Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

2012 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

In the image below you’ll find Walt Disney World 2012 crowd forecasts. (Click it to enlarge it; when open, click it again.)

(For the 2013 Crowd Calendar, click here)

Crowd levels are ranked by week from 1-11 in the following way:

1: Lowest of the year

2: Lower

3: Low

5: Moderate-minus

6: Moderate

7: Moderate-plus

9: High

10: Higher

11: Highest

HOW TO INTERPRET THE 2012 DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR

The “low crowd” weeks–those rated 1-3–represent the only crowd levels a family visiting for the first time, and unsure if it will ever return, should consider.

However, lower crowds, especially lowest crowds, do not always mean a better week. The lowest weeks are low for a reason–typically because they are in the hurricane or the ride closure seasons. See this for recommended 2012 weeks for first time visitors, and for the 2012 Week Picker, see this.

The “moderate crowd” weeks–those rated 5-7–have crowd levels I would not recommend to first time visitors. However, I’d go during such weeks myself with no hesitation, and think these levels are OK for returning visitors who don’t need to see everything and already know how to work Walt Disney World.

The “high crowd” weeks–those rated 9-11–should be avoided by everyone. They aren’t, which is why they are so high.

You may have noted that there’s no level 4 or 8. There’s a reason for that.

MY DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR GOES UP TO 11

My analytics only let me distinguish 9 groups–the lowest through the highest crowd levels noted above.

Since the influence of the Unofficial Guide and TouringPlans.com has led almost all Disney World crowd calendars to top out at 10, this presented a problem of needing to skip a number. The skipped number is hard to place among 9.

However, I’ve always thought that the really nastiest weeks of the year deserved an 11 for emphasis. So I assigned 11 to “highest.” That let me skip two numbers, the ones that separate the moderate crowd levels from those higher and lower.

A NOTE ON DISNEY WORLD CROWD FORECAST ACCURACY

This site’s forecasting approach has stood the test of time.  But nobody’s perfect, and it can’t hurt you to look at other Disney World crowd calendars—such as TouringPlans.com –far and away the best daily crowd calendar on the web.

(TouringPlans.com charges a trivially small fee. Buy Testa and Sehlinger’s book and get a discount on TouringPlans.com.)

I particularly suggest checking other forecasts for 2012 Spring Break–late February, March and early April–visits, as crowds in this period are the hardest to forecast.

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the next best dates, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2012 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2012 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2013 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2013 Week Picker, click here
  • For 2014 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2012 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2013 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2014 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2012 price seasons, see this
  • For 2013 price seasons, click here
  • For projected 2014 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

VERSION 2 OF THE BEST WEEKS TO VISIT DISNEY WORLD IN 2012 IS OUT

I’ve just updated my list of 2012 Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World, Ranked in Order.

The update reflects

• Disney’s release a week or so ago of final 2012 prices
• My final analysis of 2011/2012 school break calendars (the last of which became available this week) and
• The impact of those school calendars on my draft 2012 crowd calendar (which I’ll release later next week)

I’ve also been a little less of a knucklehead in some elements of the logic.

For example, a group of weeks with similar crowd levels (and similar in other key characteristics) but with different prices are now ranked in price order…

The result of the update is that many weeks shift a bit, a few shift a lot, and there’s a new number one week!

There’s more here on what moved and why, but for the moment let me just thank Carl at Dad’s Guide to WDW, who has been recommending one logic change for years!

Click here for the revised 2012 weeks in order.

DISNEY CROWD CALENDAR UPDATE

I’ve updated my Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar to reflect recently-released December 2011 Disney World operating hours.

You can find the updated crowd calendar here.

A reminder–I always recommend checking another crowd calendar–preferably that at TouringPlans.com–before committing to a specific time to go to Walt Disney World.

I’ll be publishing my 2012 Disney World crowd calendar later this month.

In the meantime, for a consensus view on lower-crowd 2012 weeks, click here.

OVERVIEW: DECEMBER 2011 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews December 2011 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours, and ends with week by week summaries.

The first half of December, with lower crowds, lower prices, and terrific Christmas programs, has some of the best weeks of the year to visit.

Crowds will rise later in the week of the 17th, and will be at unimaginable levels closer to Christmas and through New Years.

DECEMBER 2011 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The first half of December is one of the least crowded periods at Walt Disney World.

Crowds will begin to build in the week of the 17th, and will hit almost unimaginable levels between Christmas Eve and New Years.

Park closings to additional guests are common in this period, as are 8a openings and daily morning Extra Magic Hours.

See this for more on projected crowds at Walt Disney World.

DECEMBER 2011 PRICES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Resort prices begin the month in the Fall price season, one of Disney World’s lowest price seasons.

Value resort prices begin the month 15% higher than the lowest of the year, and moderate resort prices are 7% higher. Deluxe prices begin the month 12% higher than the lowest of the year.

All resort prices then bump up on 12/23 to 95% higher than the lowest of the year for values, 55% for moderates, and 70% for deluxes.

Click the image to see a Pop Century Resort example of Disney World resort pricing.

(When open, click again to enlarge.)

See this for more on prices at Walt Disney World.

SPECIAL EVENTS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD IN DECEMBER 2011

Each of the parks has wonderful Christmas decorations, and special Christmas programs.

• At the Magic Kingdom, Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party—a special event that requires its own ticket—runs on many nights through the first two-thirds of the month. Later in the month, its signature events—a special Christmas parade, and special Christmas fireworks—are available to all guests.
• At Epcot, the evening fireworks show Illuminations has special Christmas additions. In addition, most nights Christmas carols are sung by massed choirs in the Candlelight Processional. Many of the countries in Epcot’s World Showcase have special Christmas events. Finally, a Christmas tree lighting ceremony occurs each evening at 6p.
• At Disney’s Hollywood Studios, the Christmas celebration is the holiday lights in the Streets of America area. The evening opening ceremony is 6p.
• At Disney’s Animal Kingdom, the 3.45p parade is redone to a Christmas theme.

See the Basic Itinerary, particularly Sunday, Tuesday, and Friday, for more details on these Christmas events.

New Year’s Eve festivities will happen on December 31, 2011 at Disney World’s Epcot, Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios theme parks, and also at the Magic Kingdom on December 30.

The Animal Kingdom has no special events and closes at 8p.

• Epcot is open until 1a on New Year’s Eve; Disney’s Hollywood Studios until midnight for the general public, and 3a for Walt Disney World Resort hotel guests; and the Magic Kingdom is scheduled to be open until 2a
• The Magic Kingdom will have Wishes at 8.30p and special New Year’s Eve fireworks at 11.50p.
• Epcot will have its Illuminations fireworks show at 7p and 11.40p
• Disney’s Hollywood Studios will have fireworks at midnight
• Note that alcohol is not available at the Magic Kingdom, but is available at Epcot and Disney’s Hollywood Studios

For more details on operating hours, see this.

The Magic Kingdom will have the same fireworks at the same times on 12/30. This date will likely be a little less crowded than 12/31.

DECEMBER 2011 DEALS AND DISCOUNTS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD.

Deals are available for December 2011. For the details, click here.

DECEMBER 2011 WEATHER AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

December weather can be quite variable. Days can be perfect or quite cool.Click the image, or go to Weather and When to Go to Disney World, for more on temperatures, etc.

DECEMBER 2011 OPERATING HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Park operating hours vary by the day, and sometimes change without notice. It is rare for hours to be shorter than Disney has publicized, but Disney may lengthen them in response to unanticipated crowds.

The best way to keep up with operating hours is to check Disney’s official calendars, usually available six months in advance.

These calendars can be found by clicking the following links:

• Magic Kingdom Calendar
• Hollywood Studios Calendar
• Animal Kingdom Calendar
• Epcot Calendar

The calendars can be tricky to use–see this for hints on how to work with Walt Disney World’s online calendars.

WEEK BY WEEK COMMENTS FOR DECEMBER 2011 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD BY ARRIVAL DATE

The week rankings that follow below are from 2011 weeks to visit Walt Disney World, ranked in order, and are designed for first-time visitors who do not know whether or not they will return.

Click the image for a calendar view of 2011 weeks (when open, keep clicking to enlarge).

11/26 Prices 7-15% higher than the lowest of the year. Crowds will be low. Week Ranking=3. Recommended week. Use the Basic Itinerary.

12/3 Prices 7-15% higher than the lowest of the year. Crowds will be low. Week Ranking=1. Recommended week. Use the Basic Itinerary.

12/10 Prices 7-15% higher than the lowest of the year. Crowds will be low. Week Ranking=2. Recommended week. Use the Basic Itinerary.

12/17 Prices begin 7-15% higher than the lowest of the year, but on 12/23 increase to 55-95% higher.  Crowds will be moderate overall, low at the beginning and increasing to high at the end. Week Ranking=14. Recommended week. Use the Basic Itinerary, but see this for required changes

12/24 Prices 55-95% higher than lowest of the year. Crowds will be the highest of the year. Week Ranking=45. Use the Summer Itinerary (not a typo 🙂 ) but see this for required and suggested changes

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the next best dates, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2012 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2012 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2013 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2012 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2013 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2012 price seasons, see this
  • For 2013 price seasons, click here
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

THE LOWEST CROWD WEEKS AT DISNEY WORLD

I’ve been working lately on my formal Disney World crowd calendar for 2012.

(The 2011 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar is here; my 2012 Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World, Ranked in Order is here.)

For reasons I’ll post about later, the data sources I use as the basis for my Disney Crowd Calendar are becoming a little less reliable—especially for the relative ranking of moderate and high crowd weeks. So I’ve been re-thinking my approach.

See the image for the sophisticated analytic tools I use to support this work.

While doing such noodling I noticed a disboards thread on the lowest crowds at Walt Disney World over the year.

I was surprised at the variance among and vehemence with which various times were proposed.

So I went to my bookshelf and here’s what I found:

• Guidebook 1: Lowest crowds right after Labor Day
• Guidebook 2: Lowest crowds the first two weeks of December
• Guidebook 3: Lowest crowds in the middle of January

My own approach (which is good at “low” but not really reliable for “lowest”) at the first level, before modifications that I apply to it, suggests January-early February, and October.

Well, all these can’t be right. The only people who really know work for Disney World, and TouringPlans.com is the next most reliable source that I know about.

That said, I thought it would be interesting to canvass a number of sources and find how much they agreed or disagreed.

My starting point was the 2011 editions of four well-known guidebooks, the calendars on three strong websites, my own first level 2012 calendar, and a proprietary crowd calendar that the team at LeaveittoGenie.com was kind enough to share with me.

THE WISDOM OF CROWDS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Only three of these nine had a specific point of view on 2012 at all, and only one (mine) was complete.

So what I did was infer their principles and apply them to 2012, adjusting for the changing dates of key holidays. In some cases I also had to infer (usually straightforward—see the analytic resources available in the image higher on the page) the distinction between low and lowest.

(In my “other” job, I’m a consultant specializing in business strategy, so this future oriented inference—I almost said BS—is what I do every day.)

THE LOWEST CROWD WEEKS OF 2012 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

See the image for the result.

(Click it to open it; once open, click it again to enlarge it.)

Based on my inferences, 21 different weeks would be indicated by at least one source as lowest, with an average of about 3.5 votes each (out of nine possible).

Seven weeks were noted as lowest crowd in half or more of the sources (in the image, they are highlighted in green):

• January after the Marathon Weekend until early February, excluding Martin Luther King Day week, and
• The week after Labor Day until the opening of the Epcot Food and Wine Festival

THE LOW CROWD WEEKS OF 2012 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Based on the same approach, I also built a view of the “low crowd” weeks of the year at Walt Disney World.

Click the image to open it up.

• Thirty two weeks got noted as low
• Twenty two got votes as low from more than half of the calendars

A couple more in later April were impossible for me to infer because of the major change in Easter dates compared to 2011.

Likely some of these April weeks will get promoted into the “more than half” category once the sources develop their official 2012 calendars—remember that for almost all I am inferring some or all of their 2102 crowd calendars from their approach to 2011.

Click the image to see all these weeks–the ones with more than half the crowd calendars supporting them are highlighted in green.

(By the way, it’s because I am basing this on such inferences that I’m not identifying the sources—any errors here—and there’s bound to be some—are mine, not theirs.)

So there you have it—a best efforts shot at a broad-based view of the lowest and low-crowd weeks of 2012 at Walt Disney World.

Disney has posted some highly unusual operating hours 5/20 through 5/22.  These coincide with the first Star Wars weekend, and also with the opening of the re-imagined Star Tours.

Disney’s Hollywood Studios–where the weekend happens and the ride is located–will be open from 8a-midnight the 20th, 21st, and 22nd.

This is three or four hours longer than the first Star Wars Weekend last year, and makes sense–the new ride is not only an attractor itself, but has been conceptualized to encourage multiple rides by having dozens of different possible experiences.

Mark Goldhaber of MousePlanet.com is reporting here that “some within Walt Disney World management are predicting that May 20 will be the busiest day in the history of Disney’s Hollywood Studios.”

But a couple of things suggest Disney may be expecting much more than multiple Star Tours riders.

First, Fantasmic is rarely shown Fridays and Saturdays, but both the 2oth and 21st not only is it on, but is on for two shows.

In the last six months, Fantasmic has been shown 14% of non-holiday Fridays and 18% of non-holiday Saturdays, and on both the Friday and Saturday of a non-holiday weekend exactly once; on last year’s first Star Wars weekend, it had one show, on Friday.

Second, the Animal Kingdom not only has unusual Saturday morning extra magic hours the 21st, but also has an 8a opening Sunday the 22nd–almost unheard of outside the busiest holiday weeks. As a result, for Disney resort hotel guests, the Animal Kingdom will open at 8a both weekend days.

Finally, the Magic Kingdom opens at 8a the 21st.  Saturday 8a openings are becoming coming at the Magic Kingdom–they’ve been happening many Saturdays since early March–so I don’t let this influence my thinking too much.

If what was going on was just the extra hours at the Studios, and the Magic Kingdom early Saturday, I wouldn’t be thinking big crowds outside of the Studios and especially the Star Tours area.

But adding in the unusual Fantasmics–not added for the Star Wars crew–and the unusual hours at the Animal Kingdom, leads me to suspect that Disney is projecting large crowds resort wide May 20 through May 22.