Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

OVERVIEW: MAY 2016 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews May 2016 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Earlier May is a great time to visit Walt Disney World, with low crowds, moderate prices, and good weather.

Crowds build over the month, and the end of the month sees high crowds from Memorial Day, and the beginning of humid and rainy summer weather.
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OVERVIEW: THE BEST TIMES IN 2017 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

This site recommends arriving at Walt Disney World one of the first three Saturdays after Thanksgiving.

If you can’t go then, presented below are my rankings of the weeks of 2017 in order of best to worst times to visit Disney World.

These rankings are designed for first time visitors who do not know whether or not they will return.

For visitors on a return trip, less concerned about ride closures or the peak of the hurricane season, the later January, early February, and September weeks would be ranked much higher.

These week rankings are based on my 2017 Disney World Crowd Calendar and on the 2017 Walt Disney World price seasons.

Other factors are key as well–the Christmas season, ride closure season and hurricane season in particular.

(For 2018 rankings, see this, and for 2019 rankings, see this. For more how I build these rankings, see this.)

RECOMMENDED 2017 WEEKS, RANKED IN ORDER

The thirteen recommended weeks that follow are wonderful weeks to visit Walt Disney World in 2017.

Week number one has it all–lower crowds, lower prices and wonderful Christmas programs and decorations. The first Saturday of this week overlaps with Thanksgiving crowds, but the rest of it will be marvelous:

• 1: 11/25/17

Weeks 2 and 3 have many, but not all, of the strengths of week 1:

• 2: 12/9/17. A week as good as week 1 on crowds and holiday programs. Slightly more expensive, however, than weeks 1 or 3
• 3: 12/2/17. Largely a terrific week with low crowds, low prices and wonderful holiday programs. However, this is a week that, because of Pop Warner football demand for resort rooms, is rarely discounted beyond its already low prices. Those intending to stay at a value resort, Caribbean Beach or Coronado Springs should consider avoiding this week and target week 1 or 2 instead, as Pop Warner guests may make these resorts boisterous this week

Week 4 has lower prices and crowds, and offers in its first few days Disney World’s Halloween program

• 4: 10/28/17

Week 5 is a very strong week. It has low crowds and prices, and Disney World’s holiday program at the Magic Kingdom will be in place

• 5: 11/11/17

Weeks 6 is your best 2017 Spring Break bet, with low crowds and moderate prices

• 6: 3/4/17

Weeks 7 and 8 are similar to week 4 but projected at slightly higher crowds. They share great late autumn weather. These are near-tied, but are in calendar order as the better weather is earlier this time of year

• 7: 10/14/17
• 8: 10/21/17

Weeks 9 to 12 are all in the same 2017 post-Easter stretch, and share low crowds, moderate prices, and nice spring weather. They are in calendar order, as the weather is better earlier in this period

• 9: 4/22/17
• 10: 4/29/17
• 11: 5/6/17
• 12: 5/13/17

Week 13 is the second-best 2017 Spring Break week, with low crowds and moderate prices

• 13: 2/25/17

This completes the weeks in 2017 that are recommended.

2017 WEEKS I’M NOT SO KEEN ON

Weeks 14-20 all have moderate crowd levels, with different prices and weather. I don’t particularly recommend moderate-crowd weeks for first time visitors, but they are quite manageable, and I would go myself such weeks with no hesitation.

They are in order of least to most crowded, and within crowd groups are sorted by price.

• 14: 11/4/17. “Jersey Week”—teacher meetings in New Jersey, leading to a massive temporary immigration of New Jersey families to Orlando. Crowds moderate-minus, prices low to moderate, almost never with major discounts.
• 15: 5/20/17 Similar to week 12, slightly more heat and humidity and crowds.
• 16: 10/8/17. Columbus Day week, with higher crowds and prices than the great weeks (ranked 7, 8 and 4) that follow it
• 17: 8/5/17  Moderate-plus crowds as the summer season begins to fade away
• 18: 6/3/17.  Beginning of summer–similar crowds to week 17, but slightly higher prices in deluxes
• 19: 4/1/17. Moderate+ crowds and high prices. My draft of this material had this as a better week, but the late-arriving crowd facts ended up not supporting such a position. Moreover, crowds may be higher than my forecast.
• 20: 4/15/17. The week after Easter is usually quite bad, but the late Easter in 2016 has moderated the number of kids on break, especially after Easter Monday. However, crowds may be higher than my forecast.

Note: in May 2017 I changed the crowd forecast for the week of 12/16/17 to “moderate+.”  This would shift it into this group, with a ranking after 20 and before 21.

Weeks 21-28 have one thing in common: they occur during the peak of the hurricane season. Hurricanes are rare and even more rarely affect a Disney World vacation, but for first-timers who may never return, why not just avoid the risk? For returning visitors, though, the low-crowd weeks among this group can be wonderful times to visit.

They are ranked in order of first crowd levels, and within the same crowd level prices.

Weeks 21 and 22 have among the lowest crowds and lowest prices of the year.

• 21: 9/9/17
• 22: 9/16/17

Weeks 23 to 25 are similar, but with slightly higher crowds than 21 and 22–with 25 forecast to have slightly higher crowds than 23 and 24

• 23: 9/2/17
• 24: 9/23/17
• 25: 8/26/17

Week 26 is at the outer range of low crowds

• 26: 8/19/17

Weeks 27 and 28 are the only moderate-crowd weeks in this hurricane group

• 27: 9/30/17
• 28: 8/12/17

2017 WEEKS TO AVOID AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

There’s two groups of weeks to avoid:  high crowd weeks and weeks when rides are often closed.

The first group, ranked 29-45, should be avoided because of crowds ranging from high to unbelievable.

This group includes all of later June, July and early August (massive crowds). It also includes the busy March Spring Break weeks beginning 3/11/2017, and the holiday weeks—President’s Day week, the week before Easter, Thanksgiving week, and the weeks around Christmas.

Click the table for exact rankings within these lousy weeks.

The next group includes the January and early February weeks when rides are often closed for repair or refurbishment—weeks 46-52.

Some of these weeks have the lowest crowds and lowest prices of the year.

(But not all--click the table above.)

However, this is the peak time for ride closures at Walt Disney World, especially the January weeks.

If this may be your only family visit, why go when you know some of the best of Disney World will be closed?

If you must go during this period, avoid the first days of January (massive crowds), the Martin Luther King Day (1/14/17 arrival date) holiday weekend, and the week before the Pro Bowl (which is January 29th).

The Marathon Weekend (affecting arrival dates of 12/31/16 and 1/7/17) complicates the parks as well.

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2017 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The chart lower on the page shows my forecasts for 2017 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.

Dates in it are the beginning of the week, and the forecast covers the recommended Saturday-Sunday 9 day stays.

(For 2018 Disney World crowds, see this, and for 2019 crowds at Disney World, see this.) [Read more →]

2017 RESORT PRICE SEASONS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The material below shows resort price seasons at Walt Disney World at different times of the year in 2017.

(For 2018 Disney World resort prices, see this, and for 2019 Disney World resort prices, see this.)

Although this may change at the next ticket price increase, currently only one-day ticket prices vary over the course of the year–multi-day tickets do not, although they typically have an annual increase during the year. See this for more on ticket prices.

Resort prices, however, can be almost twice as high during some periods as they are at others.

In the material below, “X% Higher” means compared to the lowest prices of the year.

The image gives an overview of the year, with specifics in the lists that follow.

In addition to the details presented below, Disney ups prices even more during certain weekends and holidays–particularly over the Marathon weekend, Martin Luther King Day weekend, President’s Day weekend, Memorial Day weekend, Columbus Day weekend, and Veterans Day weekend.

2017 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: VALUE RESORTS

• 40-45% higher–the peak season–begins 1/1/2017
• Lowest of year–the value season—begins 1/2/17
• 40-45% higher–the peak season–begins 2/16/17
• 20-25% higher–the regular season-begins 2/26/17
• 40-45% higher–the peak season–begins 3/10/17
• 55-75% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/9/17
• 40-45% higher–the peak season–begins 4/21/17
• 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 4/23/17
• 30-45% higher–the summer season–begins 5/26/17
• 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 8/13/17
• 5-10% higher–the fall season–begins 8/25/17
• 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 9/17/17
• 5-10% higher–the fall season– begins 10/29/17
• 20-40% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/18/17
• 5-10% higher–the fall season—begins 11/25/17
• 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 12/10/17
• 40-45% higher–the peak season–begins 12/15/17
• 60-75% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/22/17

2017 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: DELUXE RESORTS

• 25-35% higher–the peak season–begins 1/1/17
• Lowest of year–the value season—begins 1/2/17
• 25-35% higher–the peak season–begins 2/16/17
• 15-20% higher–the regular season–begins 2/26/17
• 25-35% higher–the peak season–begins 3/10/17
• 35-55% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/9/17
• 25-35% higher–the peak season–begins 4/21/17
• 15-20% higher–the regular season–begins 4/23/17
• 10% higher–the summer season–begins 5/26/17
• 0-5% higher–near-lowest of year–the value season 2—begins 7/7/17
• Lowest of year–the value season—begins 8/25/17
• 5-20% higher–the regular season 2–begins 9/22/17
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 10/15/17
• 15-20% higher–the regular season–begins 11/3/17
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 11/13/17
• 20-25% higher during Thanksgiving begins 11/21/17
• 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 11/25/17
• 20% higher–the regular season–beings 12/10/17
• 25-35% higher–the peak season–begins 12/15/17
• 40-60% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/22/17

2017 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS: MODERATE RESORTS

• 20-25% higher–the peak season–begins 1/1/17
• Lowest of year–the value season—begins 1/2/17
• 20-25% higher–the peak season–begins 2/16/17
• 15-20% higher–the regular season-begins 2/26/17
• 20-25% higher–the peak season–begins 3/10/17
• 45-50% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/9/17
• 20-25% higher–the peak season–begins 4/21/17
• 15-20% higher–the regular season–begins 4/23/17
• 15-20% higher–the summer season–begins 5/26/17
• 15-20% higher–the regular season–begins 8/13/17
• 10-15% higher–the fall season–begins 8/25/17
• 15-20% higher–the regular season–begins 9/17/17
• 10-15% higher–the fall season–begins 10/29/17
• 20-25% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/18/17
• 10-15% higher–the fall season—begins 11/25/17
• 15-20% higher–the regular season–beings 12/10
• 20-25% higher–the peak season–begins 12/15/17
• 50-55% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/22/17

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OVERVIEW: APRIL 2016 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews April 2016 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Whether or not April is a good time to go is almost entirely a function of the timing of Easter and the patterning of spring breaks after it. 2016 combines an early Easter with relatively few April breaks (compared to March), so most of the month is recommended.
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Routinely around this time of year I get comments from people trying to book one of my recommended December weeks that say something like “all the Disney World hotels are booked, so how can these be lower-crowd weeks?”

The short answer I always give is that this happens every year, and that Disney hotel occupancy is not a crowd calendar.

Quarter to quarter, Disney’s average occupancy is between 80 and 90%–it’s been around 90% for three quarters in a row.

The difference between 80% and 100% occupancy is about 5100 more rooms filled per night—or, at an average of 3 people per room, about 15,000 more people.

Fifteen thousand more people divided among 4 theme parks, two water parks, Universal, Sea World, Disney Springs, days off, etc. just don’t much matter to a set of theme parks that have a base average of more than 140,000 visitors a day anyway.

(This is the same reason that the cheering competitions, runDisney events, etc., don’t much matter to park crowding. Fifteen thousand cheerleaders or runners and family members may seem like a lot to you…but translate into less than 10 percent more people on property.)

Here’s the longer answer.

WHY THE DISNEY HOTELS ARE NOT A CROWD CALENDAR

Crowds at Disney World don’t come from the Disney hotels, which are almost always close to full (my 80-90% occupancy point above). They come from hotels outside the parks.

On an average day in 2014, there were 141,000 people in one of the four Disney World theme parks. (Math applied to this.) You can convert those into required hotel rooms by making assumptions about

• People per room (e.g. 3) and
• Rooms occupied by those not in a Disney theme park that day: people in a hotel room for a Disney World vacation but taking a day off from the four Disney theme parks and instead going to a water park, Downtown Disney, Universal, taking a day at the pool, shopping, or skipping the parks on their arrival night)—I’ll use 25% as my assumption on this.

So divide the 141,000 people in the parks on an average day by three people per room and you get 47,000 required rooms; shift this by another 25% for the folk on a Disney-oriented vacation but not in a Disney park that day and you get 63,000 required rooms.

Disney World itself right now has “only” about 25,500 rooms available, and probably can’t hit much above 95% occupancy for any sustained period (at 95% occupancy rooms are booked 19 out of every 20 nights) except in the rarest of circumstances, because there aren’t enough one night stays to fill in the tiny gaps that exist between 95% and 100% occupancy.

At 90% occupancy (Disney has been running near this level for almost a year now) it can serve 23,000 of the 63,000 needed rooms—just a little more than a third.

Occupancy at the Disney hotels doesn’t flex up and down much with crowds. Rather, Disney runs its price seasons and its deals to hit a fairly high level of average occupancy year round. Hotels fill up in the highest-crowd times, but they also fill up during times when savvy Disney World visitors (the most likely to occupy a Disney space—especially DVC owners) know are great times to visit—like early December!!

In other words, the crowds don’t come from Disney World hotels. They don’t flex enough. Rather, they come from off-property folk. So full Disney World hotels don’t necessarily mean high crowds. (They can mean that—it’s just that they don’t necessarily do so.)

Want a real crowd calendar?  See this.

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