Chance of Hurricane Affecting Florida during Visit by Arrival Date
THE HURRICANE SEASON AT WALT DISNEY WORLD
The thumbnail (click to open) illuminates the chance of a cyclonic storm affecting any part of Florida during any part of a 9 day visit to Walt Disney World.
It’s by arrival date, and is based on 30 years of data.
It helps illuminate the Disney World (and Florida) hurricane season more specifically than general statements like “The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.”
The takeaway is that a 9 day Walt Disney World vacation has the biggest chance of being affected for arrival dates in late August through early October.
Ninety percent of activity is from August through October; 50% between August 20th and October 10th; and the peak of the storm season is September 10th.
It is unusual for a Disney vacation to be ruined by a cyclonic storm–but it happens.
DATA SOURCES
All this site’s weather pages except for the material on cyclonic storms and on tornadoes are based on 20 years of data from the National Weather Service ending in December 2006. The cyclonic storm material is based on 30 years of data from Wikipedia. The tornado material is from NOAA/NCDC and goes from 1950 through October 2009.
ORLANDO WEATHER LINKS
- Weather and When to Go
- High Temperatures Year Round
- Average Rainfall by Arrival Date
- Hurricanes
- Tornadoes
- Chance of Winter High Temperature Over 75
- Pool Days November through February
MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD
- For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
- For the next best dates, see this
- For the best and worst times to visit, see this
- For 2011 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
- For the 2011 Week Picker, see this
- For 2012 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
- For the 2012 Week Picker, see this
- For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
- For the 2011 Crowd Calendar, click here
- For the 2012 Crowd Calendar, click here
- For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
- For 2011 price seasons, see this
- For 2012 price seasons, see this
- For weather at Walt Disney World, see this
25 comments
Where coming to Disney World august 19 thru 28 2011. I’m concerned if there is going to be any people there when we get there. I don’ like crowds, but I just don’t want to feel like that we are the only ones in the park.
No worries–while crowds will be low, that’s a relative, not an absolute–there will be tens of thousands of people in the parks! Plenty of people around…
Hi there,
My fiance and I are going to Walt Disney World for our honeymoon from August 14th-August 21st. I was wondering what we can expect in terms of weather. I know there will be some rain… but we’ve never experienced any form of hurricane weather. A little prep would be nice…
Hi Natalie!
What you can generally expect is high heat, high humidity, and afternoon thunderstomrs.
IF a hurricane becomes relevant, you will know about it (if you pay attention to the weather) several days before. Because Orlando is so far inland, the results would most likely be heavy continuing storms. Depending on intensity, some rides and even parks might close, and people would be evacuated from the campgrounds.
The vast majority of the time hurricanes don’t happen; if they do, they often don’t much matter…it’s rare for them to actually have an impact on a WDW vacation…but it does happen…
Hi, i will arrive in orlando on the 13th of august and will be leaving the 27th. Im worried about hurricanes and storms, how will i be made aware of this happening ?
Whit, storms and hurricanes come with a lot of warning. I’d check out the Orlando paper (the Sentinel), the weather channel, and weather.com as your trip gets closer and during your visit.
There’s also some helpful suggestions on my “Tornadoes” page here: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/02/02/tornadoes-at-walt-disney-world/
We are going to Disney and are arriving on August 4 2011, we have been watching the weather, would you recommend rescheduling our trip.
Brandon that’s such a personal decision that my opinion is worth little. That said, since you asked…
I wouldn’t unless it’s a very short visit and you are flying potentially through Emily’s path and thus more subject to delays, and/or tent camping at Fort Wilderness. Right now I see the worst reasonable case for Emily in Orlando (if it even comes close) is bad thunderstorms.
Brandon, see also this: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/08/02/emily-and-walt-disney-world/
We’re thinking of going to DW/universal the week of 10/3/2011 which is fall break for the kids. We’ve never been before, and have no idea what we’re doing! I saw the 20th ranking for this week, but it looks good for wait/cost. Is the main down side the chance of storms? and if so just how bad/often are they?
Thanks, Paul
Yup, Paul, the only ding on this week is the increased chance of hurricanes. Otherwise it’s a great week. They rarely happen, and if they do, usually just mean heavy thunderstorms, so it’s not a big deal. I highlight them because if this may be your ONLY visit EVER, they are worth taking into account!
Thanks Dave, The other option is the start of Christmas break 12/17. Your site says moderate for traffic that week. We want to give it 2 days at Universal, and 3 days for WDW, but I’m a little worried about the crowds picking up. I’d almost rather deal with a hurricane than 1hr+ waits!
Your site is really helping out – thanks for all the work!
Glad to help Paul!
I concur with your judgment. The odds are better that it’ll be more crowded than I think the week of the 17th than that you’ll actually face a hurricane on your earlier dates!
We are going to Disney World Sepetember 16-24 and after reading about it being the peak of hurricane season I am a bit worried our vacation will be ruined
What should I expect the weather to be like during this time?? Thanks!!!
Hi Pam!
Hurricanes the vast majority of the time don’t happen, and if they do, barely affect Orlando! The odds are that you will be fine.
hi, we are arriving on august 25th and see rain for everyday for the next week, is there a hurricane or storm there, or how can they predict rain everyday 15 days out, and how accurate can it be?
Hi Mic!
In the summer, Orlando has thunderstorms (often brief, sometimes intense) almost every afternoon…that’s what you are seeing…
Here’s hoping nothing happens as we make our long anticipated first visit from Oct 1-8..we’re all absolutely PUMPED! Thanks for your hard work in keeping up this great website.
FIngers crossed that you’ll have a great–and dry–visit, Andre! Dave
We are going September 20 thru the 29th and are wondering if we have anything to worry about.
Hi Latoya!
You are going during the peak of the hurricane season. However, they happen rarely, if they do happen affect Orlando rarely, and when they do affect Orlando it’s mostly more like bad thunderstorms. So the odds are you will be ok…
I just returned from my week long trip in WDW for my 10th visit, (my step-daughter and fiance’s 1st visit). We stayed at the Wilderness Lodge, now I am planning next years trip. I am thinking of staying in the Beach Club or Polynesian. I have stayed at the Polynesian before, but only the Yacht Club, not the Beach Club. Could you give your thoughts on the Beach Club, or any other resorts you feel are top. Also, I know the opening of some aspects of the expansion are set for early and late 2012. Do you have a better idea of the late 2012 openings? I am planning right now for a last week of September 2012 anticipating that the “late 2012″ expansion openings will be open by then. Thanks,
Hey Travis!
In my opinion, if you’ve done the Yacht Club, the Beach Club is about the same. It’s closer to Epcot, further from HS, and has many fewer rooms with full balconies–a lot of its rooms have balconies that are just a foot deep. The positives are otherwise the same, as are the negatives.
If you liked Wilderness Lodge, I’d vote for the Animal Kingdom Lodge: http://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/10/13/review-jambo-house-at-disneys-animal-kingdom-lodge/
Re the 2012 expansions…my guess–and that’s all it is, a guess–is that they will be open before Thanksgiving, so that Thanksgiving crowds can test them before the Xmas crowds. I personally wouldn’t bet on September–but that’s just a guess…
We are planning our first trip to disneynwith two kids (2 and 5). It seems the only time we can go is 8/13 to 8/19. Everyone is telling us that we’re crazy b/c it will be too hot and crowded ESP for young kids. What do you think, are we asking for trouble?
Hi Jen. Everyone is right–it’s hot and crowded then. Given that your kids are so young you’d need to bring them back another time anyway, why not wait until you can go at a better time of the year? Save the money you’d spend this time and spend it on a great trip later…
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