11/11
• 20-25% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/23/19
• 10-18% higher–the fall 2 season—begins 11/30/19
• 10-20% higher–the regular 4 season–begins 12/8/19
• 25-30% higher–the peak season–begins 12/13/19
• 45-55% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/20/19

2019 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: DELUXE RESORTS

• The lowest prices of the year–the value season–begin 1/2/2019
• 15-20% higher prices–Marathon rates–begin 1/10/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/13/19
• 15-20% higher for the Martin Luther King Jr. long weekend begins 1/18/19
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/21/19
• 40-55% higher for the long Presidents Day weekend begins 2/14/19
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 2/18/19
• 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 2/24/19
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 3/8/19
• 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 3/24/19
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 4/7/19
• 50-60% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/14/19

• 20-25% higher–the regular season 2–begins 4/28/19
• 25-35 higher over the Memorial Day long weekend begins 5/24
• 10-17% higher–the summer season–begins 5/27/19
• 5-10% higher—near-lowest of year–the value season 2–begins 7/7/19
• Lowest of year–the value season—begins 8/23/19
• Prices bump up on 8/30/19 to 15% higher than the lowest of the year for the long Labor Day weekend
• Lowest of the year–the value season–begins 9/2/19
• 10-20% higher–the regular season 3–begins 9/20/19
• Prices increase to 25-30% higher than the lowest of the year for the long Columbus Day weekend on 10/11/19
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 10/14/19
• 20-25% higher–the regular season 4–begins 11/1/19
• Prices go to 20-30% higher than the lowest of the year on 11/8 for the long Veterans Day weekend
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 11/11/19
• 25-40% higher during Thanksgiving begins 11/26/19
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 11/30/19
• 15-20% higher–the regular season 4–begins 12/8/19
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 12/13/19
• 55-75% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/20/19

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OVERVIEW: FEBRUARY 2018 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews February 2018 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Early February 2018 will have some of the lowest crowds and prices of the year, but also the risk of ride closures.

The end of the month brings slightly higher prices and crowds, but better weather and few closures.

In between–in 2018, the period from Thursday the 15th through Saturday the 24th–we will see high crowds and high prices.

[Read more →]

OVERVIEW: JANUARY 2018 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews January 2018 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Early January 2018 will be dominated by holiday crowds and higher prices, but after the 6th, most days will see low crowds and low prices–with upticks around the Martin Luther King Day three day holiday weekend, and possibly during the days before the Pro Bowl on January 28.

January is not recommended for first-time visitors who may never return, because of ride closures. For returning visitors–and first timers who know they can return–after the first week it’s usually a great time to visit, with low crowds and low prices.

[Read more →]

Every year I analyze summer break schedules for the upcoming school year, compare them to what I’d expected, and then don’t change my crowd forecasts for the upcoming summer, because breaks turned out about the way I thought they would, and nothing else is new.

Well, for 2018 breaks did turn out the way I thought they would–but something new emerged in the summer of 2016 that seems to be happening again in the summer of 2017. I thought long and hard about this new stuff, and about changing my crowd forecast for 2018…before deciding to leave the crowd forecast the same.

Here’s the story.

DISNEY WORLD 2018 SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds historically have been governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in mid-August

Over the past summer and a half, however, it seems other factors have come into play.

Summer stand-by waits in all of 2016 and so far in 2017 (I write this in mid-July) have been lower–sometimes substantially lower–than we’ve been used to. While there’s no evidence from Disney that attendance is substantially down (in April-June 2016, Disney World attendance compared to 2015 “was down 4% …with most of that decline due to the adverse impact of the shift in the Easter holiday period“; in July-September 2016 compared to 2015 , there were “increases in attendance…on a comparable fiscal period basis“), the feel of the parks in the summer–especially Epcot, Hollywood Studios, and the Animal Kingdom outside of Pandora–is much more comfortable than in years past.

I can’t explain the changed experience.  I have theories, mostly about the effects of Disney’s strategic re-pricing of tickets to make the higher-demand periods like summer less attractive, particularly in the pricing of one day tickets and in Florida resident annual passes with summer block-out dates–distinctions that launched between the 2015 and 2016 summer seasons, so the timing is right.

But this is just speculation, and does not much account for other things we’ve observed in the parks this summer–lower numbers of people in the parks and more easily available FastPass+. My co-author Josh has written on all three points multiple times this summer on easyWDW.com–see this for an example.

So to make a long story short, I don’t know what is going on, nor why it is going on.  Because I don’t, I don’t know if it will happen again next summer.  So I’m not going to re-forecast 2018 summer crowds as “moderate” rather than “high.”  But I also would not argue with someone else who in fact did make such a forecast change…

So if you go in the summer of 2018, you might have a much better crowd and wait experience than  I am predicting.  You will, however, still be in Florida in the summer–and I can’t possibly recommend that…

So…back to the other two drivers of summer crowds–school breaks and the peak of the hurricane season.

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the week that includes the 4th of July the busiest week.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June can start well, and then build to high crowd levels–although in 2017 the beginning of June–before blockout dates kicked in, and right after Pandora opened–was the busiest part of the month.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go as early in June or as late in August as their schedules permit. [Read more →]