Chance of Hurricane Affecting Florida during Visit by Arrival Date
By Dave Shute
THE HURRICANE SEASON AT WALT DISNEY WORLD
The thumbnail (click to open) illuminates the chance of a cyclonic storm affecting any part of Florida during any part of a 9 day visit to Walt Disney World.
It’s by arrival date, and is based on 30 years of data.
It helps illuminate the Disney World (and Florida) hurricane season more specifically than general statements like “The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.”
The takeaway is that a 9 day Walt Disney World vacation has the biggest chance of being affected for arrival dates in late August through early October.
Ninety percent of activity is from August through October; 50% between August 20th and October 10th; and the peak of the storm season is September 10th.
It is unusual for a Disney vacation to be ruined by a cyclonic storm–but it happens.
DATA SOURCES
All this site’s weather pages except for the material on cyclonic storms and on tornadoes are based on 20 years of data from the National Weather Service ending in December 2006. The cyclonic storm material is based on 30 years of data from Wikipedia. The tornado material is from NOAA/NCDC and goes from 1950 through October 2009.
ORLANDO WEATHER LINKS
- Weather and When to Go
- High Temperatures Year Round
- Average Rainfall by Arrival Date
- Hurricanes
- Tornadoes
- Chance of Winter High Temperature Over 75
- Pool Days November through February
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120 comments
My family and I are visiting Walt Disney World in Orlando for the very first time 9/25 – 10/1 this year. What can we expect for weather? I am terrified that a hurricane might keep us from the most magical experience that we have been waiting for our entire lives!!
Hi Krista, while that’s in the hurricane peak season, just on the odds you should be fine. It’s been almost a decade since a hurricane had any material affect at Disney World.
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Schöner post:)
Danke!
[…] Weeks 20-27 have one thing in common: they occur during but the peak of thehurricane season. […]
[…] mean a better week. The lowest weeks are low for a reason–typically because they are in the hurricane or the ride closure […]
Hi, My Husband And I Are Planning A famIly Vacation Sometime In 2015, But We Are Concerened About Crowds And Weather. We Are Trying To Figure Out The Best Tine In August To Go. Qe Dont Want It To Be Hot As We Have Young Kids But We Dont Want It To Be Raining Either. Any suggestions
Hi Ashley, sorry, but there’s no time in August that doesn’t promise to be quite hot and with the risk of afternoon rain. Crowds are a mess in earlier August, but fine late in the month. However, late August is also the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season–see https://yourfirstvisit.net/planning-your-first-family-trip/when-to-go/next-best-dates/weather-and-when-to-go/chance-of-cyclonic-storm-affecting-florida/
For much better times to visit, see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/10/15/2014-weeks-visit-walt-disney-world-ranked-order/
[…] mean a better week. The lowest weeks are low for a reason–typically because they are in the hurricane or the ride closure […]
Hi Dave,
Planning to be at Walt Disney with my family from June 5 through June 14. I know it’s going to be crowded and probably very hot. What do you suggest as far as which days are best to go to which park. We are planning to go to Universal Orlando as well, so I wanted to know what days of the week are better for Walt Disney parks because I know they are more crowded than Universal. Also, I haven’t purchased our tickets to the theme park yet, any suggestion about where we can get a 4 or 5 day park tickets for less? We are a family of 4. Thank you.
Hi Rozan, first on tickets check out Undercover Tourist (link here: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2014/02/23/disney-world-2014-ticket-prices-unless-they-go-up-again/ )
Tell me how old the kids are, and I’ll then advise you on parks!
Hi Dave,
My family and I are planning to visit WDW for the very first time 11/08/- 11/15/2014. What can we expect for weather and crowds? Thank you!
Hi Nena! See this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2014/04/15/november-2014-at-walt-disney-world/
Hi we are planning our 1st trip to WDW in Nov 2015. Would like to stay at AoA-Cars and hoping for free dinning. There will be 3 adults and 2 kids (girl-8, boy-almost 7). Can you give me any good tips? Also looking for your 2015 book. Thanks.
Hi Jeanie! I dunno if there will be free dining then or not. In this year’s deal, only about a third of November was in–see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2014/05/07/general-public-free-dining-for-select-arrival-dates-august-december-2014/
Hi
We are travelling to WDW 09/16-09/24. I’m worried about the rain and thunderstorms that they are calling for. Will it be enough to ruin our holiday? Or are they mid day bursts of rain that only last for a few minutes?
Jacqueline, daily rain is common at WDW starting in late May, and most people do just fine with it!
Trying to determine if our 2nd trip to WCW should include a cruise. We are thinking week after Thanksgiving, and maybe the 4 day Bahamas trip. What are your thoughts on this as we still have so much of WCW we did not see the first time. 9 of us, 6 adults kids 10 ,10 and 11.
Michele, sorry, I only have time to focus on the parks, so don’t have anything to offer on a cruise…
hi dave i am from south america and i am planning to visit miami and orlando on june th 15 till june th 20 off 2015 .Can you please tell me how the weather will be and if it will be crowded at universal studio.Also will there still be bargains to make for schopping.I dont want my first visit to usa be spoiled by the weather and big crowds
Ricky, summer weather is hot and humid, and because most US kids are out of school, crowds are high.
Hey Dave,we are planning a trip on August 2, coming back on August 9 taking our two older kids. What will be the weather conditions, is it bad and if so should we take the risk? Also is it going to be super hot and crowded? What should we bring and wear, if so? According to this date, do you recommend we go to WDW sometime else with the kids? Thanks, Aisha
Hi Dave planning on visiting the sunshine state again only with our 2 kids next either next Easter around mid April or August towards the end . I noticed the end if August beginning of September why is this time so quiet , it’s peak here in the UK ?? Which one would you go with? Thanks
Karen, it’s because of the back to school dates for US kids. See this for more. Mid-April in 2016 is a better choice than August–the weather then is much more humane! See also this.
We are going to Disney, Orlando and are arriving on August 30 2015, we have been watching the weather regarding hurricane Erika, would you recommend rescheduling our trip?
Sharee, do you have travel insurance? Is this your only ever trip? Are you staying at WDW–and if so have you seen their hurricane policy?
We are going on our first vacation staying at Universal’s Cabana Bay Resort arriving August 29 and staying until Sept 7 but I’m concerned about Hurricane Erika, I don’t think we have travel insurance but I’m worried that it won’t be safe… do you know how that will affect Orlando and if it would make a significant impact on our trip?
Grace, right now it’s looking like just rain. Rain is not a bad thing–it cuts down on the crowds.
Dave, we are not staying at WDW resort and do not have travel ins.
Sharee, looks like it’ll be just rain.
I’m looking at going 23th Spetember to- 6th October. I was wondering if this is a bad time to go? It looks good to me though but it’s Hurricane season.. Will this affect the holiday and should I book it? I will be staying at the Hyatt Grand Cypress FYI
David, it’s the peak of the hurricane season. That said, a hurricane hasn’t materially affected Disney World for a decade.
Hi Dave,
Planning our family trip for 10/19/17 – 10/29/17 for 14 plp. This will probably be our only trip to Florida as we live in So Cal and have many similar attractions. We have chosen a slower time and will be visiting the parks Mon-Fri and other local attractions on either end of trip.
My question is I’m leaning towards renting a large house withing 10 -15 minutes of the parks. I understand you lose some benefits (magic morning/on site transportation etc) but the cost difference, even with paying for parking etc. to what we can have in a house in tempting. Any experience & thoughts in this area. If we stayed on property we would probably need to stay off property for 5 days and on for 5 days, seems more of a hassle then necessary. Group 8 adults/ 6 kids (5-15). Thanks for any insight/advice.
Beth
Beth, the principal loss will be booking FastPass+ at 30 days, rather than 60. This means you may be shut out of short waits on a few rides. But I get that with a group that size the savings of staying off-site are amazing…
Whether you live in Florida or are planning for a visit during hurricane season, it is best to be prepared. Many residents and visitors can be caught off guard when a strong storm is approaching. There are many things you can do to get ready for an incoming storm to protect you and your family. Garden Communities Florida, with apartment communities throughout Florida, is all too familiar with how these storm can drastically affect you and your loved ones. They have compiled a list of preparedness tips so you can stay safe, its is worth a read http://blog.gardencommunitiesfl.com/2015/06/30/hurricane-preparedness-florida/
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