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Every year around this time I get comments from people trying to book one of my recommended December weeks that say something like “all the Disney World hotels are booked, so how can these be lower-crowd weeks?”

The short answer I always give is that this happens every year.

Disney World hotel occupancy is not a crowd calendar. These hotels are almost full almost all of the time, in high crowd periods or low. For three years now, occupancy has been above 85 percent, and for the last seven quarters it’s averaged 89 percent. For an average room, that equates to about two nights free every three weeks.

Rooms have been even harder to find in 2017.

• First, about 3 percent of capacity permanently disappeared in 2017, with demolition of rooms at Caribbean Beach and Coronado Springs, and conversion of formerly eight-person areas at the Wilderness Lodge to four-person areas in Copper Creek.
• Second, the ongoing room refurbs at Pop Century and Coronado Springs have taken another 1.5% to 3% of rooms out of capacity, depending on how many buildings are closed at a time for refurb

This may not sound like a lot–but it’s about half of the previous excess capacity.  So a room that used to be unused two nights out of every three weeks now might now be unused two nights out of every six weeks…

You can tell from Disney’s pricing patterns that the most popular nights are Fridays and Saturdays, and the least popular Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays.  So vacations that include weekend nights–as almost all do–are even harder to book.

Moreover, I am told–I can’t independently confirm this–that Disney is booking “orphan” room nights differently.

Say a room is booked through a Saturday, then available the next five nights Sunday to Thursday, and then booked again beginning the Friday after. Before this purported change, a guest who wanted to book this room Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday would have no problem, even though it would leave “orphan,” hard-to-book single nights on Sunday and Thursday.

Word is that this no longer works so well, as Disney’s systems prefer in this case guests looking for a Sunday-Tuesday or Tuesday-Thursday stay, leaving a more bookable two-night block before or after.

So guests looking for longer stays will run into the problem of all the weekend nights being booked up, and guests looking for shorter stays will have easier or harder times depending on how many orphan nights their preferred dates will yield.  On shorter stays, shifting your check-in day just a day can help. On longer stays, dividing them into two or even three shorter stays can help.

The best approach, though, is to book well in advance. Historically, people have most commonly booked their Disney World vacations three months ahead.  The more ahead of this you can book your rooms, the better off you will be.  More than 180 days before is the magic number…but even if it’s closer than that, as soon as possible is better than later!

Another way to ease the burden is to use a travel agent, who likely will have both more patience and more ideas for finding you a room. This site has partnered for years with Kelly, who you can reach at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499.

Quarter to quarter, Disney’s recent average occupancy* has been between 85 and 90% for a while (the red line is 85%):

On a four-quarter trailing moving average basis (which cleans out the effects of seasonality), it’s been around 90% for seven quarters in a row (red line is 90% occupancy):

The difference between 85% and 95% occupancy is about 2,540 more rooms filled per night—or, at an average of 3 people per room, about 8,000 more people.

Eight thousand more people divided among four theme parks, two water parks, Universal, Sea World, Disney Springs, days off, etc. just don’t much matter to a set of theme parks that have a base average of more than 147,000 visitors a day anyway.

(This is the same reason that the cheering competitions, runDisney events, etc., don’t much matter to park crowding. Fifteen thousand cheerleaders or runners and family members may seem like a lot to you…but translate into less than 10 percent more people on property.)

Here’s the longer answer.

WHY THE DISNEY HOTELS ARE NOT A CROWD CALENDAR

Crowds at Disney World don’t come from the Disney hotels, which are almost always close to full. They come from hotels outside the parks.

On an average day in 2016, there were 147,000 people in one of the four Disney World theme parks. (Math applied to this.) You can convert those into required hotel rooms by making assumptions about

• People per room (e.g. 3) and
• Rooms occupied by those not in a Disney theme park that day: people in a hotel room for a Disney World vacation but taking a day off from the four Disney theme parks and instead going to a water park, Disney Springs, Universal, taking a day at the pool, shopping, or skipping the parks on their arrival night)—I’ll use 25% as my assumption on this.

So divide the 147,000 people in the parks on an average day by three people per room and you get 49,000 required rooms; shift this by another 25% for the folk on a Disney-oriented vacation but not in a Disney park that day and you get 65,000 required rooms.

Disney World itself right now has “only” about 25,400 rooms available, and probably can’t hit much above 95% occupancy for any sustained period (at 95% occupancy rooms are booked 19 out of every 20 nights) except in the rarest of circumstances, because even with the new orphan night policy, there aren’t enough two and one-night stays to fill in the tiny gaps that exist between 95% and 100% occupancy.

At 90% occupancy Disney World can serve just 22,900 of the 65,000 needed rooms—just a little more than a third.

Occupancy at the Disney hotels doesn’t flex up and down much with crowds. Rather, Disney runs its price seasons and its deals to hit a fairly high level of average occupancy year round. Hotels fill up in the highest-crowd times, but they also fill up during the rest of the year too–including times when savvy Disney World visitors (the most likely to occupy a Disney space—especially DVC owners) know are great times to visit—like early December!!

In other words, the crowds don’t come from Disney World hotels. They just don’t flex enough. Rather, they come from off-property folk. So full Disney World hotels don’t necessarily mean high crowds. (They can mean that—it’s just that they don’t necessarily do so.)

Want a real crowd calendar?  See this.

*This is Disney’s domestic occupancy, so it does include the three Anaheim hotels, which make up about 10% of total rooms. Because it’s just 10%, I ignore them, except that I do substract them to get rooms available in Florida.

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Welcome back to Fridays with Jim Korkis! Jim, the dean of Disney historians, writes about Walt Disney World history every Friday on yourfirstvisit.net.

REVISITING THE ITALY PAVILION

By Jim Korkis

Two massive columns can be found in the Piazzetta di San Marco in Venice, Italy. On top of the western column is a statue of Saint Theodore of Amasea slaying a dragon, and on top of the eastern column is a winged lion, a symbol closely associated with Saint Mark, the patron saint of the city. At different times, each of these saints were each considered the guardian of the city.

(c) Disney

The winged lion has become the symbol of Venice and is also represented on the side of the Doge’s Palace. Public executions and legal gambling took place between the two columns. These famous columns have been duplicated in a smaller scale version for the entrance of the Italian pavilion in Epcot’s World Showcase.

Most towns across Italy were built around piazzas or town squares where people could mingle, interact and do their daily business. At this pavilion, there is the Piazza del Teatro (Theater Plaza) where a raised circular stage was built to showcase performances by groups like a street theater Commedia Dell Arte troupe known as the World Showcase Players and an instrumental group called Rondo Veneziano.

Surrounding the piazza is a wall. At the far end was the giardino, or garden, and behind the wall, Imagineers planted olive, cypress, pine and date palms on mounds to give the impression of an Italian provincial countryside that continued on forever and to hide the backstage perimeter road.

The planted trees were of varying ages to try to give the forest an authentic look. Originally there were plans for a gondola dark ride in this area that for budgetary and time restrictions was eliminated as the pavilion was being built.

To the right hand side of the wall is an ornamental gate, flanked by columns constructed from capitals of various designs. It is meant to look as if someone took the capitals from ancient ruins and piled one on top of the other to create this feature.

It was the intention of the Imagineers that this location was going to include replicas of Roman ruins. When budgetary issues resulted in that plan being abandoned, the designers adapted part of those features to build the gate. The columns look as if they’ve been constructed from the relics of other columns because they were originally designed to represent ruins.

The wall is overflowing with grape vines to represent Italy’s wine industry, one of the largest producers in the world.

(c) Disney

Fountains can be found everywhere in Italy and many of them were designed by the nation’s most prominent artists. The Fontana di Nettuno (Neptune’s Fountain) in the pavilion is inspired by the sculpture work of Gian Lorenzo Bernini and such fountains as Rome’s Fontana del Nettuno, sculpted by Giovanni Ceccarini.

The fountain exemplifies the massive and elaborate style of many Italian fountains. It features the sea-god from Roman mythology accompanied by two dolphin companions who act as his messengers. The statue was framed with rebar and then sprayed with gunite (a mixture of cement, sand and water) to look like stone.

Those same dolphin designs can be found on other areas of Disney property from the door handles at the Doge’s Palace, to the ones at the Beach Club Resort that lead outside, to the enormous statues on top of the Dolphin Resort.

The water in this fountain is propelled through the dolphins’ mouths by a pump concealed within the structure behind it.

The coloring of the pavilion features delicate hues that are distinctive to Italy. A warm palette of shades of pink, reds, oranges, and yellow abound on the buildings and even the pottery.

*  *  *  *  *

Thanks, Jim!  And here’s more on Italy from The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2018:

Come back next Friday for more from Jim Korkis!

In the meantime, check out his books, including his latest, Secret Stories of Disneyland, and his Secret Stories of Walt Disney World: Things You Never You Never Knew, which reprints much material first written for this site, all published by Theme Park Press.

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DISNEY WORLD NEXT WEEK: OCTOBER 7 TO OCTOBER 15, 2017

The material below details next week’s Disney World operating hours, Extra Magic Hours, parades, and fireworks.

For more on October 2017 at Disney World, see this.

OPERATING HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 10/7-10/15/17

The Magic Kingdom will be open 8a-12MN 10/7 and 10/8, 8a-7p 10/9 and 10/10, 8a-12MN 10/11, 8a-7p 10/12 and 10/13, 8a-12MN 10/14,  and 8a-7p 10/15

Epcot will be open from 9a-10p 10/7,  9a-9p 10/8 through 10/12, 9a-10p 10/13 and 10/14, and 9a-9p 10/15

Disney’s Hollywood Studios will be open 9a-9p 10/7, 9a-8.30p 10/8 through 10/14, and 9a-8p 10/15

Disney’s Animal Kingdom will be open 9a-9.30p 10/7, 9a-9p 10/8, 9a-9.30p 10/9, 9a-9p 10/10 through 10/13, 9a-9.30p 10/14, and 9a-9p 10/15

EXTRA MAGIC HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 10/7-10/15/17

Saturday 10/7 Morning:  Animal Kingdom Evening: none

Sunday 10/8  Morning:  Hollywood Studios  Evening: none

Monday 10/9 Morning: Animal Kingdom  Evening: none

Tuesday 10/10 Morning: none Evening:  Epcot

Wednesday 10/11 Morning: none  Evening:  Magic Kingdom

Thursday 10/12 Morning: Epcot Evening: none

Friday 10/13 Morning:  Magic Kingdom Evening: none

Saturday 10/14 Morning: Animal Kingdom Evening: none

Sunday 10/15  Morning: Hollywood Studios Evening: none

PARADES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 10/7-10/15/17

The Magic Kingdom: Afternoon Festival of Fantasy Parade: 2p every day

FIREWORKS AND EVENING SHOWS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 10/7-10/15/17

Happily Every After at Magic Kingdom: 9p 10/7, 10/8, 10/11 and 10/14

IllumiNations at Epcot:  10p 10/7, 9p 10/8 through 10/12, 10p 10/13 and 10/14, and 9p 10/15

Fantasmic at Disney’s Hollywood Studios: 8p 10/7 through 10/14; 7.30p 10/15

Star Wars Show and Fireworks at Disney’s Hollywood Studios:  8.30p 10/7 through 10/14; 8p 10/15

Rivers of Light at Disney’s Animal Kingdom 8 and 9.15p 10/7 through 10/14; 7.45 and 9p 10/15

SHOW SCHEDULES FOR WALT DISNEY WORLD 10/7-10/15/17

See Steve Soares’ site here. Click the park names at its top for show schedules.

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Mission: SPACE opened in Epcot’s Future World in 2003. Offering tight-fitting ride vehicles equipped with screens showing a film of a journey to Mars with systems that rotated them up and down and spun them in a centrifuge, it combined a breakthrough thrill ride into outer space with severe motion sickness potential and some really bad press.

The bad press came from a couple of deaths in the early days. Each was from a rider with pre-existing conditions, which, if known about, should have led the riders to exclude themselves from this ride.

As a result, Disney flooded the ride with warnings, and, in 2006, opened a version that left out the centrifuge. The original version was relabeled as the “Orange” side, and the new version the “Green” side. The Green side still has movement, but has next to no prospect of motion sickness, and without the centrifuge and the 2.5gs of acceleration that came from it, much less risk for those with pre-existing conditions.

The result was rides for almost everyone—the Orange version for thrill-seekers in good health with no propensity to motion sickness, and the Green side for nearly everyone else (there are still some health warnings even for the Green side).

In August of 2017 Disney added new films to both sides of Mission: SPACE. The Orange side still is the same mission to Mars, but with a better set of images—which may reduce the motion sickness potential. The Green Side got an entirely new film, of a mission around Earth.

The Earth mission takes off from Florida…

… flies around the world…

…and returns to Florida in a thunderstorm with some other complexities that I won’t give away.

The screen images in this post are all from the new Earth mission, which I had the chance to ride in late September.

Because of the different films, there are now in effect two different rides here using the same ride vehicles, but with much different degrees of motion sickness and other risks. This is great for those who want to do both rides, but the new Earth film is a bit of a letdown–the new visuals are just not that interesting. Soarin’ Around the World has a largely similar concept, to much better effect.

While my basic advice is that anyone with even the least concern about motion sickness or any health issues should ride the Green Earth version, and then do Orange Mars if they dare once they have a better sense of what they are getting into, they should do so knowing that the actual mission of the Mars side is more interesting.

Here’s the review of the new Mission: SPACE from The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2018 (yes, unlike some 800 page alternatives, our book is actually up-to-date enough to include it):

My co-author Josh also has a review of the Green Earth side here.

It’s also worth noting that while the Orange Mars side still has a minimum height of 44 inches, the Green Earth Side now has a minimum of 40 inches—although those between 40 inches and 44 inches will need to use a booster seat—and the ride might be little dull for them.

There are also fun and interesting games at the exit—which you can do without entering the ride system at all.

For those who can take it, the Orange Mars side is one of the best thrill rides at Disney World. The Green Earth side is more skippable. See it—but do so as a test of whether you think you can handle the Orange side…

Another option would be simply to buy a copy of Gray Malin’s Escape and hold the images in it really close to your eyes while putting a rocking chair through its paces…

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DISNEY WORLD DEALS FOR EARLY 2018

Today, after some troubles with Disney’s IT system, three Disney World deals for early 2018 came out.

Kelly can book you into the best of these deals for your plans—she’s been the travel agent partner of this site for years. To book your vacation through her, contact her at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499. (If you’ve already booked with Kelly, she’s been busy this morning trying to get the best deal for you!)

ROOM RATE DEAL FOR EARLY 2018

The room rate deal covers most dates from January 1, 2018 through April 14. Discounts vary by resort and resort class, and are not available in all booking categories.

• At the values, Little Mermaid Rooms at Art of Animation are excluded. All-Star Movies is 10% off, and the others are 15% off.
• At the moderates, Port Orleans Riverside and Port Orleans French Quarter are 10% off, and the rest are 20% off.
• At the deluxes, the Contemporary, Polynesian Village, and Wilderness Lodge are 10% off, and the rest are 25% off.
• At the DVC resorts, Bay Lake Tower, the Villas at the Grand Floridian, and Bungalows at the Polynesian are excluded. Old Key West, Saratoga Springs, and the BoardWalk Villas are 25% off. The other DVC resorts are 10% off.

Reports are that Disney Visa holders can call to get additional savings, but I haven’t been able to document the full extent of this yet.

This deal needs to be booked by January 2.

Disney’s page on this deal is here, and you can reach Kelly at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499.

PLAY STAY AND DINE PACKAGE FOR EARLY 2018

The Play Stay and Dine package offers savings of of a combined room, ticket and dining plan package. It covers most arrival dates from January 1 through March 10 and needs to be booked by December 22.

Disney’s website hopes for savings of $300-$500 based on its examples, but as with the next deal, actual savings are hard to calculate without test-booking some reservations. The basic concept seems to be savings of 40-45% off the dining plan–quick service at the values, and regular at the other resort types–plus maybe a bit more at the deluxes. This can be the best deal for larger parties at the moderates in particular.

Excluded from this deal are

• Little Mermaid rooms at Art of Animation
• Fort Wilderness campsites
• Bungalows at the Polynesians and Cabins at Copper Creek at the Wilderness Lodge

Disney’s page on this deal is here, and you can reach Kelly at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499.

FAMILY MAGIC PACKAGE FOR EARLY 2018

The Family Magic Package deal covers most dates from January 1, 2018 through April 14. Discounts vary by resort and resort class, and are not available in all booking categories. The “example” discounts shown on Disney’s page on this deal exclude the highest-priced dates.

Actual savings are very hard to calculate without running actual reservations through the system. The best way to choose is to try each option and pick the one with the best savings. You also want to compare your offer with the lowest-priced undiscounted rooms, as these offers recently have put you into higher-priced rooms. This is where a travel agent like Kelly is a godsend.

It looks like the following resorts/room types are excluded from the Family Magic Deal:

• Little Mermaid rooms at Art of Animation
• Fort Wilderness campsites
• Bungalows at the Polynesians and Cabins at Copper Creek at the Wilderness Lodge

This deal needs to be booked by January 2.

Disney’s page on this deal is here, and you can reach Kelly at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499.

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OVERVIEW: MARCH 2018 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews March 2018 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

The first week of March can be a great time to go to Disney World, and is so in 2018, up until March 9. The rest of the month will be lousy–with high prices and high crowds.

[Read more →]