DISNEY WORLD CROWDS OVERVIEW
The thumbnail (click on it to open it; when open, click the open chart once or twice to enlarge) presents forecasts for crowds at Walt Disney World over the next year and a half.
The thumbnail shows colored bars by Saturday arrival date for the next 18 months. The higher the bar, the more crowded the parks will be that week.
There are two colors to the bars, green and red. Green bars are based on analysis of current Disney data (which is usually available for the next 5 to 6 months). Red bars are projections based on similar months from recent years, revised to reflect actual holiday dates in 2009 and 2010.
But regardless of color, the higher the bar, the more crowded the parks will be!
MORE DETAIL
The data you see in the thumbnail was the basis of the crowd forecasting component of this site’s recommended weeks to visit Walt Disney World. You can see more on weeks to visit
Why crowds matter can be found on this page: When to Go.
The basics of crowd forecasting at Walt Disney World are straightforward.
Periods when most families find it most convenient to go are very crowded, and periods when they don’t aren’t!
This means that the most crowded periods are June, July, and the first half of August; Thanksgiving week; Christmas and New Years weeks, and the weeks before and after Easter. Crowd levels during the rest of the year are more subtle. Holidays have an impact–but not all of them (Labor Day does not, for example.)
ESTIMATING MORE SPECIFICALLY FUTURE CROWD LEVELS
To get at these subtle differences, you can estimate future crowds at Walt Disney World simply by looking at how much capacity Disney offers in a given week (that is, how many hours it keeps the theme parks open) compared to how much it offers in low and high seasons and the weeks around it. Disney offers more capacity when it expects higher crowds, and less when it expects lower ones.
The data you need is in the chart, which is based on “excess” hours offered, in total, at Disney’s Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom parks* for 16 months in 2008-09, and on forecasts out to 2010.
“Excess hours” are defined as how many more hours of capacity are offered in a week compared to the lowest number of hours offered in a week during the analyzed period. To keep the chart simple, this excess is converted into a number between 0 and 1 by dividing the given week’s excess by the largest excess during the analyzed period.
All you really need to know though is that the higher the bar, the bigger the expected crowds!
MORE CROWD DATA
See this for additional material on capacity offered.
*I exclude Epcot in this analysis because its hours are (almost) always the same, and exclude the Magic Kingdom because demand outstrips supply in the peak seasons, and in the off-peak seasons, special paid events (MVMCP, Pirates and Princesses, Mickey’s Not so Scary Halloween Party) obscure the true capacity offered.
LINKS FOR WHEN TO GO
- For when to go, see this
- For next best dates, see this
- For 2009 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
- For weeks to visit in future years, see this
- For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
- For 2009 price seasons, see this
- For projected price seasons in future years, see this
- For weather at Walt Disney World, see this
