DISNEY WORLD TEMPERATURES
The chart shows Disney World high temperatures by day for the entire year.
It depicts 80th percentile, 50th percentile, and 20th percentile high temperatures, based on 20 years of weather data.
You interpret it most easily like this: for example, “On March 1, there is a 20% chance that the high temperature will be around or lower than 68, an 80% chance it will be higher than around 68, and a 20% chance it will be around 83 or higher.”
The key takeaway is that highs are not reliably (80% chance or better) above 75 between the beginning of November and the end of March…and that the summer is really hot…
Or here’s another way to think about the chart:
The pink line in the middle is the typical high temperature. Mathematically it’s the median, which means there’s a 50-50 chance the high will be lower or higher than the pink line.
Or to think another way, if you were there two days in a row, typically one day would have a high above the pink line, one a high below it, and the average of the highs of the two days would be the pink line.*
But that raises the question of how much above or how much below the pink line.
And that’s what the blue and yellow line are meant to communicate. The short version of the blue and yellow lines is that the closer together they are, the more likely the actual high temp will be pretty close to what’s signaled by the pink line. The wider apart they are–as they are in November through February–the more the highs can be well above, or well below, what the pink line expresses.
So here’s another way to think of it.
If you go on a five day trip, the odds are that three of the five days will have high temperatures between the blue and yellow lines, one day will have a high below the blue line, and one well have a high above the yellow line. And the average high of all five days will be the pink line!
The whole point of all this is that there’s broad stretches of the year when the “typical” (pink line) high temp can be a lot lower than, or a lot higher than, what you actually see!
*Yes I know average and median aren’t the same, and what I really should have said is that if you went the same day two different years rather than two days in a row, etc, but I’m looking for comprehensibility, not accuracy…since the data is continuous the second statement is fairly accurate, and because variability is fairly symmetrical around the mean, the median and mean are pretty close…
DATA SOURCES
All this site’s weather pages except for the material on cyclonic storms and on tornadoes are based on 20 years of data from the National Weather Service ending in December 2006. The cyclonic storm material is based on 30 years of data from Wikipedia. The tornado material is from NOAA/NCDC and goes from 1950 through October 2009.
ORLANDO WEATHER LINKS
- Weather and When to Go
- High Temperatures Year Round
- Average Rainfall by Arrival Date
- Hurricanes
- Tornadoes
- Chance of Winter High Temperature Over 75
- Pool Days November through February
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Hello,
I am planing to arrive April 9th and stay until 15th of April. Do you suggest these days as low crowd and also a pleasant weather? I have 7, 5 and 3 year old. This will be our first ever visit to Disney. Thank You!
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Saqib, yes! See this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2015/09/22/april-2016-at-walt-disney-world/
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Hi I’m thinking of coming to Disney World at the end of August and I will be going on almost 6 months pregnant what is the weather like at that time of year. Thank You
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Randi, it is typically very hot and very humid. See this for more.
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Hi, we are travelling to disney on 21st August 2014 for 10 days from the UK. Its our first trip to USA, and our lifetime dream to be able to go. This is our one and only chance to get out there, and I feel the pressure is on for us to experience the magic!! (Trust me, this holiday has taken over 10 years to save for!)
I really want it to be special, so trying hard to plan daily itineraries, but its a mammoth task!! We are planning to go for the parks opening then come back to villa ( staying off site) for a few hrs rest – then back to parks late afternoon through to evening. My kids have never been abroad so very worried about coping in the hot humid weather! (They are 9 and 7 yrs.) Which parks are best to avoid on which days please? I dont know what to expect – I can imagine it will be packed, and worried about mega long queues, and being unable to cope in the heat, and its now only 6 weeks away and feel no further forward with planning whatsoever! We are so excited – I can’t begin to tell you how much…..
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Jules, take a look at this and its daily itineraries: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2014/01/14/fastpass-itinerary-for-lower-crowd-weeks/ It’s not an exact fit for your dates, but it’s close. Note that in it days are days, so “First Saturday” means “Saturday, not “Day 1.”
You need to book your dining and your FastPass+ now, so take a look and see if you can work with it!
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Dave,
Though I live near Disneyland, I am a WDW Fan and have the opportunity to go again at the end of July along with my husband and stay free in his hotel room that coincides with a business trip. I have been 6 times and we only stayed off site the first time, but I will live not staying on Disney property this time. My main concern lies with the weather, I have been to Orlando in late June on a non Disney trip and the weather was miserable heat and humidity, its made me really worried about not finding the magic. I am not sure if I hit a really bad year or if its gonna be this awful. I saw you mention in a reply that you would not recommend a specific time of year for a family but that you would be able to handle it. This trip would just be my husband and me, should I suck it up? Are the night time temps tolerable?
Merilee
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Merilee, what whomps us all is the humidity. You can have fun, especially as you note if you avoid the afternoons. But if it’s 94 with 99% humidity at 7a, it still is lousy. Just keep your expectations low and hope for drier days!!
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Purva, just look at Disney’s calendar–that will tell you EMH days and thus days to avoid. The only good park tomorrow is Epcot. Tuesday avoid Epcot. Weds, avoid AK. Thurs, AK will be ebst, and Epcot and MK worst.
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hi dave,
any word on which rides or parks to go to on which days yet? i didn’t see anything on your post. if you can, please guide us
thanks
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hi dave,
sorry it took me so long. we will be there from 11/22 to 11/29 — 11/22 is free and from 11/23 to 11/28 (6day) we have park hopper passes. thanks again
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Purva, the key is to arrive at the parks BEFORE they open, avoiding parks on the days they have morning extra magic hours–as those days lots of people staying at WDW hotels will get in before you. Give me your exact dates and I’ll tell you which parks to avoid which days. See first thing the rides that build long lines quickly, then as they build lines use fastpasses to ride them later.
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hi dave,
no we are booked at the point resort.
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hi dave,
i just booked our trip over thanksgiving weekend and then found your site. i am worried about the lines and packed crowds. how do i best manage this trip. we are a family of 4 with kids 10 and 3 y/o. we do have the park hopper tickets if that helps in any way.
thanks so much
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Purva: are you staying at a WDW hotel?
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Hi Dave, this is awesome. Thank you. We are suppose to go to Disney for just one night November 14th 2o13 we were going to go to the Christmas event with my 2 1/2 year old, but since the oct festivities have started, she loves the rides, wondering if we should skip the Christmas event and just do the park all day till they close at 7;00 how do you think this day will be on crowds? If we did the Christmas event only, do you think there would be enough time for the rides too? Also, could you tell me what you think the must see is for her? Thank you so much!!
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Tonya, I don;t really have an opinion on must sees for kids that young–my opinions start at about 5 years old.
That day will not be too crowded becasue of the early close, but Disney hotel guests get to enter an hour early, so you will see lines as soon as you arrive–unless you are staying at a Disney hotel yourself…
Between your two choices, I’d go for the arrive as early as you can and spend the day…
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We are planning a December visit this year. I want to be prepared with appropriate clothing but do not want to pack for 4 seasons! Any suggestions on must haves for this time of the year?
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Sharmon, you are kinda stuck. Hi temperatures can be in the 30s or the 80s…so both shorts and coats are in order…
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Ok… here is a question because I am a very indecisive person and keep changing my dates and mind. I really have researched the best times by low crowd, price etc. I am wondering what your take is on either the week of November 9th or if we should wait and do the week of December 7th? I wanted to go in the end of October but am not able to book until May 3rd which would leave us at less than 180 days. My main factor now is deciding WHEN to go so that I can get on with the FUN of the planning… 😉
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Sara, they are both great weeks. But before giving up on the end of October…most great dining for late October likely will still be available May 3, so what I’d do is book May 3, reserve dining, see what you’ll be missing–you’ll be so close to 180 that it likely won’t be much–and weigh the results…If you end up deciding you don’t like the totality of the dining you can book, then just cancel everything and start over with one of the later dates…
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THIS IS INCREDIBLE! Great work!
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Thanks!!!
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We are planning our first trip to Disney World for our 40th wedding anniversary. We can go in October. What week would you suggest? We want to be able to use the outdoor pools. What medium price resort would you stay at? How do you plan the itinerary?
Thank you,Andrea
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Hi Andrea, the second half of October is particularly good–see items #4 and #5 here: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/09/19/2013-weeks-to-visit-walt-disney-world-ranked-in-order/
My recommended medium price resort for couples is Port Orleans French Quarter. See this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/06/26/the-most-romantic-walt-disney-world-resorts/ and also this https://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/10/25/personal-favorites-the-moderate-resorts/
I publish itineraries about 6 months in advance (so October won’t be out for a couple of months), but they are for families with kids…you might want to take a look at this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/planning-your-first-family-trip/how-long-to-stay/other-trip-lengths/designing-your-own-walt-disney-world-itinerary/designing-your-own-itinerary-continued/
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Hi Dave, This will be our first trip to Disney World Orlando, 3adults, 1 junoir (17 y/o) and 1 child 8 y/o). We have an open schedule but would like to go when the crowds are low, rain is low and heat are mid to low 70’s to low 80’s are good. We are from San Diego so tornados and hurricains are out. Which hotels do you recommend, we were told the Dolphin and Swan were great and are the dining packages a good value. We will stay for 6-7 days. Any suggestions are appreciated. Many thanks.
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Hey Brandon!
If you are thinking 2013, then the “week picker” is perfect for you–see https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/08/27/the-2013-walt-disney-world-week-picker/ I think particularly suited for someone spoiled from San Diego weather 🙂 –which as far as I am concerned is perfect as soon as the fog/haze burns off!–in 2013 would be late April…
I’m not so keen on Swan and Dolphin. For example, they are not Disney owned, so aren’t even in the dining package. For my recommendations in order by price class see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/04/26/walt-disney-world-resort-hotel-reviews/
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going to disney world in late october wandering whats best to pack for the temperture thank you
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Hi Joyce, see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/03/19/october-2012-at-walt-disney-world/
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Hi Dave,
Thank you for your site! IT has been very helpful! I am planning my first trip (as an adult) with my almost 2 and 5 yr. old. I will be at Disney late Dec. 29th (just going to bed, no parks) and leae the 4th of Jan. (we will be able to hit the parks until about 1pm that day). So I know that is a crazy time to go, but I teach so all the times I can go are crazy! Anyway, was wondering what you would suggest as far as which parks which days to avoid crowds (no park hopper). I was planning AK on new years eve since my kids can’t hang til midnight and the crowds will probably be to much for them everywhere else. Any suggestions for the other days? My son should be 44 inches by then (he is 43 1/2 now!) and we are not planning on visiting Epcot (or if we do it would be that last short day). I need help strategizing! Trying to get to MK on least crowded days since my kids will probably love that park the most….
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Hi Joan, glad the site has helped.
That week, there’s no way to avoid the crowds.
If you are staying at a WDW hotel, and have a park hopper, then got to park with morning extra magic hours (arrive at least 30 mins before the EMH begins) and then hop away later in the day.
If you aren’t staying at a WDW resort, and/or don’t have a hopper, then avoid parks with am EMH…
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