Category — Disney World Crowds

This site’s Disney World crowd calendars always show crowds dropping off in later August.

For example, in 2014, crowd rankings go from 8/high-minus at the beginning of August down to 2/lower in early September.

This page both explain how that comes about and also reviews how the site’s crowd calendars are built.

END OF SUMMER 2014 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The highest-crowd periods at Walt Disney World all have one thing in common: they are convenient times for parents to take their kids to Orlando.  That is, they are times that kids are out of school and that parents traditionally can take off of work.

What’s not so clear until you do the numbers is that actual school vacation dates are much more varied than you’d think.  And there’s no good source you can go to that explains what all these varied dates are.

So every year about this time one of my nieces goes to more than 180 school district websites and captures all the key vacation dates for the upcoming academic year. (This time of year because you’d be surprised many districts don’t put their calendars up for the upcoming year until June or July; this year, about 165 of the 180 had their calendars out by the time we agreed to stop collecting data.)

These include the 100 largest school districts in the U.S., plus eighty more of the next largest school districts in the more highly-populated states east of the Mississippi–that is, the states from which in particular Walt Disney World draws its visitors.

I then create a database that shows based on district enrollment every kid who is off on every date, sum these by state, and weight them based on the state’s proportion of total US visits to this website (because Disney won’t tell me actual visitation by state!). See the image above for a screenshot example.

Finally, I calculate percentage of total weighted kids on break by date and use that to inform the crowd calendars. (There’s about 12.6 million actual kids in the database.)

Above are the results of this for when kids go back to school in 2014.

So you can see that kids don’t start going back to school in real numbers until the week beginning 8/9; almost half are back in school the week beginning 8/16; almost 70% are back during the week beginning 8/23, and more than 90% are back in school shortly after Labor Day. Moreover, vacation patterns typically don’t have people returning from their vacation the night before school begins, so the effect of these back-to-school  dates is offset into earlier August by around a week.

Thus, in the 2014 crowd calendar, the week of 8/2 is rated 8/high-minus crowds, the week of 8/9 7/moderate-plus crowds, the week of 8/16 6/moderate crowds and the week of 8/23 3/low crowds!

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PEAK 2013 CROWDS WILL BEGIN DECEMBER 21

At the end of this week the 2013 holiday crowds will begin to slam Walt Disney World.

Crowds will be a mess through January 1, 2014–and not that great the rest of that week either. There won’t be any real slow-down until Saturday January 4.

Multi-hour waits will be common on the best-loved rides (waits crossed 3 hours at times last year), senior managers will be bussing tables, and park closures are possible.

Yes, there will also be a wonderful Christmas program and fun stuff on New Years Eve, but all in, because of the crowds and waits, this is a lousy time for a Disney World vacation.

But for the hundreds of thousands of you who will be there then, here’s some thoughts on how to make the best of it!

DEALING WITH THE HOLIDAY CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD [Read more →]

2015 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The chart lower on the page shows my forecasts for 2015 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.

Dates in it are the beginning of the week, and the forecast covers the recommended Saturday-Sunday 9 day stays.

(For 2016 crowds, click here, and for 2017 crowds, see this.)

Crowd levels are ranked by week from 1-11 in the following way:

1: Lowest of the year

2: Lower

3: Low

4: Low-plus

5: Moderate-minus

6: Moderate

7: Moderate-plus

8: High-minus

9: High

10: Higher

11: Highest

HOW TO INTERPRET THE 2015 DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR

Dates are the beginning of the week.

The “low crowd” weeks–those colored green, and rated 1-4–represent the only crowd levels a family visiting for the first time, and unsure if it will ever return, should consider.

However, lower crowds, especially lowest crowds, do not always mean a better week. The lowest weeks are low for a reason–typically because they are in the hurricane or the ride closure seasons.

The “moderate crowd” weeks–those in black and rated 5-7–have crowd levels I would not recommend to first time visitors. However, I’d go during such weeks myself with no hesitation, and think these levels are OK for returning visitors who don’t need to see everything and already know how to work Walt Disney World.

The “high crowd” weeks–those in red, rated 8-11–should be avoided by everyone. They aren’t, which is why they are so high.

MY DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR GOES UP TO “11”

The influence of the Unofficial Guide  and TouringPlans.com has led almost all Disney World crowd calendars to top out at 10.

However, I’ve always thought that the really nastiest weeks of the year deserved an 11 for emphasis.

So, in homage to Spinal Tap, I assigned 11 to “highest.”

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2015 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2016 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2015 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2016 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2015 price seasons, see this
  • For projected 2016 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

Want a second opinion?  Then check out my book lol.

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PICKING THE BEST AND WORST DAYS TO VISIT THE DISNEY WORLD PARKS

As I’ve noted extensively elsewhere, this time of year–basically, until December 20, excluding Thanksgiving Week–although Disney World is largely un-crowded, you can choose your way into a really crowded park.

The issue is varying evening hours and entertainment, which can draw, or repel, huge numbers of people.

This week is a particularly good example (see the image, from the calendar I post every Friday), with

• Two early 6p closes at Disney’s Hollywood Studios (10/2 and 10/5), each with no Fantasmic
• Four early 7p closes at the Magic Kingdom (9/29, 10/3, 10/4, and 10/6), each with no Wishes or evening parade, because of Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party and
• Late 10p closes at Epcot Friday and Saturday, because of the Food and Wine Festival

Here’s the basics: people are repelled by early closes and the absence of well-loved evening shows, and attracted by late closes and the traditional evening entertainment.

So look at Saturday 10/5 at the Magic Kingdom–it’s the only day in a four day stretch where the park is open later than 7p, and when Wishes and the evening parade will be showing. Moreover, Disney’s Hollywood Studios closes quite early, and people will avoid that park and be particularly drawn to MK for the same reasons.

So the Magic Kingdom will be just mobbed the 5th.

At Disney’s Hollywood Studios, the 3rd and 4th, with normal closes and normal evening entertainment, are between two days with 6p closes and no evening shows.  Both dates will be much more crowded than the early-close 2nd and 5th.

The 4th will be particularly crowded at the Studios.   On the 4th, it has morning Extra Magic Hours, which always draws extra people from the Disney resort hotels–and those without park hoppers then stay all day. Moreover, there’s nothing going on at other parks other than Epcot’s later 10p close to draw people away from it. And the Magic Kingdom’s 7p close will have people looking away from the Magic Kingdom for the next best alternative…

So the takeaway?  If you can see the evening shows on a different night, then make your principal park visits on days with they have materially early closings. 

You will find easy lines and un-crowded parks, and see more than you would on days with longer hours–because those longer hours attract disproportionate crowds!

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PREDICTIONS ABOUT DISNEY WORLD CROWD IN 2014

This is a supplement to my general material on the best and worst times to visit Walt Disney World  and my specific Disney World crowd calendar.

I published a revision of the 2014 crowd calendar earlier this summer—the last revision needed, barring typos or unanticipated events—after the full set of public school calendars I analyze (about 180 this year) became available.

The 2014 calendar revision includes both some changes in approach and in specific week rankings—though only a couple of weeks changed crowd class–e.g. from “green” (lower waits) to “black” (moderate waits)–or week class, e.g. from “recommended” to “not recommended.”

The purpose of my Disney World crowd calendar is to indicate (especially for first-time visitors who may never return, but the math is true for everybody) better weeks, which are marked in green; not so good weeks, marked in black; and bad weeks, marked in red.

Because my recommended itineraries are 9 days and 8 nights, “weeks” as I define them begin on Saturdays and end 9 days later on a Sunday.  That is, they include two weekends and the weekdays between.  I’m not like other people, but I am consistent to myself…

Each week gets a crowd rating, from 1 to 11, where 1 is lowest crowds.  In a bold step, for the 2014 crowd calendar I added “4” and “8.”   There’s a long story behind that, which I’ll skip so that I keep my one remaining reader.

These ratings are ordinal, not cardinal.  A week rated “9” is not three times worse than one rated “3”—but it should be better than a week rated 10, and worse than one rated 8.

Ok, with all that preamble out of the way, here’s some comments on 2014 crowds at Walt Disney World, focused on weeks that got revised but also including some general observations on each month.

DISNEY WORLD CROWDS IN 2014: NOTES AND CHANGES

January 2014

New Years crowds are driven by school holidays, which are profoundly affected by the day of New Years.  A midweek New Years means many kids are off that whole January week, with massive crowds continuing through the Saturday after New Years. That’s what we see in 2014, with crowds extending to Saturday January 4th.

The rest of January tends to be low-crowd, with exceptions over the Marathon Weekend and Martin Luther King Weekend.  The week beginning January 11 has the Marathon at one end and MLK weekend at the other (though with great days in between), so I bumped its overall rating from 3 to 4 to reflect the weekend effects.

February 2014

Crowds are high in February beginning the Thursday before Presidents Day through the Saturday after.

Most kids get just a three day weekend here, but a ton of kids in the snowier New England states have the whole week of President’s Day off—and other kids are taken out of school.  So crowds this week are massive.

Other kids get a longer weekend beginning Thursday or Friday at the end of the week before Presidents Day, and Disney also has a dance competition that begins late that week, and another running event—the Princess Half-Marathon– at the end of the week of President’s Day.

To reflect the impact of earlier-beginning long weekend holidays and the dance competition, I changed the week rating of the week beginning 2/11 from 3 to 4.  This week will be fine until Thursday, but then crowds will build.

The week beginning 2/22/14 had its rating changed from 2 to 3, to reflect the weekend crowds at the beginning of the week from President’s Day and hangover effects from the running events the weekend of the 22nd.

The rest of February is great from a crowd point of view.

March 2014

March and April are the hardest times to forecast.  Crowds are affected by the date of Easter, traditional school break dates in districts that don’t tie their spring breaks to Easter, and the need of northeasterners to get away from the snow. I can quantify the impact of spring break dates, but not so well the ebb and flow of those escaping the snow.

Unless Easter is very early, typically the first week of March is fine—and I’m forecasting it as such in 2014. However, I’m a little worried about the impact of visitors from the massive HIMSS conference (which ends 2/27) and for that reason have bumped the crowd rating for the week beginning 3/1 from 3 to 4.

The rest of March looks pretty bad to me…

April 2014

In my draft 2014 crowd calendar, I had thought that the week beginning March 29 would be pretty good, but the school calendar analysis showed more kids on break that week than I had expected.  (I’ve figured out how to get this closer for 2015.)  So I’ve changed my crowd rating of this week from 3 to 5, moving it from the “low” to the “moderate” class.  It may be worse—but in my dataset, 80% of districts with this week off also have another major spring break.

The week that begins two weeks before Easter typically has few US kids on break (many UK kids are off then, but not enough to profoundly affect crowds), and this is true for 2014 as well. The week before Easter is always the worst week for kid’s breaks—and will be so in 2014 as well.  The week after Easter is never good, but it is better in years–like 2014–with a very late Easter.  Based on actual break schedules, I’ve lowered the crowd rating for the week after Easter from 9 to 8—still bad, but not as bad as some years.

Late April crowds beginning seven days after Easter are just fine!

May 2014

Early May crowds are fine.  Later May sees a build in crowds, peaking the week that includes Memorial Day, partly because of a trend towards earlier ends to summer breaks—which leads to earlier beginnings to these breaks, and more kids out of school in late May and early June.

Star Wars Weekends clot Disney’s Hollywood Studios Friday-Sundays in later May and early June.

June 2014

Early June crowds have been worse than forecast both of the past two years, and schools are out even earlier in 2014.  As a result, I’ve changed the rating for the week beginning 6/7 from 7 (Moderate-plus) to 8 (high minus).  Later June sees even higher crowds.

July 2014

Some kids don’t get out of school til the end of June, and others go back in early August.  But pretty much all kids are out in July, so it’s the worst month for crowding at Disney World (some holiday weeks the rest of the year are worse than any single July week, but overall, July is the worst month).

There may be fewer tourists from South America during their July 2014 winter break because of the FIFA world championships in Brazil absorbing some vacation time and budget.  But I’m not expecting to see this affect July crowding much—though, as we’ll see, it may have an effect in September.

August 2014

August crowds seem to have been getting a little better, likely for the same reason that early June is getting a little worse—the trend towards earlier returns to school.

As a result, I’ve dropped the crowd ratings in each of the first three weeks of August 2014, from 9 to 8 the week beginning 8/2, 9 to 7 the week beginning 8/9, and 7 to 6 the week beginning 8/16.  However, all three weeks remain firmly in the “avoid” or “not recommended” categories…

Later August is just fine from a crowd point of view.

September 2014

September is typically the lowest crowd month at Disney World.  All US kids are back in school by early in the month, and parents resist taking their kids out of school at the beginning of terms (that’s why later January and early February are almost as uncrowded).

I have, however, bumped the ratings up for the week of 9/13, which went from 1—lowest crowds to 3—low crowds.

There’s two issues I see this week, which is typically spring break for South American kids (though many families take their kids out of school the week before as well, which I’ve bumped from 1 to 2).

One is that some South American families who missed their traditional July visit because of FIFA will come in September instead.  Second is that the next part of Harry Potter will have opened at Universal by now, creating an even stronger than normal draw to Orlando for South American spring breakers.

I’m still classing these weeks as low—just not as low as in prior years. Note that beginning in early September and going through most of the rest of the year, which day you go to the Magic Kingdom really matters.

October 2014

Other than the week that includes Columbus Day (the week beginning 10/11 in 2014) October is a great month for avoiding crowds at Walt Disney World. Worries some express about the impact of fall breaks on Disney World crowds are overblown.  I made no changes between the draft and final ratings in October.

November 2014

November has two problematic weeks—Thanksgiving week, and the first full week of the month, Jersey Week.

Jersey Week is not bad, but is worse than the weeks before and after it. Thanksgiving week is bad.

The month’s crowd ratings did not change.

December 2014

You won’t find a sound guidebook or website that does not trumpet the period between the Sunday after Thanksgiving and the middle of December as a wonderful time to visit.  The three weeks here are always my top three ranked weeks of the year for Walt Disney World visits, and are so again in 2014.

Well, people read this stuff and make decisions based on it, and every year these three weeks get a little more crowded.

So for 2014 I’ve increased the crowd rating of each of these three weeks—the week beginning 11/29 from 2 to 3, the week beginning 12/6 (Pop Warner Week) from 3 to 4, and the week beginning 12/13 from 2 to 3.  These are still classed as “low crowd” weeks—just not as low crowd as they were just a few short years ago.

I worry sometimes that this is my fault…my “Weeks to Visit Ranked in Order” pages have been seen more than 2.5 million times…but then I decide that I’m just not that important.

Later December—the weeks that include Christmas and New Years—is always a mess, and the mid-week holidays in 2014 mean that all of the weeks beginning 12/20 and 12/27/2014 will be horrible in 2014 as well.  My crowd calendar goes to 11 just for these weeks…

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the next best dates, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2013 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2013 Week Picker, click here
  • For 2014 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2013 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2014 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2013 price seasons, click here
  • For 2014 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

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DISNEY WORLD 2014 SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds are governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in later August

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the weeks shaped by 4th of July travel the busiest week.

Later July is also the traditional South American winter break.

However, in 2014 the FIFA championships in Brazil June 12 to July 13 may absorb many soccer-mad South American fans’ vacation budgets, leading to a little less Disney World visitation in the winter break.  I haven’t adjusted my crowd calendars for this, as the parks will still be plenty mobbed! But later July might be a bit better than forecast.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June can start well but then build quickly to high crowd levels.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Summer school calendars have been evolving to earlier August starts and as a result earlier June releases.  This has made early June less good, and mid-late August, better, than in prior years. My 2014 forecasts reflect this.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go as early in June or as late in August as their schedules permit. [Read more →]