Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

OVERVIEW: APRIL 2017 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews April 2017 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

The late Easter in 2017 and the pattern of pricing and spring breaks before and after it means that the only period in the month that I recommend is the end of the month–April 22 and later.

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OVERVIEW: MARCH 2017 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews March 2017 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

The first week of March can be a great time to go to Disney World, and is so in 2017, up until March 10.  The rest of the month will be lousy–with high prices and high crowds.

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OVERVIEW: FEBRUARY 2017 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews February 2017 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Early February 2017 will have some of the lowest crowds and prices of the year, but also the risk of ride closures.

The end of the month brings slightly higher prices and crowds, but better weather and few closures.

In between–in 2017, the period from Thursday the 16th through Saturday the 25th–we will see high crowds and high prices.

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OVERVIEW: JANUARY 2017 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews January 2017 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Early January 2017 will be dominated by holiday crowds and prices, but after the 6th, most days will see low crowds and low prices–with upticks around the Marathon (weekend of the 9th), the Martin Luther King Day three day holiday weekend, and possibly during the days before the Pro Bowl on January 29.

January is not recommended for first-time visitors who may never return, because of ride closures. For returning visitors–and first timers who know they can return–it’s usually a great time to visit, but the Pro Bowl does add some uncertainty to 2017.

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Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve updated my key planning tools for a 2017 visit to Walt Disney World:

• 2017 Disney World Price Seasons
• 2017 Disney World Crowd Calendar
• 2017 Disney World Week Rankings

(Kelly B can book your 2017 Disney World vacation for you–contact her at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499.)

The price season update was based on Disney’s actual price calendar for 2017, published June 21.

The crowd calendar update was based on analysis of the 2016-2017 school year breaks of more than 15.4 million school kids–see this for an example. I analyzed for 2017 almost 280 districts, and too many of these don’t finalize their calendars until June–late June in the case of many Michigan districts, which go on spring break April 1 in 2017…

And the week rankings were revised because actual prices and updated crowd forecasts are major components in their design–with other important factors being as always ride closures, the peak of the hurricane season, and the Disney World holiday program.

After major price season changes in 2016, structural changes to the seasons on 2017 were minor–although the changes in 2017 price levels are interesting. So my forecasts largely held up, and the only week that saw a material change from the actual prices was the week beginning 4/22.  It sees lower prices at the beginning of the week than I’d forecast, and moved as a result in the week rankings from #12 to #9.

Crowd rankings saw several significant changes.

• Because Christmas breaks extend longer into January than I’d thought they would, the first week of January 2017 saw an increase in expected crowds.
• Disney World’s recent announcement of its involvement in the 2017 Pro Bowl caused me to increase expected crowds in later January.
• And actual 2017 spring break calendars suggest that crowds the week of April 1, 2017 will be higher than I had last forecast.

The most significant change to week rankings from changes in the crowd calendar came for the week beginning 4/1, which moved from a ranking of 14 at the bottom of my list of recommended weeks to a week ranking of 19 near the bottom of my “not so keen” weeks.

As always, I’m sorry about where I got it wrong–especially the week of 4/1. I get one week so substantively wrong every two years or so, and almost always in the spring break seasons, where the moving date of Easter cause a cascade of other effects, not all predictable even though I’ve been doing this for a while now.

But the alternative, delaying any forecasts for the next year until July, when the full set of school calendars and (usually) prices is available–also seems to me a mistake as well, since there’s so much value to being able to plan your trips ahead of time…

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DISNEY WORLD 2017 SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds are governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in mid-August

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the week that includes the 4th of July the busiest week.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June can start well, and then build to high crowd levels.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go as early in June or as late in August as their schedules permit. [Read more →]