Category — p. News and Changes

Update 5/1: The party dates are now out, and are as forecast. The pages linked to below now have the confirmed dates.

Disney’s November calendar is out, and based on it, I’ve completed the date forecasts for Mickey’s Not-so-Scary Halloween Party, and published the first set of date forecasts for Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party.

• For the forecasted dates for Mickey’s Not-so-Scary Halloween Party (“MNSSHP”), see this.
• For the forecasted dates for Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party (“MVMCP), see this.

THE HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS AFTERNOON PARADE AND DISNEY WORLD ITINERARIES

This site offers integrated eight night itineraries for every week of the year for first time visitors to Walt Disney World who may never return. The three central itineraries are

• The Summer Itinerary, for the operating patterns and issues faced during the summer and also during other very high crowd times of the year—some not so warm!
• The Basic Itinerary, for the operating patterns and Christmas programs available the three weeks after Thanksgiving, and
• The Autumn-Winter-Spring Itinerary, for operating patterns the rest of the year—although for some weeks some slight modifications are needed

In addition there’s nine variants of these itineraries— eight shorter, and one longer.

And each of these itineraries was designed so that people could see the afternoon parade at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, which had its last known run Saturday April 6.

Now Disney has not yet said whether or not there will be a replacement—although many have inferred that there may not be.

In the absence of confirmation of whether or not a new parade is coming, I’ve taken the Hollywood Studios afternoon parade off of the itinerary images, and will shortly be putting into the daily agendas notes about the cancellation.

MODIFYING HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS ITINERARIES IN RESPONSE TO THE ABSENT PARADE

There’s four different ways the Hollywood Studios parade was treated—see the image for examples of each.

Going left to right in the image, here’s the suggested response:

• Parade at the beginning of a late afternoon visit, on what is otherwise an “off” day: simply go to the Studios an hour later than indicated
• Parade in the middle of a full day in the Studios: just skip over the “parade” steps for an overall shorter and simpler day
• Parade as the last event in the first part of a two part day: simply leave the park around 2.30p rather than 3.30p
• Parade as the first event in the second part of a two-part day: arrive at the Studios at 3.30p instead of by 2.30p.

I’m gonna leave this fix up until it becomes definitive—either by Disney announcement, or simply the passage of time with continued silence—whether a new parade is in or out.

If the parade becomes definitively permanently out, I’ll then re-think the whole approach to the Studios, as Toy Story Mania (or a Fastpass for it) first thing, the parade, and Fantasmic times are the three fundamental beats to which a Studios plan for first time visitors who may never return has to be designed.

Thus the absence of a parade will create much more flexibility in all but the “all day long” itineraries—and might even make a difference there!

But in the meantime, I’m just gonna take these half-steps, so that the itineraries don’t suffer from too much whiplash in case a new parade comes out soon!

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GOODBYE TO THE AFTERNOON PARADE AT DISNEY’S HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS

The Afternoon Parade at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, Pixar Pals Countdown to Fun, had—so far as anyone knows—its last run on Saturday April 6. No explanation has been given, nor any replacement announced.

There’s not much of a loss here—this was a lame parade, especially in comparison to its immediate predecessor, the great Block Party Bash.

But it’s been a while since Disney World has closed a parade with no replacement—the last I can think of is Epcot’s Tapestry of Dreams parade, which I think was the last parade to run at Epcot, and closed in 2003.

So it’s interesting to speculate about why and about what, perhaps, is next.

WHY DISNEY WORLD MAY HAVE SHUT THIS PARADE DOWN

Disney Word shuts stuff down all the time—sometimes, because a new offering just isn’t that good, but most commonly for one of two reasons:

• To create budget or space capacity for something to be fixed or to be created new, or
• To just save money

I’ve written extensively elsewhere about the somewhat perverse characteristics of park operating economics that, to the grave annoyance of fans, can lead Disney to simply cut stuff to save money.

If saving money is the goal, a parade is a great target for elimination.

A parade at a Disney World park involves a ton of labor costs—not just the obvious ones like the wages of the parade performers, but also all the time that other park cast members have to put into tasks ranging from taping out the viewing areas, to crowd control during the parade, to putting everything away and cleaning it up, and even to running extra buses right after it ends—as many guests leave the park right after they see the parade.

Now the complexity on figuring out what come next—that is, a new parade or not– is that even when Disney adds something new, it often does something to cut costs well in advance, so that the portion of the extra development costs that can’t be capitalized are somewhat offset by the cost reductions. This lets budgets be met…but you don’t know if the goal was just to cut costs, or to create space and budget for something new, until the something new is announced…

WHAT MIGHT BE NEXT AT DISNEY’S HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS: CARS LAND?

There’s been some speculation that the Pixar Pals Countdown to Fun parade—and also the Disney Channels Rocks show, also with a lot of staff, also closed—have been shut down so that the road they stage on (Prospect Road) or begin the show on (Hollywood Boulevard) could be repaired, or puffed up with something new. Could be—I don’t know nothing one way or the other.

But my suspicion is that the afternoon parade at the Studios is gone for the foreseeable future.

I get there by noting that the massive change in 2011 from the wonderful Block Party Bash to the lame Pixar Pals Parade only made sense at the time as a cost cutting move.

The result was a lame and widely dissed offering (though I loved seeing Doug), which makes me think that what came out in 2011 was a compromise between those who wanted the parade shut for cost-saving and operational complexity reasons, and those who wanted to salvage any afternoon parade, even one that was a shadow of its predecessor.

But why then close it for good now? And what’s next? Well, a version of Disney California Adventure’s Cars Land at Hollywood Studios has been much rumored, and much wished for, especially after the move of its lead designer, Kathy Mangum, to Disney World last summer.

Given everything Disney has been saying for a couple of years now about smashing down capital spend to “routine” levels after the multi-billion investments in the Disney Cruise Line, Disney California Adventure, Art of Animation, New Fantasyland, and MyMagic+ wind down this year, it’s hard to see where the cash comes from Cars Land at the Studios…

…but there’s a couple of things that have happened since Disney first started talking about ramping down capex that makes me willing to fan the speculation.

• One is that Disney has re-learned the lesson at Disney California Adventure that great new rides, if they bring in more visits and/or relieve congestion at another park, can have a fine payback.
• Second is that Harry Potter has had a second installment announced since then…

I don’t see Avatarland being canceled to pay for Cars Land, if for no other reasons that the Animal Kingdom according to everybody’s math really needs some new “E” Ticket rides for MyMagic+ to work well there.

But in response to what it has learned about the cash flow of Cars Land and to the threat of Harry Potter 2, I can see Disney World working pretty hard to generate extra cash and to deploy more capital than it had already been planning on something like Cars Land at the Hollywood Studios, so long as it can still make the claim to the analyst community that the funds are coming from “routine capital.”

Cars Land at the Studio would likely go into the area now occupied by Lights Motors Action and the Backlot Tour.

See the aerial photo. (Click it to enlarge it.) The bruited-about possible area for Cars Land at Disney’s Hollywood Studios is within the large red circle.

Now note how landlocked this is, because of the way World Drive, the guest entrance road from World Drive, and Buena Vista Drive hem in the park.

The only sensible point right now for construction access is from the cast entrance on Buena Vista (small orange circle). But that’s not an area of Buena Vista that can take much more traffic, and the road from there to the red circle has some turns that construction cranes and such would find awkward.

So maybe Disney’s thinking about generating a construction access point and staging area from the World Drive entrance to the Studios, somewhere around the red X. And maybe that’s the rumored “road that needs to be re-built.”

And maybe that’s why Pixar Pals Countdown to Fun and Disney Channels Rocks are gone—not only to save cash for reinvestment, but also to free up their staging and storage areas for Cars Land construction!

Just speculation…probably wrong…but still fun to dream about!

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WHAT IS FASTPASS+ AND WHY DOES IT MATTER?

Disney’s MyMagic+ program has multiple elements, most tied to an RF communicator reader in either a printed plastic card or, in the works, a wristband.

Of the elements of the program, the one with the highest likely impact on first-time visitors will be Fastpass+, the ability to reserve three or so experiences per day at a park—such as major “headliner” rides, minor rides, fireworks- and parade-viewing spots, and even counter-service restaurants—months before from home.

Most people think, based on Disney World’s tests to date, on simple capacity math, and on the published terms of service, that Fastpass+ will restrict you to the ability to reserve just one or two “headliners” rides per park day, with only one ride on each of them per day.

Depending how this unfolds, it may mean that people will be able to see fewer headliners per day without major waits, especially at the Magic Kingdom, than is the case right now with a good plan and the use of the traditional FASTPASS system.

However, according to the terms of service, once Fastpass+ is operational, if you convert a paper ticket to RF, the paper ticket will be void, and neither it nor the RF device can be used in the traditional FASTPASS system.

(See the red-boxed area of the image, which is a screenshot from the March 28 version of the terms of service. Click it to enlarge it.)

This makes me think the traditional FASTPASS system will remain (at least for a while) for those who don’t or won’t use the new RF based MyMagic+ program.

If this is true, then the value of my crazy idea of buying two park tickets per day—in this case, one regular, and one MyMagic+–will SKYROCKET.

This is because you’ll have two shots at the headliners—one from Fastpass+, and one from traditional Fastpass—that is, one on each ticket.  (However, very little capacity likely will be reserved on the headliners for traditional Fastpasses…which is why relying just on a paper ticket is not a good strategy either.)

Especially at the Magic Kingdom, buying a second, paper, ticket may be in effect Disney’s backdoor way of introducing a version of Universal Express—a means to buy your way out of difficulties the parks otherwise present you.

But regardless, Fastpass+ will make major changes to the best ways to experience the parks, especially for those relying only on it for the services that have been provided by the traditional Fastpass program.

WHEN WILL FASTPASS+ BECOME OPERATIONAL?

For one big and a couple of minor reasons, I think we’ll see the first major sets of park experiences governed by Fastpass+ start October 1 or later.

First, I don’t think the systems are ready.  I’ve stayed in Disney resorts multiple times so far this year, and have had comic systems issues interfere with my experience.  This makes me think the IT behind MyMagic+ is still pretty buggy.

Second, Fastpass+ is unlikely to launch in the busy summer season.  You don’t want to do something this different and new when the infrastructure of the parks is already taxed by summer crowds.

Third, I doubt the launch date will even be announced during the peak of the summer season—e.g.  earlier than August 1.

This is because if the operational launch date is announced, many summer visitors will think it applies to them, even if the announcements are about a go-live date much later.  Anyone who runs a site like this gets a sense of how confusing Disney World is, and how many people will interpret an announcement of a future launch as an announcement of a launch right now.  Putting the announcement of launch off until August misses confusing the bulk of the summer crowds.

An August 1 announcement means an “operational in the parks” launch date no earlier than October 1. This is because there will be at least 60 days notice before Fastpass+ is operational in the parks (you can infer this from the terms of service, which mention 60 days of time to reserve experiences for certain classes of ticket holders).

Finally, there’s something else special about October 1—it’s the effective date of Florida House Bill 1353—and this bill, or a variant of it, matters quite a bit…

Disney World ticket prices make the first few days of a ticket much more expensive than later days.  This means there’s a market for illegal sales of partially-used multi-day tickets, since there’s an opportunity to arbitrage the low cost of the last days to a new buyer who otherwise would have to pay much higher early day prices.

Now Disney’s terms of service make it clear that all MyMagic+ tickets in whatever form are non-transferable, so if you show up with a ticket partially used by someone else, you will be refused admission.  But Florida’s laws against resellers don’t cover non-printed tickets.  Moreover, they have “printing” requirements to signify non-transferability.  HB 1353 would resolve these issues.  And it has an effective date, if passed, of October 1…

(See the red-boxed part of the image, which is from the staff analysis.)

It’s hard for me to see Disney launching a major new ticketing program for which there are no legal penalties for resale of a partially used pass…

…so October 1, 2013 is my bet for the basic operational launch date of Fastpass+, and August 1, 60-ish days before, my bet for the announcement date.

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NEW DISNEY WORLD SUMMER 2013 ROOM RATE DEAL

As expected, Walt Disney World has released a new deal for the summer of 2013.

The new Disney World deal covers most arrival dates from June 13, 2013 through August 14, and needs to be booked by June 14.

The deal follows Disney World’s recent pattern of different discount levels based both on starting price and demand, and also excludes what has typically recently been excluded:

• Save 30%: Animal Kingdom Lodge (standard view), Bay Lake Tower, Beach Club, Beach Club Villas, BoardWalk Inn, BoardWalk Villas, Contemporary, Grand Floridian, Old Key West, Polynesian, Saratoga Springs, and Yacht Club
• Save 20%: The Cabins at Fort Wilderness, Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs, Port Orleans Resort Riverside, The Villas at Wilderness Lodge and Wilderness Lodge
• Save 15%: All-Star Sports, All-Star Music, Art of Animation Family Suites and Pop Century
• Explicitly excluded: Campsites, 3-Bedroom villas, suites, Art of Animation Little Mermaid
• Possibly available at low (e.g. 5%) discount some dates: All Star Movies, Port Orleans French Quarter, other unlisted resorts

For more details, see Disney’s page on this offer.

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NOW AT AN AWKWARD AGE…

Yesterday this site completed its fifth full year of operation.

(This birthday post would have gone up yesterday, but I had more important news to relay.)

Thanks to all of you, the site is continuing to grow and as a result helping even more people.

The site will have its 3.5 millionth visitor all-time visitor since opening in a couple of weeks, 2 million of you have stopped by for a spell over the last 12 months, and the forecast for the next 12 months is almost 4 million of you coming by!

I’m grateful for and humbled by your readership, your help, and your kind words…thanks!!

WHAT’S COMING IN THE NEXT TWELVE MONTHS

In the time between now and the 6th birthday I expect two major developments:

• Revising the itineraries in response to MyMagic+ and Fastpass+–which, for reasons explained here, I’m not seeing as going into large scale operation much before October 1
• Revising the look and feel of the site, for both technical and reader experience reasons.

This site is built on WordPress, and the “theme” the site runs on—NeoClassical by Chris Pearson—is what shapes its look and feel.

I love the typographical clarity of NeoClassical, but it has not been supported for years.  As a result, every time there’s a WordPress upgrade, there’s a risk the site might break, and I can’t take advantage of the newer features released WordPress since NeoClassical was last updated more than 6 years ago.  So a new theme is on the to-do list!

Developing a new theme will also give me a chance to fix some major reader issues:

• Stuff is hard to find, and
• The overall look and feel of the site is too cluttered

You won’t find everything here—based on the comments I get (about 4,000 questions asked, and 4,000 answers given, in the last 12 months) the site is thin on stuff for kids younger than 8, on itineraries focused on just a park (all my itineraries are fully integrated for multi-park long stays) and on best and worst days.

But even so, there’s still a lot here—almost 1500 individual entries, with more coming out at a rate of 3-5 new posts a week!

I have lotsa stuff on how to find things around here—the best option is the search box at the top right of every page. (Try the search box.  It’s delicious!  Don’t believe me? Search for “Wishes”!)

But I think an “accordion menu” on the left side would be a big help—like the one on the left side of MouseSavers.com.  This would allow the navigation section you now see on the left side of this site to expand to be much more detailed and specific than it is right now if needed, while defaulting to something much shorter and less scary.

If I went that way, it’d also make it easier to kill the entire right sidebar, moving the important parts to the left side, in space freed both by the accordion menu, and also by killing the “More Puffery” section.

I’ll also likely re-do the home page so it has its own, new layout.

The current home page intentionally is like the table of contents to an instruction manual which has had its cover pulled off.  For the intended users of this site—first time visitors who may never return—that’s OK.  But over time the site has developed three different types of readers:

1. The intended audience: first timers
2. Returning visitors who are using the more detailed material on the site to shape certain key decisions like when to go and where to stay…
3. Disney fans who like to see what’s new here, and to just generally browse the site

So I’m thinking I may just make the home page three columns, with one column exactly addressing each of these three types of readers….

In addition I’ll continue all the routines that for better or worse the site has fallen into—I’ll revise the 2014 material (the 2014 crowd calendar, price seasons, and week rankings) in the summer, once final prices and final public school breaks are released; the 2014 version of the week picker will come out shortly after that, and in the fall, I’ll publish the first drafts of the core 2015 material.

Having completed the Great Moderate Re-Visit over the last 12 months, and stayed in and reviewed the brand-new Art of Animation Family Suites and Little Mermaid standard rooms, I’ll finish re-visiting and re-reviewing the other Values in the next 12 months; stay in the newly refurbed rooms that are emerging at the Polynesian; and check out the new DVC offering at the Grand Floridian when it opens.

Then there’s the rest of the Fantasyland Expansion that will emerge over the next 12 months…and likely other fun new stuff to check out that we don’t know about yet!

Moreover, I’ll likely need to revise the Harry Potter material for the opening of part two of Harry Potter at Universal Studios—currently rumored for June 2014.

So there’s plenty to look forward to in yourfirstvisit.net’s sixth year!

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