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Hey, this deal has been released. See this!

ROOM RATE AND FREE DAY DEAL TO COME OUT JANUARY 6?

Expectations are high that a room rate and small ticket deal for April 20-June 15, 2014 will come out for the general public Monday January 6.

Reports this morning are that this deal is already available to Disney Visa cardholders.

The deal seems to include not only a room rate discount, but also one free ticket day after a minimum buy: e.g. buy 4 days, and get the 5th free.

I don’t have any more specifics, but as I learn them–or my buddy Joe Black tells me them–I’ll pass them along!

HOW TO SCREW THIS DEAL UP

Well-meaning but inept advice is showing up here and there that non-Visa people–that is, the rest of us–should book now to “lock in your room,” and then convert your room to the deal later.

Deals don’t work this way.  You are competing for the inventory of the deal with everyone else, whether or not you already have a room.

So booking before the deal does not help you one bit in getting the deal once it comes out.

Moreover, the more who book now, the less pressure there is to have a deal at all–so booking now may reduce the number of rooms made available, or even narrow the dates offered.

So don’t book now, unless you plan to go with or without the deal!!

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2014 AT DISNEY WORLD

The big news for Disney World in 2014 will be

• The continuing roll-out of FastPass+
• The opening of the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train sometime in the “spring,” and
• The impact on Disney of Universal’s expansions

FASTPASS+ IN 2014

FastPass+ continues to be a moving target.  Right now, guests at Disney’s hotels can make reservations for FastPass+ beginning 60 days before their arrival date, everyone at the Animal Kingdom can only use FastPass+ (off-site guests make their reservations that day) and the Swan and Dolphin are in a test.

Over 2014 I expect to see FastPass+ for all extended to the other parks, and for the other parks likely to also restrict the number of headliners per day available (already in place at Epcot and Hollywood Studios).

So far, FastPass+ has been a good thing for first-timers staying in Disney-owned resort hotels, and a bit rough on everybody else–especially repeat visitors who have an already set way of doing the parks on the old FastPass system.

See this for more on FastPass+…

THE OPENING OF THE SEVEN DWARFS MINE TRAIN

The final element if the Fantasyland Expansion, the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, is expected to open in the “spring” of 2014.

This ride, while targeted at the younger set, oughta be fun for everybody.

I haven’t seen any credible rumors on opening besides “spring.”

Spring, to the Wall Street analysts who track these things even closer than bloggers, means March 20 to June 21. Earlier in this window would add capacity for the massive spring break crowds and give Disney something to sell in the slower month of May; later would add capacity for the summer crowds.

My guess?  With FastPass+ so far behind, Disney really needs this ride to be open soon.  So I’d expect it to be open earlier in the spring rather than later…

THE IMPACT OF UNIVERSAL ON DISNEY

Two big things are happening at Universal this year: Harry Potter is expanding from Islands of Adventure into Universal Studios, and Universal is opening its first mid/lower priced hotel, Cabana Bay.

While the Harry Potter Diagon Alley expansion gets the attention, it’s the hotel–which will eventually have 1,800 rooms–that might have the bigger impact on Disney World–and thus Disney guests.

The economics of this are complicated, but here’s the key points:

• The Universal theme parks aren’t really substitutes for the WDW parks so much as they are complements.  Increased numbers of visitors drawn to Orlando because of Harry Potter will, in high proportions, show up at Disney World too. And even if people substitute time at Disney parks for time at Harry Potter, what that typically costs Disney is the lower-priced last days of a ticket.
• Hotels, on the other hand, are indeed substitutes. Someone staying at one is not also paying for another…And the economics of hotels (with their low per-room incremental variable costs) are such that lost revenues–from people shifting from e.g. All-Star Sports and Caribbean Beach to Universal–drop almost directly to the bottom line. Lost food and gift shop revenues have higher variable costs, but still have a bottom line impact.

So while Disney might lose $25 to $50 million on lost park ticket sales from Harry Potter, if Cabana Bay fills entirely at Disney’s expense, the bottom line impact could easily be $100 to $125 million.

The upshot?  If Cabana Bay is wildly successful, look for Disney to increase the value of staying on-site–either by more aggressive deal-making than I am currently foreseeing, much better FastPass+ for onsite guests than off, or both…

MORE ON DISNEY WORLD IN 2014

Here’s more on Disney World in 2014, including

• Disney World 2014 packages and booking dates
• 2014 Disney World deals
• 2014 Disney Armed Forces Salute
• Free Dining in 2014 at Disney World
• The best weeks of 2014 to visit
• 2014 crowds at Disney World

DISNEY WORLD PACKAGES FOR 2014

 You can find 2014 Disney World price seasons here.

You can book a Disney World hotel room up to 500 days in advance. That means you can book all of 2014 on-line, and later dates over the phone.

DISNEY WORLD DEALS IN 2014

Walt Disney World offers specials, discounts, packages deals, and other deals only when, based on its booking rates, it believes it can profitably bump demand by doing so.

The windows it provides for such deals seem to range from a month to nine months ahead. Given this, the more the economy seems to be doing OK, the shorter the notice for these deals likely will be.

As deals launch, you’ll find them here.

For Disney World 2014 military deals and 2014 free dining at Walt Disney World, see below.

DISNEY WORLD MILITARY DISCOUNTS IN 2014

Disney World has announced special discounts for Military families for most of 2014.  See this for more. There’s no telling if this deal will be extended into FY15, or if so, when such an extension will be announced.

FREE DINING AT DISNEY WORLD IN 2014

There’s no guarantee Disney will offer the Disney Dining Plan for free in 2014.

If it does, based on past dates, Disney will most likely offer more free dining in 2014 for much of September, and announce it in the late spring or early summer of 2014.

BEST WEEKS TO VISIT DISNEY WORLD IN 2014

For the best times to visit Disney World in 2014, see 2014 weeks to visit, ranked in order.

A few observations (all reflected in the 2014 week rankings):

• New Year’s Eve 2014 is midweek, so there will be fewer lower-crowd days in January.
• Easter, April 20, 2014, is about as late as it can be, meaning more good late March and early April dates than usual.
• Thanksgiving 2014 is November 27th, almost as late as it can be, meaning more good November days and fewer good December days.

CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD IN 2014

See the 2014 Disney World Crowd Calendar.

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the next best dates, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2014 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2014 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2014 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2015 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2014 price seasons, see this
  • For projected 2015 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

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So this is the time of year when I thank you guys—the readers.

Once again you came by in droves—a new record of well over two million of you—and I can tell by your comments that I helped several.

We have a deal. I write stuff, hoping to be useful or interesting, and you read it, hoping to be helped or intrigued.

And while we each end a little disappointed in me, even so you come back, you tell your friends, you like the site on Facebook, you pin it on Pinterest… so thanks!!!

But there are other people who help too, and this year I thought I’d spend a little time thanking them as well.

There’s a lot of writers of Disney World sites out there—all you need these days is blogging software, and a copy of The Unofficial Guide—but some are good, expert, helpful and supportive.

That’s who I want to celebrate—and thank—today.

Then I get a little sidetracked at the end…

THANKS TO THE DISNEY FAN WRITING COMMUNITY

Steve Bell of Military Disney Tips became the site’s official moderator of military family questions and comments in January. Steve had been playing this role unofficially for years, and is my best friend in the Disney blogger community, so I was thrilled!

Chip Confer’s Chip and Company posted a review of the site in April, and it does a much better job of explaining it than my “about” page!

Steve Seifert of TikimanPages.com (a site devoted to Disney’s Polynesian Resort) and I have had a loose collaboration over the years; we had a near miss at the Poly in May, but did work together to (perhaps temporarily) agree on the square footage of the Poly rooms!

In June, Len Testa of the Unofficial Guide, TouringPlans, etc., etc,. brought me on to the WDW Today podcast where we talked about Disney World for first time visitors who may never return.

Also in June, Adrienne Vincent-Phoenix of MousePlanet.com and I sort of agreed that I’d become the “first timer questions” columnist for MousePlanet—Adrienne wrote that this was a “fantastic column idea.” Nothing ever came of this (I’m guessing that the stark specificity of my advice put her team off, but honestly I dunno), but it was fun to think about while it lasted!

In July Joe Black of Disney by Joe and I collaborated on a disboards thread (well, it was mostly Joe) that, after some drama, won “Thread of the Month.”

In August, Carl Trent of Dad’s Guide to WDW reached out to see if I’d be the first-time visitor writer for his brand new WDW Magazine. Carl and I have collaborated over the years—he’s been a big help to the site—and he owes me breakfast. So I was delighted to pitch in and help!

Steve Bell and I had a little overlap in our November visits, so we took advantage of that to jointly do each of our first-ever fan meet-ups. (Doing it jointly meant that each of us would have at least one fan!)

It went astonishingly well—thanks to all who showed up, and the team from Destinations in Florida who helped out, especially Leah!

On that same trip, I spent a lot of time with Josh of easyWDW.com. I’ve owed him lunch for years (he took me to Liberty Tree Tavern a few years ago) so I took him to San Angel Inn, showed him my Grand Floridian villa, and chatted.

Both of us agree that the right way to do a Disney World site is to present original content arising out of direct experiences, personal original research or distinctive sources, and we vented our frustration to each other about sites that prep their WDW material by reading other people’s work and basically rewriting—that is, copying–it. Oh, well.

Josh and Lisa also showed up at the meet-up, which sent Twitter aloft…Steve, Josh, Lisa, Leah and I then wandered the Magic Kingdom together.

I was back at Disney World in December for the third FastPass+ test. This was so far as I can recall my seventh Disney World visit of 2013.

While there, Jodi of Magical Mouse Schoolhouse and I did another joint meet-up! This could get to be a habit…

I first met Jodi through the Magical Blogorail gang—a group of Disney bloggers who collaborate to post on similar topics each month.

I’ve been part of the Blogorail for years now, and the people in it have been a great source of help and silliness. Because of some changes to the Blogorail for the new year, I’ll be leaving it, but with fond memories and gratitude!

On that same visit, I got to meet in person the great Disney World pinner Linda Stevens-Jones.

She and I had collaborated already both on Facebook and over the phone (and she pins a ton from here, thanks Linda!!), but it was great to connect with her and Dan in person!

So thanks, everybody!

AND I MISS YOU

And on a different, sadder, and even more grateful note…thanks, Mom and Annie…

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(For the first page of this review of the Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian, click here.)

SERVICES AND AMENITIES AT THE VILLAS AT DISNEY’S GRAND FLORIDIAN RESORT & SPA

The Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort are in a smaller 5-6 story T-shaped building at the south end of the property.

See the map, where they are at the bottom right.

To get to them by car, turn right after the security gate, and park behind the spa Senses. This is much more convenient than the lousy self-parking at the main Grand Floridian Resort

The lot requires a key card or MagicBand, and has an intercom to request it be opened when you arrive for check-in and don’t yet have either.

On the walkway between the lot and the Villas building is this grill and picnic area.

There’s two paths to the main Grand Floridian–this covered path, most convenient for accessing the monorail, bus stop and main lobby…

…and a path along the shore that goes straight to the Beach Pool and beach…

…main pool…

…and the dining and shops in the Grand Floridian–newly stocked with much more food–convenient for the full kitchens in the Villas.

Inside the building itself you’ll find this lobby, with check in and concierge services at the desks–though I’ve heard from some that check-in is not always available…so if you are driving, ask at the security gate…

By the way–I’ve also seen complaints that this lobby is “too small.”

Compared to what? The majority of DVC properties have no lobby at all, and this is comparable to those at the much bigger Kidani Village and Bay Lake Tower…

Also in the first floor public area is a penguin fountain……framed by other sculpture.

This meant to be reminiscent of Mary Poppins, but is far too subtle.  Me?  It just makes me think of SeaWorld.

Much more fun is the lighting above the fountain…

…especially when shot from the sixth floor.

Other interior decoration at the Grand Floridian is fluffy, but not so fussy as at the main resort. Note the carpet and wall detailing.

One somewhat off-note comes from the wall art in the common areas–most of which celebrates the Grand Floridian itself.

The Grand Floridian is Disney World’s most expensive resort, but it’s never been among the best loved or iconic hotels there…so the self-celebratory tone doesn’t work that well…

But despite these nits, the Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian is a very impressive accomplishment. The floor plans in every room type are innovative and/or break new ground among DVC options at Walt Disney World, with really only Old Key West challenging them on the livability front.

But Old Key West is much weaker on resort amenities and convenience.  Since the Villas at the Grand Floridian share in the great amenities at the Grand Floridian itself, overall it becomes a top choice for families who don’t care much about its lack of distinctive kid appeal.  

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There’s three deals for Disney World right now covering various dates into April 2014.

These all have “book-by” dates of December 31, 2013, so if you are interested in one of these deals, you need to book now!

For more on these deals, see this.

I expect a new Disney World room rate deal covering late April, May, and perhaps longer to come out in early January 2014, but haven’t got any credible rumors to share about such a deal…

DISNEY WORLD NEXT WEEK: DECEMBER 28 TO JANUARY 5, 2014

The material below details operating hours, Extra Magic Hours, parades, and fireworks.

The same stuff is in the image, but organized by park, not by topic.

For more on New Year’s Eve at Walt Disney World, see this.

And for more on December 2013 at Disney World, see this, and more on January 2014, see this.

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