Category — p. News and Changes

2014 AT DISNEY WORLD

The big news for Disney World in 2014 will be

• The continuing roll-out of FastPass+
• The opening of the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train sometime in the “spring,” and
• The impact on Disney of Universal’s expansions

FASTPASS+ IN 2014

FastPass+ continues to be a moving target.  Right now, guests at Disney’s hotels can make reservations for FastPass+ beginning 60 days before their arrival date, everyone at the Animal Kingdom can only use FastPass+ (off-site guests make their reservations that day) and the Swan and Dolphin are in a test.

Over 2014 I expect to see FastPass+ for all extended to the other parks, and for the other parks likely to also restrict the number of headliners per day available (already in place at Epcot and Hollywood Studios).

So far, FastPass+ has been a good thing for first-timers staying in Disney-owned resort hotels, and a bit rough on everybody else–especially repeat visitors who have an already set way of doing the parks on the old FastPass system.

See this for more on FastPass+…

THE OPENING OF THE SEVEN DWARFS MINE TRAIN

The final element if the Fantasyland Expansion, the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, is expected to open in the “spring” of 2014.

This ride, while targeted at the younger set, oughta be fun for everybody.

I haven’t seen any credible rumors on opening besides “spring.”

Spring, to the Wall Street analysts who track these things even closer than bloggers, means March 20 to June 21. Earlier in this window would add capacity for the massive spring break crowds and give Disney something to sell in the slower month of May; later would add capacity for the summer crowds.

My guess?  With FastPass+ so far behind, Disney really needs this ride to be open soon.  So I’d expect it to be open earlier in the spring rather than later…

THE IMPACT OF UNIVERSAL ON DISNEY

Two big things are happening at Universal this year: Harry Potter is expanding from Islands of Adventure into Universal Studios, and Universal is opening its first mid/lower priced hotel, Cabana Bay.

While the Harry Potter Diagon Alley expansion gets the attention, it’s the hotel–which will eventually have 1,800 rooms–that might have the bigger impact on Disney World–and thus Disney guests.

The economics of this are complicated, but here’s the key points:

• The Universal theme parks aren’t really substitutes for the WDW parks so much as they are complements.  Increased numbers of visitors drawn to Orlando because of Harry Potter will, in high proportions, show up at Disney World too. And even if people substitute time at Disney parks for time at Harry Potter, what that typically costs Disney is the lower-priced last days of a ticket.
• Hotels, on the other hand, are indeed substitutes. Someone staying at one is not also paying for another…And the economics of hotels (with their low per-room incremental variable costs) are such that lost revenues–from people shifting from e.g. All-Star Sports and Caribbean Beach to Universal–drop almost directly to the bottom line. Lost food and gift shop revenues have higher variable costs, but still have a bottom line impact.

So while Disney might lose $25 to $50 million on lost park ticket sales from Harry Potter, if Cabana Bay fills entirely at Disney’s expense, the bottom line impact could easily be $100 to $125 million.

The upshot?  If Cabana Bay is wildly successful, look for Disney to increase the value of staying on-site–either by more aggressive deal-making than I am currently foreseeing, much better FastPass+ for onsite guests than off, or both…

MORE ON DISNEY WORLD IN 2014

Here’s more on Disney World in 2014, including

• Disney World 2014 packages and booking dates
• 2014 Disney World deals
• 2014 Disney Armed Forces Salute
• Free Dining in 2014 at Disney World
• The best weeks of 2014 to visit
• 2014 crowds at Disney World

DISNEY WORLD PACKAGES FOR 2014

 You can find 2014 Disney World price seasons here.

You can book a Disney World hotel room up to 500 days in advance. That means you can book all of 2014 on-line, and later dates over the phone.

DISNEY WORLD DEALS IN 2014

Walt Disney World offers specials, discounts, packages deals, and other deals only when, based on its booking rates, it believes it can profitably bump demand by doing so.

The windows it provides for such deals seem to range from a month to nine months ahead. Given this, the more the economy seems to be doing OK, the shorter the notice for these deals likely will be.

As deals launch, you’ll find them here.

For Disney World 2014 military deals and 2014 free dining at Walt Disney World, see below.

DISNEY WORLD MILITARY DISCOUNTS IN 2014

Disney World has announced special discounts for Military families for most of 2014.  See this for more. There’s no telling if this deal will be extended into FY15, or if so, when such an extension will be announced.

FREE DINING AT DISNEY WORLD IN 2014

There’s no guarantee Disney will offer the Disney Dining Plan for free in 2014.

If it does, based on past dates, Disney will most likely offer more free dining in 2014 for much of September, and announce it in the late spring or early summer of 2014.

BEST WEEKS TO VISIT DISNEY WORLD IN 2014

For the best times to visit Disney World in 2014, see 2014 weeks to visit, ranked in order.

A few observations (all reflected in the 2014 week rankings):

• New Year’s Eve 2014 is midweek, so there will be fewer lower-crowd days in January.
• Easter, April 20, 2014, is about as late as it can be, meaning more good late March and early April dates than usual.
• Thanksgiving 2014 is November 27th, almost as late as it can be, meaning more good November days and fewer good December days.

CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD IN 2014

See the 2014 Disney World Crowd Calendar.

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the next best dates, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2014 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2014 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2014 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2015 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2014 price seasons, see this
  • For projected 2015 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

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The heart of it is the home page, which raises all the key questions–some of which you may not have even known about!–and answers them.

Everything here is ranked and rated–weeks, hotels, crowds, dining, prices —everything.

You won’t find wishy-washy “on the one hand, on the other hand” stuff unless you go deep into the site looking for it.

And everything is backed up by direct experience, by analysis, and by numbers.

So I thought it would be fun to bring all the key numbers to one simple infographic!

See (and share!) the image–all the numbers on it are explained below!

• 180 Days–how far in advance Disney’s restaurants are available for booking–and when some of them sell out!
• 60 Days–how long before your arrival you can do on-line check-in, and start scheduling FastPass+
• 8 Nights–How many nights you should stay to allow for theme park visits, naps, swimming, and breaks
• 6 Days–How many days you should devote to the four Disney World theme parks–2+ at the Magic Kingdom, <2 at Epcot, and one each at Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom
• 8 Years Old–if this may be their only childhood visit, about how old your youngest child should be when you visit
• 2 Times as Expensive–how much more hotels will cost if you go at the wrong time
• 3 Times as Long–how much longer you will wait in line if you go at the wrong time
• More than 35–distinct major room variants among the 25+ Disney World hotels–I’ve recently stayed in and reviewed them all
• More than 50— “Table Service” restaurants at Disney World parks and resorts to choose from–all picked for your family!
• 4-5 People–capacity of most Disney World hotel rooms–larger families, see this
• >$5,000–minimum budget for an 8 night Disney World trip for a family of four
• 25-40% Off–what you can save (especially on hotels) from time to time using various Disney World special offers
• Dozens of Hours, and Thousands of Dollars–Time and money you can save by following this site’s instructions!

And…More than 5 Million–one last number, not shown on the infographic: how many people this site has helped so far!

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RESORT AND EXPRESS MONORAILS TO CLOSE PARTS OF WEEKDAYS BEGINNING 1/21/14

The two Magic Kingdom monorail routes around Seven Seas Lagoon—the Express and Resort monorails—will be down on weekdays from 11.30a til 7p beginning January 21, 2014.

This beginning date is the day after the busy Martin Luther King Day weekend. An end date for these weekday closures is not firm, but is expected to be in March.

• The Express Monorail normally goes counterclockwise around Seven Seas Lagoon in a loop from the Transportation and Ticket Center (TTC) to the Magic Kingdom and back to the TTC.
• The Resort Monorail normally goes clockwise around the Lagoon, in a loop that takes it from TTC to the Polynesian, Grand Floridian, Magic Kingdom, and Contemporary, and from there back to the TTC.
• The Epcot Monorail—which goes in a loop from TTC to Epcot and back—is not affected.

The two Magic Kingdom monorails are heavily patronized, serving guests going from TTC to the Magic Kingdom, from the Magic Kingdom to the Epcot monorail station at TTC, and to and among the monorail resorts.

At peak usage—like right after the evening parade–2,000+ people might be on these monorails at once (6 monorails at ~350 people each). That’s the equivalent of around 40 buses or 3 and a half ferryboats…

But—with a few exceptions—weekdays in later January, and much of February, from 11.30a to 7p,  are not the time of peak usage of the Magic Kingdom monorails.

This is especially true since the 3p parade “Celebrate a Dream Come True” has ended its run, and will not be replaced until March with the “Festival of Fantasy Parade.”

I suspect the monorail repairs and afternoon parade hiatus are related to each other, as getting people to the Magic Kingdom in time for it, and even more so out of the Magic Kingdom after it, are the heaviest afternoon uses of the system.

Disney will be providing additional buses (especially to the monorail resorts), motor launches and motor cruisers, and likely will be using its third ferryboat, which usually comes out only during the busier hours of the day, to help people move among the areas served by the monorail during these outages.

Most days, most of the time, with the added ferry this will work OK—although it will take a lot of buses to serve the monorail resorts. Perhaps the new double-sized articulated buses will by then be in service at the larger moderates and values, freeing up older buses—but not drivers?  or capacity in the roads?—for this.

But most of the time, most people should be OK if they add an extra 20 minutes to their transport times.

Guests at the monorail resorts should ask cast members—and other guests—whether walking, the boats or buses seem the best choice, and how much extra time they should plan for.

• Guests at the Polynesian should still be able to walk to TTC, and from there use either the ferry to the Magic Kingdom or the monorail to Epcot. Despite the other construction at the Polynesian, this walkway was still open on my December visit.
• Guests at the Contemporary can walk to the Magic Kingdom. Buses or boats will serve other monorail destinations
• Grand Floridian guests can’t really walk anywhere…so will rely on buses and boats.

Here’s the issues for everyone I foresee:

• There may be capacity crunches many January and February evenings for people trying to get to the 7p Electrical Parade—the most common show time for it on weeknights during the outage.
• The very busy week of Presidents Day will be a zoo.  If I were Disney, I’d not work on the monorails this week but rather stop the work and run them instead.
• Peak Spring Break crowds will begin the week of March 9th.  This almost has to be the real targeted end date for the monorail work…otherwise perhaps Disney is buying another ferry?  Or moving the Liberty Belle out from the Rivers of America to Seven Seas Lagoon?

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As of December 18, 2013, in a new—and perhaps enduring—change, there will be couple of differences at Disney’s Animal Kingdom theme park

• The old Fastpass machines at the Animal Kingdom will be turned off—no paper Fastpasses will be available until further notice, just FastPass+
• Off-site guests will be able to use FastPass+, although they won’t be able to book them ahead of time—just the day of their visit.

As I write this, while you can only book three FastPass+ per day, you can still book all three of your FastPass+ as headliners, which makes planning much easier…if this changes I’ll revise what follows.

Below, I’ll make suggestions for how to handle this in one and two-day itineraries at the Animal Kingdom for on-site guests, and then suggest differences that off-site guests should pursue.

This is a moving target, so things may change. Those who experience this directly: please weigh in with what you discover in the comment form below!

FASTPASS+ PRIORITIES AT DISNEY’S ANIMAL KINGDOM

FastPass+ will be available at Disney’s Animal Kingdom for the following rides:

• Character Greetings at the Adventurers Outpost
• DINOSAUR
• Expedition Everest
• Festival of the Lion King
• Finding Nemo – The Musical
• It’s Tough to be a Bug!
• Kali River Rapids
• Kilimanjaro Safaris
• Primeval Whirl

Of these, the prizes for families with kids old enough to enjoy all the best of Walt Disney World are Kilimanjaro Safaris and Expedition Everest. These rides are wildly popular and build long lines quickly.

After those, on really hot days, Kali River Rapids will be a high priority. You get just soaked on this ride, making it a popular cooling tool late in the day.

Right now, it’s not that hard to see most of the other options. But I expect Dinosaur, Festival of the Lion King (while it’s still open) and Finding Nemo to become harder to see, especially on busy days, simply because many will pick these as their FastPass+ options.

(If your kids are young, you likely want to avoid Everest, Dinosaur, and It’s Tough to be a Bug, and put the Character Greeting as a higher priority.)

FASTPASS+ ITINERARY FOR ONE DAY AT DISNEY’S ANIMAL KINGDOM FOR ON-SITE VISITORS

Book up to 60 days ahead of time via MyDisneyExperience FastPass+ for Kilimanjaro Safaris, Festival of the Lion King, and Finding Nemo—The Musical, for 10.30a or later. If you can, set Nemo for the morning, and the other two in the afternoon. This will lead to less backtracking later!

Arrive at the park at least 45 minutes before the scheduled opening—earlier if during a high crowd week.

When you are let in—typically these days about 15 minutes before the scheduled opening—head immediately to Expedition Everest, ride it, and ride it again if you wish, using if necessary the single-rider line. (You do Expedition Everest at open rather than through FastPass+ because its regular queue is much better than its FastPass+ queue.)

The rest of the morning, while keeping an eye on your return times for your FastPass+ for the nearby Finding Nemo—The Musical, see what interests you in Dinoland: Dinosaur for sure, and, if they appear of interest, the nearby Primeval Whirl and TriceraTop Spin.

After lunch, keeping in mind any FastPass+ return times and the 3.45p parade, see the rest of the shows, rides, and walk-through exhibits, saving Kali River for the end of the day.

Because your later Fastpass+ are both in or near Africa, coordinate them with seeing Pangini Forest trail and also Rafiki’s Planet Watch and its associated Wildlife Express Train. (If time presses, Rafiki and the train are quite skippable.)

FASTPASS+ ITINERARY FOR TWO DAYS AT DISNEY’S ANIMAL KINGDOM FOR ON-SITE VISITORS

Two days at the Animal Kingdom is a bit of a luxury.

The first day, plan to take the morning off, and 60 days in advance or sooner for the afternoon FastPass+ Expedition Everest, Kilimanjaro Safaris, and, at the end of your planned time there, Kali River Rapids.

At the park, see between these the parade, Flights of Wonder, Panagani Forest Trail, Maharajah Jungle Trek, Flights of Wonder, and It’s Tough to be a Bug

For day two, FastPass+ beginning 60 days in advance for the morning but 10a or later Festival of the Lion King, Finding Nemo-The Musical, and Dinosaur. Make Dinosaur the earliest of these.

Arrive at the park at least 45 minutes before the scheduled opening—earlier if during a high crowd week. At open, immediately head to your favorite between Everest and Kilimanjaro from day one, re-ride it, then head to Dinoland and ride the rides there until your Dinosaur FastPass+ is ready.

Catch your other FastPass+, and see what you missed on day 1!

CHANGES TO THE ANIMAL KINGDOM FASTPASS+ STRATEGY FOR OFFSITE VISITORS

During this test, off-site guests will only be able to make FastPass+ bookings in the park, and only using Disney objects—that is, not their own cell phonse or iPads.

Right now, from what I’ve seen on the web, the places off-site guests can sign up for FastPass+ are near

• Creature Comforts, on Discovery Island
• Disney Outfitters, also on Discovery Island
• Expedition Everest, in Asia near Dinoland
• Kali River Rapids, in the heart of Asia
• Primeval Whirl, in Dinoland

(I’m surprised there’s nothing in Africa…)

I don’t know how this will unfold. I expect at the beginning of the test it’ll be a zoo, as off-site guests go to the old Fastpass machines, learn they don’t work, and then mob these off-site FastPass+ distribution points.

If the test sticks around for a while, then, as the word gets out—and it took years for people to understand that the old FastPass system was free with your ticket, not an extra-charge perk—more and more off-site guests will head to the distribution points as soon as the park opens, to lock in their FastPass+ for the day.

FastPass+ One Day Strategy for Off-Site Visitors.

FastPass+ priorities are the same for off-site as for on-site visitors, so here’s what I’d suggest:

• At open, head straight towards Everest.
• If the FastPass+ booking line there is short, then book your FastPass+ for the day (same list as in the one-day itinerary above: Kilimanjaro Safaris, Festival of the Lion King, and Finding Nemo—The Musical, for 10.30a or later, with Nemo for the morning, and the other two in the afternoon). Then ride Everest.
• If the Everest FastPass+ booking line is long, then skip it, ride Everest, and make your way to Kilimanjaro along the path that passes near Kali River Rapids. Check the FastPass+ booking line here; if short, do it; if long, keep going and ride Kilimanjaro stand-by. Then get your FastPass+ for the rest of the day booked after you are off Kilimanjaro, likely at Discovery Island.
• Then follow the rest of the one-day itinerary above, adapting it for your actual FastPass+ and their times

FastPass+ Two Day Strategy for Off-Site Visitors.

Off-site visitors with two days at the Animal Kingdom should start both days by arriving 45 minutes or more before the scheduled park opening.

On day one…

• Start as above—head for Expedition Everest, book FastPass+ there if the booking station is not busy for Kilimanjaro, Kali River at the end of the day, and Finding Nemo. Skip this step if the line for FastPass+ is long. Either way, ride Everest.
• If you did not book FastPass+ before Everest, then book after at either the Everest or Kali River Rapids stations, if not too busy. If they are too busy, then then head for Kilimanjaro.
• If you leave Kilimanjaro without FastPass+, then get them next.
• The rest of the day, see as much of the Animal Kingdom as you can.

On day two, start at whichever of Everest or Kilimanjaro was your favorite, getting FastPass+ at Everest or on the way to Kilimanjaro if the lines aren’t too long, or after if they are. Prioritize for your FastPass+ any key rides or shows you didn’t see on day one, and then anything you want to re-ride!

OK, that’s what I got. Josh of EasyWDW.com published a slightly different approach here that’s also worth a look.   I’ll revise these suggestions as experience proves necessary!

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The next fan meet up, with Jodi from Magical Mouse Schoolhouse, is Wednesday at the Magic Kingdom!

Issue 3 of WDW Magazine is now out—the theme is Christmas at Disney World.

My stuff for first-timers helps sort out which Disney World Christmas programs are must-sees—and which aren’t.

I’m just about done with the next set of 2015 Disney World material.

Projected 2015 Disney World price seasons came out a bit ago, and within the week I’ll have 2015 draft crowd projections and week rankings out.

Lovely Amy Girl and I arrive tonight for our third FastPass+ test.

This trip will also include re-visiting six different room types, so I can freshen up their reviews…

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Hey, there’s an updated version of this itinerary that world much better, here!

Below is a seven night variant of the eight night FastPass+ High Crowd Itinerary.

Look–I’m not particularly keen on this itinerary.

The eight night itinerary is action-packed enough, and creating a seven night variant from it requires cutting out a sleep-in morning, building a really long day at the Animal Kingdom, and cutting the Magic Kingdom back to the bone. So a rough visit becomes even rougher.

But people keep asking for such, so here it is…

Park days, dining and FastPass+ targets are set, so you will be able to make your dining reservations at the 180 day mark and FastPass+ when the 60 day window for FastPass+ sign-ups opens–all covered in the To-Do List for this itinerary.

Your steps for each day are in the following:

Saturday  Sunday  Monday  Tuesday  Wednesday  Thursday  Friday  Saturday

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