When Will the New Walt Disney World Deals and Discounts Be Out?
PREDICTING FUTURE DISNEY WORLD PROMOTIONS, DEALS, AND DISCOUNTS
The Disney World deals, promotions, and discounts I know about are linked to via this Summary of Current Walt Disney World Deals and Discounts.
However, all the time I get search traffic, questions, and comments about the dates of future deals and discounts, like this one from Brandon.
These questions are hard to answer, as it’s to Disney’s advantage not to be too predictable on these promotions.
It doesn’t make much business sense for Disney World to incent people who are perfectly willing to pay standard resort hotel prices to hold off on their reservations so that they can get a predictable further discount later.
So just because a discount was available at such and such a time last year doesn’t mean it’ll be available at that time this year, or next year.
This is particularly true if the economy keeps improving, which will lead Disney to continue to cut back on the scope of its discount programs–which it has promised to Wall Street that it will do.
However, that doesn’t mean that there’s no pattern, nor that observations can’t be made.
ANALYZING PATTERNS IN DISNEY WORLD DISCOUNTS AND PROMOTIONS
I analyzed the 50+ major discount programs Walt Disney World made available to the general public covering stays from 2008 til well into 2011 to see if there were some patterns that might be helpful.
The analysis focused in particular on how many days elapsed between the discount announcement date and the beginning and the ending dates during which the discount could be used.
I then graphed the cumulative distribution of the results.
See the chart to the right.
(Click to enlarge it; when it’s open, click again to enlarge it more.)
The chart has two lines, each the result of independent analysis of the Disney deals.
(That is, the points at the 50th percentile on the red and the blue lines do not represent the beginning and end of the same Disney World promotion.)
The blue line covers the period from the date of the announcement to the first date the discount can be applied.
It helps illuminate whether, if a discount is announced, it will cover your dates.
Note that the blue line hits 20% at 30 days, and 70% at 60 days.
What this means is that 70% of Disney World’s major discount programs open to the general public over the last four years had their first effective date 2 months away or closer, and that half of them (70%-20%) had their first effective date between 30 and 60 days after announcement.
So if you are within 30-60 days of your trip, and no discounts have been announced that apply to it, based on this the odds are 70% that a new discount program, if announced, will begin during your period. If you are a month away, if a new discount program is announced, the odds are only 20% that it will cover your dates.
In other words, the nearer your dates, the less the chance that any announced discount will cover them.
WHEN MIGHT FUTURE DISNEY WORLD DISCOUNTS BE ANNOUNCED?
The red line covers the number of days between announcements and the last effective date of a discount program.
This curve is smoother. Half of discount programs have their ending date 120 days or sooner after their announcement, and about 90% of programs have their ending date 6 months (180 days) or sooner after the announcement.
This curve helps illuminate when future discounts might be announced.
For example, you may be wondering when Disney will be announcing a discount for January 2012.
Well, if it does so, based on past behavior the odds are about 90% that, if announced, a January 2012 Disney World discount will be announced no earlier than sometime July 2011–that is, six months before.
And the odds are about 50% that, if announced, it will be announced no earlier than sometime September 2011.
So don’t be looking for them now…
DISNEY WORLD CAN DO ANYTHING IT WANTS WITH DISCOUNT TIMING…
These patterns are observations about past tendencies…not a playbook that Disney must follow!
Disney World can, and does, do anything it wants. It is quite capable of surprises–like the free dining deal announced last year that covered some dates more than 400 days after the announcement!
So take this analysis for what it’s worth…as an illumination based on past behavior, not a display of psychic powers!
OTHER CAVEATS AND MORE WEASELING
This analysis covers only 2008 through 2011–the time during which this site has been up, and I’ve been paying detailed attention. This period is the same as the downturn, which started showing up in early 2008, and so the analysis may fast become irrelevant if the economy takes off.
There are certain periods where you just won’t see discounts, when demand for Disney resort hotels, or willingness to pay, is predictably high enough that it makes no business sense for Disney to discount–promotions that are offered will exclude them (these excluded periods are known as “black-out dates”) or end before or start after them.
Almost never discounted periods are the Xmas-New Year’s periods, President’s Day week, Easter week, and Thanksgiving week. Commonly blacked out as well are July, Jersey Week, and Pop Warner Week.
The analysis includes only discounts available to the general public–not passholder discounts, Florida resident deals, military discounts, pin codes for Disney Visa card holders, etc. For thoughts on a 2012 Military Salute, see this page on MilitaryDisneyTips.com. For more on most of these other discount types, see The Tightwad’s Guide to Resort Deals and Discounts.
Current major Disney World promotions for the general public and the military that I know about can be found on Summary of Current Walt Disney World Deals and Discounts. However, don’t ever give up on finding a discount until after you’ve also checked MouseSavers.com and with your travel agent.
73 comments
We are planning on going to DW the first week in December. We were hoping to be able to snag the free dining plan along with this trip. Our travel dates are somewhat flexible. Do you think we are better off going the week before or week after to maximize the chance of getting the free dining plan?
Thanks,
Megan
Hi Megan, yes, I do. in recent years discounts offered in this period have exluded the first full week of December. The weeks before and after are both great…
Is it true if we arrived for example on the last day of the free dining deal (say Dec 2) it would be extended for us throughout the entire trip?
Megan, I’ve heard this as well, but can’t confirm. I will try to confirm and will post another comment with what I learn!
Hi Megan! Dave wanted me to chime in with some guidance. He is correct, for discounts…the 2nd and 3rd weeks (before Christmas) in December are much better in regards to getting a discount. The Pop Warner Super Bowl runs December 4-11. Disney rarely offers a discount during this popular week. You have a much better chance of getting a discount (including free dining) by booking your trip the 2nd or 3rd week of this month.
In regards to the discount, it varies per discount. I know that is kinda a vague answer, but some discounts we are able to book the 1st night of a guest’s vacation during the last day of a Disney discount. Each discount is different how it is loaded into the system and some discounts will allow us to book it and some discounts will not.
Please let me know if you have any other questions.
Allison Jones
Destinations in Florida Travel
Thanks Allison!
Thank you both for the very helpful information, and very timely responses! What a great resource this website has been for us!
Thanks Megan and have a great trip!! …and feel free to tell your 1000 closest friends about the site!… Dave
Great site…wish I would have discovered many years ago!
Question is this…we are going to WDW in mid-October 2011 and do not hit free dining that is offered before or after our trip (total bummer). In past years (during this same time frame) we have always gotten something (bounce back offer, free dining). We are super nervous that nothing will come our way. Why no offers during this time and do you think something will come our way (like the Annual Passholders 40% off).
Thanks for your time!
Leah
Leah, recently there’s never been a free dining deal without a room rate deal showing up soon after, with many fewer blackout dates. Keep your fingers crossed….
Thanks Dave! Again, great site,
Leah
Thanks Leah…ps rumors are going around that a room rate discount of up to 35% will be coming out soon, with the only blackout being Thanksgiving week. I’m gonna post on this today…
Thanks Dave. We have been seeing offers in the UK, Annual Pass holders, pin codes for those who go to conferences…so many…so we are eagerly awaiting.
We will keep checking your site for sure.
Leah
Check out also Mouseplanet.com, especially the stuff at the top of the right sidebar–rumors (and facts!) about deals often show up there first!
Hey Leah,
Looks like I am going to same time in October and was so upset about not getting Dining. I have made myself sick every day waiting for a room discount. Dave, I read your site and I am praying that something will come out. I just hope I don’t lose sleep anymore and this happens fast! I was really banking on the dining…oh well! I hope this rumor becomes true. Thanks everyone.
Ginette…I am glad I am not the only one waiting. I am up early every morning checking websites so that I can call and get a deal. I am feeling like Cinderella watching all others go to the ball with reduced rates and free dining
So I am hoping that…someday our price will come!
Thanks to Dave for sure!
you go girls!
Dave,
Is there a certain day of the week that special offers come out? Or is it random?
Do you think with the big D23 weekend they may announce it then?
Leah
Leah–I haven’t studied that question so this is just off the cuff–I’ve heard that Wednesdays are a common day, and myself have noticed a lot of Sundays.
I don’t think D23 is a good venue for an announcement of a discount program–they are more working the other side of pumping the reasons to visit…
My guess is that if it comes out it will come out after D23 and maybe a week or even longer after as they get more data on how well the Dining deal is filling the hotels and what’s going on with other advance booking…a new deal would be for their next fiscal quarter, not their current one (which ends towards the end of Sept) so there’s no real rush…but this is just a guess!!
Remember a watched pot never you-know-whats!!
Thanks! Yea, you are right about that watched pot. But I have to save money somehere so that I can do some damage at the Food & Wine Festival (love Poland)). You’ve been great, I appreciate all your help.
Leah
Dave,
I’m sorry I cannot stop on this subject. If Disney Visa were to release something for October dates, do you think it will be a mailing or advertise online? And if so, would this happen before September that you are estimating for the general public? I am like Leah just getting so nervous that my dates are getting closer and still no discounts! I know the saying says don’t expect things but I sure was expecting dining and now I would like something! Thanks for all your help with everything…you are full of information!
Ginette, I’m sorry but I don’t know!
Thank you anyways. Will try to stop with the same question over and over again!!
We are planning on going to Disney world april 27, 2012 to may 6 th. I’m trying to see if there is a trend to the discounts the offer during this time frame. Would you know what they usually do?
Hi Heather! No guarantees, but yours is a period that has been usually offered discounts in recent years…
Hello Dave,
Your website is fantastic. I have been taking my family to Disney for the last few years, alwasy in the first week of January. There has always been a promotion run in this period. This year we are booked for January 2 to 9, 2012 (the first few days after New Years). Thus far I have not seen a promotion. Do you have any sense of whether something may be offered for this week. I note that there is an ongoing promotion which begins for trips on January 8, 2012. Do you think we booked too close to New Years?
Hi Jerry and thanks!
I think it’s likely that there’s no discount (and won’t be a discount, in my guess) both because a lot of schools have Jan 2 off, and because (more importantly) the marathon is the weekend of the 7th.
As Disney is trying to tighten up its discounts, it’s avoiding dates where it thinks it can sell a lot of room nights anyway…see this for more: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/07/05/disney-world-crowds-in-2012-christmasnew-years-2011-2012/
What are the best dates in December for deals and minimal lines. I would like to take my wife and two kids to WDW. we will be coming from Nebraska so I am also investigating best places to stay, meals, airline tickets etc… Thanks for any advice.
Hi Derek!
The best December dates for low crowds begin the Sunday after Thanksgiving and run up until about 12/21 or 12/22.
For the only current deal with arrival dates during this period, see this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/08/03/new-free-disney-world-dining-deal-through-march-2012/
For the other basics–where to stay, dining, etc–see the home page: http://yourfirstvisit.net
Hope this helps and have a great trip! Dave
Hi Dave – Like all your other readers…WOW – I am SO impressed with your fact based and none sales approach to Disney – so awesome and refreshing.
We try to go to Disney RIGHT after Labor day – most kids are in school and crowds are perfect. I know there is a risk for hurricane…but all the other factors are too good to pass up.
Question is – I am having a hard time trying to figure out your graph on discounts. What are the chances and when of seeing a discount for the beginning of September?
Also, do you know, if they offer free dining with a value resort that is just the counter service, can you upgrade to the regular dining for the difference in price? Hmmmm, questions questions! Thanks so much for your help!
Hi Danielle! Thanks for the kind words….Getting free dining in September is as close to a sure thing as there is in the uncertain world of Disney discounts. It opens up anytime from March to June. And yes, you can upgrade the free counter dining to reguaklr free dining by paying the cash difference!
Hi Dave…I read somewhere on here about “What I should do now”…something about booking my resort stay but NOT the dining until it gets closer in case it comes out as free dining. I have bunny trailed so much I can’t remember where I saw that, can you explain that. I don’t want to get into a situation I can’t get out of. Do you know what I am talking about? Thanks so much again! Danielle
Hi Danielle, you can generally re-book a reservation to change it to a deal if a dela comes out. It’s easiest to do if you book through a travel agent (see the from on the lower right)–and tell them that such is your hope, as they will steer you to hotels and dates that are more likely to be available in the deals.
Hi Dave….trying to plan our first ever trip to Disney with my husband, 2 children and my parents for next Spring. My travel options are April 21-28 or May 5-12. Any thoughts on whether there will be a discount during these times or if one date has a better chance of having a discount or not. Thanks a bunch!
Hi Amy, there’s really no telling on discounts. Either could be discounted. I like your April dates slightly better.
What must I expect to pay for a trip by car to DW for parents and 11 and 14 yr old children (4) , minimal sleeping accommodations, Dec. 24–29, 2011? At this late date, what is the best way to go about making arrangements? Thank you for any help available.
Hi Annette–that is the most crowded and expensive time of the year–I can’t recommend it.
Tix and the least expensive hotel (a “value” resort) will cost you on the order of $2000. You’ll need to add food to that and souveniers–more than $500 more… for these hotels see this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/08/04/the-value-resorts-at-walt-disney-world/
The easiest way to do this is to work with a travel agent–see the box on the lower right of this site…
Any rumor on if there will be a discount offered for a mid June 2012. We are looking to book a vacation that is right outside of their current special offer period. I think we will hold out for a month or so to see if anything comes up.
Brian I haven’t heard of anything but such rumors don’t usually emerge until a week or so before they come out…
Hi! I just discovered your site and love what I’ve seen so far. I have a couple of questions. We went to WDW for our honeymoon in May, 2002. We arrived on May 20th and the crowds were SO LOW until the weekend. We are planning to go back for our 10th anniversary and will be there from May 21-May 27. After looking at your site it looks like the crowds are actually going to be pretty about a 5-7, is that correct? Also, there is a current room promo going on right now. Do you think there will be another promo for the time we are going? We were hoping for a food plan or gift card (We went in November, 2010 and got a $300 gift card which was NICE!). Also, I’ve heard rumors that Disney is phasing out the discount promos and that soon there will be none at all–especially ones for free dining. Have you heard anything about this? Thanks so much for your help!! Can’t wait to investigate your site more!
Hi Melissa, and thanks!!
Crowds should be similar to what they were in your last late May visit. DIsney is cutting back promotions as much as it can–but I doubt they will go away entirely…they will be less frequent, have less savings, and have more blackout dates…
Hi Dave,
What do you give for odds on a free dining plan (or other Nice Discount) for the week after Thanksgiving this year? It’s ranked #2 on your board, and so we are hoping that Disney wants to lure us in with it : )
Hi Barb! In the past few years Disney has offered some kind of deal for this week. No guarantee it will do so next year–but I’d say odds are better than 50-50…
We are planning a Feb. 2012 vacation. What is the best time during this month for discounts. There are 3 adults and 2 kids, 7 &2. We were thinking Feb. 21-28th. Is there free dining in Feb. Thanks.
Hi Ashley, the most expensive part of February 2012 is the 16th until the 25th, and the most crowded part is the 16th through the 26th. Prices are still high after the 25th, and are quite low before the 16th. See this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/05/26/walt-disney-world-2012-price-seasons/
There had been discounts for the earlier part of February, including free dining, but all their “book-by” dates have passed.
There’s still one deal for the later part of February, but it needs to be booked by January 22–see this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/01/10/book-soon-to-get-discounted-disney-world-rooms-in-february-and-march-2012/
Hi,
We are annual passholders and we are planning a big trip for 5/12/12 to 5/19/12, to Walt Disney World. Does anyone know when the annual passholder specials will be announced? Thanks for everything..
Hi Evelyn! My sense is that passholder discounts are out a only a couple of months ahead (but I haven’t done the math–just what I’ve noticed), so I’d expect May discounts out in Feb or March
Oops–Evelyn, passholder dscounts for into June are out…I will also email you on this…
Hi, we are planning our trip to Disney World from April 27th to May 6th. So far there is only the one discount out there for up to 30% off. Do you think they will be coming out with any other offers between now and the time we leave? Just that the we really did not save that much with this discount that is currently running.
Hi Heather, it’s hard to say but if I had to bet the answer would be no other discounts, unless the economy takes an unexpected turn. If other discounts come out, based on the past they might be free dining or free tickets for kids…
My family and I are going to WDW Aug 29-Sept 3 for my 21st birthday, have there been any patterns of discounts coming out around this time?
Hi Kylie, yes there is. The past few years Disney World has made free dining available then, plus some other deals–like room discounts. No guarantees, but I’d expect to see the same this year. See this for more: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2009/12/21/the-tightwads-guide-to-when-to-go-to-walt-disney-world/
Hi, Thanks for a fantastic site!! We are planning to go to WDW around August 19th for 3-4 nights. If we book now, what happens if they suddenly offer free dining, after we’ve already paid for it? Should we pay for the whole package now, or wait on the dining option until closer to the time? This is all a little overwhelming!!! Thanks so much, Cari.
Cari, thanks!
Definitely don’t pay for the whole package now–just the deposit–and ideally do a “room only” reservation. This gives you the most flexibility for later changing. Another option is to use a travel agent (see the form on the right) and tell them what your hopes are–that way they can set you up so that redoing the reservation is most possible…
We are planning our first trip to Disney this year….Jersey week….because we are from Jersey and don’t want my kiddos to miss too much school. I just stumbled on this site and it is great! We are really hoping for a free dining plan that week….will it be blacked out because it’s Jersey week?
Hi Larissa! Yes, if there is a free dining discount in late fall, Jersey Week will almost certainly be blacked out…
I am planing on going to Disney World from Jan. 22-30th. From what I’ve read on your site, it is one of the best times to go (low room cost, and low crowds). I was just wondering if Disney ever offered discounts on room rate or free dining around these dates? Since I’m a mom traveling alone with a 2 year old and a four year old, I would like to stay at the Polynesian for monorail access and any discount would greatly help my budget. Thanks!
P.S. Great site with amazing advice.
Hi Alexsandra, and thanks!
Other than scattered ride closures and cold weather, that’s a great time to go–low prices and low crowds.
There’s no predicting whether you’ll get discounts then…by policy Disney is cutting back on deals as the recession slowly fades–but those were eligible dates for a 2012 deal–see this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/08/03/new-free-disney-world-dining-deal-through-march-2012/
Hi, in the past years, we have received a Free Disney Dining Deal Promotion in the mail in the month of March for arrivals from mid April to mid August. What are the chances we are still on that mailing list and any word on this promotion coming out this year?
Hi Mike! No idea about the mailing list, sorry.
Do you have to be on some kind of mailing list to get these promotions mailed to you?
Hi Christie–other than having the Disney visa card, I haven’t heard anyone who has cracked the code on how to get the discounts sent to them…
Thanks I will apply for a Disney Visa Card then.
Hi Dave-
Any idea about discounts the week directly after Thanksgiving (11/25-12/2)?
Angela, there’s no guarantee, but that’s a very common period for discounts…
Thinking of changing vacation to either 11/27-12/3 or 11/30-12/6 timeframe due to fantasyland openings. Do you think with all of the recent announcements there would be any special offers at that time? If so, are we talking free dining or room discounts? Thanks!
Hi Krystal!
First, did you see this? http://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/04/29/expect-new-fantasyland-at-walt-disney-world-to-open-by-december-8/
And also this? http://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/11/29/preview-ariels-undersea-adventure-at-the-magic-kingdom/
I don’t expect much impact on crowds, and thus expect Disney will probably discount the week beginning 11/25, but not the week beginning 12/2, then again the week beginning 12/9. These discounts are most likely to be room rates, tho free dining is possible…
I can’t seem to wrap my head around your chart as to when deals will most likely be announced. So when would you guess that any Late November special offers might be released? Later this month or next month or is that wishful thinking?
Hi Krystal..I have to admit that this chart is not my best work
For what it’s worth, discounts for that time period last year were announced in early August
Hi Dave! Stumbled on your site… very impressive!!
2 questions: Thinking about doing a Disney cruise and WDW resort combination trip 11/4-11/13. Do you have any suggestions on getting a deal, perhaps by booking together? We’re thinking about staying on the resort 11/9-13, any ideas about discounts then?
Hi Florence and thanks!!
I don’t track the cruise line so am probably not the best person to answer…but for WDW itself, it’s unlikely that you’ll get a discount for the earlier part of your dates as they fall during Jersey Week, which is rarely discounted…see this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/05/02/jersey-week-at-walt-disney-world/
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