Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

2020 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The chart lower on the page shows my forecasts for 2020 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.

2020 will be an interesting year at Disney World, with the new land Galaxy’s Edge dominating the news early in the year, but after that other new rides opening, and Disney World beginning its 50th anniversary celebration later in the year.

More on 2020 at Walt Disney World is here.
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2020 RESORT PRICE SEASONS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The material below shows my forecast resort price seasons at Walt Disney World at different times of the year in 2020. My forecasts are based on recent Disney practice, and I will revise them once Disney World publishes its actual 2020 resort hotel prices—likely in the summer of 2019.

Resort prices can be almost twice as high during some periods as they are at others. My forecasts help you identify lower and higher cost periods.

My comparisons are to prices that are “the lowest of the year,” the value season.

Grouping of dates is based on “price seasons,” a grouping tool Disney World no longer makes public, but which can be identified analytically. Disney charges based on the actual price of the actual nights, so if your visit straddles price seasons, you’ll pay the prices of each price season.

(For more on 2020 at Disney World, see this. For 2019 price seasons, see this. For the basics on where to stay at Disney World, see this.)

2020 DISNEY WORLD FORECAST RESORT PRICE SEASONS: VALUE RESORTS

• The lowest prices of the year–the value season–begins 1/2/2020
• 20-30% higher prices–Marathon rates–begin 1/9/20
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/12/20
• 20-25% higher for the Martin Luther King Jr. long weekend begins 1/17/20
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/20/20
• 55-65% higher for the long Presidents Day weekend begins 2/13/20
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 2/17/20
• 20-30% higher–the regular season–begins 2/23/20
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 3/6/20
• 60-65% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/5/20
• 20-30% higher–the regular season 2–begins 4/19/20
• 45-50 higher over the Memorial Day long weekend begins 5/22
• 30-40% higher–the summer season–begins 5/25/20
• 20-25% higher–the summer 2 season–begins 8/9/20
• 5-10% higher–the fall season–begins 8/23/20
• 20-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 9/13/20
• 40-50% higher over the long Columbus Day weekend begins 10/9/20
• 20-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 10/12/20
• 5-10% higher–the fall 2 season– begins 10/25/20
• 30-35% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/21/20
• 5-10% higher–the fall 2 season–begins 11/28/20
• 10-20% higher–the regular 4 season–begins 12/6/20
• 35-45% higher–the peak season–begins 12/11/20
• 60-70% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/18/20

2020 DISNEY WORLD FORECAST RESORT PRICE SEASONS: MODERATE RESORTS

• The lowest prices of the year–the value season–begin 1/2/2020
• 15% higher prices–Marathon rates–begin 1/9/20
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/12/20
• 10-15% higher for the Martin Luther King Jr. long weekend begins 1/17/20
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/20/20
• 35-45% higher for the long Presidents Day weekend begins 2/13/20
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 2/17/20
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 2/23/20
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 3/6/20
• 40-45% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/5/20
• 15-20% higher–the regular season 2–begins 4/19/20
• 25-35% higher over the Memorial Day long weekend begins 5/22
• 14-17% higher–the summer season–begins 5/25/20
• 16-22% higher–the summer 2 season–begins 8/9/20
• 10-20% higher–the fall season–begins 8/23/20
• 15-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 9/13/20
• 25-35% higher over the long Columbus Day weekend begins 10/9/20
• 15-25% higher–the regular 3 season–begins 10/12/20
• 10-18% higher–the fall 2 season– begins 10/25/20
• 20-25% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/21/20
• 10-18% higher–the fall 2 season–begins 11/28/20
• 10-20% higher–the regular 4 season–begins 12/6/20
• 325% higher–the peak season–begins 12/11/20
• 45-55% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/18/20

2020 DISNEY WORLD RESORT FORECAST PRICE SEASONS: DELUXE RESORTS

• The lowest prices of the year–the value season–begin 1/2/2020
• 15-20% higher prices–Marathon rates–begin 1/9/20
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/12/20
• 15-20% higher for the Martin Luther King Jr. long weekend begins 1/17/20
• Lowest prices of year–the value season–begin 1/20/20
• 40-55% higher for the long Presidents Day weekend begins 2/13/20
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 2/17/20
• 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 2/21/20
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 3/6/20
• 50-60% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/5/20
• 20-25% higher–the regular season 2–begins 4/19/20
• 25-35 higher over the Memorial Day long weekend begins 5/22
• 10-17% higher–the summer season–begins 5/25/20
• 5-10% higher–near-lowest of year–the value season 2–begins 7/12/20
• Lowest of year–the value season–begins 8/21/20
• Prices bump up on 9/4/20 to 15% higher than the lowest of the year for the long Labor Day
  weekend
  Lowest of the year–the value season–begins 9/7/20
• 10-20% higher–the regular season 3–begins 9/18/20
• Prices increase to 25-30% higher than the lowest of the year for the long Columbus Day weekend on 10/9/20
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 10/12/20
• 20-25% higher–the regular season 4–begins 10/30/20
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 11/8/20
• 25-40% higher during Thanksgiving begins 11/24/20
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 11/28/20
• 15-20% higher–the regular season 4 or 5 or something–begins 12/6/20
• 30-45% higher–the peak season–begins 12/11/20
• 55-75% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/18/20

OTHER KEY PAGES FOR WHERE TO STAY AT DISNEY WORLD

• Where to stay–the Basics
• Where first-timers should stay
• Reviews of all the Disney World resorts, based on my 160+ stays in them

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WHAT IS JULY LIKE AT DISNEY WORLD?

Because pretty much every US schoolkid is on break in July, while shorter periods the rest of the year are more crowded, July overall has traditionally been the most crowded month at Disney World.

Note however, that the last three summers have been unusually good at Disney World in terms of crowds. If this trend continues, then July 2019 will be better than I’ve noted.

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DISNEY WORLD IN 2020

Usually on pages like this on this site I focus just on choices within a year. But—barring a recession—for those making plans, it’s important to note how Disney World in 2020 will stack up versus later years.

What we have coming up is the completion of the re-imagination of Hollywood Studios in 2020, the first major fruits of the re-imagining of Epcot in 2020, and Disney World’s 50th anniversary likely kicking off in 2021 and extending into early 2023.

As a result, I expect

• In 2020, something on the order of 2-4 million extra guests from three new attractions at the Studios and new attractions at Epcot
• In 2021 and especially 2022, something on the order of 6-10 million extra guests from Star Wars, the anniversaries and additional new attractions, including a total of four new E-ticket rides that will open at the Studios, Epcot and Magic Kingdom in 2020, 2021, and/or 2022

So 2020 at Disney World, while it will be rough, will be better than the next two years, for which I am forecasting eventually as many as 30,000 more guests a day than we saw in 2018. That’s the equivalent of a whole new park’s worth of guests…without a whole new park having opened.

Let me explain a bit how I get there, and then return to 2020 at Disney World.

WHAT HAPPENED AT DISNEY WORLD IN 2019

• The new land Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, with two “E”-ticket rides, Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run, and Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance, opened at Disney’s Hollywood Studios.  The opening  of the new E-ticket ride Mickey and Minnie’s Runaway Railway has been delayed to March 4, 2020, completing the transformation this park began in 2018 with Toy Story Land. Based on other recent openings, I expect all these to add something like the equivalent of 2-4 million new guests a year.
• IllumiNations at Epcot ended in the early fall, and was replaced with a temporary show while construction happens in World Showcase and the World Showcase Lagoon to support an all-new permanent show that will open in later 202o.
• The Disney Skyliner, principally a transportation system, but also a bit of an attraction and a kinetic addition, opened in September. It connects Epcot and Disney’s Hollywood Studios with the hotels Caribbean Beach, Pop Century, Art of Animation, and the new Disney Riviera Resort.
• The equivalent in capacity of about 1,000 new hotel rooms opened, in a new tower at Coronado Springs and at Riviera.

WHAT’S NEW AT DISNEY WORLD IN 2020

• Mickey and Minnie’s Runaway Railway will open at Disney’s Hollywood Studios on March 4, 2020.
• Epcot will see a new permanent nighttime show, and its new E-ticket Ratatouille attraction, Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, is slated to open in the summer of 2020. Epcot’s other new E-ticket attraction, based on Guardians of the Galaxy, may open as early as late 2020, although the first half of 2021 may be more likely. New films and minor shows open at Epcot in January 2020
• A new Star Wars-themed hotel may open outside of Disney’s Hollywood Studios as early as late 2020, as may a third hotel in the Swan/Dolphin complex, the Cove. 2021 is more likely for these.

WHAT’S NEW AT DISNEY WORLD IN 2021

• Disney World’s 50th anniversary celebration will likely begin later in the year.
• A new E-ticket ride at Magic Kingdom, TRON Lightyear Power Run, will most likely open in the first half of 2021. I would also not be surprised to see a new evening parade at Magic Kingdom in 2021, although this is just a guess, or more properly a hope.
• We may also see a re-launch of the Animal Kingdoms’ Rivers of Light in 2021.

WHAT’S NEW AT DISNEY WORLD IN 2022

• Disney World’s 50th anniversary celebration will continue all year. Based on what happened to attendance during its 25th anniversary, I expect this to add 15-20% to attendance compared to 2020, or another 4 to 8 million people. Adding this and the Hollywood Studios effects together, and picking a nice round number, I get about six to ten million more folk than in 2018.
• The transformation of Epcot will continue with changes to its entrance and Future World.
• The new resort “Reflections,” between the Wilderness Lodge and Fort Wilderness, will likely open in 2022.

DISNEY WORLD TICKET PRICING IN 2020

Expect higher than average ticket price increases in 2020 as Disney World extracts value from its Pandora, Toy Story, Star Wars and other investments.

Disney World also has a new-in-2018 ticket pricing model where you pay higher ticket prices for more attractive dates. For current 2020 Disney World ticket prices, see this.

DISNEY WORLD RESORT PRICING AND DEALS IN 2020

Disney World uses a combination of complicated and changing room pricing, and, on top of that, deals, to keep its resort hotel occupancy very high. Typically, rooms are more expensive—sometimes much more—during the more attractive times to go to Disney World. While deals have been technically available for most times of the year (you’ll find current Disney World deals here), the number and types of rooms available has gotten more and more restrictive over the past few years.

Deals often emerge after the best time to book your Disney World vacation. The simplest way to handle getting your deals is to make your initial booking through a travel agent, who will then–if a deal comes out for your dates–move heaven and earth to try to get you in to it.

I recommend Kelly B., who has been the travel agent partner of this site for years. To book your vacation through her, contact her using the form at the end of this page.

DISNEY WORLD CROWDS IN 2020

The major question for 2020 crowds at Disney World is the continuing impact of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge on the parks after its 2019 opening. Based on what Universal saw with Harry Potter, I expect the new land to be just slammed with crowds, with some spill-over effect into the rest of the Studios.  However, based on what happened at Universal I don’t necessarily see a broad increase in crowds in all the other parks from the Star Wars fans.

Early January 2020 will be slammed through the 4th, but better after then, with the Martin Luther King weekend being the worst later dates in the month,

Presidents Day, February 17 in 2020, is in the middle of its possible range. The week that includes Presidents Day will be bad as usual. (Tons of kids in the northeast have the whole week off.) Crowds for this week actually begin the Thursday before.

Mardi Gras in 2020 is February 25.  A few southern school districts have it off as a single or multi-day holiday. The impact of Mardi Gras-related visitors on Disney World is overrated, so don’t worry about it. (People mix up the effects from it and the effects of President’s day breaks–five out of the last eight years have seen the week of Mardi Gras also influenced by crowds from President’s Day breaks.)

Easter in 2020 will be later in its possible range, on April 12. As a result, there will be fewer good late April weeks.

Summer 2020 crowds are a bit up in the air.  They have been down the last few years, but I expect that the draw of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, Mickey and Minnie’s Runaway Railway, and the new Ratatouille ride in Epcot to bring us back to pretty profound summer crowds.

Thanksgiving, November 26, is nearly as late as it can be in 2020, giving more good early November dates but fewer good late November ones.

Christmas is on a Friday in 2020.  That means almost all schools that take two weeks off for Christmas will begin their breaks on Saturday December 19, 2020, and be off through Sunday January 3, 2021. Schools with shorter breaks will largely be out Thursday December 24 through January 3. As a result, the period from Christmas through January 2, 2021 will be especially crazy.

See the links for more on 2020 at Walt Disney World:

• 2020 Disney World crowd forecasts
• 2020 Disney World price seasons
• 2020 Disney World week rankings

Expect hotel rooms–and perhaps even tickets, in a new twist–to be harder to book in 2020 than they have been for years.  You can book a hotel up to 499 days before your planned check-in.

The long-time travel agent partner of this site, Kelly, can book your vacation for you.  Contact her using the form below.

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WHAT IS JUNE LIKE AT DISNEY WORLD?

If you must go to Disney World in the summer, the very beginning of June is your best choice for a first visit.

Crowds, while not good, are lower then than much of the rest of the summer, hotel prices are OK–except at the value resorts–and the full weight of summer weather is not yet in place.

(The end of August is the next best choice.  Prices and crowds are much better, but you are not only in peak summer heat then, but also the peak of the hurricane season.)

Note however, that the last three summers have been unusually good at Disney World in terms of crowds. If this trend continues, then June will be better than I’ve noted.

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WHAT IS MAY LIKE AT DISNEY WORLD?

Earlier May is a great time to visit Walt Disney World, with low crowds, moderate prices, and good weather.

The weather typically gets hotter and more humid over the month, and the end of the month sees high crowds and high prices from Memorial Day weekend on.

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