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DISNEY WORLD CROWDS AND THE PRO BOWL

In 2017 for the first time Orlando will be hosting the NFL’s Pro Bowl, on January 29. The game itself will be in downtown Orlando’s “Camping World” Stadium, which some of you may remember as the Citrus Bowl, but Disney World–especially, but not only the ESPN Wide World of Sports area–will be heavily involved.

According to NFL.com,

“Practices will be held at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex at Walt Disney World Resort simultaneously with youth football events and a fan fest…There will be a Pro Bowl-themed 5K run, a parade of Pro Bowl players in the Magic Kingdom and Pro Bowl-themed elements throughout Disney Springs, Disney’s newest entertainment and dining destination.”

This is a new thing, so there is no track record to base crowd predictions on. Wide World of Sports–and the roads near it–will be mobbed during the fan events the days before the game, as will also, I’d guess, the Magic Kingdom on the as-yet unannounced day of the parade there.

Predicting resulting overall Disney World crowd levels the weeks before and after the game is a little harder.

• First, the Pro Bowl itself is not much of a destination event. The announced figure of “at least” $30 million economic impact on the Orlando area implies at the low end just 10,000 to 20,000 incremental people in Orlando from the Pro Bowl (based on rules of thumb about the value of an out of town visitor I learned at one of my clients), which is nothing when spread across all of Orlando’s attractions.
• However, the Pro Bowl has never been held in collaboration with Disney World and ESPN before, so it and more importantly its fan fest might end up being a real draw to people from out of town.
• It may especially be a draw for folks within easy driving distance–the Orlando area itself, of course, and Jacksonville and Tampa–to combine a day or two at the fan fest and at the theme parks. (The “easy drive” might even include the arc from Mobile through Atlanta to Charleston, and all of South Florida as well.)

We won’t really know until after it happens, but we can say for sure that the Disney World hotels will likely be booked solid the week before and perhaps a few days after the game, and that the parks will likely be somewhat more crowded than I’d predicted before the Pro Bowl was announced.

My original crowd forecasts for the week leading up to and the week after the Pro Bowl weekends were both 1/lowest crowds. Because the only number I have is the quite low $30 million in incremental economic impact, I’m not raising these a lot.  In my 2017 Disney World crowd calendar, I am now forecasting the week before the game as 4/low+ crowds, and the week after as 2/lower crowds.

DISNEY WORLD PRESIDENTS DAY CROWDS

Based on the comments I get on this site, year after year one of the things that most surprises people is how crowded the week of Presidents Day is at Walt Disney World.

Most schools just have one day off–the Monday holiday.

However, even so, lots of other school kids have a four or five day weekend (Thursday or Friday to Monday, or Saturday to Tuesday or Wednesday).

Even more have the whole week that includes Presidents Day off. Most of the latter are from the Northeast, and really, really need a break from the snow and cold…and thus the massive crowds that week at Disney World!

See the left side of chart, which shows the proportion of the 15.4 million kids in my 2016-2017 school year calendar database with more than a three day weekend over President’s Day:

In 2016 Presidents Day is February 20th, shown in red.

Breaks begin the Thursday before, and continue at high levels through the rest of the week.

In my 2017 crowd calendar I have the week that includes Presidents Day rated as 10/higher crowds.  Expect the highest crowds Friday through Tuesday, and high crowds the rest of the week.

MARDI GRAS CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Mardi Gras, February 28 in 2017 and in red on the right side of the chart, is the opposite. My commentors worried about it tend to come from the very few southeastern areas that have a multi-day holiday around it. But hardly anyone else does.

So Mardi Gras has little effect on February crowds unless it falls (as it did in 2015) the day after Presidents Day, in which case it makes a lousy week even more horrible.

In my 2017 crowd calendar I have the week that includes Mardi Gras rated as 4/low+ minus. This rating combines moderate crowds at the beginning of this week from leftover Presidents Day folk, a runDisney event, and Mardi Gras itself, with quite low crowds later in the week.

(For how these charts are built, see this.)

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Welcome back to Fridays with Jim Korkis! Jim, the dean of Disney historians and author of Jim’s Gems in The easy Guide, writes about Walt Disney World history every Friday on yourfirstvisit.net.

SNOW WHITE AT THE GAMBLE HOUSE

By Jim Korkis

Some Disney treasures are not on Disney property. Here is a secret that is not found in any other Disney travel guide or website.

In the deep forest of eastern Volusia County alongside the dark waters of Spruce Creek is a charming cottage of fantasy architecture known as the Snow White House that is virtually unknown to Disney fans. It is located off Taylor Road, roughly two miles west of I-95.

The tiny cypress-and-pine home is furnished with a miniature stairway that leads to a mock dwarfs’ bedroom marked by seven little headboards. Bookshelves set atop cypress knees and gnarled wood handles adorn the Gothic wood doors.

Surrounding the house are fantasy features such as a Witch’s Hut, dwarfs’ mine shaft and wishing well, all connected by field-stone paths.

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (1937) was a milestone animated feature film that captured the hearts and imagination of many people when it was first released.

Judge Alfred K. Nippert began building the Snow White House as a playhouse in 1938 for his nieces on the 150-acre hunting and fishing retreat that he inherited from his father-in-law, James N. Gamble, of Procter and Gamble.

The Gamble estate includes acres of forest, a Cracker-style lodge, a citrus packing house, azalea garden and trails through a hardwood swamp. It was donated in 1983 to the Nature Conservancy and is a historical and environmental preserve open to the public for tours by reservation.

The Daytona Beach Museum manages the Gamble place for the Conservancy with financial help from the Junior League of Daytona Beach. Tours of Gamble Place are arranged by appointment only through the Daytona Beach Museum of Arts and Sciences, (904) 255-0285.

Like so many others, the young girls loved Snow White and Nippert got carried away once the project started.

Nippert hired local carpenter Ernie Whidmeir, who prepared himself for the task by studying twenty animation cells from the film obtained from the Disney Studio and by repeatedly viewing the movie.

Because of Nippert’s social connections including supposedly a friendship with Walt Disney himself, he was able to obtain the celluloids for the carpenter to use as an architectural guide and create workable blueprints. A nearly full-scale replica was completed with heavy Gothic doors featuring huge authentic strap hinges and an enormous fireplace.

The cottage was completed in March 1938. Nippert invited Walt Disney to visit, and reportedly, he did.

Walt was so pleased and amazed at the detailed work that captured the fairy-tale quaintness of the film that upon his return to California, he gifted Nippert with eight life-sized dolls of Snow White and each of the Seven Dwarfs.

Snow White was displayed in the parlor in a glass coffin that Nippert had built to look like the crystal tomb in the movie. The seven Dwarf dolls were put in various corners of the room to keep a watchful eye on the sleeping little princess as they awaited the arrival of the prince and true love’s kiss.

But the dolls disappeared between the time the Nippert family closed the estate in the 1940s and the Nature Conservancy took it over in the early 1980s.

During a restoration in the early 1990s, Dana Ste. Claire and his wife, Carol, lived in the Snow White House for two years, working in their free time to restore the landmark and have furnished it with their own antiques. After they finished, they moved out.

”We’re going to try to get the Disney folks interested in this . . . they might come over a do a little film about the house,” Dana Ste. Claire said at the time but that never happened and this little gem has been hidden from Disney fans for many years

Except for special events open to the public, tours of Gamble Place are arranged by appointment only through the Daytona Beach Museum of Arts and Sciences, (904) 255-0285. So the next time you decide to go “off property” to explore some of the many other offerings of Central Florida, you may want to include this little known Disney related treasure.

*  *  *  *  *

Thanks, Jim! And come back next Friday for even more from Jim Korkis!

In the meantime, check out his books, including Secret Stories of Walt Disney World: Things You Never You Never Knew, which reprints much material first written for this site, and The Vault of Walt: Volume 4, and his contributions to The easy Guide to Your First Walt Disney World Visit, all published by Theme Park Press.

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DISNEY WORLD CROWDS FROM LATER DECEMBER 2016 TO EARLY JANUARY 2017

Disney World sees its highest crowds and prices of the year in the later third of December and the beginning of January, in the weeks around Christmas and New Year’s Eve.

This is for a pretty basic reason: kids are out of school then.

However, not every school district has the same break schedule.

In 2016, as always, there’s more kids out the week between Christmas and New Year’s week than before or after, but there’s still plenty enough on break before Christmas week to wildly crowd the parks. The week after New Years in 2017 has many more kids on break than usual, so I expect it to be crowded too, especially the first part of the week.

SCHOOL BREAKS AND DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Most years, there two typical sorts of breaks:

• Long breakers–districts that take at least 2 full weeks (and three weekends) off
• Short breakers–districts that take off as close to only December 24 to January 1 as they can

As a result, the period Christmas-New Years is always mobbed at Disney World, as everyone is out of school then, but the periods before and after vary from year to year depending on what day of the week Christmas falls.

In 2016, a Sunday Christmas put long-break districts in the position having to pick when to schedule their second week–before Christmas weekend, or after New Years. Enough put it before Christmas that I expect to see heavy crowds that week, even with a lot of kids shifted to the first week of January

But their’s still a ton of kids in districts that picked the first week of January for the second week of their break.  As a result, in my 2017 Disney World crowd calendar I am shifting my former forecast of that week from “moderate” crowds to “high” crowds–particularly high early in the week, and better later in the week.

ACTUAL 2016-2017 CHRISTMAS SEASON SCHOOL BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including almost 280 of the largest relevant US public school districts with almost a third of total US school kids included.

(For how the database is built, see this.)

The weekends are in black and weekdays in blue.  Click the image enlarge it.

You can see that many breaks begin Saturday the 17th, with hardly any kids on break before then. More kids go on break beginning the 21st, and by the 24th everyone is on break.

Pretty much everybody stays out of school through January 2, 2017, and while most go back to school right after, almost 20% of US schoolkids remain on break through January 8.

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DISNEY WORLD NEXT WEEK: JULY 22 TO JULY 10, 2016

The material below details next week’s Disney World operating hours, Extra Magic Hours, parades, and fireworks.

Note that typos happen, and schedules change! If something seems odd, or if you want to double check, use the calendar links near the bottom to get the latest official Disney World scoop.

For more on July 2016 at Walt Disney World, see this.

OPERATING HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/2-7/10/2016

The Magic Kingdom will be open from 9a-11p 7/2, 9a-1a 7/3, 8a-1a 7/4, and 9a-11p 7/5 through 7/10

Epcot will be open from 9a-9p 7/2 and 7/3, 9a-10p 7/4, and 9a-9p 7/5 through 7/10

Disney’s Hollywood Studios will be open 9a-10p 7/2, 9a-9.30p 7/3 through 7/5, 9a-10p 7/6, and 9a-9.30p 7/7 through 7/10

Disney’s Animal Kingdom will be open 9a-11p every day

EXTRA MAGIC HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/2-7/10/2016

Saturday 7/2 Morning:  Animal Kingdom  Evening: none

Sunday 7/3 Morning:  none  Evening: Magic Kingdom

Monday 7/4 Morning: Animal Kingdom  Evening: none

Tuesday 7/5 Morning: none Evening:  Epcot

Wednesday 7/6 Morning:  Hollywood Studios  Evening:  none

Thursday 7/7 Morning: Epcot Evening: none

Friday 7/8 Morning:  Magic Kingdom Evening: Hollywood Studios

Saturday 7/9 Morning: Animal Kingdom  Evening: none

Sunday 7/10  Morning: Hollywood Studios Evening: none

PARADES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/2-7/10/2016

The Magic Kingdom:

• Afternoon Festival of Fantasy Parade: 3p  7/2; noon and 3.30p 7/3 and 7/4; 3p 7/5 through 7/10
• Evening Main Street Electrical Parade: 9 and 11p 7/2; 10.15p and 12.15a 7/3 and 7/4; 9 and 11p 7/5 through 7/10

FIREWORKS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/2-7/10/2016

Wishes at the Magic Kingdom: 10p 7/2 and 7/5 through 7/10

Special Fourth of July Fireworks: Magic Kingdom 9p 7/3 and 7/4

IllumiNations at Epcot: 9p 7/2 and 7/3; 10p 7/4; 9p 7/5 through 7/10

Fantasmic at Disney’s Hollywood Studios: 9p 7/2 through 7/5; 9 and 10.30p 7/6; 9p 7/7 through 7/10

Star Wars Fireworks at Disney’s Hollywood Studios: 9.45p 7/2; 9.30p 7/3 through 7/10

SHOW SCHEDULES FOR WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/2-7/10/2016

See Steve Soares’ site here. Click the park names at its top for show schedules.

LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST FOR WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/2-7/10/2016

See this for forecasts.

DISCLAIMER

Everything is subject to change and typos! Check the Disney Calendars for updates and official schedules. These calendars can be found by clicking the following links:

• Magic Kingdom Calendar
• Hollywood Studios Calendar
• Animal Kingdom Calendar
• Epcot Calendar

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FALL BREAK CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD?

One of the things you’ll see now and then on the web is the claim that “fall breaks from school create big crowds at Walt Disney World.”

“Fall breaks” are multi-day school holidays before Thanksgiving, and, if material, would have an effect on Disney World—because Disney World is most crowded when it’s easy for kids to go.

If you check the facts, though, you’ll find that fall breaks are both uncommon and scattered across October and early November—other than Jersey Week and the weeks before and including Columbus Day.

Outside of those three weeks, you are much more likely to run into trouble in the fall by choosing to go to the Magic Kingdom or Epcot on a bad day—

• Epcot on a weekend during Food and Wine,
• The Magic Kingdom on a day when Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party or Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party is not showing, and evening hours and entertainment offerings are thus more extensive.

See the chart, which shows the weighted percent of US school kids in my database with more than a three-day weekend in 2016 in October and in November before Thanksgiving week. (For how it’s built out of ~280 school districts and 15.4 million kids, see the middle of this.)

In it, weekends are in black, and Columbus Day and Veteran’s Day are in red. Everything else is blue.

The first conclusion you can draw is that the only time when more than 5% of kids are having more than a three day weekend is just before and then over the week that includes Columbus Day, and Jersey Week.

These are already known to be moderate crowd weeks so as a “fall break” there’s no real news here.

Beyond those, there’s not a lot of material fall breaks.  Yes, you can see them every week shown, but not much–around 2% of kids.  There’s just not enough here to materially affect your choices as to when to go to Walt Disney World, other than Jersey Week and the weeks before and including Columbus Day.

Note: none of this is about Thanksgiving week, which is quite crowded and a lousy time to go!

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This site’s Disney World crowd calendars always show crowds dropping off in later August.

For example, in 2016, crowd rankings go from 8/high-minus at the beginning of August down to 2/lower in early September.

This page both explain how that comes about and also reviews how the site’s crowd calendars are built.

END OF SUMMER 2016 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The highest-crowd periods at Walt Disney World all have one thing in common: they are convenient times for parents to take their kids to Orlando. That is, they are times that kids are out of school and that parents traditionally can take off of work.

What’s not so clear until you do the numbers is that actual school vacation dates are much more varied than you’d think.  And there’s no good source you can go to that explains what all these varied dates are.

So usually every year about this time one of my nieces goes to more hundreds of school district websites and captures all the key vacation dates for the upcoming academic year. This year all of my nieces are distracted by babies, so I did this data collection myself.

(This time of year because you’d be surprised many districts don’t put their calendars up for the upcoming year until June, even late June–looking at you, Michigan.)

This year I collected data on 279 school districts with 15.4 million kids–about a third of the US school-age population. These include the 100 largest school districts in the U.S., plus almost 180 more of the next largest school districts mostly in the more highly-populated states east of the Mississippi–that is, the states from which in particular Walt Disney World draws its visitors.

I then create a database that shows based on district enrollment every kid who is off on every date, and weight each district them based on that district’s state’s proportion of total US visits to this website (because Disney won’t tell me actual visitation by state!). See the image above for a screenshot example.

Finally, I calculate percentage of total weighted kids on break by date and use that to inform the crowd calendars.

Above are the results of this for when kids go back to school in 2016.

So you can see that

• Kids don’t start going back to school in real numbers until Monday 8/8
• More than a third are back in school by 8/17
• More than half are back in school by 8/22 and
• More than 70% are back in school before Labor Day.

In 2016, pretty much all kids are back in school by the Wednesday after Labor Day.

Moreover, vacation patterns typically don’t have people returning from their vacation the night before school begins, so the effect of these back-to-school dates is offset into earlier August by around a week.

Thus, in the 2016 crowd calendar, the week of 7/30 is rated 8/high-minus crowds, the week of 8/6 7/moderate-plus crowds, the week of 8/13 6/moderate crowds and the week of 8/20 4/low crowds.

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