By the co-author of The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2018, from the best-reviewed Disney World guidebook series ever. Paperback available on Amazon here. Kindle version available on Amazon here.



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Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

Disney World 2019 Resort Price Seasons

2019 RESORT PRICE SEASONS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The material below shows my forecasts for resort price seasons at Walt Disney World at different times of the year in 2019.

It’s based on Disney World’s recent practices, with an especially sharp look at March and April 2014, because 2014 also saw a very late Easter–Easter was April 20 in 2014, and will be April 21 in 2019.

(For 2017 price seasons, see this, and for 2018 price seasons, see this.)

Although this may change at the next ticket price increase, currently only one-day ticket prices vary over the course of the year–multi-day tickets do not, although they typically have an annual increase during the year. See this for more on ticket prices.

Resort prices, however, can be almost twice as high during some periods as they are at others.

In the material below, “X% Higher” means compared to the lowest prices of the year.

In addition to the details listed below, Disney typically ups prices even more during certain weekends and holidays–particularly over the Martin Luther King Day weekend, President’s Day weekend, Memorial Day weekend, Columbus Day weekend, and Veterans Day weekend.

I will revise these forecasts as needed when Disney releases its actual 2019 prices, most likely in the summer of 2018.

Cars at Disney's Art of Animation Resort from yourfirstvisit.net

2019 DISNEY WORLD FORECAST PRICE SEASONS: VALUE RESORTS

  • 30-40% higher–the peak season–begins 1/1/2019
  • 15-25% higher–Marathon rates–begin 1/2/19
  • Lowest of year–the value season–begins 1/6/19
  • 20-25% higher–the regular season-begins 2/10/19
  • 30-40% higher–the peak season–begins 2/14/19
  • 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 2/24/19
  • 30-40% higher–the peak season–begins 3/9/19
  • 55-65% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/14/19
  • 30-40% higher–the peak season–begins 4/21/19
  • 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 4/28/19
  • 30-40% higher–the summer season–begins 5/24/19
  • 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 8/11/19
  • 5-10% higher–the fall season–begins 8/25/19
  • 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 9/15/19
  • 5-10% higher–the fall season– begins 10/27/19
  • 30-40% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/23/19
  • 5-10% higher–the fall seasonbegins 11/30/19
  • 20-25% higher–the regular season–begins 12/8/19
  • 30-40% higher–the peak season–begins 12/13/19
  • 60-70% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/20/19

Disney's Caribbean Beach Resort from yourfirstvisit.net

2019 DISNEY WORLD FORECAST PRICE SEASONS: MODERATE RESORTS

  • 20-25% higher–the peak season–begins 1/1/19
  • 15% higher–Marathon rates–begins 1/2/19
  • Lowest of year–the value seasonbegins 1/6/19
  • 15-20% higher–the regular season-begins 2/10/19
  • 20-25% higher–the peak season–begins 2/14/19
  • 15-20% higher–the regular season-begins 2/24/19
  • 20-25% higher–the peak season–begins 3/8/19
  • 30-45% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/14/19
  • 20-25% higher–the peak season–begins 4/21/19
  • 15-20% higher–the regular season–begins 4/28/19
  • 10-15% higher–the summer season–begins 5/24/19
  • 15-20% higher–the regular season–begins 8/11/19
  • 10-15% higher–the fall season–begins 8/25/19
  • 15-20% higher–the regular season–begins 9/15/19
  • 10-15% higher–the fall season–begins 10/27/19
  • 20-25% higher over Thanksgiving begins 11/23/19
  • 10-15% higher–the fall seasonbegins 11/30/19
  • 15-20% higher–the regular season–beings 12/8/19
  • 20-25% higher–the peak season–begins 12/13/19
  • 35-50% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/20/19

Disney's Polynesian Resort from yourfirstvisit.net

2019 DISNEY WORLD FORECAST PRICE SEASONS: DELUXE RESORTS

  • 20-40% higher–the peak season–begins 1/1/19
  • 15-20% higher–Marathon rates–begins 1/2/19
  • Lowest of year–the value season–begins 1/6/19
  • 10-20% higher–the regular season–begins 2/10/19
  • 20-40% higher–the peak season–begins 2/14/19
  • 10-20% higher–the regular season–begins 2/24/19
  • 20-40% higher–the peak season–begins 3/8/19
  • 30-50% higher–the Easter season–begins 4/14/19
  • 20-40% higher–the peak season–begins 4/21/19
  • 10-20% higher–the regular season–begins 4/28/19
  • 5-15% higher–the summer season–begins 5/24/19
  • 5-10% highernear-lowest of year–the value season 2–begins 7/7/19
  • Lowest of year–the value seasonbegins 8/23/19
  • 10-20% higher–the regular season 2–begins 9/20/19
  • 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 10/13/19
  • 10-20% higher–the regular season–begins 11/1/19
  • 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 11/11/19
  • 25-40% higher during Thanksgiving begins 11/26/19
  • 5-15% higher–the fall season–begins 11/30/19
  • 10-20% higher–the regular season–beings 12/8/19
  • 20-40% higher–the peak season–begins 12/13/19
  • 55-75% higher–the holiday season–begins 12/20/19

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September 17, 2017   No Comments

February 2018 at Walt Disney World

OVERVIEW: FEBRUARY 2018 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews February 2018 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Early February 2018 will have some of the lowest crowds and prices of the year, but also the risk of ride closures.

The end of the month brings slightly higher prices and crowds, but better weather and few closures.

In between–in 2018, the period from Thursday the 15th through Saturday the 24th–we will see high crowds and high prices.

[Read more →]

August 28, 2017   8 Comments

January 2018 at Walt Disney World

OVERVIEW: JANUARY 2018 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews January 2018 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Early January 2018 will be dominated by holiday crowds and higher prices, but after the 6th, most days will see low crowds and low prices–with upticks around the Martin Luther King Day three day holiday weekend, and possibly during the days before the Pro Bowl on January 28.

January is not recommended for first-time visitors who may never return, because of ride closures. For returning visitors–and first timers who know they can return–after the first week it’s usually a great time to visit, with low crowds and low prices.

[Read more →]

July 25, 2017   6 Comments

Disney World Summer Crowds in 2018

Every year I analyze summer break schedules for the upcoming school year, compare them to what I’d expected, and then don’t change my crowd forecasts for the upcoming summer, because breaks turned out about the way I thought they would, and nothing else is new.

Well, for 2018 breaks did turn out the way I thought they would–but something new emerged in the summer of 2016 that seems to be happening again in the summer of 2017. I thought long and hard about this new stuff, and about changing my crowd forecast for 2018…before deciding to leave the crowd forecast the same.

Here’s the story.

DISNEY WORLD 2018 SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds historically have been governed by two factors:

  • Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
  • The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in mid-August

Over the past summer and a half, however, it seems other factors have come into play.

Summer stand-by waits in all of 2016 and so far in 2017 (I write this in mid-July) have been lower–sometimes substantially lower–than we’ve been used to. While there’s no evidence from Disney that attendance is substantially down (in April-June 2016, Disney World attendance compared to 2015 “was down 4% …with most of that decline due to the adverse impact of the shift in the Easter holiday period“; in July-September 2016 compared to 2015 , there were “increases in attendance…on a comparable fiscal period basis“), the feel of the parks in the summer–especially Epcot, Hollywood Studios, and the Animal Kingdom outside of Pandora–is much more comfortable than in years past.

I can’t explain the changed experience.  I have theories, mostly about the effects of Disney’s strategic re-pricing of tickets to make the higher-demand periods like summer less attractive, particularly in the pricing of one day tickets and in Florida resident annual passes with summer block-out dates–distinctions that launched between the 2015 and 2016 summer seasons, so the timing is right.

But this is just speculation, and does not much account for other things we’ve observed in the parks this summer–lower numbers of people in the parks and more easily available FastPass+. My co-author Josh has written on all three points multiple times this summer on easyWDW.com–see this for an example.

So to make a long story short, I don’t know what is going on, nor why it is going on.  Because I don’t, I don’t know if it will happen again next summer.  So I’m not going to re-forecast 2018 summer crowds as “moderate” rather than “high.”  But I also would not argue with someone else who in fact did make such a forecast change…

So if you go in the summer of 2018, you might have a much better crowd and wait experience than  I am predicting.  You will, however, still be in Florida in the summer–and I can’t possibly recommend that…

So…back to the other two drivers of summer crowds–school breaks and the peak of the hurricane season.

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the week that includes the 4th of July the busiest week.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June can start well, and then build to high crowd levels–although in 2017 the beginning of June–before blockout dates kicked in, and right after Pandora opened–was the busiest part of the month.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go as early in June or as late in August as their schedules permit. [Read more →]

July 14, 2017   2 Comments

Disney World Spring Break Crowds in 2018

DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS IN 2018

Walt Disney World Spring Break crowds are typically governed by two and a quarter factors:

  • Public school Spring Break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter but vary more than you might think
  • The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, and
  • The quarter factor, the date of President’s day.  Later President’s Days (which can range from February 15 to February 21) tend to make the first part of March better

An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter can spread the first two factors out, yielding some good early March and early April weeks.

Easter 2018, on April 1, is early in its possible range. President’s Day 2018, is late, on February 19. As a result, my 2018 crowd calendar shows (mostly) bad March crowds but (mostly) good April crowds.

More specifically, 2018 Spring Break crowds at Walt Disney World will be

  • Bad Presidents Day Week
  • Fine the weeks beginning February 24th and March 3rd
  • Very bad the week beginning March 10th
  • Bad the week beginning March 17
  • Very bad the weeks beginning March 24 and March 31
  • Fine April 7 and later.

2018 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Although more and more school districts are moving away from an Easter-centered Spring Break, the plurality of kids still have the weeks before Easter or following Easter off.

As a result, the single biggest factor determining better and worse Spring Break weeks at Walt Disney World is the date of Easter–which can range from March 22 to April 25.

A later Easter has a couple of different effects: first, it spreads out the dates of breaks for school districts that don’t frame their breaks around Easter, and second, if particularly late, will push districts that typically take the week after Easter off into the week before Easter instead, to keep from compressing their May academic calendars.  

An earlier Easter has the opposite effects.  Districts that traditionally try to take the week after Easter off will be able to do so, and districts that don’t base their calendars on Easter will be largely compressed into a couple of March weeks.

The date of President’s Day–which can range from February 15 to February 21–also has an effect. Because many northeastern districts both have a spring break and also take the week of President’s Day off, the later President’s Day is, the better early March will be–as parents avoid taking their kids out of school the weeks after a long President’s Day break.

The effect of the various dates in 2018 is to compress most school spring breaks into just four weeks beginning March 10 and continuing until the end of the week beginning March 31.

ACTUAL 2018 SPRING BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including 280 of the largest relevant US public school districts. 15.3 million kids–about a third of US school kids–are in the database, and they are weighted based on propensity to go to Disney World.

(For how the database is built, see the this. Weekends are in black, except Easter, in red. Holidays (Mardi Gras and President’s Day) are also in red. Click the image to enlarge it.)

My 2018 Disney World crowd calendar shows this:

  • The week beginning February 10, 2018 has a minor bump early from the small number of kids with Mardi Gras off, and a larger bump later as long weekends for Presidents Day begin Thursday February 15. Overall I give it a 5/moderate-minus rating–better earlier, worse later
  • Presidents Day week, the week beginning 2/17, has high crowds through Tuesday and pretty high crowds the rest of the week. Overall it gets a crowd ranking of 8/high-minus, worse earlier in the week and better later
  • The weeks beginning 2/24 and 3/3 have hardly any kids on break and get crowd ratings of 4 (low plus) for the week of the 24th and 3/low for the week of the 3rd
  • The week beginning March 10 both has a ton of kids on break (thanks, Texas!) and is also attractive to snowbirds. It gets a 10/higher crowd rating.
  • The week beginning 3/17 has fewer kids on break than the weeks that surround it, but is still attractive to snowbirds. I’m giving it a rating of 8/high-minus crowds.
  • The week beginning 3/24 is the week before Easter and will be a zoo, as it usually is, and gets a crowd rating of 11/highest.
  • The week after Easter (beginning 3/31/18) has even more kids on break in 2018 than the week before and also gets a crowd rating of 11/highest.
  • The week beginning April 7, 2018, will be much better than I had thought. I’m now giving it a crowd rating of 5/moderate-minus. If I am wrong–it happens–this week will be better than I am forecasting
  • The rest of April will be just fine.

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July 10, 2017   13 Comments

End of Summer 2017 Crowds at Walt Disney World

This site’s Disney World crowd calendars always show crowds dropping off in later August.

For example, in 2017, crowd rankings go from 8/high-minus at the end of July/beginning of August down to 2/lower in early September.

This page both explain how that comes about and also reviews how the site’s crowd calendars are built.

END OF SUMMER 2017 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The highest-crowd periods at Walt Disney World all have one thing in common: they are convenient times for parents to take their kids to Orlando. That is, they are times that kids are out of school and that parents traditionally can take off of work.

What’s not so clear until you do the numbers is that actual school vacation dates are much more varied than you’d think.  And there’s no good source you can go to that explains what all these varied dates are.

So usually every year about this time one of my nieces goes to more hundreds of school district websites and captures all the key vacation dates for the upcoming academic year. This year all of my nieces are distracted by babies, so I did half this data collection myself.

(This time of year because you’d be surprised many districts don’t put their calendars up for the upcoming year until June, even late June–looking at you, Michigan.)

This year I collected data on 280 school districts with 15.3 million kids–about a third of the US school-age population. These include the 100 largest school districts in the U.S., plus 180 more of the next largest school districts mostly in the more highly-populated states east of the Mississippi–that is, the states from which in particular Walt Disney World draws its visitors.

I then create a database that shows based on district enrollment every kid who is off on every date, and weight each district based on that district’s state’s proportion of total US visits to this website (because Disney won’t tell me actual visitation by state!). See the image above for a screenshot example.

Finally, I calculate percentage of total weighted kids on break by date and use that to inform the crowd calendars.

Above are the results of this for when kids go back to school in 2017.

So you can see that

  • Kids don’t start going back to school in real numbers until Tuesday 8/8
  • More than a third are back in school by 8/17
  • About half  are back in school by Friday 8/25 and
  • Almost 70% are back in school before Labor Day (noted in red)

In 2017, pretty much all kids are back in school by the Friday after Labor Day.

Moreover, vacation patterns typically don’t have people returning from their vacation the night before school begins, so the effect of these back-to-school dates is offset into earlier August by around a week.

Thus, in the 2017 crowd calendar, the week of 7/29 is rated 8/high-minus crowds, the week of 8/5 7/moderate-plus crowds, the week of 8/12 6/moderate crowds, the week of 8/19 4/low-plus crowds, and the week of 8/26 3/low crowds.
The 2017 easy Guide

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July 9, 2017   No Comments