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April 2014 at Walt Disney World

by Dave

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OVERVIEW: APRIL 2014 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews April 2014 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

The first week of April 2014—beginning March 29– will see moderate crowds and high prices. The week beginning 4/5 will have a pre-Easter lull in crowds, but still high prices.

Because of spring break crowds, the week before Easter, beginning April 12, will see wildly high crowds and prices. The late Easter in 2014 means the week after Easter won’t be as bad as in recent years.

The week beginning April 26th will be wonderful.
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September 18, 2013 59 Comments

Cheat Sheet for Walt Disney World in 2014

by Dave

My four-page Walt Disney World Cheat Sheet–an example page is to the right–includes a number of this site’s famous charts and graphs. It’s updated to reflect FastPass+.

In total, the cheat sheet provides the key stuff you need for planning your 2014 first family visit to Walt Disney World.

Click here to open it as a PDF–it’s 1.47 MB, so might take a bit.

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September 17, 2013 120 Comments

Many More Disney World Resorts to Be Added to Fastpass+ Test

by Dave

DISNEY RESORTS TO BE ADDED TO FASTPASS+ TESTING

As predicted by the “Mysterious A” on this site almost a month ago, reported on disboards.com a couple of days ago and other sites since, and confirmed by Kerri, one of my twitter followers who got FastPass+ for Coronado Springs for an October 31 arrival date, the number of resorts in the current FastPass+ test will be hugely expanded over the next month or so.

Below are resorts already in the test, and after that the arrival dates on which others will be added.

No one knows for sure if the test will continue after the announced end date of October 31. Most expect it to do so; others think it will be on hold after 10/31 until after the Christmas/New Years holiday weeks.

Me? Well, on September 12, Jay Rasulo, Disney CFO, said this at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2013 Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference:

“…By the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2014 we will have substantial [Fastpass+] coverage of our resort guests…” (p10)

Disney’s first fiscal quarter end is at the end of December 2014, so I find it hard to interpret Rasulo’s comments as supporting any other interpretation than that FastPass+ availability will continue after 10/31 at most or all of the resorts in, or entering, the test.

That is, I think FastPass+ will continue to be largely available to Walt Disney World resort hotel guests after October 31st.

And for everybody else? Well, here’s what Jay said about that, continuing the same answer quoted above: “and ultimately all guests who visit the property…” So everybody else is still in the “ultimately someday” category.

RESORTS ALREADY IN THE TEST

Disney’s Animal Kingdom Lodge – Jambo House
Disney’s Animal Kingdom Villas – Jambo House
Disney’s Art of Animation Resort
Disney’s Beach Club Resort
Disney’s Beach Club Villas
Disney’s Contemporary Resort
Disney’s Polynesian Resort
Disney’s Pop Century Resort
Disney’s Port Orleans Resort – Riverside
Disney’s Yacht Club Resort

RESORTS TO BE ADDED, BY ARRIVAL DATE

September 30

Disney’s Animal Kingdom Lodge – Kidani Village
Disney’s All-Star Movies Resort
Bay Lake Tower at Disney’s Contemporary Resort
Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort and Spa
Disney’s Port Orleans Resort – French Quarter

October 7

Disney’s All-Star Sports Resort
Disney’s BoardWalk Inn
Disney’s BoardWalk Villas
Disney’s Caribbean Beach Resort

October 14

Disney’s All-Star Music Resort
Disney’s Coronado Springs Resort
Disney’s Old Key West Resort
Disney’s Wilderness Lodge
Villas at Disney’s Wilderness Lodge

October 21

Disney’s Fort Wilderness Resort and Campground
Disney’s Saratoga Springs Resort and Spa

October 23

The Villas at Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort and Spa

For more on Fastpass+, see this and this.

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September 16, 2013 37 Comments

Walt Disney World Crowds in 2014: What’s Up, and What’s New

by Dave

PREDICTIONS ABOUT DISNEY WORLD CROWD IN 2014

This is a supplement to my general material on the best and worst times to visit Walt Disney World and my specific Disney World crowd calendar.

I published a revision of the 2014 crowd calendar earlier this summer—the last revision needed, barring typos or unanticipated events—after the full set of public school calendars I analyze (about 180 this year) became available.

The 2014 calendar revision includes both some changes in approach and in specific week rankings—though only a couple of weeks changed crowd class–e.g. from “green” (lower waits) to “black” (moderate waits)–or week class, e.g. from “recommended” to “not recommended.”

The purpose of my Disney World crowd calendar is to indicate (especially for first-time visitors who may never return, but the math is true for everybody) better weeks, which are marked in green; not so good weeks, marked in black; and bad weeks, marked in red.

Because my recommended itineraries are 9 days and 8 nights, “weeks” as I define them begin on Saturdays and end 9 days later on a Sunday. That is, they include two weekends and the weekdays between. I’m not like other people, but I am consistent to myself…

Each week gets a crowd rating, from 1 to 11, where 1 is lowest crowds. In a bold step, for the 2014 crowd calendar I added “4” and “8.” There’s a long story behind that, which I’ll skip so that I keep my one remaining reader.

These ratings are ordinal, not cardinal. A week rated “9” is not three times worse than one rated “3”—but it should be better than a week rated 10, and worse than one rated 8.

Ok, with all that preamble out of the way, here’s some comments on 2014 crowds at Walt Disney World, focused on weeks that got revised but also including some general observations on each month.

DISNEY WORLD CROWDS IN 2014: NOTES AND CHANGES

January 2014

New Years crowds are driven by school holidays, which are profoundly affected by the day of New Years. A midweek New Years means many kids are off that whole January week, with massive crowds continuing through the Saturday after New Years. That’s what we see in 2014, with crowds extending to Saturday January 4th.

The rest of January tends to be low-crowd, with exceptions over the Marathon Weekend and Martin Luther King Weekend. The week beginning January 11 has the Marathon at one end and MLK weekend at the other (though with great days in between), so I bumped its overall rating from 3 to 4 to reflect the weekend effects.

February 2014

Crowds are high in February beginning the Thursday before Presidents Day through the Saturday after.

Most kids get just a three day weekend here, but a ton of kids in the snowier New England states have the whole week of President’s Day off—and other kids are taken out of school. So crowds this week are massive.

Other kids get a longer weekend beginning Thursday or Friday at the end of the week before Presidents Day, and Disney also has a dance competition that begins late that week, and another running event—the Princess Half-Marathon– at the end of the week of President’s Day.

To reflect the impact of earlier-beginning long weekend holidays and the dance competition, I changed the week rating of the week beginning 2/11 from 3 to 4. This week will be fine until Thursday, but then crowds will build.

The week beginning 2/22/14 had its rating changed from 2 to 3, to reflect the weekend crowds at the beginning of the week from President’s Day and hangover effects from the running events the weekend of the 22nd.

The rest of February is great from a crowd point of view.

March 2014

March and April are the hardest times to forecast. Crowds are affected by the date of Easter, traditional school break dates in districts that don’t tie their spring breaks to Easter, and the need of northeasterners to get away from the snow. I can quantify the impact of spring break dates, but not so well the ebb and flow of those escaping the snow.

Unless Easter is very early, typically the first week of March is fine—and I’m forecasting it as such in 2014. However, I’m a little worried about the impact of visitors from the massive HIMSS conference (which ends 2/27) and for that reason have bumped the crowd rating for the week beginning 3/1 from 3 to 4.

The rest of March looks pretty bad to me…

April 2014

In my draft 2014 crowd calendar, I had thought that the week beginning March 29 would be pretty good, but the school calendar analysis showed more kids on break that week than I had expected. (I’ve figured out how to get this closer for 2015.) So I’ve changed my crowd rating of this week from 3 to 5, moving it from the “low” to the “moderate” class. It may be worse—but in my dataset, 80% of districts with this week off also have another major spring break.

The week that begins two weeks before Easter typically has few US kids on break (many UK kids are off then, but not enough to profoundly affect crowds), and this is true for 2014 as well. The week before Easter is always the worst week for kid’s breaks—and will be so in 2014 as well. The week after Easter is never good, but it is better in years–like 2014–with a very late Easter. Based on actual break schedules, I’ve lowered the crowd rating for the week after Easter from 9 to 8—still bad, but not as bad as some years.

Late April crowds beginning seven days after Easter are just fine!

May 2014

Early May crowds are fine. Later May sees a build in crowds, peaking the week that includes Memorial Day, partly because of a trend towards earlier ends to summer breaks—which leads to earlier beginnings to these breaks, and more kids out of school in late May and early June.

Star Wars Weekends clot Disney’s Hollywood Studios Friday-Sundays in later May and early June.

June 2014

Early June crowds have been worse than forecast both of the past two years, and schools are out even earlier in 2014. As a result, I’ve changed the rating for the week beginning 6/7 from 7 (Moderate-plus) to 8 (high minus). Later June sees even higher crowds.

July 2014

Some kids don’t get out of school til the end of June, and others go back in early August. But pretty much all kids are out in July, so it’s the worst month for crowding at Disney World (some holiday weeks the rest of the year are worse than any single July week, but overall, July is the worst month).

There may be fewer tourists from South America during their July 2014 winter break because of the FIFA world championships in Brazil absorbing some vacation time and budget. But I’m not expecting to see this affect July crowding much—though, as we’ll see, it may have an effect in September.

August 2014

August crowds seem to have been getting a little better, likely for the same reason that early June is getting a little worse—the trend towards earlier returns to school.

As a result, I’ve dropped the crowd ratings in each of the first three weeks of August 2014, from 9 to 8 the week beginning 8/2, 9 to 7 the week beginning 8/9, and 7 to 6 the week beginning 8/16. However, all three weeks remain firmly in the “avoid” or “not recommended” categories…

Later August is just fine from a crowd point of view.

September 2014

September is typically the lowest crowd month at Disney World. All US kids are back in school by early in the month, and parents resist taking their kids out of school at the beginning of terms (that’s why later January and early February are almost as uncrowded).

I have, however, bumped the ratings up for the week of 9/13, which went from 1—lowest crowds to 3—low crowds.

There’s two issues I see this week, which is typically spring break for South American kids (though many families take their kids out of school the week before as well, which I’ve bumped from 1 to 2).

One is that some South American families who missed their traditional July visit because of FIFA will come in September instead. Second is that the next part of Harry Potter will have opened at Universal by now, creating an even stronger than normal draw to Orlando for South American spring breakers.

I’m still classing these weeks as low—just not as low as in prior years. Note that beginning in early September and going through most of the rest of the year, which day you go to the Magic Kingdom really matters.

October 2014

Other than the week that includes Columbus Day (the week beginning 10/11 in 2014) October is a great month for avoiding crowds at Walt Disney World. Worries some express about the impact of fall breaks on Disney World crowds are overblown. I made no changes between the draft and final ratings in October.

November 2014

November has two problematic weeks—Thanksgiving week, and the first full week of the month, Jersey Week.

Jersey Week is not bad, but is worse than the weeks before and after it. Thanksgiving week is bad.

The month’s crowd ratings did not change.

December 2014

You won’t find a sound guidebook or website that does not trumpet the period between the Sunday after Thanksgiving and the middle of December as a wonderful time to visit. The three weeks here are always my top three ranked weeks of the year for Walt Disney World visits, and are so again in 2014.

Well, people read this stuff and make decisions based on it, and every year these three weeks get a little more crowded.

So for 2014 I’ve increased the crowd rating of each of these three weeks—the week beginning 11/29 from 2 to 3, the week beginning 12/6 (Pop Warner Week) from 3 to 4, and the week beginning 12/13 from 2 to 3. These are still classed as “low crowd” weeks—just not as low crowd as they were just a few short years ago.

I worry sometimes that this is my fault…my “Weeks to Visit Ranked in Order” pages have been seen more than 2.5 million times…but then I decide that I’m just not that important.

Later December—the weeks that include Christmas and New Years—is always a mess, and the mid-week holidays in 2014 mean that all of the weeks beginning 12/20 and 12/27/2014 will be horrible in 2014 as well. My crowd calendar goes to 11 just for these weeks…