By the co-author of The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2020, the best-reviewed Disney World guidebook series ever.

Available on Amazon here.

(As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.)

Chance of Hurricane Affecting Florida during Visit by Arrival Date

By Dave Shute

Weather    Temps    Rain    Hurricanes    Tornadoes    Winter Highs     Winter Pool Days


The thumbnail (click to open) illuminates the chance of a cyclonic storm affecting any part of Florida during any part of a 9 day visit to Walt Disney World.

It’s by arrival date, and is based on 30 years of data.

It helps illuminate the Disney World (and Florida) hurricane season more specifically than general statements like “The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.”

The takeaway is that a 9 day Walt Disney World vacation has the biggest chance of being affected for arrival dates in late August through early October.

Ninety percent of activity is from August through October; 50% between August 20th and October 10th; and the peak of the storm season is September 10th.

It is unusual for a Disney vacation to be ruined by a cyclonic storm–but it happens.


All this site’s weather pages except for the material on cyclonic storms and on tornadoes are based on 20 years of data from the National Weather Service ending in December 2006. The cyclonic storm material is based on 30 years of data from Wikipedia. The tornado material is from NOAA/NCDC and goes from 1950 through October 2009.



Follow on Facebook or Twitter or Pinterest!!


1 Lisa { 09.11.18 at 7:47 pm }

Heading to Disney sept. 29-Oct. 5. Does this look pretty safe weather/hurricane wise?

2 Dave { 09.12.18 at 7:10 am }

Lisa, it’s far too early to say.

3 Marty Kampmeier { 10.10.18 at 5:49 pm }

Going to the Keys October 21-25 and then Myrle Beach 26-28. Chances of a hurricane in these areas.

4 Dave { 10.11.18 at 11:13 am }

Marty, you are in the wrong place for weather forecasts. It is way too early to know anything about a hurricane those dates, and when it gets closer, go here:

5 Vishesh { 10.24.18 at 10:40 pm }

Is it weather wise safe to plan a visit to Disney around 15 Nov?

6 Dave { 10.25.18 at 5:03 pm }

Vishesh, all of November is technically in the hurricane seasons, but they are quite rare so late, and mostly when they do occur affect points further north. See also this.

7 Climate Change Proved: Hurricane Hits Florida in Hurricane Season - The Sentinel { 05.14.20 at 2:44 pm }

[…] Virgina, hurricanes hit Florida during “hurricane season.” Disney World puts out a handy guide for visitors. According to the guide, “Ninety percent of activity is […]

8 How Does Hurricane Season Affect Your Orlando Roof? - Roofing Central Florida #1 // G&A Certified Roofing Florida { 04.05.22 at 6:27 pm }

[…] you know that Orlando is around 40% likely to experience a hurricane during the first week of September?!  Are you aware that Orlando has two tornado seasons, from […]

Leave a Comment | Ask a Question | Note a Problem

My response to questions and comments will be on the same page as the original comment, likely within 24-36 hours . . . I reserve the right to edit and delete comments as I choose . . . All rights reserved. Copyright 2008-2024 . . . Unless otherwise noted, all photos are by me--even the ones in focus--except for half a dozen from my niecelets . . . This site is entirely unofficial and not authorized by any organizations written about in it . . . All references to Disney and other copyrighted characters, trademarks, marks, etc., are made solely for editorial purposes. The author makes no commercial claim to their use . . . Nobody's perfect, so follow any advice here at your own risk.