6 responses

  1. Brandy L Jones
    December 4, 2019

    I have read many crowd calendars saying it not as busy the last week of January but I do notice that all of the value resorts are completely booked. Is there another event that might contribute to that?

    Reply

    • Dave
      December 4, 2019

      Hi Brandy. The Disney hotels routinely run at 85-95% capacity, and are commonly booked up ~3 months ahead for stays that include weekends. You aren’t seeing anything unusual!

      Reply

  2. Andrew
    October 3, 2019

    Hi Dave,

    Me again. Curious to see if you\’re downgrading crowd estimates for early 2020 following the relative disappointment of the initial opening of SWGE. Or are you still waiting to see crowds after the land is fully opened?

    Reply

    • Dave
      October 5, 2019

      Andrew, my early January crowd estimates are almost entirely a function of school breaks–in 2020, half of kids are out through January 5.

      If anything, early January will be worse, if Rise of the Resistance is anything like I expect it to be, as in that half of kids off through January 5 is pretty much all of Florida, and lower-cost annual passes with block-out dates see their block outs lifted January 3.

      Reply

  3. Andrew
    July 24, 2019

    Hi Dave,

    I noticed that you used the \”higher crowd\” itinerary for end of January, where crowds are predicted to be among the lowest of the year. Given the reported drop in bookings for the last several months of 2019, do you think that will continue into early 2020 with lower crowds than in past years? Or do you think people are delaying trips until after SWGE gets sorted out?

    I\’m booked the week of Jan 25. Went same week last year and it was definitely more crowded than I expected.

    Thanks for all your good work!

    Reply

    • Dave
      July 25, 2019

      Hey Andrew, greta questions!

      First I always take these “bookings are low” claims with a grain of salt. They have been rampant the last few years, while Disney’s earnings calls and SEC filings indicate instead stable or increased attendance, and +/- 90% room occupancy–that is, to date, the “bookings are low” claims have been entirely wrong. We will get a bit more factual insight in the 8/6 earnings call–during which Disney will comment on bookings in the current quarter (that is, July-Sept)

      I have recommended the high crowd itinerary for all dates after the GE opening. This is just a risk management point–if crowds end up more like what I have predicted elsewhere, then it is easy to shift to the lower crowd itinerary instead, as the ADRs and park days are the same…

      Reply

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