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OVERVIEW: FEBRUARY 2012 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews February 2012 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, operating hours, adds a few other notes, and ends with week by week summaries.

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DISNEY WORLD SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds are governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in mid-August

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the week that includes the 4th of July the busiest week.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June starts well, but builds to high crowd levels later in the month.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go in early June if they can, or, if their schools are not out then, as late in August as their schedules permit.

2012 PUBLIC SCHOOL SUMMER BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

The beginnings of summer breaks vary more than most people think.

The chart to the right illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 125 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

(Click it to enlarge it; when it opens, click it again to enlarge it more.)

In 2012, only about 10% of kids are out before June; 30% are out as of June 2, 2012, 60% as of June 9; the proportion builds slowly over the rest of the month, with essentially all kids off by June 28, 2012.

Few families plan their vacation for their first day out of school, so there’s a lag in the effect of these dates on summer crowds that I can’t precisely quantify.

But the upshot is that early June is not bad.

I rate crowds the week beginning June 2 as 5/moderate-minus, June 9 as 7/moderate-plus, and June 16 begins a string of 9 straight summer weeks rated 9/high or 10/higher.

Because of the variation noted above in when people do go vs. can go, the weeks of June 9 and 16 may be a little better than I’m rating them, but my data sets won’t let me draw that conclusion.

THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON AND DISNEY WORLD SUMMER CROWDS

The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November.

It peaks, however, from mid-August to early October.

(Click the chart; see also Weather and When to Go to Walt Disney World.)

As a result, August crowds at Walt Disney World are affected not only by the end dates of summer breaks, but also by savvy travelers avoiding this potential weather.

Hurricanes rarely impact a Disney World vacation…but savvy travelers with choices in when they can go commonly avoid this period. (Disney knows this of course, and both drops prices and commonly offers free dining during this period to change the value and risk equation.)

As a result, I rank crowds for the first two weeks of August (arrival dates 8/4 and 8/11/2012) 9/high.  The week beginning 8/18 gets a crowd rating of 6/moderate. The week beginning 8/25 gets a crowd rating of 3/low.

WHAT’S AN “E” TICKET AT WALT DISNEY WORLD?

I’ve had fun recently writing about “E” Ticket rides at the Magic Kingdom–e.g. here, here, and here.

The phrase “E” Ticket lives today as a metaphor, standing for that which gives rise to a superlative experience.

But it used to be a real thing–the ticket that allowed you on to the newest/best/most popular rides at Disneyland and the Magic Kingdom.

I’ve been noodling a bit lately about the “E” Ticket’s journey from object to metaphor, the negative implications of its physical absence, and the potential of Disney’s NextGen project to bring its absent presence back to concrete reality–though in a different form.

Some other influences on this thinking have been rumors of World of Color coming to Downtown Disney, some light recreational reading I’ve been doing on saving American capitalism from the current model for running publicly-traded companies, and some consulting work I’m preparing to do on recasting physician compensation models so that MDs are paid for the value they create, rather than activity.

In what follows, I’ll pull all this together–and I promise that, as unlikely as it may seem now,  it’ll be at least a “C” Ticket experience!

“E” TICKET RIDES YESTERDAY AND TODAY

The original price model for Disneyland combined a park admission price with individual ride prices.  One paid to enter the park, and paid more for the tickets used to actually gain access to the attractions.

Each ride was classed, and each class had a ticket and associated price.  Disneyland began with class “A,” “B,” and “C” tickets, added more expensive “D” tickets at its first major expansion, and even more expensive “E” tickets at its second.  The original “E” ticket rides included the Matterhorn and the Monorail.

Tickets were sold both individually (“Dad, I want to ride it again–will you get us some more “E” Tickets?”) and in books that contained varying numbers of the different types– a few “A”s, a few “B”s, etc.

This led to operational complexity–ticket printing, selling and collection–but no one saw it as such, as no one understood there was an alternative.

But in this sea of paper, complexity and labor, there were some advantages.

ADVANTAGES OF THE OLD “E” TICKET SYSTEM

One advantage for first time visitors was that the ticket levels (and associated increasing ticket prices) gave some sense of the relative quality of the attractions. This helped with navigating the park.

Simply, an “E” Ticket was likely to be more fun than a “C” ticket, a “D” Ticket more fun than a “B” ticket, etc.

Many families took the approach of riding all the “E” and “D” attractions, buying extra tickets in addition to their coupon books to do so, but riding only as many “A,” “B” and “C” rides as came in their coupon book.

Disney’s current FASTPASS system plays a bit of this role in marking some exceptional rides today, but is widely misunderstood by first time visitors. Moreover, not all the current “D” and “E” rides are on FASTPASS (at least today–NextGen will likely change that).

Of course, “E” tickets themselves were never perfect guides to distinctive quality–note that the Tiki Room is on the mid-70s “E” Ticket example above, and the rides listed on the first “E” Ticket included not only the Matterhorn and Monorail, but also the Santa Fe & Disneyland Railroad…

The second advantage of the old system was forcing a variety of attraction types.  The model of “A” through “E” tickets requires, of course “A” and “B” and “C” attractions.  You can still see such at the Magic Kingdom in the vehicles on Main Street, and rides like Astro Orbiter.

While these “A”-“C” rides don’t attract many riders, they add a certain variety and vitality to the parks. The Animal Kingdom is the example of the opposite…pretty much everything there is a “D” or “E” ticket.  Part of the point of Joe Rohde’s design for Dinoland U.S.A. was to bring back some of the vitality of a landscape with “A,” “B” and “C” rides.

The third advantage of the old system was providing another way to ration capacity in addition to willingness to wait in lines.  Tickets mean that higher demand than capacity at a ride can be solved through increased prices rather than just longer lines–e.g. shifting a ride from a “D” Ticket to an “E” Ticket.  Too little demand for a ride can be addressed by lowering prices–shifting a ride from a “C” to a “B” Ticket.  Such a ticket system intrinsically does a better job of reducing waits at high-demand rides or filling rides with excess capacity like Carousel of Progress than wait times alone.

But probably the most important advantage of the old system was its impact on how capital and operating budgets were viewed.

The Disney park business model used to be pretty simple.

Adding a new wonderful ride drew on capital and added operating costs to the parks. But doing so also added revenue, as more “E” Tickets would be sold.

The added sales would not be  the same as the total rides of the new ride, since there would be some cannibalization of the older “E” Ticket rides. That is, some people would buy no more “E” tickets than they would have without the new ride, and instead just ignore some of the other “E” ticket rides while riding the new one.  But other guests would ride both the other “E” tickets and the new one as well, and the upshot was an increase “E” Ticket sales, and thus in revenue that could be pretty directly attributed to the new ride.

Nowadays the business model is more complicated.

Because a single entry price allows access to all of a park’s rides, a new ride in the short term can simply have the appearance of raising operating costs. Invest a ton, and as a result hurt profitability.  The response has been to fix profitability when new rides open by eliminating other rides and their associated operating costs.

For example, as far as I can tell, the Fantasyland expansion did not need to be put in the footprint of Mickey’s Toontown Fair.

There’s land to the west that could have been used instead.

But putting the expansion on a closed Toontown reduces operating costs both during construction and after the Fantasyland expansion opens, compared to leaving Toontown untouched and open.

Jim Hill–who has covered such economics for a long time–has a fascinating recent story that illuminates the economics of these decisions, but in this example with a positive outcome for guests.

When the American Idol Experience opened at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, productions of Fantasmic were cut back, especially during the slower seasons, to clean up the park’s resulting increased expenses.

This resulted in not only massive guest complaints–Fantasmic is huge favorite–but also crushing crowds at the Studios on Fantasmic days from people without park hoppers.

Interestingly, though, the Fantasmic show spot is not used for any other activities, and has its own snack stand and crew of trinket sellers.

No Fantasmic, no snacks or trinkets sold…and as Jim notes, these generate enough funds to roughly cover the incremental cash costs of a Fantasmic show.

Partly because of recognition of this, more Fantasmic shows have been added to the calendar.

This is the kind of direct visibility between costs and revenues that under a “one price admission to all rides model” is now rare at Walt Disney World.

In the longer term, new “E” Ticket rides revitalize the brand, and pay off from first time and repeat business.  Everybody knows this. That’s why this stuff gets built. Everybody also knows what the ridership is of a new ride.

But unlike in the days of priced ride tickets, there’s no easy way to tie that ridership to the revenue accounting, and hence to direct profitability.  All that’s inescapably visible are the added operating costs of the ride…and because these are obvious, they tend to be what gets managed. While as always the map is not the terrain, over any short term period the math is what tends to get managed, not the thing itself.

BETTER MANAGEMENT AND NEXTGEN TO THE RESCUE?

 This article continues here.

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SPLASH MOUNTAIN

I review rides only when they are new or after they have changed, on the theory that first time visitors ought to try them all and hence don’t need reviews.

(For those without the time or energy to try them all, there’s a
comprehensive guide to Disney World rides and attractions here and also a list of Disney World rides that might be skipped here.)

Splash Mountain has had a minor recent change–the addition of lap bars–just enough of a change to give me an excuse to review it…

[Read more →]

(This is the second page of this review.  For the first page, click here.)

LOEWS ROYAL PACIFIC RESORT: BEST PLACES TO STAY

The Royal Pacific is laid out like a big Y.

See the not-so-great map below (It’s a photo of a sign; I could not find printed maps to scan…)

The ends of the Y are three room towers, themselves Y-shaped.

The tower on the upper left–labeled 23, and known as Tower 2 or the Leeward Tower–is the least convenient to the pool and boat docks/walkways to the theme parks.

The other two towers–22 on the lower left, known as Tower 1 or the Windward Tower, and 24 at the right center, known as Tower 3 or the Royal Tower–encircle the pool and are closer to the boat dock and theme park walkway.

The boat dock to the parks is just visible as the green point labeled 19 at the bottom of the map.

The walkway to the parks follows the upper part of the same lagoon (barely visible on the map) the boat dock is located on, and heads leftwards past the Windward Tower (on the map) along the boat canal to Islands of Adventure.

Convenience to the pools, the boat dock and the theme park walkway makes the Windward Tower the best of the three options.

GETTING TO THE THEME PARKS–AND ESPECIALLY THE WIZARDING WORLD OF HARRY POTTER

You can take the boat or walk.

The boat is more fun and easier.

For most families, walking is faster unless the boat has no line and is ready to leave when you arrive.

Either way, once you are moving, getting to the entrance to Islands of Adventure takes about 5-10 minutes.

My trip, carefully but not thoughtfully designed to put me first in line for the wand choosing the wizard at Ollivanders, went as follows:

• Walk from my ground floor Leeward Tower room to the boat dock: 4 minutes
• No line for the boat at 7.28a; 4 minute wait for the boat to leave
• 6 minutes to the dock at Universal’s Citywalk, between NASCAR and the Hard Rock, with a very entertaining boat skipper
• Realize at 7.43a that I left my room key locked in my room, so won’t be able to get in for the early admission to the Wizarding World
• By 7.57a I had walked back to the Royal Pacific, gotten a dupe of my room key, and returned to the boat dock
• This time there was a longish line for the boat, but I got on the next (8.01a) departure anyway, was back at the Citywalk dock by 8.06a, and in Hogsmeade by 8.16a

MORE ON THE ROOMS AT THE ROYAL PACIFIC

As noted on the first page of this review, Royal Pacific rooms are on the small side and hold four.

As you enter, the split bath will be on one side and the closet and connecting door on the other.

The bath has one sink (this compromise lets the bedroom space be a little bigger) and a semi-screened cutout between the sink area and the bedroom.  This cutout will be a negative for most families, as it limits the ability to manage noise and light from the sink area.

In the bedroom area you’ll find two queens and an upholstered chair on one side.

The other side has a largish round table with two chairs, and a credenza with drawers, a small TV, a mini-bar (but no separate fridge) and a coffee maker.

(You can order a mini-fridge for an additional fee.)

As noted on the first page, there’s no balcony.

These rooms are adequate for a family of four.

There’s enough space, but no more than enough.

The theming of the rooms (and the room towers) is scant; one could be anywhere.

MORE ON THE ROYAL PACIFIC RESORT

The best overall features of the Royal Pacific are its pool, its general theming, its price, its access to the parks, and all the sit-down dining options it provides.

The pool is particularly a marvel, and in its size, meandering, distinctive areas, and decoration has few peers at Walt Disney World.

My photos of the pool–on this and also on the first page of this review–don’t begin to do it justice.

The Royal Pacific is pet-friendly and takes a European attitude to smoking.

It has price seasons similar to those at the Disney World resorts.

Before Harry Potter opened, additional discounts were widely available.  They are now much less common.

Military families may find special discounts at various times of the year. See Universal Parks Military Discounts.  Some specific 2011 Universal military discounts are here.

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HOTELS FOR THE WIZARDING WORLD OF HARRY POTTER

This site’s Instructions for the Wizarding World of Harry Potter suggest that families wishing to visit Harry Potter that can afford it book a room at Loews Royal Pacific Resort.

This is because the Universal resorts (the Royal Pacific, Portofino Bay, and Hard Rock) give terrific perks at Universal Orlando to hotel guests.

Most relevant to Harry Potter is that the Wizarding World opens to guests of these hotels one hour before it opens to the general public. (If you are staying just one night, this is true both your day of check-in and your day of check-out.)

This makes it particularly easy to fit in both Ollivanders and Harry Potter and the Forbidden Journey without hours of waiting.

Another great perk is that Universal hotel guests can use their room key as the equivalent of a FASTPASS for many rides at any time.  This does not currently apply to the Forbidden Journey or Ollivanders--the only perk that applies to them is the early entry.

All three hotels are nice, convenient to both parks at Universal Orlando, and expensive.

• Portofino Bay is the most expensive and  gorgeous, but its theme will go over the head of most kids
• Hard Rock Hotel is the next most expensive, and appealing to older kids who like music
• The Royal Pacific is the least expensive of the three, and its Indonesian/South Seas theming is the most accessible of the three to younger kids.

For most families, the Royal Pacific will be the best choice. [Read more →]