Disney World Crowds in 2024

By Dave Shute

2024 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The chart lower on the page shows my current forecasts for 2024 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.

I’m forecasting a “return to normal” for crowd patterns in 2024, with less crowding in particular in January and in the summer compared to 2022 and 2023–though 2023 was a mixed bag.

My Disney World crowd forecasts are based on a combination of historical patterns and the specific influence of school breaks. The varying year to year timing of school breaks particularly shapes crowding during the spring break season.

Ticket prices also had some influence on my forecasts, but ticket prices are not the clear crowd forecast that some think they are.  Lower-priced days will be less crowded, but not all higher priced days are more crowded, as Disney prices tickets not only for quantitative demand but also for perceived value. For more on 2024 ticket prices at Disney World, see this.

As always, I forecast by Saturday arrival date, and the forecast includes the arrival Saturday through the second Sunday following–so 9 total days.

THE 2024 DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR

Dates in the 2024 Disney World Crowd Calendar are the Saturday at the beginning of the week, and cover that Saturday through the following Sunday, as that nine-day period matches my suggested itineraries.

Crowd levels are ranked by week from 1-11 in the following way:

1: Lowest of the year

2: Low-minus

3: Low

4: Low-plus

5: Moderate-minus

6: Moderate

7: Moderate-plus

8: High

9: Higher

10: High-plus

11: Highest

HOW TO INTERPRET THE 2024 DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR

Dates are the Saturday of arrival.

As is the case in almost every good Disney World crowd calendar, the forecasts are about wait times for rides–not about how crowded the areas outside the rides might be.

The forecasts are about the weeks relative to each other.

The “low crowd” weeks–those colored green, and rated 1-4–represent the best crowd levels for a family visiting for the first time and unsure if it will ever return.

However, lower crowds do not always mean a better week to visit. Some low-crowd weeks best avoided by first timers who may never return because they are in the mid-August to mid-October peak hurricane season or the early January-early February ride closure seasons.

The “moderate crowd” weeks–those in blue and rated 5-7–have crowd levels I traditionally would not particularly recommend to first time visitors. However, with the aid of daily Early Entry in each of the parks, and the tools of Genie+ and ILL, crowd level 5 days can be managed quite easily, so I now have no qualms about recommending them.

Crowd level 6 and 7 days are trickier, as among other things they often have more uncertainty associated with them. However, I’d go during such weeks myself with no hesitation, and think these levels are totally OK for returning visitors who don’t need to see everything and already know how to work Walt Disney World.

The “high crowd” weeks–those in red, rated 8-11–should be avoided by everyone. They aren’t, which is why they are so high.

MY DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR GOES UP TO “11”

The influence of the Unofficial Guide  and TouringPlans.com has led almost all Disney World crowd calendars to top out at 10.

However, I’ve always thought that the really nastiest weeks of the year deserved even more emphasis.

So, in homage to Spinal Tap, I assigned 11 to “highest.”

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