Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

WINTER AT DISNEY WORLD

Winter at Walt Disney World—loosely defined as November through February–is the most variable of seasons.

The weather is literally variable—cooler, and with typical daily highs ranging from the low 60s to the 80s. Tornadoes can be an issue during this period. See this for more.

Crowds are both at their lowest—in January and February after the Martin Luther King Day weekend and before the President’s Day week—and at their highest, over the week that includes New Years Eve.

Prices are the lowest of the year from early January through mid-February (the value season). They also hit their highest level of the year in winter, over the weeks that include Christmas and New Year’s Eve.
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I recently published my Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar for 2012 and, based on it and other factors, revised the list of 2012 weeks to visit Disney World ranked in order.

I’ve also published details on 2012 crowds during key periods–

• Crowds during the Christmas-New Year’s season 2011-2012
• Crowds during 2012 Spring Break
• Summer 2012 crowds, and
• The lowest crowd weeks of 2012 at Disney World

In this post, I’ll be explaining how my Disney World 2012 Crowd Calendar is different from those I’ve been publishing for the last 3+ years (e.g. this one for 2011) but also how it’s the same!

SAME PURPOSE: HELPING FAMILIES FIND THE LEAST CROWDED TIMES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The new crowd calendar has the same old purpose–to help first time family visitors, unsure if they will ever return, to find the more and less crowded weeks at Walt Disney World.

It’s not mean to give precise day by day crowd forecasts–the best source for those is TouringPlans.com.

It also uses the same data sources I’ve always used–greater and lower operating hours, the exact dates of kid’s school breaks, and my own inferences based on experience, knowledge, and research.

I’ve incorporated even more school breaks than I had in the past, where my focus had been solely on sharpening up the Spring Break crowd forecasts.  My school calendars now cover all the major family vacation periods.

What’s different is how I bring all this to a label.  In the past, my crowd “number” came from a normalized index of excess operating hours, which I then adjusted based on school break info and inferences.

However, this approach no longer works so well.

The biggest problem with it has been that Disney has lately been frequently changing its operating hours–usually adding to them–which caused my crowd calendar to both look funny—crowded later dates don’t look as bad as they will be because hours have not yet been added–and to change month to month in ways that actually aren’t important.

So what I’ve done in the new 2012 Disney Crowd Calendar is, using the same analytics as before, to re-label every week from 1 (lowest crowds) to 11 (highest crowds).

This makes it both more accurate and more stable. So weeks that I know will be crowded, and that will thus have operating hours added, are just indicated as high crowd weeks now…

MY DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR GOES TO 11

The choice of 1-10 as the ranking would have been easier–it would have followed the traditional TouringPlans.com model.

But what TouringPlans.com currently groups together as “10” weeks seems to me to mask among these really bad weeks some really nightmarish ones.

I’d recommended to them (see this comment and the one that precedes it) that the distinguish these nightmare weeks, but they haven’t taken me up on this advice 🙂 .  So I took it myself, both as a source of additional crowd precision and as a tribute to Spinal Tap!

The final changes are that the layout of the Crowd Calendar is now horizontal rather than vertical, which gave me room to add the dates of every week, and I’ve now color-coded the bars.

Check it out–it’s here.

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the next best dates, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2011 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2011 Week Picker, see this
  • For 2012 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2011 price seasons, see this
  • For 2012 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

CHRISTMAS IN JULY

Magical Blogorail Teal is writing this month about Christmas at Walt Disney World.

Welcome to those of you joining me from The World of Deej and those of you who have just hopped aboard. I am the 3rd stop on our Magical Blogorail.

Since 2008, this site has been listing the weeks of the year ranked in order for first-time Walt Disney World visitors who may never return.

(For example, see this for 2011 and this for 2012.)

Every year the top 3 weeks have been the Christmas season weeks beginning right after Thanksgiving.

WHY THESE CHRISTMAS SEASON WEEKS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD?

Each year I end up with about 14-18 recommended weeks.

I get to these by tossing the ride closure weeks, the horribly crowded holiday, spring break and summer weeks, the weeks that happen at the peak of the hurricane season, and some other higher-crowd weeks.

The weeks that remain are lower-crowd weeks that don’t have a weather or ride-closure reason not to go.

I generally sort these remaining weeks by crowds and prices, but the weeks that rise to the top are always the three Christmas season weeks right after Thanksgiving.

These aren’t the  lowest crowd weeks of the year (which occur in the peak hurricane and ride closure seasons) nor are they the lowest price weeks of the year (ditto).

What they are is lower crowd, lower price weeks that also have the full display of Disney World Christmas magic.

Special Christmas events and displays occur across the parks and the resort hotels beginning in early November.

They are fully in place by the Friday after Thanksgiving, and continue to New Years.

I won’t go into details here as I have done so elsewhere, plus my buds in Magical Blogorail Teal will cover them.

Any family vacation at in the Christmas season is magical.

A Christmas season family vacation at Walt Disney World would be even more magical, even if this special Disney Christmas stuff wasn’t happening (avoid the latter part of December though–the crowds and prices then are unimaginably high.)

But combine a family Christmas season vacation with all the wonder that Disney puts into celebrating Christmas, and you’ve got a family vacation you will never forget…

MORE ON A DISNEY CHRISTMAS IN JULY FROM MAGICAL BLOGORAIL TEAL

Thank you for joining me today. Your next stop on the Magical Blogorail is The DisneyFAITHful.

Here is the map of our Magical Blogorail loop should you happen to have to make a stop along the way and want to reboard:

• 1st Stop ~ Capturing Magical Memories
• 2nd Stop ~ The World of Deej
• 3rd Stop ~ yourfirstvisit.net
• 4th Stop ~ The DisneyFAITHful
• Final Stop ~ The Many Adventures of a Disney-Lovin’ Spectrum Mom

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

OVERVIEW: FEBRUARY 2012 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews February 2012 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, operating hours, adds a few other notes, and ends with week by week summaries.

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DISNEY WORLD SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds are governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in mid-August

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the week that includes the 4th of July the busiest week.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June starts well, but builds to high crowd levels later in the month.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go in early June if they can, or, if their schools are not out then, as late in August as their schedules permit.

2012 PUBLIC SCHOOL SUMMER BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

The beginnings of summer breaks vary more than most people think.

The chart to the right illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 125 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

(Click it to enlarge it; when it opens, click it again to enlarge it more.)

In 2012, only about 10% of kids are out before June; 30% are out as of June 2, 2012, 60% as of June 9; the proportion builds slowly over the rest of the month, with essentially all kids off by June 28, 2012.

Few families plan their vacation for their first day out of school, so there’s a lag in the effect of these dates on summer crowds that I can’t precisely quantify.

But the upshot is that early June is not bad.

I rate crowds the week beginning June 2 as 5/moderate-minus, June 9 as 7/moderate-plus, and June 16 begins a string of 9 straight summer weeks rated 9/high or 10/higher.

Because of the variation noted above in when people do go vs. can go, the weeks of June 9 and 16 may be a little better than I’m rating them, but my data sets won’t let me draw that conclusion.

THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON AND DISNEY WORLD SUMMER CROWDS

The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November.

It peaks, however, from mid-August to early October.

(Click the chart; see also Weather and When to Go to Walt Disney World.)

As a result, August crowds at Walt Disney World are affected not only by the end dates of summer breaks, but also by savvy travelers avoiding this potential weather.

Hurricanes rarely impact a Disney World vacation…but savvy travelers with choices in when they can go commonly avoid this period. (Disney knows this of course, and both drops prices and commonly offers free dining during this period to change the value and risk equation.)

As a result, I rank crowds for the first two weeks of August (arrival dates 8/4 and 8/11/2012) 9/high.  The week beginning 8/18 gets a crowd rating of 6/moderate. The week beginning 8/25 gets a crowd rating of 3/low.

DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World Spring Break crowds are governed by two and a quarter factors:

• Public school Spring Break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter
• The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, and
• The quarter factor, the date of President’s day.  Later President’s Days (which can range from February 15 to February 21) tend to make the first part of March better

An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter spreads the first two factors out, yielding some good later March and early April weeks.

Easter 2012, on April 8,  is right in the middle of the possible range. President’s Day 2012, on February 20th, as almost as late as it can be.

As a result, 2012 Spring Break crowds at Walt Disney World will be fine the first week of March, but bad from March 10 through April 15, with the peak crowds (rated 11 on my 2012 crowd calendar) happening the weeks beginning March 10, March 31, and April 7.

2012 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Although more and more school districts are moving away from an Easter-centered Spring Break, the plurality of kids still have the week before Easter off.

As a result, the single biggest factor determining better and worse Spring Break weeks at Walt Disney World is the date of Easter–which can range from March 22 to April 25.

A later Easter has a couple of different effects: first, it spreads out the dates of breaks for school districts that don’t frame their breaks around Easter, and second, if particularly late, will push districts that typically take the week after Easter off into the week before Easter instead, to keep from compressing their May academic calendars.  We saw this in 2011.

An earlier Easter has the opposite effects.  Districts that traditionally try to take the week after Easter off will be able to do so, and districts that don’t base their calendars on Easter will be largely  compressed into a couple of March weeks.

(The compression point partly comes from only just so much March to go around, but also from the fact that such school districts don’t like taking the week before the traditional Easter break off, as it will lead into a set of political discussions (“If we could take that week off, why not slip it a week and take before week of Easter off? What do you have against Easter??”) that they don’t want to revisit.)

The date of President’s Day–which can range from February 15 to February 21–also has an effect. Because many districts both have a spring break and also take the week of  President’s Day off, the later President’s Day is, the better early March will be–as parents  avoid taking their kids out of school the weeks after a long President’s Day break.

The effect of the various dates in 2012 is to compress 2012 school spring breaks into three weeks: those beginning March 10, March 31, and April 7.

 ACTUAL 2012 SPRING BREAKS

The chart to the right illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 125 of the largest relevant US public school districts.

(Click it to enlarge it; when it opens, click it again to enlarge it more.)

More kids are on break the week before Easter than any other week; the week after Easter and the week beginning 3/10 are the next highest break weeks.  I’ve rated each of these 11/highest crowds in my 2012 crowd calendar.

Next to no kids are on break between the week after President’s Day and March 10. I rate the week beginning February 25 2/lower crowds and that beginning March 3 3/low crowds.  Both of these are recommended weeks.

The later March weeks–especially the week beginning March 24–have fewer kids on break than the three weeks rated highest/11.  However, because of the snowbelt effect, I’ve rated both of these 10/higher crowds.  The week beginning March 24 may turn out better than this…but I wouldn’t bet on it!

Worth noting is that the peak 2012 price season has its first period 2/16 to 2/25, and then restarts 3/9 going to 4/14.

Price seasons aren’t crowd calendars–they are more subtle than that–but do provide a little confirmatory data…