Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

OVERVIEW: THE BEST TIMES IN 2016 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

This site recommends arriving at Walt Disney World one of the first three Saturdays after Thanksgiving.

If you can’t go then, presented below are my rankings of the weeks of 2016 in order of best to worst.

The ranking is designed for first time visitors who do not know whether or not they will return.

For visitors on a return trip, less concerned about ride closures, the later January and early February weeks would be ranked much higher–with the Marathon and Martin Luther King Day weeks being the worst of these.

These week rankings are based on my 2016 Disney World Crowd Calendar and on 2016 Walt Disney World price seasons.

Other factors are key as well–the Christmas season, ride closure season and hurricane season in particular.

(For 2017 rankings, see this, and for 2018 rankings, see this.)

RECOMMENDED 2016 WEEKS, RANKED IN ORDER

The fifteen recommended weeks that follow are wonderful weeks to visit Walt Disney World in 2016.

Week number one has it all–lower crowds, low prices and wonderful Christmas programs and decorations. The first Saturday of this week overlaps with Thanksgiving crowds, but the rest of it will be marvelous:

• 1: 11/26/16.

Weeks 2 and 3 have many, but not all, of the strengths of week 1:

• 2: 12/3/16. Largely a terrific week with low crowds, low prices and wonderful holiday programs. However, this is a week that, because of Pop Warner football demand for resort rooms, is rarely discounted beyond its already low prices. Those intending to stay at a value resort should consider avoiding this week and target week 1 instead, as Pop Warner may make the value resorts crowded and boisterous this week
• 3: 12/10/16. A week as good as week 1 on crowds and holiday programs. Much more expensive, however, than weeks 1 or 2

Weeks 4 is a very strong week. It has low crowds and prices, and most of Disney World’s holiday program except at Epcot will be in place

• 4: 11/12/16

Weeks 5 and 6 share great late autumn weather and have low crowds. These are near-tied, but are in calendar order as the better weather is earlier this time of year

• 5: 10/22/16
• 6: 10/29/16

Week 7  has great late spring weather, low crowds but moderate prices.

• 7: 4/9/16

Weeks 8 is your best 2016 Spring Break bet, with low crowds and moderate prices

• 8: 2/27/16

Week 9 is similar to weeks 5 and 6, but with higher prices

• 9: 10/15/16

Weeks 10 through 13 are similar to week 7, but with slightly higher crowds. They are in calendar order as the better weather is earlier.

• 10: 4/16/16
• 11: 4/23/16
• 12: 4/30/16
• 13: 5/7/16

Week 14 is similar to week 8, but with slightly higher crowds, especially at the beginning of the week

• 14: 2/20/16

Week 15 is similar to week 7, but with higher crowds and prices at the beginning of the week. This week may end up with higher crowds than I am forecasting, but such would move down just a spot or two in the rankings.

• 15: 4/2/16

This completes the weeks in 2016 that are recommended.

WEEKS I’M NOT SO KEEN ON

Weeks 16-21 all have moderate crowd levels, with different prices and weather. I don’t particularly recommend moderate-crowd weeks for first time visitors, but they are manageable, and I would go myself such weeks with no hesitation.

They are in order of least to most crowded, and within crowd groups are sorted by price.

• 16: 5/14/16. Similar to week 13 but with higher crowds and more summer-like weather. Crowds moderate. Prices moderate
• 16: 11/5/16. “Jersey Week”—teacher meetings in New Jersey, leading to a massive temporary immigration of New Jersey families to Orlando. Crowds moderate-minus, prices low to moderate, almost never with major discounts. A little more crowded in 2016 than recent years, because Veterans Day falls on Friday of Jersey Week.
• 18: 5/21/16. Similar to week 17, slightly more heat and humidity and crowds.
• 19: 10/8/16. Columbus Day week with higher crowds and prices than the great weeks (ranked 9, 5 and 6) that follow it
• 20: 8/6/16. Moderate-plus crowds as the summer season begins to fade away
• 21: 6/4/16.  Beginning of summer–similar crowds to week 20, but higher prices in deluxes

Weeks 22-29 have one thing in common: they occur during the peak of the hurricane season. Hurricanes are rare and even more rarely affect a Disney World vacation, but for first-timers who may never return, why not just avoid the risk? For returning visitors, though, the low-crowd weeks among this group can be wonderful times to visit.

They are ranked in order of first crowd levels, and within the same crowd level prices.

Weeks 22, 23 and 24 have among the lowest crowds and lowest prices of the year.

• 22: 9/10/16
• 23: 9/3/16
• 24: 9/17/16

Weeks 25 and 26 are similar, but with slightly higher crowds than 22-24

• 25: 8/27/16
• 26: 9/24/16

Week 27 is at the outer range of low crowds

• 27: 8/20/16

Weeks 28 and 29 are the only moderate-crowd weeks in this hurricane group

• 28: 10/1/16
• 29: 8/13/16

2016 WEEKS TO AVOID AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

There’s two groups of weeks to avoid:  high crowd weeks and weeks when rides are often closed.

The first group, ranked 30-47, should be avoided because of crowds ranging from high to unbelievable.

This group includes all of later June, July and early August (massive crowds, higher prices). Prices go down in Deluxes starting in mid-July, and in the other resorts in mid-August.

It also includes the busy March Spring Break weeks beginning 3/5/2016, and the holiday weeks—President’s Day week, the weeks before and after Easter, Thanksgiving week, and the weeks around Christmas.

Click the table for exact rankings within these lousy weeks.

The next group includes the January and early February weeks when rides are often closed for repair or refurbishment—weeks 48-53.

Many of these weeks have the lowest crowds and lowest prices of the year.

(But not all--click the table above.)

However, this is the peak time for ride closures at Walt Disney World, especially the January weeks.

If this may be your only family visit, why go when you know some of the best of Disney World will be closed?

If you must go during this period, avoid the first few days of January (massive crowds), and the Martin Luther King Day (1/16/16 arrival date) holiday weekend.

The Marathon Weekend (affecting arrival dates of 1/2 and 1/9/16) complicates the parks as well.

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2016 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The chart lower on the page shows my forecasts for 2016 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.

Dates in it are the beginning of the week, and the forecast covers the recommended Saturday-Sunday 9 day stays.

(For 2017 crowds, see this, and for 2018 crowds, see this.)

Crowd levels are ranked by week from 1-11 in the following way:

1: Lowest of the year

2: Lower

3: Low

4: Low-plus

5: Moderate-minus

6: Moderate

7: Moderate-plus

8: High-minus

9: High

10: Higher

11: Highest

HOW TO INTERPRET THE 2016 DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR

Dates are the beginning of the week.

The “low crowd” weeks–those colored green, and rated 1-4–represent the only crowd levels a family visiting for the first time, and unsure if it will ever return, should consider.

However, lower crowds, especially lowest crowds, do not always mean a better week. The lowest weeks are often best avoided by first timers who may never return because they are in the hurricane or the ride closure seasons.

The “moderate crowd” weeks–those in black and rated 5-7–have crowd levels I would not particularly recommend to first time visitors, though the crowds can be managed with careful planning and lots of early mornings. However, I’d go during such weeks myself with no hesitation, and think these levels are OK for returning visitors who don’t need to see everything and already know how to work Walt Disney World.

The “high crowd” weeks–those in red, rated 8-11–should be avoided by everyone. They aren’t, which is why they are so high.

MY DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR GOES UP TO “11”

The influence of the Unofficial Guide  and TouringPlans.com has led almost all Disney World crowd calendars to top out at 10.

However, I’ve always thought that the really nastiest weeks of the year deserved an 11 for emphasis.

So, in homage to Spinal Tap, I assigned 11 to “highest.”

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2016 RESORT PRICE SEASONS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The material below shows resort price seasons at Walt Disney World at different times of the year in 2016.

(For 2017 prices, see this, and for 2018 prices, see this.)

Only one-day ticket prices vary over the course of the year–multi-day tickets do not, although they typically have an annual increase during the year. See this for more on ticket prices.

Resort prices, however, can be almost twice as high during some periods as they are at others.

2016 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS

Below are Walt Disney World 2016 resort price seasons by resort type. 

“X% Higher” means compared to the lowest prices of the year. Because these increases are different on some weekends vs. weekdays, increases are averaged across the recommended 8 night visit.

In addition to the details below, Disney ups prices an additional $10-50 per night during certain weekends and holidays–particularly over the Marathon weekend, Martin Luther King Day weekend, Memorial Day weekend, 4th of July weekend, and Columbus Day weekend.

You can see–well, maybe you can see–the full prices over the year from the chart above.

2016 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: VALUE RESORTS

• Lowest of year–the value season—begins 1/3/16
• 25% higher–the regular season-begins 2/7/16
• 45% higher–the peak season–begins 2/11/16
• 25% higher–the regular season-begins 2/21/16
• 45% higher–the peak season–begins 3/4/16
• 60% higher–the Easter season–begins 3/20/16
• 25% higher–the regular season–begins 4/3/16
• 45% higher–the summer season–begins 5/27/16
• 25% higher–the regular season–begins 8/14/16
• 10% higher–the fall season–begins 8/19/16
• 25% higher–the regular season–begins 9/18/16
• 10% higher–the fall season– begins 10/30/16
• 50% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/19/16
• 10% higher–the fall season—begins 11/26/16
• 45% higher–the peak season–begins 12/11/16
• 65% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/22/16

2016 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: DELUXE RESORTS

• Lowest of year–the value season—begins 1/3/16
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 2/7/16
• 30% higher–the peak season–begins 2/11/16
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 2/21/16
• 30% higher–the peak season–begins 3/4/16
• 45% higher–the Easter season–begins 3/20/16
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 4/3/16
• 10% higher–the summer season–begins 5/27/16
• 3% higher–near-lowest of year–the value season 2—begins 7/10/16
• Lowest of year–the value season—begins 8/14/16
• 12% higher–the regular season 2–begins 9/23/16
• 6% higher–the fall season–begins 10/16/16
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 11/4/16
• 6% higher–the fall season–begins 11/13/16
• 20% higher during Thanksgiving begins 11/22/16
• 6% higher–the fall season, with low prices, begins 11/26/16
• 30% higher–the peak season–begins 12/11/16
• 55% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/22/16

2016  DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: MODERATE RESORTS

• Lowest of year–the value season—begins 1/3/16
• 20% higher–the regular season-begins 2/7/16
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 2/11/16
• 20% higher–the regular season-begins 2/21/16
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 3/4/16
• 45% higher–the Easter season–begins 3/20/16
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 4/3/16
• 15% higher–the summer season–begins 5/27/16
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 8/14/16
• 10% higher–the fall season–begins 8/19/16
• 20% higher–the regular season–begins 9/18/16
• 10% higher–the fall season–begins 10/30/16
• 50% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/19/16
• 10% higher–the fall season—begins 11/26/16
• 25% higher–the peak season–begins 12/11/16
• 50% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/22/16

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I’ve recently published the final revision of the weeks of 2015 ranked in order of how good they are for a family on their first visit to Walt Disney World who may never return.

This page explains how they are built.

HOW THE WEEK RANKINGS ARE BUILT

Basically, I chunk up the weeks of the year based on certain criteria I’ll get to in a minute, and then sort within each chunk based first on crowds, and then, within the same crowd level, prices.

“WEEKS TO AVOID” AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The worst chunk for first time visitors who may never return is the ride closure season—early January to shortly before President’s Day.

There’s some great weeks among the affected six 2015 weeks for returning visitors, but for those who may be on their only visit ever, times when terrific rides are commonly closed are to be avoided, and show up at the bottom of my list.

The next-worst chunk is the weeks with high crowds—twenty summer, spring break, and holiday weeks. These show up next to last—sorted, as are the ride closure weeks, first on crowds, and then on prices.

These two chunks together I class as “Weeks to Avoid.”

Taking out these two chunks leaves 27 low to moderate crowd weeks that aren’t in the ride closure season

“WEEKS I’M NOT SO KEEN ON” AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

From these, the first chunk taken out is the 8 peak hurricane season weeks.

Like the ride closure weeks, there’s some great options among these for returning visitors, but the (admittedly low) risk of vacation disruption from hurricanes leads me to downgrade these for those who may never return.

This leaves 19 low to moderate crowd weeks that are in neither the ride closure season nor the peak of the hurricane season.

The worst rated of these 19 weeks are in the chunk of 5 weeks with moderate crowds.

These two chunks together I class as “Weeks I’m not so keen on.”

“RECOMMENDED WEEKS” AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

That leaves 14 weeks with low crowds which are in neither the peak hurricane nor ride closure seasons. These weeks are this site’s “Recommended Weeks.”

They are divided into two groups—those in the Christmas program season and those outside of it.

The 3 Christmas program weeks are top-ranked; the remaining weeks are then sorted as usual based first on crowds and then on prices.

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the next best dates, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2014 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2014 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2014 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2015 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2014 price seasons, see this
  • For 2015 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

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Every year I publish in the fall a draft Disney World crowd calendar for the year starting 15ish months from then.

I then update it in the next summer based on analysis of US school calendars–which are more varied than you’d think, and also come out in many cases a lot later than you’d think.

I’ve finished this year’s school calendar analyses–see this for an example–and have now published the resulting slightly modified 2015 Walt Disney World crowd calendar.

When I worked on it last year, 2015 looked like a pretty straightforward year to forecast–no late Easter, no World Cup affecting the summer. And the results of the schoolkid analysis bear this up. Only four weeks had their crowd ratings change, and none changed enough to shift categories–that is, none shifted from “low” to “moderate,” or from “moderate” to “high.”

You can find the 2015 Disney World Crowd Calendar–final except for typos (less common in my math than my writing, thank God) or unexpected changes–right here.

Based on it and the 2015 price seasons that came out last week, I’ll next be turning to the 2015 Week Rankings, and should have a revised version of them out soon!

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DISNEY WORLD 2015 SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds are governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in later August

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the weeks shaped by 4th of July travel the busiest weeks.

Later July is also the traditional South American winter break.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June can start well but then build quickly to high crowd levels.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Summer school calendars have been evolving to earlier August starts and as a result earlier June releases.  This has made early June less good, and mid-late August, better, than in prior years. My 2015 forecasts reflect this.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go as early in June or as late in August as their schedules permit.

2015 PUBLIC SCHOOL SUMMER BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

The beginnings of summer breaks vary more than most people think.

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including 165 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

2015 school breaks are very similar to 2014 school breaks, and there’s no World Cup to depress early summer crowds as there was in 2014.

So in the absence of later school end dates from a renewed polar vortex,  we can expect moderate crowds in early June, building to high levels by the beginning of July, staying high in July, and and beginning to drop again in mid-August.

In 2015 25% of kids are out by the beginning of June; the proportion builds over the rest of the month, with 75% out by June 17 and essentially all kids off by June 27, 2015.

Few families plan their vacation for their first day out of school, so there’s a lag in the effect of these dates on summer crowds that I can’t precisely quantify.

But the upshot is I rate crowds the week beginning May 30 as 7/moderate-plus, June 6 as 8/high-minus, June 13 and 20 as 9/high, and June 27 as 10/higher.  The week of July 4 is rated 11/highest, and the rest of July 9/high. 

Because of the variation noted above in when people do go vs. can go, the weeks of June 6 and 13 may be a little better than I’m rating them, but my data sets won’t let me draw that conclusion.

THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON AND DISNEY WORLD 2014 SUMMER CROWDS

The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November.

It peaks, however, from later August to early October.

(Click the chart; see also Weather and When to Go to Walt Disney World.)

As a result, August crowds at Walt Disney World are affected not only by the end dates of summer breaks, but also by savvy travelers avoiding this potential weather.

Hurricanes rarely impact a Disney World vacation…but savvy travelers with choices in when they can go commonly avoid this period. (Disney knows this of course, and both drops prices and commonly offers free dining during this period to change the value and risk equation.)

As a result, my crowd rankings in August start high then drop over the month. The week of 8/1/15 is rated as 8/high-minus; 8/8 is rated 7/moderate-plus, and 8/15 as 6/moderate.  By 8/22/15 (my birthday!) almost all kids are back in school, and the peak of the hurricane season is clearly in place, so crowd rankings drop to 4/low-plus.

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