Category — Disney World Crowds

FALL FREE DINING MEANS SLIGHTLY LONGER LINES–BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MATTER

Every year shortly after the traditional fall free dining offer comes out, I start getting questions like Katie’s about whether free dining will make the parks more crowded than my forecasts.

The short answer is “no.” Free Dining this period has been happening forever, and is thus already built into the crowd forecasts.

The longer answer is a little more complicated, but still mostly no:

• Yes, free dining increases crowds more than they otherwise would have been (though, as noted, this is already reflected in the crowd calendars). But not much. If Disney sells 30% more of its hotel capacity because of free dining, that’s on the order of 30,000 more people in the hotels per night.  But divide this across four theme parks, the water parks, Downtown Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, and off days, and it’s a drop in the bucket!  And, to boldly repeat myself, this is already reflected in the crowd calendar.
• Because the free dining periods is shorter this year, it may have slightly more of a crowding effect in September 2013, as people who can do so–most can’t–move trips from the later August periods traditionally offered into September.  The effect of this is naturally capped by both the limited number of WDW hotel rooms, and resistance to taking kids out of school their first month back. Moreover, savvy travelers avoid going to Florida during the peak of the hurricane season–which (along with September being a tough time to take kids out of school) is exactly why Disney offers this deal!
• September crowds have been going up bit by bit for years now, principally because of growth in South American visitors on their “spring break” (recall that the seasons in South America are upside down). This actually has more of an impact than free dining, but it’s still small.
• Finally, because of the kick-off of Mickey’s Not-So-Halloween Party September 10, 2013 which days you go to the Magic Kingdom will really effect the level of crowds there.  See this.

Now when people like me talk about “crowds” we really mean “wait times.”

You may well see larger crowds in the streetscapes of the parks (you have larger street crowds during low-wait times, as not as many guest are in the lines!), and because of free dining, all the more fun restaurants will be booked solid.

But the wait times for rides will still be low compared to other times of the year. 

Now if you roll in at 11.30a, wait times will be high–as they always are by late morning.  Common sense and a good itinerary are still required. But wait times will still be much better than the equivalent times during the more crowded times of the year!

PEAK 2012 CROWDS WILL BEGIN DECEMBER 22, UNLESS THE WORLD COMES TO AN END

In later December–beginning around December 20, but really rolling in on December 22–the 2012 holiday crowds will begin to slam Walt Disney World.

Unless of course the world comes to an end on December 21.

Multi-hour waits will be common on the best-loved rides (waits crossed 3 hours at times last year), senior managers will be bussing tables, and park closures are possible.

Yes, there will also be a wonderful Christmas program and fun stuff on New Years Eve, but all in, because of the crowds and waits, this is a lousy time for a Disney World vacation.

But for the hundreds of thousands of you who will be there then, here’s some thoughts on how to make the best of it!

DEALING WITH THE HOLIDAY CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD [Read more →]

2014 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Yesterday I published the first draft of my 2014 Disney World Crowd Calendar.

As usual, I’ll revise it as needed in the summer of 2013 when a full set of 2013-2014 school year calendars are out–but, barring any typos or knuckle-headitude, I expect this calendar to hold up pretty well, because the specifics of 2014 aren’t very ambiguous.

• 2014 has an early Presidents Day and a very late Easter, which means more good March and April weeks than a typical year.
• It has a late Thanksgiving, giving one more good November week.
• Christmas and New Years are both mid-week (Thursday) meaning the weeks that include them will be wildly crowded.

Find these forecast 2014 Disney World crowds here.

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the next best dates, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2012 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2012 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2013 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2013 Week Picker, click here
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2012 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2013 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2014 Crowds Calendar, click here.
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2012 price seasons, see this
  • For 2013 price seasons, click here
  • For projected 2014 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

2014 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

In the image you’ll find my projections for Walt Disney World 2014 weekly crowds.

By “crowds” I really mean wait times–not the number of people in the park, but not in line for a ride!

Dates in it are the beginning of the week, and the wait time forecast covers the following 9 days.

(For 2015 crowds, click here, and for 2016 crowds, here.)

Crowd levels are ranked by week from 1-11 in the following way:

1: Lowest of the year

2: Lower

3: Low

4: Low-plus

5: Moderate-minus

6: Moderate

7: Moderate-plus

8: High-minus

9: High

10: Higher

11: Highest

HOW TO INTERPRET THE 2014 DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR

Dates are the beginning of the week.

The “low crowd” weeks–those colored green, and rated 1-4–represent the only crowd levels a family visiting for the first time, and unsure if it will ever return, should consider.

However, lower crowds, especially lowest crowds, do not always mean a better week. The lowest weeks are low for a reason–typically because they are in the hurricane or the ride closure seasons.

The “moderate crowd” weeks–those in black and rated 5-7–have crowd levels I would not recommend to first time visitors. However, I’d go during such weeks myself with no hesitation, and think these levels are OK for returning visitors who don’t need to see everything and already know how to work Walt Disney World.

The “high crowd” weeks–those in red, rated 8-11–should be avoided by everyone. They aren’t, which is why they are so high.

MY DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR GOES UP TO “11”

The influence of the Unofficial Guide  and TouringPlans.com has led almost all Disney World crowd calendars to top out at 10.

However, I’ve always thought that the really nastiest weeks of the year deserved an 11 for emphasis.

So, in homage to Spinal Tap, I assigned 11 to “highest.”

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2014 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2014 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For 2016 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2014 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2015 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2016 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2014 price seasons, see this
  • For 2015 price seasons, see this
  • For projected 2016 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

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DISNEY WORLD CROWDS AND FREE DINING

Pretty much every time Disney World announces a free dining deal (like this one), I get a  bunch of comments like this:

“Dave–with free dining now announced for my week, should I move my dates to avoid the crowds it draws?”–Perplexed

My short answer is always something like “No, don’t change.  It’s mathematically impossible for free dining to much change park crowds.”

For the longer answer–and why the short answer is true–keep reading!

FREE DINING CAN PACK THE DISNEY WORLD HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS, BUT NOT THE PARKS

Here’s the basics:

• The vast majority of people in the parks are NOT staying in a Walt Disney World hotel
• Free dining only affects the number of people staying in Disney World hotels
• Some people who take advantage of free dining arrival dates would have been in Walt Disney World hotels then anyway, so don’t incrementally add to park crowds
• Some people are simply pulled into Disney World hotels from off-site hotels by free dining, so have no incremental impact on park crowds
• Some people would not have gone during one of the eligible arrival dates at all except for free dining

Only this last group has an incremental impact on park crowds, and it is so small that it can’t affect park crowding much.

Here’s why:  including all the Art of Animation rooms, there’s about 27,200 Walt Disney World hotel rooms (excluding the Campsites at Fort Wilderness, which are never eligible for free dining).

The last bucket–people who would not have come but for free dining–is going to book at most 20% of these rooms, or about 5500 rooms.

At 3 people per room, that’s about 16,000 incremental people.

Divided across 4 theme parks, two water parks, off-days, Universal and SeaWorld, etc., the incremental effect on any given park is de minimis.

For example, on a slow day (and basically free dining is only offered during the slow periods–that’s why they offer it…), the Magic Kingdom will have 20,000-25,000 people in it; adding another 5,000 or even 10,000 people will have only a trivial impact on park crowding, as this will still put the crowd level well below the point where the park lines start going crazy.

Free dining does make the park crowds higher than they would be on the same exact dates without free dining, but not enough to change the nature of the parks or their lines.

It does crowd the hotels–that’s the point–and crowd the restaurants–that’s the tool.

But in general, you should view the presence of free dining during your week as an indicator that it’s a pretty low crowd week to attend!

2013 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The analysis of 2013 school breaks is done, and based on that, I’ve updated my 2013 Disney World crowd calendar.  It should–barring typos or cataclysms–now be stable through 2013. [Read more →]