Disney World Crowds in 2016
By Dave Shute
2016 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD
The chart lower on the page shows my forecasts for 2016 crowds by week at Walt Disney World.
Dates in it are the beginning of the week, and the forecast covers the recommended Saturday-Sunday 9 day stays.
(For 2017 crowds, see this, and for 2018 crowds, see this.)
Crowd levels are ranked by week from 1-11 in the following way:
1: Lowest of the year
2: Lower
3: Low
4: Low-plus
5: Moderate-minus
6: Moderate
7: Moderate-plus
8: High-minus
9: High
10: Higher
11: Highest
HOW TO INTERPRET THE 2016 DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR
Dates are the beginning of the week.
The “low crowd” weeks–those colored green, and rated 1-4–represent the only crowd levels a family visiting for the first time, and unsure if it will ever return, should consider.
However, lower crowds, especially lowest crowds, do not always mean a better week. The lowest weeks are often best avoided by first timers who may never return because they are in the hurricane or the ride closure seasons.
The “moderate crowd” weeks–those in black and rated 5-7–have crowd levels I would not particularly recommend to first time visitors, though the crowds can be managed with careful planning and lots of early mornings. However, I’d go during such weeks myself with no hesitation, and think these levels are OK for returning visitors who don’t need to see everything and already know how to work Walt Disney World.
The “high crowd” weeks–those in red, rated 8-11–should be avoided by everyone. They aren’t, which is why they are so high.
MY DISNEY WORLD CROWD CALENDAR GOES UP TO “11”
The influence of the Unofficial Guide and TouringPlans.com has led almost all Disney World crowd calendars to top out at 10.
However, I’ve always thought that the really nastiest weeks of the year deserved an 11 for emphasis.
So, in homage to Spinal Tap, I assigned 11 to “highest.”
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304 comments
Hmmm, when to go, when to go. My vote is January or second week in September.
February 27th is NOT a 3. I’m literally in line for Pirates and it’s a 35 minute wait. It’s more like a 7 right now.
A 7 would be a 70 minute wait, David. Standby waits have gone up wildly since FP+.
Hi Dave
We are looking at arriving on February 4th and leaving on the 10th or 11th. The 4th will be an arrival non-park day. This will be my family’s 4th time in the last few years but my sister and her husband and children are coming for the first time. When will you have a calendar out as to state what park will be the beat for each day? We are off the week of mardi gras but are trying to get there a bit early as to avoid to high of crowds later in the week. I know I’m early on this, just trying to plan ahead!
Thanks!
Lindsey
Hi Lindsey! I don’t do such calendars–I just answer when people ask! And I usually frame it as parks to avoid, so that you have more flexibility…
Those dates,
2/5 avoid MK
2/6 avoid Epcot
2/7 avoid MK and HS
2/8 avoid AK
2/9 avoid HS
2/10 avoid Epcot
Thanks so much!! You’re awesome!!
Just want to make sure you know I’m talking about 2016.
Oh Lindsey then ignore this! I won’t have any good advice for good days in Feb 2016 until Disney releases its calendar for then, whihc it will do in late July 2105…
I’m considering running the Glass Slipper Challenge in 2016. We were planning on going back to WDW Nov/Dec 2015 but we may put it off a couple of months if I decide to run. If we come for the race, but plan to make a full week’s vacation out of it, would it be better to come the week before and fly home after the race or fly in on Friday and stay the week after the race? Thanks for your help!
Oh Lindsey I dunno! It depends on how you train and recover–if it was me, I’d put the vacation/recovery after the race, and train in my usual setting before it.
We are looking into visiting from Dec 31-Jan 10. I see that the marathons are happening Jan 7-10. How does it effect crowds? Which parks would you avoid each day?
Stacey you will see wild crowds through Jan 2. Things will then be pretty empty until Friday the 8th, when marathon folk clot up the parks a bit–and the roads more. Their crowding effect will be trivial compared to what you’ll see up to the 2nd.
We are thinking of going to WDW in October. You are forcasting low crowds but some of the other calendars I’ve seen are forcasting moderate to high. I’m really hoping for low crowds since our last trip to Disneyland was wall to wall people. How do you determine the crowd levels for the month?
Hi Kelly, you are on the 2016 crowd calendar– not sure if you mean October 2015 or October 2016. Either way, both years I only rate only half the month as low–the other half as moderate. No one else (that I know of) ranks weeks, and there’s no consistent definition of “low.” My “low” means I’d recommend that week to first timers who might never return with no hesitation–so long as they had a good plan, etc, of course.
Daily rankings will be much different, as they get averaged across my weeks. Disney’s October 2015 operating calendar is not out yet, but I can tell you now that the period from early September through mid-December is the most important all year for picking the right parks on the right days. That is, you’ll see once these hours come out big per-park differences in wait times, even though the overall week may be lower crowd.
In particular, avoid World Showcase at Epcot on weekends; avoid parks when they have extra magic hours; avoid MK on nights where it has late closes and shows the evening parade and fireworks, sandwiched between nights with 7p closes.
For more on the principles here, see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/04/30/crowds-and-walt-disney-world/ (Ignore the references to FASTPASS–that’s been replaced…)
Hi, our family is planning a trip in the second half of March ’16. which has been marked as very bad. is this because of ride closure, or crowds. We are looking at being around for 2 weeks so could time visits throughout the week. What are your thoughts?
Barrett, the weeks before and after Easter are reliably among the most crowded and highest priced of the year, and earlier March (except the first week) is almost as bad. You can make it work–and it will be easier if you have more days, as this gives you more FastPass+ and more early mornings.
Great site Dave. On a practical level, what is your guesstimate difference in ride wait times between a crowd level 1 week like 1/30 and a crowd level 3 week like 2/27. Are we talking just a few minutes per ride? 5? 10? More? For example sake, Figure waits on popular yet not headline rides like jungle cruise, haunted mansion, pirates, pooh etc. Thanks.
Pete, on average, just five to ten few minutes per ride.
Hi Dave, Use your site every year we go -so helpfull!!
Can i ask when exactly will you be doing the revised draft of the crowd calender 2016? We are planning on going late April/Early May 2016 (which looks ok from the above draft) have you any idea if this is likely to change by a large margin? We would love to start booking but wish to avoide US school closures to keep crowds to a minimum!
Thanks again for all your information your site provides.
Steve, from not so sunny England!
Hi Steve, and so glad the site is helping! I revise the crowd calendar in the summer–when the calendars of the 180 or so US school district I track are complete. (Some districts do calendars years ahead, some wait until June or later).
That said, the only weeks of 2016 I worry about changing much are in early April. Late April and early May are very stable and they won’t materially change.
What’s going on Feb 13th 2016 week that has the crowd estimate so high?
The week of Presidents Day is mobbed at Disney World every year, Melissa, as many NE school districts have the whole week off.
Hi Dave,
I am looking to take my kids to Disney for the first time next winter for a week. I had seen a couple of other sights list the last 2 weeks of Feb and first 2 weeks of March as generally lighter crowds. We had been looking at the last week of Feb, 1st week of March roughly, but was curious as to why the first week in March was so heavy? I just want to make sure I am making the right decision. I was trying not to do too early in Feb as I know there are a lot of elementary schools that do winter vacation in New England in early Feb. Thanks.
Jason, see this. One thing I have learned doing this site over the years is that kids have wildly different breaks, so you can’t predict crowds based on breaks in your own area. Hardly anyone is on break in early Feb, tons of people are in early March.
planning on going feb. 20 through the 27 based on your calendar hopefully those days are good!
Great dates, Vanessa!
Hey well we plan on going April 30th to the 7th what will it be like then and will they have promotions then
Heidi, crowds will be fine then, and I expect a room rate deal for then too.
Hello! We are planning a WDW trip for Jan 30th-Feb4th. It looks as if the crowd level is a 1 at that time, correct? Can you tell me which parks to AVOID during our vacation? Also, can you tell me which rides/attractions are scheduled to be closed for refurbishment those days? Thank you much for any information you are able to come up with!
Jenny, neither the refurbs nor the calendar is out yet, so I can’t tell you either. Refurbs may not be announced until December. The Feb calendar will be out in mid-August, and I can help you with parks to avoid then!!
Ok thank you! I will check back in with you in a few months 🙂
Dave,
Any ideas on when the Brazil tour runs through Walt Disney World this year? I think it may be an international dance competition? Each year we have been going to Disney one of the last few weeks of January. It is hit or miss whether we beat the influx on Brazilian teenagers. Do you know if they are just on holiday or if there is an event? I have tried to Google it, but I haven’t hit on anything.
Shannon, you will find Brazilians and tour groups at WDW year round, but particularly in December and January when they have their summer vacation.
Hi Dave,We visited WDW in 2013 for the first time from the UK. I followed the advice of another Touring Plan site and ended up with up to 120 mins wait for some rides and running around with one husband and two kids, 5yrs and 9yrs, for two weeks not really seeing the Magic. We are returning in October 2016 and are hoping for a more relaxed holiday that allows us to do everything and have time for family time. I’ve bought the book and every weekend I’m following the web sites. Your advise and Joss just seems to make sense. Sorry for my ramble but my question is when will the plans be out for next year. We land on the 27th October and leave on the 10th November. Also we are hoping to do the Mnsshp and Mickeys Xmas party, do you have touring plans for them. Thank you
Hi Vicki and I’m glad the site and book is helping! I won’t have any specific advice for October/November 2016 until Disney’s calendars for then come out–which should be in March and April 2016 respectively.
I don’t have touring plans for the two parties, but do have suggestions. See this and this.
Hi Dave,
I am thinking of coming to Disneyworld august 21 to September 4. We have three kids (10,16,17) and wonder when the best time to book is? Do you have any idea? I want to take advantage of the deals they have on right now (free disney dining) but for 2016. I am anxious to book now, but would it be better to wait? Or book now and ask for the discount later when they are published? Thanks!
Pauline, it doesn’t matter when you book so far as discounts go. When they are announced, you have to compete for the limited inventory whether or not you already have a booking. Book more than 180 days ahead to get the best dining selections–see this .
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