Disney World High Temperatures Year Round

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DISNEY WORLD TEMPERATURES

The image (click to open; when open, click again to enlarge) shows Orlando and Disney World high temperatures by day for the entire year.

It shows 80th percentile, 50th percentile, and 20th percentile high temperatures, based on 20 years of weather data ending in 2006.

You interpret it most easily like this: for example, “On March 1, there is a 20% chance that the high temperature will be around or lower than 68, an 80% chance it will be higher than around 68, and a 20% chance it will be around 83 or higher.”

The key takeaway is that highs are not reliably (80% chance or better) above 75 between the beginning of November and the end of March…and that the summer is really hot…

Or here’s another way to think about the chart:

The pink line in the middle is the typical high temperature. Mathematically it’s the median, which means there’s a 50-50 chance the high will be lower or higher than the pink line.

Or to think another way, if you were there two days in a row, typically one day would have a high above the pink line, one a high below it, and the average of the highs of the two days would be the pink line.*

But that raises the question of how much above or how much below the pink line.

And that’s what the blue and yellow line are meant to communicate. The short version of the blue and yellow lines is that the closer together they are, the more likely the actual high temp will be pretty close to what’s signaled by the pink line. The wider apart they are–as they are in November through February–the more the highs can be well above, or well below, what the pink line expresses.

So here’s another way to think of it.

If you go on a five day trip, the odds are that three of the five days will have high temperatures between the blue and yellow lines, one day will have a high below the blue line, and one well have a high above the yellow line. And the average high of all five days will be the pink line!

The whole point of all this is that there’s broad stretches of the year when the “typical” (pink line) high temp can be a lot lower than, or a lot higher than, what you actually see!

*Yes I know average and median aren’t the same, and what I really should have said is that if you went the same day two different years rather than two days in a row, etc, but I’m looking for comprehensibility, not accuracy…since the data is continuous the second statement is fairly accurate, and because variability is fairly symmetrical around the mean, the median and mean are pretty close…

DATA SOURCES

All this site’s weather pages except for the material on cyclonic storms and on tornadoes are based on 20 years of data from the National Weather Service ending in December 2006. The cyclonic storm material is based on 30 years of data from Wikipedia. The tornado material is from NOAA/NCDC and goes from 1950 through October 2009.

ORLANDO WEATHER LINKS

• Weather and When to Go
• High Temperatures Year Round
• Average Rainfall by Arrival Date
• Hurricanes
• Tornadoes
• Chance of Winter High Temperature Over 75
• Pool Days November through February

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19 comments

1 NONNIE ANN { 04.16.11 at 10:12 am }

Why does everything have to be so calculated? This is, after all, a vacation. Just relax and go with the flow. You don’t have to have every minute accounted for on your trip. Enjoy the experience and make happy memories.

2 Anonymous { 02.21.12 at 12:30 pm }

A I would like to go the week before christmas to take in the seasonal stuff. Is this a good time?

3 Dave { 02.22.12 at 6:24 am }

Hi, it depends on exactly when you arrive. The earlier weeks in December are much better. See this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/10/20/2012-weeks-to-visit-walt-disney-world-ranked-in-order/

4 Jennifer { 03.26.12 at 12:01 am }

thank you!

5 Dave { 03.26.12 at 6:35 am }

6 Lisa { 06.12.12 at 5:47 am }

Hi Dave

Thanks for all your help with planning our trip in May – we had such an amazing time that I want to go back asap! My kids have half-term over here which is 2 weeks starting from 20th October – would you recommend these as good weeks to go, both for low crowds and reasonable weather?

Thanks so much for your help.

Lisa

7 Dave { 06.12.12 at 7:42 am }

Hi Lisa, and I’m so glad May turned out well! I really like those two weeks–see this http://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/10/20/2012-weeks-to-visit-walt-disney-world-ranked-in-order/

8 Jen { 08.12.12 at 8:57 am }

Hi Dave,
Thank you for your site! IT has been very helpful! I am planning my first trip (as an adult) with my almost 2 and 5 yr. old. I will be at Disney late Dec. 29th (just going to bed, no parks) and leae the 4th of Jan. (we will be able to hit the parks until about 1pm that day). So I know that is a crazy time to go, but I teach so all the times I can go are crazy! Anyway, was wondering what you would suggest as far as which parks which days to avoid crowds (no park hopper). I was planning AK on new years eve since my kids can’t hang til midnight and the crowds will probably be to much for them everywhere else. Any suggestions for the other days? My son should be 44 inches by then (he is 43 1/2 now!) and we are not planning on visiting Epcot (or if we do it would be that last short day). I need help strategizing! Trying to get to MK on least crowded days since my kids will probably love that park the most….

9 Dave { 08.12.12 at 5:39 pm }

Hi Joan, glad the site has helped.

That week, there’s no way to avoid the crowds.

If you are staying at a WDW hotel, and have a park hopper, then got to park with morning extra magic hours (arrive at least 30 mins before the EMH begins) and then hop away later in the day.

If you aren’t staying at a WDW resort, and/or don’t have a hopper, then avoid parks with am EMH…

10 joyce { 10.12.12 at 8:25 pm }

going to disney world in late october wandering whats best to pack for the temperture thank you

11 Dave { 10.13.12 at 1:06 pm }

Hi Joyce, see this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/03/19/october-2012-at-walt-disney-world/

12 BRANDON WONG { 10.17.12 at 2:29 am }

Hi Dave, This will be our first trip to Disney World Orlando, 3adults, 1 junoir (17 y/o) and 1 child 8 y/o). We have an open schedule but would like to go when the crowds are low, rain is low and heat are mid to low 70′s to low 80′s are good. We are from San Diego so tornados and hurricains are out. Which hotels do you recommend, we were told the Dolphin and Swan were great and are the dining packages a good value. We will stay for 6-7 days. Any suggestions are appreciated. Many thanks.

13 Dave { 10.17.12 at 9:35 am }

Hey Brandon!

If you are thinking 2013, then the “week picker” is perfect for you–see http://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/08/27/the-2013-walt-disney-world-week-picker/ I think particularly suited for someone spoiled from San Diego weather –which as far as I am concerned is perfect as soon as the fog/haze burns off!–in 2013 would be late April…

I’m not so keen on Swan and Dolphin. For example, they are not Disney owned, so aren’t even in the dining package. For my recommendations in order by price class see this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/04/26/walt-disney-world-resort-hotel-reviews/

14 andrea { 01.22.13 at 12:28 pm }

We are planning our first trip to Disney World for our 40th wedding anniversary. We can go in October. What week would you suggest? We want to be able to use the outdoor pools. What medium price resort would you stay at? How do you plan the itinerary?
Thank you,Andrea

15 Dave { 01.22.13 at 1:22 pm }

Hi Andrea, the second half of October is particularly good–see items #4 and #5 here: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/09/19/2013-weeks-to-visit-walt-disney-world-ranked-in-order/

My recommended medium price resort for couples is Port Orleans French Quarter. See this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/06/26/the-most-romantic-walt-disney-world-resorts/ and also this http://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/10/25/personal-favorites-the-moderate-resorts/

I publish itineraries about 6 months in advance (so October won’t be out for a couple of months), but they are for families with kids…you might want to take a look at this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/planning-your-first-family-trip/how-long-to-stay/other-trip-lengths/designing-your-own-walt-disney-world-itinerary/designing-your-own-itinerary-continued/

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16 Stats guy { 04.09.13 at 9:36 am }

THIS IS INCREDIBLE! Great work!

17 Dave { 04.09.13 at 10:27 am }

Thanks!!!

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18 Sara M { 04.29.13 at 10:21 pm }

Ok… here is a question because I am a very indecisive person and keep changing my dates and mind. I really have researched the best times by low crowd, price etc. I am wondering what your take is on either the week of November 9th or if we should wait and do the week of December 7th? I wanted to go in the end of October but am not able to book until May 3rd which would leave us at less than 180 days. My main factor now is deciding WHEN to go so that I can get on with the FUN of the planning…

19 Dave { 04.30.13 at 8:29 am }

Sara, they are both great weeks. But before giving up on the end of October…most great dining for late October likely will still be available May 3, so what I’d do is book May 3, reserve dining, see what you’ll be missing–you’ll be so close to 180 that it likely won’t be much–and weigh the results…If you end up deciding you don’t like the totality of the dining you can book, then just cancel everything and start over with one of the later dates…

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