2016 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD
The chart lower on the page shows my forecasts for 2016 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.
Dates in it are the beginning of the week, and the forecast covers the recommended Saturday-Sunday 9 day stays.
(For 2017 crowds, see this, and for 2018 crowds, see this.)
Crowd levels are ranked by week from 1-11 in the following way:
1: Lowest of the year
2: Lower
3: Low
4: Low-plus
5: Moderate-minus
6: Moderate
7: Moderate-plus
8: High-minus
9: High
10: Higher
11: Highest
HOW TO INTERPRET THE 2016 DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR
Dates are the beginning of the week.
The “low crowd” weeks–those colored green, and rated 1-4–represent the only crowd levels a family visiting for the first time, and unsure if it will ever return, should consider.
However, lower crowds, especially lowest crowds, do not always mean a better week. The lowest weeks are often best avoided by first timers who may never return because they are in the hurricane or the ride closure seasons.
The “moderate crowd” weeks–those in black and rated 5-7–have crowd levels I would not particularly recommend to first time visitors, though the crowds can be managed with careful planning and lots of early mornings. However, I’d go during such weeks myself with no hesitation, and think these levels are OK for returning visitors who don’t need to see everything and already know how to work Walt Disney World.
The “high crowd” weeks–those in red, rated 8-11–should be avoided by everyone. They aren’t, which is why they are so high.
MY DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR GOES UP TO “11”
The influence of the Unofficial Guide and TouringPlans.com has led almost all Disney World crowd calendars to top out at 10.
However, I’ve always thought that the really nastiest weeks of the year deserved an 11 for emphasis.
So, in homage to Spinal Tap, I assigned 11 to “highest.”
Follow yourfirstvisit.net on Facebook or Google+ or Twitter or Pinterest!!
Learned a lot from your site. We are planning our next trip for Oct 9-13 or Dec. 17-21(free dining). I acutally have both trip booked because I can’t decide when to go. We are not first timers and have visited in Oct and Dec in the past. I really just want to go at the least crowded time. What would you suggest?
Reply
Hey JH, October will be better.
Reply
will be arriving on Sunday Oct 16 2016 ( will go to park on Sunday) through Saturday Oct 22 no park on Saturday. Which parks to avoid on what days . Also want to go to Mickeys no so scarey Holloween.
Reply
Hi George,
10/16 avoid HS and EPcot
10/17 avoid AK and MK
10/18 avoid Epcot
10/19 avoid MK
10/20 avoid Epcot
10/21 avoid HS and Epcot
Depending on when you arrive, Sunday might be a good Halloween day as you can enter the park at 4p. Avoid Friday.
Reply
We are looking to go for the first time 11/26/16-12/1/16. Would these dates be good for a first time visit with a 4 year old. We picked it for the meal plan deal and cooler temps. Thanks for your advice!
Reply
Ashley, yes! See this.
Reply
Thank you Dave, your article definitely put my mind at ease! Thanks for all your great info!
Reply
🙂 Mandi
Reply
Hi! Just came across this site and am feel so thankful. I really need some help! Only the second time we will be at Disney – last was 7 years ago! We are going to disney with our family of 6 (kids 10, 6, 4, almost 2) and 1 set of grandparents Friday, November 25 – Friday December 2, 2016. We are not staying off the property are renting a minivan. We are trying to figure out how many days worth of ticket to get and do hopper passes? We want to do the Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party, I think…if you recommend it! We want to do MK, Epcot, AK, and Hollywood Studios. Anything else you recommend we do that week? What days to do what park??? We tried to book character dinners and all booked! So bummed. And tried to book a sit down dinner somewhere – all booked!!! Help!! We really appreciate the feedback tremendously 🙂 Hope to hear from you soon.
Bryn
Also, should the weather be good end of november in florida?
Reply
Bryn, take a look at this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2016/06/02/basic-2016-december-fastpass-itinerary/
Reply
Hi Dave, thank you for sharing your calendar and tips. We have booked Oct. 15-21, but have found out that all of the moderate resorts are fully booked and I am getting concerned about the crowds after talking to a Disney rep. We went the same week in 2012, have you seen crowds increase a lot during this time with so many schools having longer fall breaks?
Reply
Mandi, with an average 90% occupancy every quarter these days it’s quite common for the resorts to be booked up, especially if you are looking for a long trip or a trip that includes a weekend or Columbus Day.
Because of this baseline of very high occupancy, resort occupancy is not a crowd calendar–see this
Reply
Hi! We are visiting this December 2016, from 12/11-12/18 (mainly because I found this calendar when planning and decided it was a better time than November!) I noticed you don’t do calendars for which parks to avoid which days- do you have any idea of which parks to steer away from on the days we will be there? Have ADRs to make in 10 days and I’m hoping to coordinate with which park we’ll be at, instead of planning around our meals and getting caught in busier parks! Thanks!
Reply
Amanda, first take a look at this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2016/06/02/basic-2016-december-fastpass-itinerary/ It’s not an exact fit, but I’ll be publishing shortly a 7 night variant with a Sunday arrival.
Otherwise,
12/11 avoid HS
12/12 avoid MK and AK
12/13 avoid Epcot
12/14 avoid MK
12/15 avoid Epcot
12/16 avoid HS
12/17 avoid MK and AK
12/18 avoid HS
Reply
Hi Dave! Quick question, what is your reasoning behind suggesting I avoid MK and AK on 12/12/2016?
I’m flying in on 12/10/2016 with my parents, my 4yo son, my brother and SIL and their 2yo and 6mo sons. We’ve never been during the Christmas holidays and I’m hoping the crowds won’t be too bad! We fly home on the afternoon of 12/15/2016 and are staying at Port Orleans RS
Reply
I’ll add that we have MVMCP tickets for the night of 12/13/2016 and planned on spending morning-midday in AK before heading to MK for the party. Do you suggest this?
Reply
Caroline, Mondays are very popular days at MK to start with, and that particular Monday offers a later close and the full evening entertainment, but is sandwiched between two party days with early closes and no evening stuff (except for those attending the party). So it will be mobbed.
Reply
Hi, we’re thinking of going sometime between end of Sept amd beg of Dec. Looking for low crowds and warm weather…was thinking first week of December but it seems pop Warners championships will be going on. Should I avoid this time? Is it warm enough in Dec to swim and do waterparks? Thank you!
Reply
Danielle, Pop Warner has little impact. You can’t count on water park weather after October (it’s likely–but you can’t count on it), so I’d aim for the second half of October. See also this
Reply
Hi Dave,
We are taking our kids on a trip over their winter break (December 29 – Jan 3). I know, it is going to be a zoo. I figure as long as we all understand that going in we will be okay.
Any advice on which parks to avoid while we are there? I appreciate your help.
Reply
Not til Disney releases the December and January calendars, Laura–December should be out in a week or so, and January a month after that, so check back in mid-June.
Reply
Hi Dave- our second trip to Disney is in a few weeks. We have all of our fast passes and reservations made. Hoping your input can confirm our park choices for each day. Can you tell me which parks to avoid on each day? We arrive 5/15 and leave 5/22. Thanks!!! Wish we were there now- been checking wait times all day on the app and they have been minimal all day long!!!
Reply
Hi Kelly!
5/15 avoid HS
5/16 avoid AK and MK
5/17 avoid Epcot
5/18 avoid MK
5/19 avoid Epcot
5/20 avoid HS and MK
5/21 avoid MK and AK
5/22 avoid HS
Reply
Hello Dave! First I want to thank you for all of your time and work you put into keeping all of us updated! Kudos to you! I appreciate it so much! I have tried to research this so I wouldn’t have to ask but I NEED TO ASK 🙂 We currently are booked for 10/1 – 10/7. Is there that big of a difference between that week and the week of 9/25 – 10/1 crowd and weather?? Thank you!
Reply
Hi oHIo Girl and thanks! You will see higher crowds in the second half of the October week from Columbus Day-centered fall breaks…
Reply
Hi Dave, what a fantastic site! My partner and I will be in Orlando from 10/2/16-10/11/16 and will have a 5 day pass for Disney parks. What days would be the best to go to which parks. We will be doing 2 days at universal also. We will be staying on Disney property so will have access to emh… please help, it is so overwhelming yet so exciting at the same time. Thanks
Reply
Hi Emily! You have lots of options, so see Josh’s commentary here and pick your days from within it: http://www.easywdw.com/easy/calendars/october-2016-walt-disney-world-crowd-calendar/
Reply
Thanks so much 🙂
Reply
Thanks so much, Dave!
Reply
Hi Dave! Two questions: How’s May 8-13 looking for crowds? Still moderate-minus? Also, if we want to ride Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, but don’t have a FP+, would you recommend first thing in the morning or last thing at night? Thanks!
Reply
AG< yes and morning!
Reply
also looking at crowd calendars I was thinking Hollywood Studios that Saturday and MK again on Sunday until about 3pm. thanks
Reply
Concur, Tammy!
Reply
I need your opinion on something! In order to take advantage of free dining we had to move our planned dates around. We will be in the parks Thursday 9/22 through the afternoon of Sunday 9/25. We will have to do the Halloween party on Friday September 23rd. I am trying to decide which days to attend Epcot and which day to attend MK. I could do Epcot on Thursday the 22nd. I see that it has morning EMH. We would not be doing any of the Food and Wine and hope to be able to leave the park by the afternoon. Or we could do MK that day and do Epcot on Friday the 23rd before we go to the Halloween party that night. Most crowd calendars have Epcot in red both of those days but it is the only 2 days that we could do it. Which day do you suggest doing Epcot and which day would you do MK? Thanks!
Reply
I’d do Epcot Friday. The main impact of F&W is in evening, and you’ll miss that from the party…
Reply
Hi there; please HELP! I have been planing for my very first trip to Disney with the family and it seems I went and picked a bad week, between the not-so-scary-halloween party, emh and columbus day weekend i’m stumped as to what to do for magic kingdom specifically. Once i get that part settled i’ll fill in the rest. So here goes my available days to do MK and I need to pick 2
Sunday October 9 (columbus day weekend open 9-10pm)
Wednesday October 12 (evening emh 9-10 with wishes, sandwiched between parties)
Saturday October 15 (weekend with wishes)
Wednesday October 19(evening emh no wishes, sandwiched between parties)
I am also able to do any party date if its a better option but I would prefer to do wishes(at the least once) Thanks for your help
Reply
Katherine, as you note, all lousy choices. With an early start and FastPass+ you can make any work, but I’d urge the later options, further away from Columbus Day. Pick the 15th or 19th, and also a party day.
Reply
Hi,
Thinking of going 11/15-11/21, worried crowds will be busy. On sat or sun should we do something other than parks during day and Mickey’s holiday party at night?
Thank you
Reply
Susie, crowds will being to build Saturday and be serious Sunday. By avoiding EMH parks, and with an early arrival and FastPass+ though you’ll do fine.
Reply
Hey I love your website! I am trying to determine when to take my kids in September. We will be doing Magic Kingdom for 2 days (one of those being the Halloween Party), one day Hollywood Studios, and one day Epcot. should I have my park days be Thursday 9/22 thru Sunday 9/25 or SAturday 9/24 thru Tuesday 9/27? I’m looking for lowest crowds if possible. These dates would put us choosing between the Friday night or Sunday night Halloween party. Thanks!
Reply
Tammy, there’s not much difference. Epcot can be mobbed on weekends during the Food & Wine festival, so your second dates would give you a better day at Epcot (Monday). The party tends to be a little less crowded on school nights like Sunday, as fewer locals come.
Reply
I am hoping to go to wdw either the week before thanksgiving (my youngest would be free-her bday is nov 21) or end of February (to get over the Midwest winter). Which of these times would you recommend?
Reply
Emily, so long as your Feb arrival is the 25th or later, both are great dates. I’d go with the November dates–some fun Xmas stuff, free kid!
Reply