Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

My crowd calendars (examples below) are designed to guide first time visitors to WDW who may never return toward lower crowd weeks and away from higher-crowd ones.

My ranking system—in homage to Spinal Tap—goes from 1 to 11, and the “green” weeks (rankings 1-4) are forecast as good choices, “red” (rankings 8-11) bad, and black (5-7) in between.

Because I don’t think it helps first timers to be wishy-washy, I don’t aim for a normal distribution, but rather put very few weeks in the “in-between” category. Thus my rankings end up compressed into 4 and below and 8 and above.

Other good crowd calendars that put more of their dates into the center of the ranking distribution will have many more weeks ranked 5, 6, and 7 than I do. The way I try to guide first timers to better weeks, what others will show as average—or even slightly above average—crowds I will show as “low.”

For the same reason, my rankings are ordinal, not cardinal. A ranking of 1 is better than a ranking of 2, but not twice as good.

Moreover they are not tied to the same numbers in prior years—a 3 this year is not the same as a 3 at the depth of the recession. Rather, simply, each year, within the year, I am forecasting that a 3 is better than a 5, and not as good as a 1.

My crowd calendar forecasts are based on two principal inputs:

1. Disney World’s own crowd projections, as inferred from the variations in operating hours it offers over the course of the year, as modified by
2. Annual analysis of every break longer than a three day weekend for 10 million US schoolkids, weighted based on their propensity to visit Disney World.

When I first started this site, my crowd forecasts were based entirely on variations in operating hours at Disney’s Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom parks. (I left out Epcot because it sees fewer many changes in hours, and the Magic Kingdom because I could not figure out how to account for the Halloween and Christmas parties.)

After a few years of building up data, I would forecast the next 6 months based on Disney’s actual schedule and the 6 months after that based on the historic patterns I’d developed, modified for moving holidays.

Above is an example of the results of how I used to do it.

This worked OK for a while, but was not sharp enough in distinguishing spring break weeks and the beginning and end of the Christmas/New Years rush in particular.

Moreover it broke entirely later in the last recession when Disney started showing three months of hours rather than six, and then, after it returned to six months, it started showed limited schedules for the out months, with additions to hours coming close to the actual dates.

So in response, I began supplementing my crowd calendars several years ago with annual analysis of all school breaks longer than a three day weekend in ~180 school districts. These 180 districts are the 100 largest districts in the country, supplemented by 80 more large east-of-the Mississippi districts intended to better flesh out states with only a few or no districts in the top 100.

Analytically the way I work with the districts is that I weight districts in a state by kids per analyzed district, and then weight the results for the state based on their relative proportion of visits to this site, as a proxy for geographic interest in Disney World. The state weighting corrects as well as I can for propensity to visit Disney World compared to the distribution of the 180 districts—especially the top 100—across the states.

I use the results to sharpen my forecasts for June, August, the fall, Christmas, the week of President’s Day, and spring breaks. The week of President’s Day and spring breaks are particularly tricky because of higher visitation from snow-birds than either operating hours or school calendars would imply, but with experience I’ve gotten closer on these.

That last point suggests the role of judgement. In a Bayesian sense, my draft Crowd Calendars are the prior based on history, and they then get modified based on the results of the school break analysis, my recent experience (30-60 days in the parks a year, at all different times of the year), history, judgment and help from others—particularly Josh of easyWDW and Carl of Dad’s Guide to WDW and WDW Magazine. (Josh and I co-author The easy Guide to Your First Walt Disney World Visit and within it co-create the crowd material it forecasts, and Carl and I co-author an annual crowd forecast in WDW Magazine.)

There’s no perfection in any forecasting, and I do make mistakes, especially about spring break crowds, where I get a week significantly wrong (more crowded than I predict) on average about once every two years.

Any fool can say “don’t go to Disney World in March or April” and take no risk of complaints. Instead, I try to find spring break weeks that are actually good. Rarely are my suggested spring break weeks ones that have no kids on break—rather, they are ones that are 1. before or after the March snowbird influx that 2. also have relatively few kids on break compared to the mass-break weeks in later March and before and after Easter.

There several ways these forecasts can go wrong.

First is sampling error—that the 10 million kids I analyze aren’t representative of the 40 million I don’t. This is particularly a potential issue when I use city school district calendars as the proxy for a state, and miss different breaks in its surrounding suburbs. These different breaks won’t matter if they match weeks that are already lousy, but they will matter if they match weeks where few of the 180 districts I currently analyze have breaks. I’ll be sharpening this up for 2017.

Second is a change in Disney operations. My forecasts assume that operating policies remain similar year to year. If Disney cuts staffing and per-hour capacity, waits will shoot up even on a day when an average number of people are in the parks.

Third is a differential change in propensity to travel on a given set of dates. There’s a couple of ways this could happen.

• One is a one-time effect from weather. For example a much warmer northeastern winter, or a winter with so much snow that northeastern travel shuts down, may push people from January and February into March and April, because they either don’t need the winter break as badly, or, despite how they need it, transportation shuts down.
• Fall breaks are another possible driver of changes in propensity to travel on a given set of dates. I can’t document that they are a lot more common than they were a few years ago, but what may be happening is that more people are realizing that they are a better time to go to Disney World than the traditional holiday seasons.

This raises another point. My Disney Experience and FastPass+ have made the internet an essential part of a Disney World experience, rather than an optional one. This, plus the fact that the core Disney World first-time planners (parents in their 30s) are in the “always knew about Google” generation may mean that more people may be searching for better and worse times to go, and acting on the advice they find, thus shifting the propensity to travel at certain times.

The final issue any crowd calendar faces is a mismatch of expectations and reality.

All the time I get comments along the lines of “Hey, you said last week was a low crowd week, but we waited 30 minutes Wednesday afternoon for Pirates of the Caribbean! You made a terrible forecast.”

Well, these days an afternoon standby wait of 30 minutes for Pirates is a marker of a low crowd day…

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OVERVIEW: OCTOBER 2016 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews October 2016 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Later October has some of the best times of the year to visit Disney World, with nice weather, low crowds, low prices, and fun special events.

The first half of the month is OK, but not so good, as the first week is still in the peak of the hurricane season, and the second week sees extra crowds and higher prices from Columbus Day.

[Read more →]

OVERVIEW: SEPTEMBER 2016 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews September 2016 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

September combines low crowds with low prices, and typically also has a great room rate and free dining deals as well.

This makes it a great month for returning visitors.

But it has lousy weather, combining continuing summer heat and humidity with the peak of the hurricane season, making me not so keen on the month for first time visitors who may never return.

[Read more →]

Most years, I recommend arriving in Walt Disney World either two or three of the first three Saturdays after Thanksgiving.

In 2022 I recommend the first two weeks after Thanksgiving–the weeks beginning 11/26 and 12/3/2022.  See this for all of the weeks of 2022 ranked in order.

There’s two basic choices for when to go to Walt Disney World.

• You can go to Disney World when it’s convenient for your family, and simply accept the specific circumstances that you will find at that time—crowds, wait times, price levels, weather, special events, and the odds of rides being closed for refurb.
• Or you can pick the specific circumstances that best suit you, and go to Disney World during one of the periods that best displays them.

If you follow the first approach, you likely will find high crowds and long waits, as the most convenient time to go is when the kids are out of school, so what works best for you will also work best for hundreds of thousands of other people.

If you follow the second approach, and pick the circumstances that are best for you, then you weigh several key variables, and target your dates based on which among them are most important to you.

If you are a first-time visitor, I’ve already weighed the weeks of the year on your behalf based on crowds, prices, ride closures, the peak of the hurricane season, and special events.

You can find my 2022 week rankings here.

First-timers who may never return should also consider if their kids are old enough to get the best out of Disney World.

If you are a returning visitor—or a first timer who wants to figure this out for yourself—the key circumstances to keep in mind follow.

CROWDS AND WHEN TO GO TO DISNEY WORLD

Crowds. Disney World is never not crowded, but some dates are much worse, and some much better, than others.

Disney World is at its most crowded when tens of millions of US schoolkids are out of school—the summer, Thanksgiving week, the weeks of Christmas and New Years, the week of President’s Day, and the spring break weeks from early March through the week after Easter.

Historically the least crowded times to visit are in September after Labor Day and the period in January and early February from after Martin Luther King Day until the Thursday before Presidents Day.

My 2022 Disney World crowd calendar forecasts crowd levels for every week of the year.

My calendars predict low (green), moderate (black) and high crowd (red) weeks.

Curiously, every year I get flamed a few times because some people interpret my “low crowds” as meaning “no crowds.” For these calendars, that’s as wrong as thinking that a “low-priced” car is free, or that a forecast for “low temperatures” tomorrow means 459.67 degrees below zero, or that a “low bridge” is one that sits on the roadway below it.

“Low crowds” in my calendars means “lower than other possible dates.” It doesn’t mean no crowds, nor even crowds as low as you—or I—wish they were!

PRICES AND WHEN TO GO TO DISNEY WORLD

Hotel Prices. Disney hotel prices can be twice as expensive some times of the year as others.

They vary to a complex schedule that can include different prices for weekdays/weekends/short holiday weekends, and longer periods different prices based on of higher and lower willingness to pay.

Some will tell you that they are least expensive during the low crowd periods, and most expensive during the high crowd periods.

This is not entirely true—you can find both lower priced high crowd periods, and higher priced low crowd periods. Some months with mostly similar crowd levels will see four or more different price changes!

You can find the 2022 Disney World hotel price seasons here.

Ticket Prices.  Beginning in late 2018, Disney World began charging different prices for tickets at different times of the year.  The upshot is that you will pay more for more popular dates, and less for other dates.

You can see a color-coded calendar of the 2022 Disney World ticket prices here.

Disney World usually offers deals covering all but the most crowded weeks of the year.

Among these, the most popular and valuable has been free dining, which is often available for much of September and selected dates later in the year. This deal did not return in 2021, and may  not return in 2022 either.

You can find any current Disney World deals open to the general public here.

WEATHER AND WHEN TO GO TO DISNEY WORLD

Weather. Despite the image people have of Florida as having year-round sunshine and warmth, there’s actually a couple of weather points to keep in mind.

First, winter weather can be much cooler, and much more variable, than people expect.

Second, the summer—especially later June through September—reliably combines brutal heat with brutal humidity with daily thunderstorms.

Third, the peak of the hurricane season is from later August through earlier October.

The weather you find best will depend on your preferences, but to me the ideal weather in Orlando is in later April and mid-later October—easily warm enough for the pool, but not so hot and humid that I don’t want to leave my room.

There’s more on Disney Word weather beginning here.

SPECIAL EVENTS AND WHEN TO GO TO DISNEY WORLD

Special Events. Both major and minor special events dot the Disney World calendar.

None but perhaps the Christmas season celebrations and Halloween parties matter much to most first time visitors, but many returning visitors pick their dates to map to one of the major special events:

The spring Flower and Garden Festival

The fall Food and Wine Festival

The fall Halloween parties

The November and December Christmas parties and other Christmas celebrations

The winter Festival of the Arts

RIDE CLOSURES AND WHEN TO GO TO DISNEY WORLD

Ride Closures. Disney World closes rides for refurbishment and renewal at any time of the year, and longer refurbishments can last 6 months or more.

That said, rides are most predictably closed from early January through mid-February.

There’s more on ride closures at Disney World here.

Hope this helps–and if not, check out the links, or ask me a question in the comment form below!

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OVERVIEW: AUGUST 2016 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews August 2016 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

There are no great times for first-timers who may never return to visit in August. Kids start going back to school in August, so crowds go down later in the month–but that’s also when the peak of the hurricane season kicks off.

Prices begin the month low at the deluxes, OK at the moderates, and high at the values. Moderate and value prices drop to among the lowest of the year August 19.

For first-timers who can’t return, the best week is that beginning 8/6–higher crowds and prices than later in the month, but lower hurricane risk.

For those who can return–or are returning–the later in the month, the better.

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OVERVIEW: JULY 2016 AT DISNEY WORLD

This page reviews July 2016 Walt Disney World crowds, prices, deals and discounts, weather, and operating hours; adds a few other notes; and ends with week by week summaries.

Because pretty much every US school kid is on break in July, July overall is the most crowded month at Walt Disney World.

Prices begin the month OK at the deluxes and moderates, and high at the values. Moderate and value prices stay at this level all month, but at the deluxes prices drop to low levels on July 12.

Weather is miserably hot and humid all month long.

There are no good weeks in July, but the later the visit the better–especially if you are staying in a deluxe.

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