Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

As explained here, where I cover when kids go back to school, I am kicking off my annual school calendar analysis early this year.

In this post, I am covering fall breaks.

Fall breaks as I define them analytically are periods when kids have at least a three day weekend, after Labor Day and before Veterans Day.

These off days can be for any reasons–they can be labeled as a “Fall Break,” can be simply a three day (or longer) weekend for Columbus Day, or simply can be an artifact of a teacher’s workday/”Professional Development” day being scheduled before or after a weekend. [Read more →]

Every year, with the help of one of my niecelets, I collect the calendars for the upcoming school year for about 15 million US schoolkids—about a third of the US schoolkid population.

I weight these calendars, by state, based on the respective contribution of that state to this website’s visits, graphically analyze them, and use the results to note how the ability of kids to be easily out of school can affect Walt Disney World crowds.

I usually do this work in June, for the simple reason that while some school districts have no trouble posting their calendars for the next three or four years, some districts in some particular states—and yes, I am glaring at you, Michigan, and a bit at you, New Jersey—have problems getting out the next school years’ calendar even by early June.

This year, the niecelet and I launched this work early, as while I had no idea that Star Wars would partially in late August, I did suspect we would get an opening date before my traditional June presentation of this work.

The niecelet turned over to me her first pass through the ~280 districts we track at the end February (we track the 100 largest school districts, regardless of location, and then another 179 large districts mostly east of the Rockies, in states that contribute most of the visitors to this site), and we had then calendars for about 64% of the districts that schooled 69% of the 15.4 million kids we track.

By early April, I declared in victory on this early round of data collection, with calendars for 90% of districts and 89% of kids—13.7 million–in hand. I’ll am now publishing a series on the results of this work, and after the series is out, will be revising the second half of my 2019 crowd calendar.

This first one is about when summer 2019 school breaks end. [Read more →]

Updated June 25, 2019.

On March 7, Disney announced that the new Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge land would partially open at Disney’s Hollywood Studios on August 29.

Crowds in the new land will be a mess, and likely will spill over into the other thrill-style rides at that park. While I don’t see much impact on the other parks, no one knows for sure, and the Labor Day weekend that immediately follows opening day will likely be the busiest such in Disney World history.

I don’t see a huge impact outside the land itself the rest of the month, as it is hard to take kids out of school in September, the partial opening will make visiting specifically to see Star Wars less attractive, and many people will cancel their September trips to avoid the mess entirely.  See this for more.

WHAT IS SEPTEMBER LIKE AT DISNEY WORLD?

September at Disney World combines lower crowds with low prices, and typically also has nice deals as well.

This makes it a great month for returning visitors.

But it has lousy weather, combining continuing summer heat and humidity with the peak of the hurricane season, making me not so keen on the month for first time visitors who may never return.

Note also that picking the right park to visit each day is critical at this time of the year.  See this, and use the comment form below to ask me about your specific dates!

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OVERVIEW: THE BEST TIMES IN 2020 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

For most years in the recent past, this site has recommended arriving at Walt Disney World one of the first three Saturdays after Thanksgiving. However, in 2020, the week beginning the Saturday after Thanksgiving is not as good a choice as the earlier two weeks.

If you can’t or don’t want to go then, presented below are my rankings of all the weeks of 2020 in order of best to worst times to visit Disney World. These rankings are designed for first time visitors who do not know whether or not they will return.

For visitors on a return trip, less concerned about ride closures or the peak of the hurricane season, the later January, early February, later August, and September weeks would be ranked much higher.

These rankings assume that you follow sound touring plans and pick the right parks to visit on the right days–an especially big issue during the party season in the last third of the year.

The rankings are also in calendar order on the image.

These week rankings are based on my  2020 Disney World Crowd Calendar and Disney World’s 2020 price seasons.

Other factors are key as well–the Christmas season, ride closure season and hurricane season in particular.

(For more on how I build these rankings, see this.)

RECOMMENDED 2020 WEEKS AT DISNEY WORLD, RANKED IN ORDER

The ten recommended weeks that follow are \ of the best weeks to visit Walt Disney World in 2020.

Week number one has it all–lower crowds (except on 11/28 itself), lower prices, and wonderful Christmas programs and decorations.

• 1: 11/28/20

Week 2 has most of the strengths of week 1, but has higher prices. Moreover, it is a week that, because of Pop Warner football demand for resort rooms, is rarely discounted. Those intending to stay at a value resort, Caribbean Beach or Coronado Springs should consider avoiding this week, as Pop Warner guests may make those resorts boisterous this week

• 2: 12/5/20

Weeks 3, 4 and 5 are very strong weeks. They have lower crowds and prices (with slightly higher crowds over the first weekend of week 4), and Disney World’s holiday program at the Magic Kingdom will be fully in place for week 3 and largely in place for week 4

• 3: 11/14/20
• 4: 11/7/20
• 5: 10/24/20

Weeks 6 through 9 are all in the same 2020 post-Easter stretch, and share lower crowds, moderate prices, and (especially in weeks 6 and 7) nice spring weather. They are  in calendar order, as the weather is better earlier in this period, with humidity and rain arriving sometime in mid- to later May.

• 6: 4/25/20
• 7: 5/2/20
• 8: 5/9/20
• 9: 5/16/20 (worse the second weekend)

Week 10 is your best spring break week

• 10: 2/22/20

This completes the weeks in 2020 that are recommended for first-time visitors to Disney World who may never return.

2020 WEEKS I’M NOT SO KEEN ON

Weeks 11-23 all have moderate crowd levels, with different prices and weather. I don’t particularly recommend moderate-crowd weeks for first time visitors, but with good plans they are quite manageable if you have to pick one, and are fine for returning visitors.

I present them in two groups. Weeks 11 to 17 are outside the heat and humidity of summer, while weeks 18 through 23 are during the summer.

The first group is in order of least to most crowded, and weeks with similar crowd forecasts are sorted by price.

• 11: 10/31/20. “Jersey Week”—teacher meetings in New Jersey, leading to a massive temporary immigration of New Jersey families to Orlando. Crowds moderate-minus, prices low to moderate, rarely with major discounts.
• 12: 10/17/20. Similar to week 5 but with more crowds from the tail end of fall breaks.
• 13: 4/18/20. This week was on my draft list of recommended weeks, but slightly higher crowds in my latest forecast now shift it here.
• 14: 2/29/20. This week was recommended in many prior years, but creeping attendance leading to moderate crowds has caused me to demote it
• 15: 12/12/20. Despite its high prices, this week had been ranked in my top 3 every year since I started providing this list. However, attendance this week has crept up–even though hardly any kids are on break during it–so I am now calling it a moderately-crowded week. Good choices in your daily plans and in particular in which park to visit which day can make it fine, but my logic forces me to take it off of the “Recommended Weeks” list, as I can no longer call it a “low crowd” week.
• 16: 3/7/20. The shift in 2020 of many spring breaks (e.g. half of Texas) from this week to next makes it a better bet than the same period many prior years
• 17: 3/28/20. Actual spring break data has led me to lower the crowd forecast for this week to from “high” to “moderate plus,” so it joins this list

The 6 moderate crowd summer weeks that follow are in calendar order, as on average weather is better earlier in the summer.

• 18: 5/30/20
• 19: 7/4/20
• 20: 7/11/20
• 21: 7/18/20
• 22: 7/25/20
• 23: 8/1/20

Weeks 24-32 have one thing in common: they occur during the peak of the hurricane season. Hurricanes are rare and even more rarely affect a Disney World vacation, but for first-timers who may never return, why not just avoid the risk? For returning visitors, though, the low-crowd weeks that can be found among this group can be wonderful times to visit, and many of them traditionally see what can be a great deal, Free Dining.

These peak hurricane season weeks are ranked in order of first crowd levels, and within the same crowd level prices.

Week 24 has some of the lowest crowds of the year

• 24: 9/12/20

Weeks 25 has slightly higher crowds…

• 25: 9/19/20

…and Week 26 just a bit higher

• 26: 8/29/20

Weeks 27-29 have slightly higher crowds, but still in my “low” class, and are sorted by price.

• 27: 8/22/20
• 28: 9/5/20
• 29: 9/26/20

Weeks 30 to 32 are the moderate-crowd weeks in this hurricane group.

• 30: 8/15/20
• 31: 10/3/20
• 32: 8/8/20

2020 WEEKS TO AVOID AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

There’s two groups of weeks to avoid in 2020: high crowd weeks and weeks when some rides are often closed.

The first group, ranked 33-47, should be avoided because of crowds that traditionally range from high to unbelievable.

This group includes later June, and early July. It also includes the busy March spring break weeks beginning 3/14/2020, and the holiday weeks—President’s Day week, the weeks before and after Easter, Columbus Day week, Thanksgiving week, and the weeks around Christmas.

See the table above for exact rankings within these lousy weeks.

The next group includes the January and early February weeks when rides are often closed for repair or refurbishment—weeks 48-53.

Some of these weeks have among the lowest crowds and lowest prices of the year. However, this is the peak time for ride closures at Walt Disney World, especially the January weeks.

If this may be your only family visit, why go when you know some of the best of Disney World will probably be closed?

If you must go during this period, avoid the first days of January (massive crowds), and the Martin Luther King Day (1/18/20 arrival date) holiday weekend.

The Marathon (affecting especially the weekend of 1/11/20) complicates Disney World as well, although it has little impact on park crowds.

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WHAT IS AUGUST LIKE AT DISNEY WORLD?

Updated June 25, 2019.

On March 7, Disney announced that the new Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge land would partially open at Disney’s Hollywood Studios on August 29.

Crowds in the new land will be a mess, and likely will spill over into the other thrill-style rides at that park. While I don’t see much impact on the other parks, no one knows for sure, and the Labor Day weekend that immediately follows opening day will likely be the busiest such in Disney World history.  See this for more.

There are no great times for first-timers who may never return to visit in August. Kids start going back to school in August, so crowds (and most prices) go down later in the month–but that’s also when the peak of the hurricane season kicks off.

Note however, that the last three summers have been unusually good at Disney World in terms of crowds. If this trend continues, then August will be better earlier in the month than I’ve noted.

Hotel prices begin the month low at the deluxes and stay low all month long. Prices begin the month OK at the moderates, and high at the values. Values prices drop to moderate levels on 8/11, and on 8/25 prices drop to among the lowest of the year at the values. Moderate prices also change these dates, but stay within the general band of 10-20% higher than the lowest of the year.

Ticket prices are low in the later two-thirds of the month.

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2020 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The chart lower on the page shows my forecasts for 2020 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.

2020 will be an interesting year at Disney World, with the new land Galaxy’s Edge dominating the news early in the year, but after that other new rides opening, and Disney World beginning its 50th anniversary celebration later in the year.

More on 2020 at Walt Disney World is here.
[Read more →]