Like everybody else including Disney, I missed my crowd forecast for the week of April 2. What I (and everyone else) expected to be a fine week turned out to be pretty miserable.
There were two reasons for this.
- One was more people in the parks than anyone, including Disney, had forecast—about 25% more, which is not a huge amount—well less than Thanksgiving, for example—but enough to stress the systems, especially at the Magic Kingdom, which saw some days 35% more people than Disney expected. (How I build my crowd calendars and ways I can get my forecasts wrong are here.)
- The second reason was reduced operating hours, staffing, and capacity on Disney’s part. Much of the available capacity was given out to FastPass+, so almost all the extra demand went into standby lines, where it faced reduced numbers of ride vehicles, half of various rides shut down, not enough staff to load, and other problems. As a result, waits skyrocketed. Nobody knows quite why Disney is cutting back, but there’s some interesting hints here.
Josh (from whom I got the numbers) has multiple posts about what happened in the parks that week starting here.
(easyWDW image, used with permission but defaced as I chose)
But the cool thing is that you can complain to me in person!
The main opportunity will be Saturday April 23rd from 1p to 2p in Mexico at Epcot, where Josh and I (co-authors of The easy Guide to Your First Walt Disney World Visit, where we also got the crowd forecast wrong) will be doing a meet and greet, giveaway, and book signing. See Josh’s post here for an image of the exact location.
Bu I’ll be around before then, so hunt me down to complain in the most convenient setting!
Wednesday after I arrive I’ll be checking out some current or just completed refurbs at Port Orleans Riverside, Port Orleans French Quarter, the Wilderness Lodge, and the Cabins at Fort Wilderness.
Then it’s off to the Studios to check out the new Storm Troopers Procession and Star Wars stage show.
Then I’ll check in to my refurbed Studio at Jambo House to test it for an updated review. I’ll likely end the evening at the great Animal Kingdom Lodge bar the Victoria Falls Lounge watching the Cavs.
Thursday Josh and I have a business meeting to work on the changes for the 2017 edition of The easy Guide, then in the evening I’ll be testing just how many Magic Kingdom attractions I can do between 7p and 2a, courtesy of the Disney After Hours thingy. Battery permitting, I’ll be tweeting my experience via @yourfirstvisit.
Friday lovely wife Amy Girl arrives, and after I sleep in we’ll likely hang at the Animal Kingdom Lodge pool and the Animal Kingdom itself until we go to dinner at Capa at the Four Seasons, for a review and date night. We’ll check into a one bedroom villa at Jambo to continue the tour of the refurbed Jambo House Villas.
Saturday is the big meet up at Epcot, and we’ll be at Epcot before and after too!
So lots of places for you to yell at me about blowing that week’s forecast. And I am, indeed, sorry…
Follow yourfirstvisit.net on Facebook or Google+ or Twitter or Pinterest!!
Haha! We went that week trying to squeeze a day in before I started a new job and were walking around like “there are way more people here than expected”. A benefit of annual passes though, we always have another day…
Reply
I think all of the crowd models are not considering the Georgia Spring Break crowd. We know more and more people foregoing the beach trip for Disney. The economy is turning around in this state. We have more transplants due to the booming film industry and new business such a Mercedes, Porsche and other large companies moving their headquarters. Many of these people are taking advantage of bow living so close to Disney and taking their first trips.
Reply
Jane, I can’t speak for others, but Georgia school breaks have been in my analytics this entire decade.
Reply