Category — w. Most Recent Stuff

Earlier this week, Amazon published a new version of my and Josh’s The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2017.

While not as extensive as our March update, we did send our publisher, Bob McClain of Theme Park Press, 34 pages of additions, deletions, updates and changes. Many were minor, but we made major changes to the Animal Kingdom material, so it is now fully up-to-date for those visiting the newly-opened Pandora: World of Avatar. We also made major changes to our review of Disney’s Caribbean Beach Resort.

As noted in the image, we offer those who bought any earlier versions of the 2017 edition free updates (as a PDF). If you’ve not already sent us your email, do so following the instructions in the image, and we’ll reply telling you how to get your update!

Ours is the only guidebook updated multiple times over the year, with free updates available to buyers. When Disney World changes, our advice changes.

Some more specifics on what’s available in the July update of The easy Guide:

CHAPTER 4: WHEN TO GO

We’ve made minor changes to reflect new dates that have come out—for example, for the Halloween and Christmas parties—since our last update.

We also revised the crowd forecast for the week of 12/16/2017, as new data suggest it will be a bit better than we had thought.

CHAPTER 5: WHERE TO STAY

We added minor updates on the status of various refurbs and additions, for example at the Wilderness Lodge, the Yacht Club, and Pop Century.

We’ve stayed in and dined at Caribbean Beach since its refurb began in May, and as a result did a major rewrite of its review. The key point: “We are hesitant to recommend [Caribbean Beach] for any guests planning much dining at the resort, as the temporary dining is barely adequate.”

CHAPTER 6: WHAT TO DO IN THE PARKS

Animal Kingdom saw an enormous set of changes and additions, including a new map, new overviews, new recommended FastPass+, new reviews, and new touring plans, and our material now fully reflects this major addition to Disney World.

Epcot saw just minor updates, and no changes to its FastPass+ priorities or touring plans.

Disney’s Hollywood Studios saw an expansion and re-organization of our material on the evening shows, an update on what’s happening at Hollywood and Vine, and other minor updates. The first four steps of one of our touring plans, “Morning Plan: Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster First,” changed a bit.

Magic Kingdom saw minor changes in the FastPass+ priorities, minor changes in the touring plans (especially related to the change of the typical afternoon parade time from 3p to 2p), a review of the new Happily Ever After evening show, and other small changes.

CHAPTER 7: WHERE TO EAT

We introduce the new mobile order function—where you can use the My Disney Experience app to save a ton of time by pre-ordering and then clicking “I’m here.” The new Animal Kingdom venue Satu’li Canteen is now in here, and you’ll find minor updates to dining in all the other parks, Disney Springs, and the resorts.

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Ours is the only guidebook updated multiple times over the year, with free updates available to buyers. When Disney World changes, our advice changes. What does your guidebook do??

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Every year I analyze summer break schedules for the upcoming school year, compare them to what I’d expected, and then don’t change my crowd forecasts for the upcoming summer, because breaks turned out about the way I thought they would, and nothing else is new.

Well, for 2018 breaks did turn out the way I thought they would–but something new emerged in the summer of 2016 that seems to be happening again in the summer of 2017. I thought long and hard about this new stuff, and about changing my crowd forecast for 2018…before deciding to leave the crowd forecast the same.

Here’s the story.

DISNEY WORLD 2018 SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds historically have been governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in mid-August

Over the past summer and a half, however, it seems other factors have come into play.

Summer stand-by waits in all of 2016 and so far in 2017 (I write this in mid-July) have been lower–sometimes substantially lower–than we’ve been used to. While there’s no evidence from Disney that attendance is substantially down (in April-June 2016, Disney World attendance compared to 2015 “was down 4% …with most of that decline due to the adverse impact of the shift in the Easter holiday period“; in July-September 2016 compared to 2015 , there were “increases in attendance…on a comparable fiscal period basis“), the feel of the parks in the summer–especially Epcot, Hollywood Studios, and the Animal Kingdom outside of Pandora–is much more comfortable than in years past.

I can’t explain the changed experience.  I have theories, mostly about the effects of Disney’s strategic re-pricing of tickets to make the higher-demand periods like summer less attractive, particularly in the pricing of one day tickets and in Florida resident annual passes with summer block-out dates–distinctions that launched between the 2015 and 2016 summer seasons, so the timing is right.

But this is just speculation, and does not much account for other things we’ve observed in the parks this summer–lower numbers of people in the parks and more easily available FastPass+. My co-author Josh has written on all three points multiple times this summer on easyWDW.com–see this for an example.

So to make a long story short, I don’t know what is going on, nor why it is going on.  Because I don’t, I don’t know if it will happen again next summer.  So I’m not going to re-forecast 2018 summer crowds as “moderate” rather than “high.”  But I also would not argue with someone else who in fact did make such a forecast change…

So if you go in the summer of 2018, you might have a much better crowd and wait experience than  I am predicting.  You will, however, still be in Florida in the summer–and I can’t possibly recommend that…

So…back to the other two drivers of summer crowds–school breaks and the peak of the hurricane season.

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the week that includes the 4th of July the busiest week.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June can start well, and then build to high crowd levels–although in 2017 the beginning of June–before blockout dates kicked in, and right after Pandora opened–was the busiest part of the month.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go as early in June or as late in August as their schedules permit. [Read more →]

Welcome back to Fridays with Jim Korkis! Jim, the dean of Disney historians and author of Jim’s Gems in The easy Guide, writes about Walt Disney World history every Friday on yourfirstvisit.net.

THE FRANCE PAVILION IN EPCOT’S WORLD SHOWCASE

By Jim Korkis

The France pavilion at Epcot was meant to capture springtime in Paris during the Belle Epoque, the “Beautiful Era” (1871-1914), a time of stability and optimism before World War I.

The International Gateway Bridge between the U.K. pavilion and France was meant to be reminiscent of the Pont des Arts archway pedestrian bridge that crossed the River Seine.

It was the first metallic bridge in Paris and was meant to resemble a suspended garden, with trees, banks of flowers, and benches. This historic monument was built in 1804 and demolished in 1981 because of structural damage and eventually re-built but with some significant differences.

Along the side of the river, there are items like an artist’s easel and canvas (an impressionist painting of the International Gateway) propped up against the wall with the artist’s bicycle nearby to create the impression that there is activity along the waterfront but that the people are just briefly away at the moment.

The streets of the pavilion are lined with cobblestones, and romantic background music fills the air. The goal was to provide a historical stretch of French architecture representing several styles and influences.

Architectural Designer Harry Webster, when he began designing the pavilion, thought to re-create the Place du Tetre, the artists’ colony near the cathedral of Sacre-Coeur, but decided the building would have dominated the skyline too much. He decided it would be more effective to have a “single exclamation point provided by the Eiffel Tower”.

The original Eiffel Tower in Paris was built in 1889 for the World’s Fair. Disney utilized the original blueprints and drawings of engineer Gustave Eiffel (who also designed the interior framework of the Statue of Liberty). One of the most famous landmarks in Paris, the Eiffel Tower was reconstructed at Epcot at one-tenth the scale of the original and rises 103 feet into the air. It includes replicas of tiny (non-working) elevators and turn-of-the century beacon lights.

Since guests are not allowed to go where the base of the structure would be, there was no reason to complete that part. The top of the tower actually rests on top of a building but its scale makes it look farther away and that other buildings in front are hiding the base so it seems complete. The actual tower is only 69 feet high on top of a 34 foot tall building.

When the Dolphin resort was built, guests could see the back of the pavilion, so additions had to be made to conceal the fact that the bottom of the tower was on top of a building.

The Eiffel Tower is more tan and pinkish than the one in Paris today.  The reason is that it is meant to resemble the coloring of what it looked like in the late 1800s.

The schedule for filming Impression de France, the film shown in the pavilion, had to be readjusted because the iconic tower was soon to undergo a three year renovation. Since the film required four scenes of the tower, the shooting schedule was shifted so that those scenes were shot first.

The park bordering the canal along the right side of the pavilion was inspired by the famous painting “A Sunday Afternoon on the Island of La Grande Jatte” by pointillist artist Georges Seurat.

Behind Les Chefs de France is La Petite Rue (“The Little Street”) to showcase a typical rural street. It was meant to convey the design and craftsmanship of a street built without the aid of metropolitan construction work but “with strong farming hands, forming rustic and rugged looking exteriors and natural and unpretentious interiors”.

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Thanks, Jim!

Here’s the scoop on France from our book, The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit:

And there’s more from Jim on World Showcase here. Come back next Friday for more from Jim Korkis!

In the meantime, check out his books, including his latest, Secret Stories of Disneyland, his Secret Stories of Walt Disney World: Things You Never You Never Knew, which reprints much material first written for this site, and his contributions to The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit, all published by Theme Park Press.

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DISNEY WORLD NEXT WEEK: JULY 15 TO JULY 23, 2017

The material below details next week’s Disney World operating hours, Extra Magic Hours, parades, and fireworks.

For more on July 2017 at Disney World, see this.

OPERATING HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/15/-7/23/17

The Magic Kingdom will be open from 9a-10p every day

Epcot will be open from 9a-9p every day

Disney’s Hollywood Studios will be open 9a-9.30p every day

Disney’s Animal Kingdom will be open 9a-10p every day

EXTRA MAGIC HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/15-7/23/17

Saturday 7/15 Morning:  Animal Kingdom Evening: Animal Kingdom

Sunday 7/16  Morning:  Hollywood Studios  Evening: Animal Kingdom

Monday 7/17 Morning: Animal Kingdom  Evening: Animal Kingdom

Tuesday 7/18 Morning: none Evening:  Epcot, Animal Kingdom

Wednesday 7/19 Morning: none  Evening:  Magic Kingdom, Animal Kingdom

Thursday 7/20 Morning: Epcot Evening: Animal Kingdom

Friday 7/21 Morning:  Magic Kingdom Evening: Animal Kingdom

Saturday 7/22 Morning: Animal Kingdom Evening: Animal Kingdom

Sunday 7/23  Morning: Hollywood Studios Evening: Animal Kingdom

PARADES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/15-7/23/17

The Magic Kingdom: Afternoon Festival of Fantasy Parade: 3p every day

FIREWORKS AND EVENING SHOWS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/15-7/23/17

Happily Every After at Magic Kingdom: 9p every night

IllumiNations at Epcot: 9p every night

Fantasmic at Disney’s Hollywood Studios: 9p every night

Star Wars Show and Fireworks at Disney’s Hollywood Studios: 9.30p every night

Rivers of Light at Disney’s Animal Kingdom 9.15p and 10.30p every night

SHOW SCHEDULES FOR WALT DISNEY WORLD 7/15-7/23/17

See Steve Soares’ site here. Click the park names at its top for show schedules.

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DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS IN 2018

Walt Disney World Spring Break crowds are typically governed by two and a quarter factors:

• Public school Spring Break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter but vary more than you might think
• The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, and
• The quarter factor, the date of President’s day.  Later President’s Days (which can range from February 15 to February 21) tend to make the first part of March better

An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter can spread the first two factors out, yielding some good early March and early April weeks.

Easter 2018, on April 1, is early in its possible range. President’s Day 2018, is late, on February 19. As a result, my 2018 crowd calendar shows (mostly) bad March crowds but (mostly) good April crowds.

More specifically, 2018 Spring Break crowds at Walt Disney World will be

• Bad Presidents Day Week
• Fine the weeks beginning February 24th and March 3rd
• Very bad the week beginning March 10th
• Bad the week beginning March 17
• Very bad the weeks beginning March 24 and March 31
• Fine April 7 and later.

2018 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Although more and more school districts are moving away from an Easter-centered Spring Break, the plurality of kids still have the weeks before Easter or following Easter off.

As a result, the single biggest factor determining better and worse Spring Break weeks at Walt Disney World is the date of Easter–which can range from March 22 to April 25.

A later Easter has a couple of different effects: first, it spreads out the dates of breaks for school districts that don’t frame their breaks around Easter, and second, if particularly late, will push districts that typically take the week after Easter off into the week before Easter instead, to keep from compressing their May academic calendars.  

An earlier Easter has the opposite effects.  Districts that traditionally try to take the week after Easter off will be able to do so, and districts that don’t base their calendars on Easter will be largely compressed into a couple of March weeks.

The date of President’s Day–which can range from February 15 to February 21–also has an effect. Because many northeastern districts both have a spring break and also take the week of President’s Day off, the later President’s Day is, the better early March will be–as parents avoid taking their kids out of school the weeks after a long President’s Day break.

The effect of the various dates in 2018 is to compress most school spring breaks into just four weeks beginning March 10 and continuing until the end of the week beginning March 31.

ACTUAL 2018 SPRING BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including 280 of the largest relevant US public school districts. 15.3 million kids–about a third of US school kids–are in the database, and they are weighted based on propensity to go to Disney World.

(For how the database is built, see the this. Weekends are in black, except Easter, in red. Holidays (Mardi Gras and President’s Day) are also in red. Click the image to enlarge it.)

My 2018 Disney World crowd calendar shows this:

• The week beginning February 10, 2018 has a minor bump early from the small number of kids with Mardi Gras off, and a larger bump later as long weekends for Presidents Day begin Thursday February 15. Overall I give it a 5/moderate-minus rating–better earlier, worse later
• Presidents Day week, the week beginning 2/17, has high crowds through Tuesday and pretty high crowds the rest of the week. Overall it gets a crowd ranking of 8/high-minus, worse earlier in the week and better later
• The weeks beginning 2/24 and 3/3 have hardly any kids on break and get crowd ratings of 4 (low plus) for the week of the 24th and 3/low for the week of the 3rd
• The week beginning March 10 both has a ton of kids on break (thanks, Texas!) and is also attractive to snowbirds. It gets a 10/higher crowd rating.
• The week beginning 3/17 has fewer kids on break than the weeks that surround it, but is still attractive to snowbirds. I’m giving it a rating of 8/high-minus crowds.
• The week beginning 3/24 is the week before Easter and will be a zoo, as it usually is, and gets a crowd rating of 11/highest.
• The week after Easter (beginning 3/31/18) has even more kids on break in 2018 than the week before and also gets a crowd rating of 11/highest.
• The week beginning April 7, 2018, will be much better than I had thought. I’m now giving it a crowd rating of 5/moderate-minus. If I am wrong–it happens–this week will be better than I am forecasting
• The rest of April will be just fine.

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This site’s Disney World crowd calendars always show crowds dropping off in later August.

For example, in 2017, crowd rankings go from 8/high-minus at the end of July/beginning of August down to 2/lower in early September.

This page both explain how that comes about and also reviews how the site’s crowd calendars are built.

END OF SUMMER 2017 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The highest-crowd periods at Walt Disney World all have one thing in common: they are convenient times for parents to take their kids to Orlando. That is, they are times that kids are out of school and that parents traditionally can take off of work.

What’s not so clear until you do the numbers is that actual school vacation dates are much more varied than you’d think.  And there’s no good source you can go to that explains what all these varied dates are.

So usually every year about this time one of my nieces goes to more hundreds of school district websites and captures all the key vacation dates for the upcoming academic year. This year all of my nieces are distracted by babies, so I did half this data collection myself.

(This time of year because you’d be surprised many districts don’t put their calendars up for the upcoming year until June, even late June–looking at you, Michigan.)

This year I collected data on 280 school districts with 15.3 million kids–about a third of the US school-age population. These include the 100 largest school districts in the U.S., plus 180 more of the next largest school districts mostly in the more highly-populated states east of the Mississippi–that is, the states from which in particular Walt Disney World draws its visitors.

I then create a database that shows based on district enrollment every kid who is off on every date, and weight each district based on that district’s state’s proportion of total US visits to this website (because Disney won’t tell me actual visitation by state!). See the image above for a screenshot example.

Finally, I calculate percentage of total weighted kids on break by date and use that to inform the crowd calendars.

Above are the results of this for when kids go back to school in 2017.

So you can see that

• Kids don’t start going back to school in real numbers until Tuesday 8/8
• More than a third are back in school by 8/17
• About half  are back in school by Friday 8/25 and
• Almost 70% are back in school before Labor Day (noted in red)

In 2017, pretty much all kids are back in school by the Friday after Labor Day.

Moreover, vacation patterns typically don’t have people returning from their vacation the night before school begins, so the effect of these back-to-school dates is offset into earlier August by around a week.

Thus, in the 2017 crowd calendar, the week of 7/29 is rated 8/high-minus crowds, the week of 8/5 7/moderate-plus crowds, the week of 8/12 6/moderate crowds, the week of 8/19 4/low-plus crowds, and the week of 8/26 3/low crowds.

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