Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

DISNEY WORLD PRESIDENTS DAY CROWDS

Based on the comments I get on this site, year after year one of the things that most surprises people is how crowded the week of Presidents Day is at Walt Disney World.

Most schools just have one day off–the Monday holiday.

However, even so lots of other school kids have a four day weekend (Friday-Monday or Saturday-Tuesday).

Even more have the whole week that includes Presidents Day off. Most of the latter are from the Northeast, and really, really need a break from the snow and cold…and thus the massive crowds that week at Disney World!

See the right side of chart, which shows the weighted proportion of the 12.4 million kids in my 2015-2016 school year calendar database with more than a three day weekend over President’s Day:

In 2016 Presidents Day is February 15th, shown in red.

Breaks begin the Friday before, continue at high levels through Tuesday, then stay at medium-high levels the rest of the week. As a result, crowds peak through Tuesday but are at high levels through Saturday the 20th.

In my 2016 crowd calendar I have the week that includes Presidents Day rated as 10/higher crowds.  By day, expect 11/highest crowds Saturday through Tuesday, and 9/high crowds the rest of the week.

MARDI GRAS CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Mardi Gras, on the left side of the chart, is the opposite. My comments worried about it tend to come from the few southeastern areas that have a multi-day holiday around it. But hardly anyone else does.

So Mardi Gras has little effect on February crowds unless it falls (as it did in 2015) the day after Presidents Day, in which case it makes a lousy week even more horrible.

In my 2016 crowd calendar I have the week that includes Mardi Gras rated as 5/moderate minus. This rating combines low crowds early in the week and high crowds later. Expect lower crowds through Wednesday the 10th, building crowds Thursday, and highest crowds Friday and over the weekend.

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DISNEY WORLD CROWDS FROM LATER DECEMBER 2015 TO EARLY JANUARY 2016

Disney World sees its highest crowds and prices of the year in the later third of December and the beginning of January, in the week that includes Christmas, and the next week that includes New Year’s Eve.

This is for a pretty basic reason: kids are out of school these weeks.

However, not every school district has the same break schedule.

In 2015/2016, more kids are out  New Year’s week than early in Christmas week, but there’s still plenty enough on break Christmas week to wildly crowd the parks…

SCHOOL BREAKS AND DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Most years, there two typical sorts of breaks:

• Long breakers–districts that take at least 2 full weeks (and three weekends) off
• Short breakers–districts that take off as close to only December 24 to January 1 as they can

In 2015, a Friday Christmas, and the patterning of school breaks around it, will make it easy for many families to head to Walt Disney World either week.

But the Friday New Year’s Day results in no schools re-opening between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

So almost all kids will be off all of the week that includes New Year’s Day, and unlike some years–like 2013–both weeks will be really lousy all week long.

ACTUAL 2015-2016 CHRISTMAS SEASON SCHOOL BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 160 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

(For how the database is built, see this.)

The weekends are in black and the two holidays–Christmas and New Year’s Day–in red.  Click the image enlarge it.

You can see that many breaks begin Saturday the 19th, with hardly any kids on break before then, but almost 30% of kids are still in school the first three weekdays of Christmas week.

By Christmas Eve, though, everyone is out, and pretty much everybody stays out of school through January 3, 2016.

A few–very few–breaks continue past January 3.

So I’ve classed both weeks as 11/highest crowds, but of the two, New Year’s week will be the worse.

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This site’s Disney World crowd calendars always show crowds dropping off in later August.

For example, in 2015, crowd rankings go from 8/high-minus at the beginning of August down to 2/lower in early September.

This page both explain how that comes about and also reviews how the site’s crowd calendars are built.

END OF SUMMER 2015 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The highest-crowd periods at Walt Disney World all have one thing in common: they are convenient times for parents to take their kids to Orlando. That is, they are times that kids are out of school and that parents traditionally can take off of work.

What’s not so clear until you do the numbers is that actual school vacation dates are much more varied than you’d think.  And there’s no good source you can go to that explains what all these varied dates are.

So every year about this time one of my nieces goes to more than 180 school district websites and captures all the key vacation dates for the upcoming academic year.

(This time of year because you’d be surprised many districts don’t put their calendars up for the upcoming year until June; this year, 170 of the 186 had their calendars out by the time we agreed to stop collecting data.)

These include the 100 largest school districts in the U.S., plus almost 90 more of the next largest school districts in the more highly-populated states east of the Mississippi–that is, the states from which in particular Walt Disney World draws its visitors.

I then create a database that shows based on district enrollment every kid who is off on every date, sum these by state, and weight them based on the state’s proportion of total US visits to this website (because Disney won’t tell me actual visitation by state!). See the image above for a screenshot example.

Finally, I calculate percentage of total weighted kids on break by date and use that to inform the crowd calendars. (There’s about 12.4 million actual kids in the database.)

Above are the results of this for when kids go back to school in 2015.

So you can see that

• Kids don’t start going back to school in real numbers until Monday 8/10
• More than a third are back in school the week beginning 8/15
• Almost 60% are back during the week beginning 8/22, and
• More than 80% are back in school before Labor Day.

In 2015, pretty much all kids are back in school by the Wednesday after Labor Day.

Moreover, vacation patterns typically don’t have people returning from their vacation the night before school begins, so the effect of these back-to-school dates is offset into earlier August by around a week.

Thus, in the 2015 crowd calendar, the week of 8/1 is rated 8/high-minus crowds, the week of 8/8 7/moderate-plus crowds, the week of 8/15 6/moderate crowds and the week of 8/22 4/low crowds.

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FALL BREAK CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD?

One of the things you’ll see now and then on the web is the claim that “fall breaks from school create big crowds at Walt Disney World.”

“Fall breaks” are multi-day school holidays before Thanksgiving, and, if material, would have an effect on Disney World—because Disney World is most crowded when it’s easy for kids to go.

If you check the facts, though, you’ll find that fall breaks are both uncommon and scattered across October and early November—other than Jersey Week and the weeks before and including Columbus Day.

Outside of those three weeks, you are much more likely to run into trouble in the fall by choosing to go to the Magic Kingdom or Epcot on a bad day—

• Epcot on a day when it’s open late for Food and Wine,
• The Magic Kingdom on a day when Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party or Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party is not showing, and evening hours and entertainment offerings are thus more extensive.

See the chart, which shows the weighted percent of US school kids in my database with more than a three-day weekend in 2015 in October and in November before Thanksgiving week.

In it, weekends are in black, and Columbus Day is in red. (The mid-week Veteran’s Day has no impact on breaks in 2015.) Everything else is blue.

The first conclusion you can draw is that the only time when more than 5% of kids are having more than a three day weekend is just before and then over the week that includes Columbus Day.

These are already known to be moderate crowd weeks—from the Columbus Day holiday and Canadian Thanksgiving—so as a “fall break” there’s no real news here.

Note also that no kids in my database of the 2105-2106 school year calendars of more than 12.4 million kids have a break weekend that extends to Veterans Day.  This holiday is celebrated on its actual date—November 11–although if it occurs over the weekend, days off will be on Friday or Monday.  So more than half of years, it does not lead to a three day weekend, as it does not in 2015. Since it is a Wednesday in 2015, breaks are not built around it at all.

Moreover, even if it does lead to a three-day weekend, most private, non-unionized employers don’t have it as a holiday, so it’s not a particularly great time for parents to go to Walt Disney World.

Second, beyond those, there’s not a lot of material fall breaks.  Yes, you can see them every week shown, but not much–at most around 5% of kids during Jersey Week. and more typically much less.  There’s just not enough here to materially affect your choices as to when to go to Walt Disney World, other than Jersey Week and the weeks before and including Columbus Day.

Note: none of this is about Thanksgiving week, which is quite crowded and a lousy time to go!

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OVERVIEW: DECEMBER 2015 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews December 2015 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Early December, with lower crowds, lower prices, and wonderful Christmas decorations and events, has the best weeks of the year to visit.

Later December with Christmas and New Year’s weeks has the highest crowds and prices of the year.

Park closings to additional guests are common in this period, as are 8a openings and daily morning Extra Magic Hours.

December also has a special party, Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party, a special evening event–with its own ticket–that has become a family tradition for many.

DECEMBER 2015 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Early December is one of the less crowded periods at Walt Disney World.

Later December–beginning the 19th in 2015–is the most crowded time of the year at Walt Disney World.

On a crowd scale of 1-11, the week beginning 11/28 has a crowd rating of 3/low, the week beginning 12/5 4/low-plus, the week beginning 12/12 3/low, and the weeks beginning 12/19 and 12/26 11/highest.

However, because of the crowd effects of the Christmas Party, even the first three weeks you can face higher much waits if you go to the parks on the wrong days.  See this for how to avoid these crowds.

See this for more on 2015 crowds at Disney World.

DECEMBER 2015 PRICES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

December 2015 prices begin 10% higher than the lowest of the year at the values, 8% higher at the moderates, and 10% higher at the deluxes.

On 12/11, they increase to 45% higher than the lowest of the year at the values, 30% higher at the moderates and 16% higher at the deluxes.

On 12/18 prices go to 80% higher than the lowest of the year at the values, 50% higher at the moderates, and 33% higher at the deluxes.

Value and moderate prices stay at this level the rest of the month; prices at the deluxes go up one more time on 12/25 to 55% higher than the lowest of the year, and stay at this level the rest of the month.

See this for more on 2015 resort hotel prices at Walt Disney World.

DECEMBER 2015 DEALS AND DISCOUNTS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Deals are available for December 2015. Details are here.

DECEMBER 2015 WEATHER AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Average temperatures trend down over December, and weather becomes quite variable.  Days can be perfect, or quite cool.

Click the image, or go to Weather and When to Go to Disney World, for more on temperatures.

DECEMBER 2015 SPECIAL EVENTS

December brings delightful Christmas festivities to Disney World:

• At the Magic Kingdom, Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party—a special event that requires its own ticket—runs on many nights through the first two-thirds of the month. Later in the month, its signature events—a special Christmas parade, and special Christmas fireworks—are available to all guests. Christmas decor is in place by the night of the first party–in 2015, November 7
• At Epcot, the evening fireworks show Illuminations has special Christmas additions. In addition, most nights Christmas carols are sung by massed choirs in the Candlelight Processional. Many of the countries in Epcot’s World Showcase have special Christmas events as part of Epcot’s Holidays Around the World program. Epcot’s special events usually begin the Friday after Thanksgiving
• At Disney’s Hollywood Studios, the Christmas celebration is the Osborne holiday lights in the Streets of America area. The evening opening ceremony is typically 6p.

NEW YEAR’S EVE 2015/2016 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

New Year’s Eve festivities and fireworks will happen on December 31, 2015 at Disney World’s Epcot, Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios theme parks, and also at the Magic Kingdom on December 30.

The Animal Kingdom has no special New Year’s Eve fireworks, but will–for the first time– be offering a “New Year’s Eve Street Parti” in Africa’s Harambe Market from 3:30p to 8:30p.

Hours may be extended, but here’s what’s currently scheduled:

• Epcot is scheduled to be open until 1a on New Year’s Eve; Disney’s Hollywood Studios until midnight for the general public, and 2a for Walt Disney World Resort hotel guests; and the Magic Kingdom until 2a
• The Magic Kingdom will have Wishes at 6.30p, and special New Year’s Eve fireworks at 11.50p
• Epcot will have its Illuminations fireworks show at 6p and 11.40p, plus DJs in various pavilions.
• Disney’s Hollywood Studios will have fireworks at midnight
• Note that alcohol is not available at the Magic Kingdom, but is available at Epcot and Disney’s Hollywood Studios

The Magic Kingdom will have the same fireworks at the same times on 12/30. This date will likely be a little less crowded than 12/31.

DECEMBER 2015 OPERATING HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Park operating hours vary by the day, and sometimes change without notice. It is rare for hours to be shorter than Disney has publicized, but Disney may lengthen them in response to unanticipated crowds.

The best way to keep up with operating hours is to check Disney’s official calendars, usually available six months in advance.

These calendars can be found by clicking the following links:

• Magic Kingdom Calendar
• Hollywood Studios Calendar
• Animal Kingdom Calendar
• Epcot Calendar

WEEK BY WEEK COMMENTS FOR DECEMBER 2015 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD BY ARRIVAL DATE

The week rankings that follow below are from 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, and are designed for first-time visitors who do not know whether or not they will return.

Click the image for a calendar view of 2015 weeks (when open, keep clicking to enlarge.)

• 11/28/2015  Low prices at values and deluxes, moderate prices in moderates. Low crowds. Crowd ranking=3.  Week ranking=1. Recommended week. Use the Basic December Itinerary, but swap Wednesday and Thursday
• 12/5/2015  Pop Warner Week. Low prices at values and deluxes, moderate prices in moderates. Low-plus crowds. Crowd ranking=4.  Week ranking=2. Recommended week. Use the Basic December Itinerary, but swap Wednesday and Thursday
• 12/12/2015  High prices at values and moderates, moderate-plus prices in deluxes. Low crowds. Crowd ranking=3.  Week ranking=3. Recommended week. Use the Basic December Itinerary, but swap Wednesday and Thursday
• 12/19/2015  Christmas week. Highest prices at values and moderates, higher prices in deluxes.   Highest crowds. Crowd ranking=11. Week ranking=45. Use the FastPass+ Higher Crowd Itinerary, but swap Tuesday and Wednesday in both the itinerary and its To-Do List
• 12/26/2015  Christmas week. Highest prices at values, moderates, and deluxes.   Highest crowds. Crowd ranking=11. Week ranking=47. Use the FastPass+ Higher Crowd Itinerary, but swap Tuesday and Wednesday in both the itinerary and its To-Do List

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2015 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2016 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2015 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2016 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2015 price seasons, see this
  • For projected 2016 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

Want a second opinion?  Then check out my book lol.

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OVERVIEW: NOVEMBER 2015 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews November 2015 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Mid-November has some of the best times of the year to visit Disney World, with cooler weather, low crowds, low prices, and fun special events.

The beginning of the month is not so good, with moderate crowds from Jersey Week.  Thanksgiving week, with high crowds and higher prices than the rest of the month, should be avoided.

NOVEMBER 2015 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

November has high, low and moderate crowd weeks.

On a crowd scale of 1-11, the week beginning 10/31 has a crowd rating of 5/moderate minus, the week beginning 11/7 3/low, the week beginning 11/14 2/low, and the week beginning 11/22 10/higher.

However, because of the Christmas Party and the Food and Wine Festival, you can face higher much waits if you go to the parks on the wrong days.  See this for how to avoid these crowds.

See this for more on 2015 crowds at Disney World.

NOVEMBER 2015 PRICES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

November 2015 prices begin 10% higher than the lowest of the year at the values, 8% higher at the moderates, and 10% higher at the deluxes.

Other than a bump over the Jersey Week (11/6 to 11/8) weekend, prices stay this level until November 21 at the values and moderates and November 24 at the deluxes, when they bump for Thanksgiving.  On November 28th, prices revert to the same as at the beginning of the month.

See this for more on 2015 resort hotel prices at Walt Disney World.

NOVEMBER 2015 DEALS AND DISCOUNTS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Deals are available for November 2015. Details are here.

NOVEMBER 2015 WEATHER AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Early November weather can be about as good as Orlando gets. Over the course of the month, lower and much more variable temps emerge.  Days can be perfect or quite cool.

Click the image, or go to Weather and When to Go to Disney World, for more on temperatures.

NOVEMBER 2015 SPECIAL EVENTS

Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party has its last show November 1..

The Epcot International Food and Wine Festival continues through November 16.

Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party kicks off November 8.

NOVEMBER 2015 OPERATING HOURS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Park operating hours vary by the day, and sometimes change without notice. It is rare for hours to be shorter than Disney has publicized, but Disney may lengthen them in response to unanticipated crowds.

The best way to keep up with operating hours is to check Disney’s official calendars, usually available six months in advance.

These calendars can be found by clicking the following links:

• Magic Kingdom Calendar
• Hollywood Studios Calendar
• Animal Kingdom Calendar
• Epcot Calendar

WEEK BY WEEK COMMENTS FOR NOVEMBER 2015 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD BY ARRIVAL DATE

The week rankings that follow below are from 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, and are designed for first-time visitors who do not know whether or not they will return.

Click the image for a calendar view of 2015 weeks (when open, keep clicking to enlarge.)

• 10/31/2015 Jersey Week. Low prices at values and deluxes, moderate prices in moderates. Moderate-minus crowds. Crowd ranking=5. Week ranking=15. Use the FastPass+ Lower Crowd Itinerary, but swap First Sunday and Wednesday in both the itinerary and its To-Do List
• 11/7/2015 Low prices at values and deluxes, moderate prices in moderates.   Low crowds. Crowd ranking=3. Week ranking=7. Recommended week.  Use the FastPass+ Lower Crowd Itinerary, but swap First Sunday and Wednesday in both the itinerary and its To-Do List
• 11/14/2015  Low prices at values and deluxes, moderate prices in moderates.  Lower crowds. Crowd ranking=2. Week ranking=4.  Recommended week. Use the FastPass+ Lower Crowd Itinerary, but swap First Sunday and Wednesday in both the itinerary and its To-Do List
• 11/21/2015  Thanksgiving week. High prices at values, moderate prices in moderates and deluxes.   Higher crowds. Crowd ranking=10. Week ranking=40. Use the FastPass+ Higher Crowd Itinerary, but swap First Sunday and Wednesday in both the itinerary and its To-Do List
• 11/28/2015  Low prices at values and deluxes, moderate prices in moderates. Low crowds. Crowd ranking=3.  Week ranking=1. Recommended week. Use the Basic December Itinerary, but swap Wednesday and Thursday in both the itinerary and its To-Do List

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2015 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2015 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2016 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For the 2015 Crowd Calendar, click here
  • For the 2016 Crowd Calendar, click here
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2015 price seasons, see this
  • For projected 2016 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

Want a second opinion?  Then check out my book lol.

Follow yourfirstvisit.net on Facebook or Google+ or Twitter or Pinterest!!