Category — Disney World Crowds

2016 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The chart lower on the page shows my forecasts for 2016 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.

Dates in it are the beginning of the week, and the forecast covers the recommended Saturday-Sunday 9 day stays.

(For 2017 crowds, see this, and for 2018 crowds, see this.)

Crowd levels are ranked by week from 1-11 in the following way:

1: Lowest of the year

2: Lower

3: Low

4: Low-plus

5: Moderate-minus

6: Moderate

7: Moderate-plus

8: High-minus

9: High

10: Higher

11: Highest

HOW TO INTERPRET THE 2016 DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR

Dates are the beginning of the week.

The “low crowd” weeks–those colored green, and rated 1-4–represent the only crowd levels a family visiting for the first time, and unsure if it will ever return, should consider.

However, lower crowds, especially lowest crowds, do not always mean a better week. The lowest weeks are often best avoided by first timers who may never return because they are in the hurricane or the ride closure seasons.

The “moderate crowd” weeks–those in black and rated 5-7–have crowd levels I would not particularly recommend to first time visitors, though the crowds can be managed with careful planning and lots of early mornings. However, I’d go during such weeks myself with no hesitation, and think these levels are OK for returning visitors who don’t need to see everything and already know how to work Walt Disney World.

The “high crowd” weeks–those in red, rated 8-11–should be avoided by everyone. They aren’t, which is why they are so high.

MY DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR GOES UP TO “11”

The influence of the Unofficial Guide  and TouringPlans.com has led almost all Disney World crowd calendars to top out at 10.

However, I’ve always thought that the really nastiest weeks of the year deserved an 11 for emphasis.

So, in homage to Spinal Tap, I assigned 11 to “highest.”

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Every year I publish in the fall a draft Disney World crowd calendar for the year starting 15ish months from then.

I then update it in the next summer based on analysis of US school calendars–which are more varied than you’d think, and also come out in many cases a lot later than you’d think.

I’ve finished this year’s school calendar analyses–see this for an example–and have now published the resulting slightly modified 2015 Walt Disney World crowd calendar.

When I worked on it last year, 2015 looked like a pretty straightforward year to forecast–no late Easter, no World Cup affecting the summer. And the results of the schoolkid analysis bear this up. Only four weeks had their crowd ratings change, and none changed enough to shift categories–that is, none shifted from “low” to “moderate,” or from “moderate” to “high.”

You can find the 2015 Disney World Crowd Calendar–final except for typos (less common in my math than my writing, thank God) or unexpected changes–right here.

Based on it and the 2015 price seasons that came out last week, I’ll next be turning to the 2015 Week Rankings, and should have a revised version of them out soon!

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DISNEY WORLD 2015 SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds are governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in later August

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the weeks shaped by 4th of July travel the busiest weeks.

Later July is also the traditional South American winter break.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June can start well but then build quickly to high crowd levels.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Summer school calendars have been evolving to earlier August starts and as a result earlier June releases.  This has made early June less good, and mid-late August, better, than in prior years. My 2015 forecasts reflect this.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go as early in June or as late in August as their schedules permit.

2015 PUBLIC SCHOOL SUMMER BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

The beginnings of summer breaks vary more than most people think.

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including 165 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

2015 school breaks are very similar to 2014 school breaks, and there’s no World Cup to depress early summer crowds as there was in 2014.

So in the absence of later school end dates from a renewed polar vortex,  we can expect moderate crowds in early June, building to high levels by the beginning of July, staying high in July, and and beginning to drop again in mid-August.

In 2015 25% of kids are out by the beginning of June; the proportion builds over the rest of the month, with 75% out by June 17 and essentially all kids off by June 27, 2015.

Few families plan their vacation for their first day out of school, so there’s a lag in the effect of these dates on summer crowds that I can’t precisely quantify.

But the upshot is I rate crowds the week beginning May 30 as 7/moderate-plus, June 6 as 8/high-minus, June 13 and 20 as 9/high, and June 27 as 10/higher.  The week of July 4 is rated 11/highest, and the rest of July 9/high. 

Because of the variation noted above in when people do go vs. can go, the weeks of June 6 and 13 may be a little better than I’m rating them, but my data sets won’t let me draw that conclusion.

THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON AND DISNEY WORLD 2014 SUMMER CROWDS

The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November.

It peaks, however, from later August to early October.

(Click the chart; see also Weather and When to Go to Walt Disney World.)

As a result, August crowds at Walt Disney World are affected not only by the end dates of summer breaks, but also by savvy travelers avoiding this potential weather.

Hurricanes rarely impact a Disney World vacation…but savvy travelers with choices in when they can go commonly avoid this period. (Disney knows this of course, and both drops prices and commonly offers free dining during this period to change the value and risk equation.)

As a result, my crowd rankings in August start high then drop over the month. The week of 8/1/15 is rated as 8/high-minus; 8/8 is rated 7/moderate-plus, and 8/15 as 6/moderate.  By 8/22/15 (my birthday!) almost all kids are back in school, and the peak of the hurricane season is clearly in place, so crowd rankings drop to 4/low-plus.

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DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL 2015

Walt Disney World Spring Break crowds are governed by two and a quarter factors:

• Public school Spring Break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter but vary more than you might think
• The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, and
• The quarter factor, the date of President’s day.  Later President’s Days (which can range from February 15 to February 21) tend to make the first part of March better

An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter spreads the first two factors out, yielding some good early March and early April weeks.

Easter 2015, on April 5, is in the middle of its possible range. President’s Day 2015, on February 16th, both is early, and by a quirk of the calendar, is the same week as Mardi Gras–which some southern schools get off as well.

As a result, 2015 Spring Break crowds at Walt Disney World will be

• Horrible Presidents Day Week
• Fine the last week of February and the first week of March,
• Very rough the weeks beginning March 7, 14, and 21
• Horrible the week before Easter–the week beginning March 28
• Really horrible the week after Easter, from April 4 through 11, as more schools than usual are off this week in 2015
• ..and back to fine after April 11

2015 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Although more and more school districts are moving away from an Easter-centered Spring Break, the plurality of kids still have the weeks before Easter or following Easter off.

As a result, the single biggest factor determining better and worse Spring Break weeks at Walt Disney World is the date of Easter–which can range from March 22 to April 25.

A later Easter has a couple of different effects: first, it spreads out the dates of breaks for school districts that don’t frame their breaks around Easter, and second, if particularly late, will push districts that typically take the week after Easter off into the week before Easter instead, to keep from compressing their May academic calendars.  

An earlier Easter has the opposite effects.  Districts that traditionally try to take the week after Easter off will be able to do so, and districts that don’t base their calendars on Easter will be largely compressed into a couple of March weeks.

The date of President’s Day–which can range from February 15 to February 21–also has an effect. Because many districts both have a spring break and also take the week of  President’s Day off, the later President’s Day is, the better early March will be–as parents avoid taking their kids out of school the weeks after a long President’s Day break.

The effect of the various dates in 2015 is to put most 2015 school spring breaks into five consecutive weeks: those beginning March 7, March 14, March 21, March 28 and April 4.

ACTUAL 2015 SPRING BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 165 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

(For how the database is built, see this. Weekends are in black, except Easter, in red. Click the image to enlarge it.)

President’s Day week–not charted–will be more than its usual mess, because of its 2015 overlap with Mardi Gras. I’ve assigned it a crowd ranking of 11/highest.  Crowds will start to show beginning the Thursday before and remain high through the 21st.

Next to no kids are on break between the week after President’s Day and March 6. I rate the week beginning February 21 4/low-plus crowds–higher early in the week, better later.  The week beginning February 28 is rated 3/low crowds. Both of these are recommended weeks.

The weeks beginning March 7, 14 and 21 have a lot of kids on break, and even more visitors coming to take a break from the snow. For 2015, I rate all three as 9/high crowds.

The week of March 28 is the week before Easter, typically the busiest week of spring break at Disney World.

However, in 2015 more kids are on break after Easter than before it, so I have the week beginning the 28th ranked as 10/higher crowds, and the week beginning April 4th as 11/ highest crowds.

Only a few school districts are on break after the week after Easter–and many of these had earlier long breaks in February. So I don’t see any real crowding issues from April 11, 2015 through late May! Almost all of these later spring weeks are recommended.

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DISNEY WORLD CROWDS FROM LATER DECEMBER 2014 TO EARLY JANUARY 2015

Disney World usually sees its highest crowds and prices of the year in the later third of December and the beginning of January, in the week that includes Christmas, and the next week that includes New Year’s Eve.

This is for a pretty basic reason: kids are out of school these weeks.

However, not every school district has the same break schedule.

In 2014/2015, more kids are out  New Year’s week than early in Christmas week, but there’s still plenty enough on break Christmas week to wildly crowd the parks…

SCHOOL BREAKS AND DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Most years, there two typical sorts of breaks:

• Long breakers–districts that take at least 2 full weeks (and three weekends) off
• Short breakers–districts that take off as close to only December 24 to January 1 as they can

In 2014, a Thursday Christmas, and the patterning of school breaks around it, will make it easy for many families to head to Walt Disney World either week.

But the Thursday New Years Day results in next to no schools re-opening Friday January 2 for a one-day week.  Wouldn’t be prudent.

So almost all kids will be off all of New Years week, and unlike some years–like 2013–both weeks will be really lousy all week long.

ACTUAL 2014-2015 CHRISTMAS SEASON SCHOOL BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 160 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

(For how the database is built, see this.)

The weekends are in black and the two holidays–Christmas and New Year’s Day–in red.  Click the image enlarge it.

You can see that many breaks begin Saturday the 20th, with hardly any kids on break before then, but almost 30% of kids are still in school the first two weekdays of Christmas week. By Christmas Eve, though, everyone is out, and pretty much everybody stays out of school through January 4, 2015.  A few–very few–breaks continue past January 4.

So I’m classing both weeks as 11/highest crowds, but of the two, New Year’s week will be a little worse.

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FALL BREAK CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD?

One of the things you’ll see now and then on blogs and discussion boards is the claim that “fall breaks from school crowd Walt Disney World.”

“Fall breaks” are multi-day school holidays before Thanksgiving, and, if material, would have an effect on Disney World—because Disney World is most crowded when it’s easy for kids to go.

If you check the facts, though, you’ll find that fall breaks are both uncommon and scattered across October and early November—other than Jersey Week and the Columbus Day weekend.

Outside of those two weeks, you are much more likely to run into trouble in the fall by choosing to go to the Magic Kingdom or Epcot on a bad day—

• Epcot on a day when it’s open late for Food and Wine,
• The Magic Kingdom on a day when Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party or Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party is not showing, and evening hours and entertainment offerings are thus more extensive.

See the chart, which shows the weighted percent of US school kids in my database with more than a three-day weekend in later September, all of October, and in November before Thanksgiving week.

(For how the database is built, see this.)

In it, weekends are in black, and the two holidays in color—Columbus Day in red, and Veteran’s Day in orange. Everything else is blue.

The first conclusion you can draw is that the only time when even 9% of kids are having more than a three day weekends is over the Columbus Day holiday weekend, and that next to no kids have the full weeks before or after off (the much lower percentages on Wednesdays is the giveaway to that).

This is already known to be a moderate crowd week—from the Columbus Day holiday and Canadian Thanksgiving—so as a “fall break” there’s no real news here.

Note also that hardly any kids have a break weekend that includes Veterans Day.  This holiday is celebrated on its actual date—November 11–although if it occurs over the weekend, days off will be on Friday or Monday.  So more than half of years, it does not lead to a three day weekend, as it does not in 2014.

Moreover, even if it does, most private, non-unionized employers don’t have it as a holiday, so it’s not a particularly great time for parents to go to Walt Disney World.  In 2014, some Jersey Week families may stretch their stay to Tuesday, but, since few parents have it off, they are just as likely–perhaps more likely, given the tradition–to take extra time off the week before.

Second, beyond those, there’s not a lot of material fall breaks.  Yes, you can see them every week shown, especially at the end of September and the first week of October, but not much—at most around 7% of kids, and more typically much less.  There’s just not enough here to materially affect your choices as to when to go to Walt Disney World, other than Jersey Week and Columbus Day week.

Note: none of this is about Thanksgiving week, which is quite crowded and a lousy time to go!

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