Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

OVERVIEW: MARCH 2017 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews March 2017 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

The first week of March can be a great time to go to Disney World, and is so in 2017, up until March 10.  The rest of the month will be lousy–with high prices and high crowds.

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OVERVIEW: FEBRUARY 2017 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews February 2017 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Early February 2017 will have some of the lowest crowds and prices of the year, but also the risk of ride closures.

The end of the month brings slightly higher prices and crowds, but better weather and few closures.

In between–in 2017, the period from Thursday the 16th through Saturday the 25th–we will see high crowds and high prices.

[Read more →]

OVERVIEW: JANUARY 2017 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews January 2017 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Early January 2017 will be dominated by holiday crowds and prices, but after the 6th, most days will see low crowds and low prices–with upticks around the Marathon (weekend of the 9th), the Martin Luther King Day three day holiday weekend, and possibly during the days before the Pro Bowl on January 29.

January is not recommended for first-time visitors who may never return, because of ride closures. For returning visitors–and first timers who know they can return–it’s usually a great time to visit, but the Pro Bowl does add some uncertainty to 2017.

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Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve updated my key planning tools for a 2017 visit to Walt Disney World:

• 2017 Disney World Price Seasons
• 2017 Disney World Crowd Calendar
• 2017 Disney World Week Rankings

(Kelly B can book your 2017 Disney World vacation for you–contact her at KellyB@DestinationsInFlorida.com or 980-429-4499.)

The price season update was based on Disney’s actual price calendar for 2017, published June 21.

The crowd calendar update was based on analysis of the 2016-2017 school year breaks of more than 15.4 million school kids–see this for an example. I analyzed for 2017 almost 280 districts, and too many of these don’t finalize their calendars until June–late June in the case of many Michigan districts, which go on spring break April 1 in 2017…

And the week rankings were revised because actual prices and updated crowd forecasts are major components in their design–with other important factors being as always ride closures, the peak of the hurricane season, and the Disney World holiday program.

After major price season changes in 2016, structural changes to the seasons on 2017 were minor–although the changes in 2017 price levels are interesting. So my forecasts largely held up, and the only week that saw a material change from the actual prices was the week beginning 4/22.  It sees lower prices at the beginning of the week than I’d forecast, and moved as a result in the week rankings from #12 to #9.

Crowd rankings saw several significant changes.

• Because Christmas breaks extend longer into January than I’d thought they would, the first week of January 2017 saw an increase in expected crowds.
• Disney World’s recent announcement of its involvement in the 2017 Pro Bowl caused me to increase expected crowds in later January.
• And actual 2017 spring break calendars suggest that crowds the week of April 1, 2017 will be higher than I had last forecast.

The most significant change to week rankings from changes in the crowd calendar came for the week beginning 4/1, which moved from a ranking of 14 at the bottom of my list of recommended weeks to a week ranking of 19 near the bottom of my “not so keen” weeks.

As always, I’m sorry about where I got it wrong–especially the week of 4/1. I get one week so substantively wrong every two years or so, and almost always in the spring break seasons, where the moving date of Easter cause a cascade of other effects, not all predictable even though I’ve been doing this for a while now.

But the alternative, delaying any forecasts for the next year until July, when the full set of school calendars and (usually) prices is available–also seems to me a mistake as well, since there’s so much value to being able to plan your trips ahead of time…

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DISNEY WORLD 2017 SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds are governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in mid-August

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the week that includes the 4th of July the busiest week.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June can start well, and then build to high crowd levels.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go as early in June or as late in August as their schedules permit. [Read more →]

DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS IN 2017

Walt Disney World Spring Break crowds are typically governed by two and a quarter factors:

• Public school Spring Break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter but vary more than you might think
• The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, and
• The quarter factor, the date of President’s day.  Later President’s Days (which can range from February 15 to February 21) tend to make the first part of March better

An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter can spread the first two factors out, yielding some good early March and early April weeks.

Easter 2017,  on April 16, is late in its possible range. President’s Day 2017–covered in more detail here–is also late, February 20. As a result, my draft 2017 crowd calendar had one good early April week in it.

Now that I have the full set of 2017 spring breaks from almost 280 school districts with more than 15.4 million kids in them, I can see that I was wrong, and in fact there will not be a good spring break week in 2017 from March 11 through the week beginning April 15–although some weeks are better than others.

2017 Spring Break crowds at Walt Disney World will be

• Bad Presidents Day Week
• Fine the weeks beginning February 25th and March 4th
• Bad the weeks beginning March 11, March 18 and March 25
• Moderately bad the week beginning April 1
• Very bad the week beginning April 8
• Moderately bad the week beginning April 15
• Fine April 22 and later.

2017 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Although more and more school districts are moving away from an Easter-centered Spring Break, the plurality of kids still have the weeks before Easter or following Easter off.

As a result, the single biggest factor determining better and worse Spring Break weeks at Walt Disney World is the date of Easter–which can range from March 22 to April 25.

A later Easter has a couple of different effects: first, it spreads out the dates of breaks for school districts that don’t frame their breaks around Easter, and second, if particularly late, will push districts that typically take the week after Easter off into the week before Easter instead, to keep from compressing their May academic calendars.  

An earlier Easter has the opposite effects.  Districts that traditionally try to take the week after Easter off will be able to do so, and districts that don’t base their calendars on Easter will be largely compressed into a couple of March weeks.

The date of President’s Day–which can range from February 15 to February 21–also has an effect. Because many districts both have a spring break and also take the week of President’s Day off, the later President’s Day is, the better early March will be–as parents avoid taking their kids out of school the weeks after a long President’s Day break.

The effect of the various dates in 2017 is to spread most 2017 school spring breaks into six consecutive weeks beginning March 11 and continuing until the end of the week beginning April 15.

ACTUAL 2017 SPRING BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including almost 280 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

(For how the database is built, see the second half of this. Weekends are in black, except Easter, in red. Click the image to enlarge it.)

From my updated 2017 Disney World crowd calendar:

• The week beginning March 4, 2017 has very few kids on break, and I’m classing it as 3/low crowds
• The week beginning March 11 both has a ton of kids on break (thanks, Texas!) and is also attractive to snowbirds. It gets a 9/high crowd rating.
• The weeks beginning 3/18 and 3/25 have slightly lower numbers of kids on break, but are attractive to snowbirds. They get rating of 8/high-minus crowds.
• I had though that the week beginning 4/1 would be OK, but the actual data suggests not.  Less attractive to snowbirds, it gets a crowd rating of 7/moderate+.
• The week before Easter will be a zoo, as it usually is, and gets a crowd rating of 11/highest.
• The week after Easter, even with its alignment with many New England spring breaks, will be a little better than I had thought, and gets a crowd rating of 7/moderate+.
• The rest of April–after the 22nd–will be just fine.
  

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