By the co-author of The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2019, the best-reviewed Disney World guidebook series ever.

Available on Amazon here.





Chance of Hurricane Affecting Florida during Visit by Arrival Date

By Dave Shute

Weather    Temps    Rain    Hurricanes    Tornadoes    Winter Highs     Winter Pool Days

THE HURRICANE SEASON AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The thumbnail (click to open) illuminates the chance of a cyclonic storm affecting any part of Florida during any part of a 9 day visit to Walt Disney World.

It’s by arrival date, and is based on 30 years of data.

It helps illuminate the Disney World (and Florida) hurricane season more specifically than general statements like “The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.”

The takeaway is that a 9 day Walt Disney World vacation has the biggest chance of being affected for arrival dates in late August through early October.

Ninety percent of activity is from August through October; 50% between August 20th and October 10th; and the peak of the storm season is September 10th.

It is unusual for a Disney vacation to be ruined by a cyclonic storm–but it happens.

DATA SOURCES

All this site’s weather pages except for the material on cyclonic storms and on tornadoes are based on 20 years of data from the National Weather Service ending in December 2006. The cyclonic storm material is based on 30 years of data from Wikipedia. The tornado material is from NOAA/NCDC and goes from 1950 through October 2009.

ORLANDO WEATHER LINKS

 

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118 comments

1 Kristie { 07.27.16 at 12:57 pm }

Hi Dave, I’m planning to go to Orlando and Bahamas from 11/7/16-11/16/16. Is it still hurricane season? And, will there be short thunderstorms daily? I can change dates anytime for now, before I book the flight. Thanks 🙂

2 Dave { 07.28.16 at 8:12 am }

Kristie, the official hurricane seasons lasts through 11/30, but the peak ends in early October. Afternoon thunderstorms can happen any day, but are much more common in the summer.

3 Catina { 08.03.16 at 10:41 am }

Hi Dave,
My son is headed to college Florida. My husband and I will be taking him to get settled into his dorm and plan on stopping at WDW while we are there. Our travel dates are 8/17 through 8/23. Can you tell me how the weather might be for 2016?

4 Dave { 08.03.16 at 12:03 pm }

Catina, it’s too early for a specific forecast for then, Expect hot, humid, and afternoon thunderstorms.

5 Tracy Hardy { 08.11.16 at 7:24 pm }

We will be coming on 8-16-2016 through 8-21-16, other than rain will the hurricane effect Orlando.

6 Dave { 08.12.16 at 11:57 am }

Tracy, there’s nothing in the forecast right now.

7 Honeymoon Destinations During Hurricane Season - World Travels { 08.20.16 at 12:49 am }

[…] Chance of hurricane affecting florida during visit by. The hurricane season at walt disney world. The thumbnail (click to open) illuminates the chance of a cyclonic storm affecting any part of florida during any. […]

8 Tom { 08.31.16 at 4:42 pm }

Booked a vacation to Disney and universal the last week of September. We also planned to visit cocoa Beach. Are the beaches closed during that time?

9 Dave { 09.02.16 at 8:21 am }

Tom, I’m sorry that I don’t track the beaches, but I believe they are open year-round

10 Ian { 02.22.17 at 11:35 am }

My wife and I are going to wdw nov 18 – Dec 2. What should crowds be like and what should the weather be like please?

11 Dave { 02.23.17 at 6:43 am }

Ian, see this–about 2016 but the patterns will be similar.

12 Lori { 03.01.17 at 11:54 am }

Hey Dave. Love your site. We are planning our second trip to WDW, our 1st visit was the week of Halloween in 2015 and it was great! Our original plans for our 2nd trip was set for April 22-30, but due to unavoidable circumstances we are having to reschedule our trip. My next avalible time to go would be Sept 2 – 10. Is this a time you would recommend for a second visit, or will I regret this time because of weather? Our only other option would be December 10th, I hate to wait that long though. Thanks for your help.

13 Dave { 03.04.17 at 9:58 am }

Lori, I would pick December, but you will face lower crowds and prices in Sept.

14 jane { 07.10.17 at 9:01 pm }

Hi, we are coming to Florida on July 25, 2017, until 8/1. Is there any forecast of hurricane that date?
Thannks

15 Dave { 07.11.17 at 7:30 am }

Jane, hurricane forecasts usually come out 3 or 4 days ahead of time. Take a lok at e.g. this then.

16 Tamara Hurtado { 07.16.17 at 11:43 am }

I have booked for September 16th through 23rd on Estero Island. What can i anticipate weather – wise?

17 Dave { 07.19.17 at 10:59 am }

Sorry, Tamara, I follow only Orlando weather.

18 Chasity Perry { 09.04.17 at 8:46 am }

Hello we book our vacation to Orlando Sept 11 to Sept 18 2017 for our anniversary what is our chances of our vacation getting ruined ..

19 Dave { 09.04.17 at 11:23 am }

Chasity, it’s too early to say, but if Irma does hit Orlando, the most likely worst outcome would be 1. a lot of rain, and 2. perhaps the parks closing for one day.

20 Andrea { 09.06.17 at 6:09 pm }

First WDW trip planned for the week of October 23 I know that it is hurricane season but what is the likelihood of the trip being ruined

21 Paloma { 09.07.17 at 9:38 am }

Same dates here! But the 25th of October. Hoping for the best ???

22 Dave { 09.08.17 at 9:27 am }

Andrea, highly unlikely. While the season continues through November, the peak ends by Columbus Day.

23 Karla Pimentel { 09.11.17 at 2:10 am }

Hi Dave! We have a WDW vacation booked for Sept 16 to Sept 23. It is very sad what hurricane Irma has been doing over the past few days, aNd I am affraid that our vacation would be ruined it for this hurricane. Based on your experience, what are the chances of our trip being ruined? Thank you, Dave!

24 Dave { 09.11.17 at 9:03 am }

Karla, you’ll be fine–I don’t think you’ll be able to tell Irma was even around…

25 Jennifer { 09.17.17 at 9:10 pm }

Hello,

I was reading your above comments on hurricane season. I know it goes till the end of November. We arrive on the 27th of November this year. Should we still be ok?

Jenn

26 Dave { 09.18.17 at 8:50 am }

Jennifer, it would be highly unusual for there to be a WDW impact after mid-October. Later storms, when they occur, tend to effect more the mid-atlantic and northeast states.

27 Jennifer { 09.18.17 at 8:38 pm }

Thank you so much for that piece of mind.

It just so happens I live on Long Island and don’t really recall there ever being a storm that late in the season up here.

28 Dave { 09.19.17 at 10:23 am }

Jennifer, they are very rare after early October. Sandy would be the example.

29 Ruth { 04.22.18 at 4:05 pm }

Hello Dave, I’m planing to go to Disney end of August you think it will affect my visit because of the hurricane season?

30 Jasmine { 05.24.18 at 11:33 pm }

We are leaving to Orlando on 5/25 to 6/1 for my sons make a wish trip the forecast is showing a high chance of a hurricane hitting I don’t know what to do I don’t want to put family in danger any input

31 Dave { 05.25.18 at 6:55 am }

Hi Jasmine, there’s no danger–just the risk of a lot of rain.

32 Ariana { 06.07.18 at 5:07 am }

Hello Dave, I am planning to go to Cape Coral During. We expect to leave during early July that or the middle of August. And I was wondering if we will be okay than and what the risk was of that visit being ruined by hurricane(s) hitting ?

33 Dave { 06.07.18 at 10:18 am }

Ariana, just keep your eyes out for the weather as your trip gets close, and check out the cancellation and/or hurricane policies of whatever you have booked. It’s rare for a trip to be ruined, so the best move is just to know what your details are.

34 Ariana { 06.07.18 at 11:13 am }

Thank you so much.

This was very helpful and I really appreciate, the piece of mind. I will do exactly that.

I live in Newfoundland ( Canada ) so we do not get many hurricanes, I just wanna be safe than never. Especially with my family coming along with me.

35 Candela { 06.11.18 at 3:40 pm }

Hello Dave, nice to meet you. I’m from Argentina and I have a planned vacation with my husband and son from 07/14 to 07/20 in WDW. Should I be worried?? We are not used to that kind of weather here (hurricanes), and although I’ve been to USA several times, I never did it at that time of the year. I’ll really appreciate your comments.

36 Dave { 06.12.18 at 9:15 am }

Hi Candela, and thanks for writing!!

If a hurricane impacts Disney World (which is rare) during your dates (which is also rare–late August through early October is more risky) the most likely consequence would be heavy rains and winds. It also may disrupt flights–yielding cancellations and/or delays. The most important thing for you is to fully understand the cancellation policies of whatever you are pre-paying for, whether or not they have an additional hurricane policy, decide whether or not to add travel insurance, and then once your dates get close to keep track of the weather!

37 Barry { 07.04.18 at 1:41 pm }

Hi Dave,
For the very interesting graph of wdw hurricane likelihood, since the slope is pretty steep for October, could you give me higher resolution for that month, perhaps what the percentage looks like for trips starting 10/1 , 10/8, 10/15, 10/22, 10/29? thanx!

38 Dave { 07.05.18 at 6:32 am }

Hey Barry, great question. Unfortunately, the data for this chart disappeared several laptops ago, so I can’t give you a great answer other than that chances of any of Florida being affected by a cyclonic storm drop precipitously after the first third of October.

39 Susanne D { 09.10.18 at 2:03 pm }

Dear Dave, we are planning on driving down to Florida this week, from Canada, to visit Disney as we were offered a condo in mid-September. Now I see why!!!! I have been reading the weather reports, but should we definitely stay away from South Carolina? And how intense will the rain/winds be near and around Orlando for next week? I had no idea you had such a site. Thank you for any advice you can give. S

40 Dave { 09.10.18 at 2:59 pm }

Hiya Susanne it depends a bit on your travel days–and the forecast, of course!–but what I would do is find my way to I-75 and make my way south from there. This is easy from some parts of Ontario and west of it. If you are starting way east e.g. in Montreal or Quebec or even more east, you can head southwest on I-81 to get to 75 in Knoxville.

41 edward { 09.10.18 at 7:33 pm }

Hi Dave, Glad I found this awesome site. Flying in to Orlando on 9-16 staying til 9-27 . What are your thoughts on coming or not? Things are looking questionable at the moment. Your input will be our deciding factor. Thanks

42 Dave { 09.11.18 at 7:32 am }

Thanks Edward! You should be fine, unless the forecasts change radically…

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