Category — n. Approaching Dates at Disney World

OVERVIEW: APRIL 2015 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews April 2015 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Unless Easter is very late, the weeks before and after Easter are terrible times to go to Walt Disney World, with the highest prices and crowds outside of the week between Christmas and New Years. The period beginning a week after Easter, however, is a great time to go.

APRIL 2015 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Massive numbers of kids are on break the week beginning March 28, 2015 and even more the week after. I rank the week of the 28th 10/higher crowds and the week beginning April 4 as 11/highest crowds.

Crowds then diminish the rest of the month, as except for a few northeastern districts the spring break season is over.  I rank the weeks of the 11th and 18th as 4/low-plus crowds and the week of April 25th as 3/low crowds.

See this for more on 2015 crowds at Disney World.

APRIL 2015 PRICES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

On March 29 prices hit 75% higher than the lowest of the year at the values, and 45% higher at the moderates and deluxes.

On April 12, they drop to 16% higher at the deluxes,  20% higher at the moderates, and 25% higher at the values.  They stay at this level through late May.

See this for more on 2015 resort hotel prices at Walt Disney World.

APRIL 2015 DEALS AND DISCOUNTS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Deals are available for April 2015. See this for more.

APRIL 2015 WEATHER AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

April weather completes the shift from the variable and cooler temperatures of winter to the warmer and more consistent temperatures of spring.

For example, at the beginning of April, 60% of the time the daily high will be between 72 and 87.  By the beginning of May, 60% of the time the daily high will be between 80 and 90.

All in, April weather is as good as it gets at Walt Disney World.

Click the image, or go to Weather and When to Go to Disney World, for more on temperatures.

APRIL 2015 SPECIAL EVENTS

The Epcot International Flower and Garden Festival continues throughout April.

APRIL 2015 OPERATING HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Park operating hours vary by the day, and sometimes change without notice. It is rare for hours to be shorter than Disney has publicized, but Disney may lengthen them in response to unanticipated crowds.

The best way to keep up with operating hours is to check Disney’s official calendars, usually available six months in advance.

These calendars can be found by clicking the following links:

• Magic Kingdom Calendar
• Hollywood Studios Calendar
• Animal Kingdom Calendar
• Epcot Calendar

WEEK BY WEEK COMMENTS FOR APRIL 2015 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD BY ARRIVAL DATE

The week rankings that follow below are from 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, and are designed for first-time visitors who do not know whether or not they will return.

Click the image for a calendar view of 2015 weeks (when open, keep clicking to enlarge.)

• 3/28/2015 Highest prices. Higher crowds. Crowd ranking=10. Week ranking=41. Use the FastPass+ High Crowd Itinerary but watch for earlier openings and more morning EMH than it implies
• 4/4/2015 Highest prices. Highest crowds. Crowd ranking=11. Week ranking=44. Use the FastPass+ High Crowd Itinerary but wathc for earlier openings and more morning EMH
• 4/11/2015  Moderate-plus prices.  Low-plus crowds. Crowd ranking=4. Week ranking=14. Recommended week. Use the FastPass+ Lower-Crowd Itinerary
• 4/18/2015  Moderate prices.  Low-plus crowds. Crowd ranking=4. Week ranking=11. Recommended week. Use the FastPass+ Lower-Crowd Itinerary
• 4/25/2015  Moderate prices.  Low crowds. Crowd ranking=3. Week ranking=8. Recommended week. Use the FastPass+ Lower-Crowd Itinerary

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2015 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2016 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2015 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2016 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2015 price seasons, see this
  • For projected 2016 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

Want a second opinion?  Then check out my book lol.

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OVERVIEW: MARCH 2015 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews March 2015 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

The first week of March can be a great time to go to Disney World, and is so in 2015. The rest of March 2015 will be a bear, with high prices and high spring break crowds.

MARCH 2015 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Few kids are on break the first week of March, so I have it rated as low crowd with a crowd ranking of 3.

The next three weeks have large and roughly equal numbers of kids on break, and are also popular with northern families taking their kids out of school and away from the snow.  I have each of the weeks beginning 3/7, 3/14 and 3/21 ranked as high crowd with a crowd ranking of 9.

The week beginning March 28 is the week before Easter, traditionally a horribly-crowded week at Walt Disney World.  In 2015 I’m seeing the week after Easter as worse, and the week before Easter as a little better, than usual. But the week of the 28th will still be lousy, with higher crowds and a crowd ranking of 10.

See this for more on 2015 crowds at Disney World.

MARCH 2015 PRICES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

March hotel prices begin the month at 25% higher than the lowest of the year at the values, 20% higher at the moderates, and 16% higher at the deluxes.

On March 6 they jump to 45% higher at the values, 30% higher at the moderates, and 33% higher at the deluxes.

On March 29 prices go up even more, to 75% higher at the values, and 45% higher at the moderates and deluxes.

See this for more on 2015 resort hotel prices at Walt Disney World.

MARCH 2015 DEALS AND DISCOUNTS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Deals are available for March 2015. See this for details.

MARCH 2015 WEATHER AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

March weather shifts from the variable and cooler temperatures of winter to the higher and more predictable temperatures of spring.

For example, at the beginning of March, 80% of the time the daily high will be 70 or better, but it will be higher than the lower 80s only 20% of the time. By the beginning of May, 80% of the time the daily high will be 80 or warmer, and it will be 90 or higher 20% of the time.

Tornadoes can be an issue during this period. See this for more.

Click the image, or go to Weather and When to Go to Disney World, for more on temperatures.

MARCH 2015 SPECIAL EVENTS

The Epcot International Flower and Garden Festival begins March 4 and continues until May 17.

MARCH 2015 OPERATING HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Park operating hours vary by the day, and sometimes change without notice. It is rare for hours to be shorter than Disney has publicized, but Disney may lengthen them in response to unanticipated crowds.

The best way to keep up with operating hours is to check Disney’s official calendars, usually available six months in advance.

These calendars can be found by clicking the following links:

• Magic Kingdom Calendar
• Hollywood Studios Calendar
• Animal Kingdom Calendar
• Epcot Calendar

WEEK BY WEEK COMMENTS FOR MARCH 2015 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD BY ARRIVAL DATE

The week rankings that follow below are from 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, and are designed for first-time visitors who do not know whether or not they will return.

Click the image for a calendar view of 2015 weeks (when open, keep clicking to enlarge.)

• 2/28/2015  Moderate-plus prices.  Low crowds. Crowd ranking=3. Week ranking=10. Recommended week. Use the FastPass+ Lower-Crowd Itinerary
• 3/7/2015 Higher prices. High crowds. Crowd ranking=9. Week ranking=38. Use the FastPass+ High Crowd Itinerary
• 3/14/2015 Higher prices. High crowds. Crowd ranking=9. Week ranking=37. Use the FastPass+ High Crowd Itinerary
• 3/21/2015 Higher prices. High crowds. Crowd ranking=9. Week ranking=36. Use the FastPass+ High Crowd Itinerary
• 3/28/2015 Highest prices. Higher crowds. Crowd ranking=10. Week ranking=41. Use the FastPass+ High Crowd Itinerary

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2015 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2016 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2015 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2016 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2015 price seasons, see this
  • For projected 2016 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

Want a second opinion?  Then check out my book lol.

Follow yourfirstvisit.net on Facebook or Google+ or Twitter or Pinterest!!

(This page is one of a series explicating Walt Disney World lingo, abbreviations, and FAQ for first time family visitors to Walt Disney World.)

DISNEY’S 2015 INTERNATIONAL FLOWER AND GARDEN FESTIVAL AT EPCOT

Every year from roughly early March through mid-May, Walt Disney World presents the Epcot International Flower and Garden Festival.

In 2015, the Flower and Garden Festival is scheduled for March 4-May 17.

The gardens at Epcot are almost always lovely, and they are at their loveliest during this period.

Disney’s own wonderful landscaping is supplemented by additional plantings, topiary, and specially themed gardens.

Also presented are special programs presenting gardening tips, and weekend concerts.

Likely growing in 2015 is the more emphasis on food we saw beginning in 2013.

See the official Walt Disney World web page for the Epcot International Flower and Garden Festival here.

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DISNEY WORLD 2015 SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds are governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in later August

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the weeks shaped by 4th of July travel the busiest weeks.

Later July is also the traditional South American winter break.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June can start well but then build quickly to high crowd levels.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Summer school calendars have been evolving to earlier August starts and as a result earlier June releases.  This has made early June less good, and mid-late August, better, than in prior years. My 2015 forecasts reflect this.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go as early in June or as late in August as their schedules permit.

2015 PUBLIC SCHOOL SUMMER BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

The beginnings of summer breaks vary more than most people think.

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including 165 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

2015 school breaks are very similar to 2014 school breaks, and there’s no World Cup to depress early summer crowds as there was in 2014.

So in the absence of later school end dates from a renewed polar vortex,  we can expect moderate crowds in early June, building to high levels by the beginning of July, staying high in July, and and beginning to drop again in mid-August.

In 2015 25% of kids are out by the beginning of June; the proportion builds over the rest of the month, with 75% out by June 17 and essentially all kids off by June 27, 2015.

Few families plan their vacation for their first day out of school, so there’s a lag in the effect of these dates on summer crowds that I can’t precisely quantify.

But the upshot is I rate crowds the week beginning May 30 as 7/moderate-plus, June 6 as 8/high-minus, June 13 and 20 as 9/high, and June 27 as 10/higher.  The week of July 4 is rated 11/highest, and the rest of July 9/high. 

Because of the variation noted above in when people do go vs. can go, the weeks of June 6 and 13 may be a little better than I’m rating them, but my data sets won’t let me draw that conclusion.

THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON AND DISNEY WORLD 2014 SUMMER CROWDS

The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November.

It peaks, however, from later August to early October.

(Click the chart; see also Weather and When to Go to Walt Disney World.)

As a result, August crowds at Walt Disney World are affected not only by the end dates of summer breaks, but also by savvy travelers avoiding this potential weather.

Hurricanes rarely impact a Disney World vacation…but savvy travelers with choices in when they can go commonly avoid this period. (Disney knows this of course, and both drops prices and commonly offers free dining during this period to change the value and risk equation.)

As a result, my crowd rankings in August start high then drop over the month. The week of 8/1/15 is rated as 8/high-minus; 8/8 is rated 7/moderate-plus, and 8/15 as 6/moderate.  By 8/22/15 (my birthday!) almost all kids are back in school, and the peak of the hurricane season is clearly in place, so crowd rankings drop to 4/low-plus.

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DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL 2015

Walt Disney World Spring Break crowds are governed by two and a quarter factors:

• Public school Spring Break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter but vary more than you might think
• The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, and
• The quarter factor, the date of President’s day.  Later President’s Days (which can range from February 15 to February 21) tend to make the first part of March better

An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter spreads the first two factors out, yielding some good early March and early April weeks.

Easter 2015, on April 5, is in the middle of its possible range. President’s Day 2015, on February 16th, both is early, and by a quirk of the calendar, is the same week as Mardi Gras–which some southern schools get off as well.

As a result, 2015 Spring Break crowds at Walt Disney World will be

• Horrible Presidents Day Week
• Fine the last week of February and the first week of March,
• Very rough the weeks beginning March 7, 14, and 21
• Horrible the week before Easter–the week beginning March 28
• Really horrible the week after Easter, from April 4 through 11, as more schools than usual are off this week in 2015
• ..and back to fine after April 11

2015 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Although more and more school districts are moving away from an Easter-centered Spring Break, the plurality of kids still have the weeks before Easter or following Easter off.

As a result, the single biggest factor determining better and worse Spring Break weeks at Walt Disney World is the date of Easter–which can range from March 22 to April 25.

A later Easter has a couple of different effects: first, it spreads out the dates of breaks for school districts that don’t frame their breaks around Easter, and second, if particularly late, will push districts that typically take the week after Easter off into the week before Easter instead, to keep from compressing their May academic calendars.  

An earlier Easter has the opposite effects.  Districts that traditionally try to take the week after Easter off will be able to do so, and districts that don’t base their calendars on Easter will be largely compressed into a couple of March weeks.

The date of President’s Day–which can range from February 15 to February 21–also has an effect. Because many districts both have a spring break and also take the week of  President’s Day off, the later President’s Day is, the better early March will be–as parents avoid taking their kids out of school the weeks after a long President’s Day break.

The effect of the various dates in 2015 is to put most 2015 school spring breaks into five consecutive weeks: those beginning March 7, March 14, March 21, March 28 and April 4.

ACTUAL 2015 SPRING BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 165 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

(For how the database is built, see this. Weekends are in black, except Easter, in red. Click the image to enlarge it.)

President’s Day week–not charted–will be more than its usual mess, because of its 2015 overlap with Mardi Gras. I’ve assigned it a crowd ranking of 11/highest.  Crowds will start to show beginning the Thursday before and remain high through the 21st.

Next to no kids are on break between the week after President’s Day and March 6. I rate the week beginning February 21 4/low-plus crowds–higher early in the week, better later.  The week beginning February 28 is rated 3/low crowds. Both of these are recommended weeks.

The weeks beginning March 7, 14 and 21 have a lot of kids on break, and even more visitors coming to take a break from the snow. For 2015, I rate all three as 9/high crowds.

The week of March 28 is the week before Easter, typically the busiest week of spring break at Disney World.

However, in 2015 more kids are on break after Easter than before it, so I have the week beginning the 28th ranked as 10/higher crowds, and the week beginning April 4th as 11/ highest crowds.

Only a few school districts are on break after the week after Easter–and many of these had earlier long breaks in February. So I don’t see any real crowding issues from April 11, 2015 through late May! Almost all of these later spring weeks are recommended.

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DISNEY WORLD CROWDS FROM LATER DECEMBER 2014 TO EARLY JANUARY 2015

Disney World usually sees its highest crowds and prices of the year in the later third of December and the beginning of January, in the week that includes Christmas, and the next week that includes New Year’s Eve.

This is for a pretty basic reason: kids are out of school these weeks.

However, not every school district has the same break schedule.

In 2014/2015, more kids are out  New Year’s week than early in Christmas week, but there’s still plenty enough on break Christmas week to wildly crowd the parks…

SCHOOL BREAKS AND DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Most years, there two typical sorts of breaks:

• Long breakers–districts that take at least 2 full weeks (and three weekends) off
• Short breakers–districts that take off as close to only December 24 to January 1 as they can

In 2014, a Thursday Christmas, and the patterning of school breaks around it, will make it easy for many families to head to Walt Disney World either week.

But the Thursday New Years Day results in next to no schools re-opening Friday January 2 for a one-day week.  Wouldn’t be prudent.

So almost all kids will be off all of New Years week, and unlike some years–like 2013–both weeks will be really lousy all week long.

ACTUAL 2014-2015 CHRISTMAS SEASON SCHOOL BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 160 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

(For how the database is built, see this.)

The weekends are in black and the two holidays–Christmas and New Year’s Day–in red.  Click the image enlarge it.

You can see that many breaks begin Saturday the 20th, with hardly any kids on break before then, but almost 30% of kids are still in school the first two weekdays of Christmas week. By Christmas Eve, though, everyone is out, and pretty much everybody stays out of school through January 4, 2015.  A few–very few–breaks continue past January 4.

So I’m classing both weeks as 11/highest crowds, but of the two, New Year’s week will be a little worse.

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