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A guidebook that I generally quite respect (except for some of its material on the resorts) recently warned visitors off Disney’s Caribbean Beach Resort based on its reader survey results that highlighted “transportation, food court, and distant lobby” as distinct issues.

The problem with such survey results, of course, is that they are often used to help choose among alternatives, when those responding to the survey aren’t actually comparing the alternatives, but rather reporting on a singular experience.

Your best bet for help in choosing among alternatives is to pay attention to survey results or reviews from people who have recently stayed in all the relevant choices—but of course, other than the reviews in the book I co-author and on this site, you simply can’t find those.

I’ve stayed at the traditional moderates 27 different times, so here’s my take:

• It is certainly true that the check-in building at Caribbean Beach is awkwardly distant, especially for those without a car, but it hasn’t moved recently…so there’s no real need for a new warning based on its location.
• The food court at Caribbean Beach isn’t materially worse than those at the other traditional moderates—and other than the simplification of both the check-out process and the menu at the food court at Coronado Springs (a change this particular guidebook missed, it seems, leaving in a reader comment about the now-disappeared “ticket stamping”), the food courts at the traditional moderates have not changed much recently either. (Port Orleans French Quarter’s food court is currently under refurb—we’ll see if anything interesting comes out of that.)
• And it is true that the sheer number of bus stops (seven) at Caribbean Beach is an annoyance. In terms of time wasted getting around a resort and stopping at all the stops, Caribbean Beach is the worst of the traditional moderates, with Port Orleans Riverside next worst, then Coronado Springs, and Port Orleans French Quarter best. But something that people sometimes miss in the discussion of the number of bus stops is that more bus stops can mean shorter walks within the resort. At Port Orleans Riverside, the longest walk from a room to a bus stop is more than a quarter mile; at Caribbean Beach the longest walk is less than half of that.

Moreover, it’s always possible that better management, or something, results in one resort of the same price class getting materially better bus service than another.

Demonstrating this requires comparative data, not survey opinions.

To make an illuminative stab at this because I am such an utter geek to help my readers make good choices, I spent four mornings in late August and early September sitting at bus stops in Port Orleans Riverside and Caribbean Beach timing the arrivals of 139 buses. (Sunday the 28th of August through Tuesday the 30th, and again on September 1; each resort was observed one morning from 8-9.30a and another morning from 8.30-10a.)

I then tossed everything but buses to the four theme parks and then calculated the time between arrivals for buses to the same theme parks. I analyzed the resulting data both in traditional ways (mean and standard deviation) and graphically.

The results of this limited sample show that waits for the next bus were largely similar at the two resorts for most guests, but in every way that they were not similar, Port Orleans Riverside had better service. When you add to this that there are fewer stops at Riverside, transportation on the days I sampled was clearly better at Riverside than at Caribbean Beach.

The mean wait between buses to the same theme park at Caribbean Beach was 13 minutes, with a standard deviation of 8.2 minutes. At Riverside, the mean wait was 12 minutes and the standard deviation was 6.6 minutes. As we will see in a minute, the longer mean wait and much larger standard deviation at Caribbean Beach were driven by several excessive waits.

Here’s the graphical depiction of waits at Riverside:

And at Caribbean Beach:

In each graphic the dotted line is the average interval between arrival times for buses to the same park, the red line the 50th percentile wait, and the gold line what percent of buses come in at 20 minutes or fewer.

You’ll note that the biggest difference was in the longer waits–at Riverside, almost 90% of arrivals were 20 minutes or fewer, and the longest interval was 25 minutes. Caribbean Beach saw almost twice as many buses with >20 minute waits, and its longest wait was a stinky 34 minutes.

Something I did not adjust for in my analysis was the effect of buses to the same park that came one right after another.

For example, during one period at Port Orleans Riverside, Magic Kingdom buses came by at 9.18, 9.22, 9.23, 9.44 and 9.45a, for intervals of 4 minutes, 1 minute, 21 minutes, and 1 minute. The average wait time among these four intervals was 6.75 minutes.

But practically speaking a bus that comes one minute after another bus to the same park is of next to no value, as the arrival rate of people at the bus stops means that no or next to no incremental guests will be served by the bus arriving a minute later. Treating the two one minute waits as though they did not help any incremental people, we get 12.5 minutes as the average wait—almost twice as long.

Note in the graphics how many buses came by with a five minute wait or less (20% of them at Caribbean Beach, and 25% at Riverside). Guests would be better served if these buses were re-routed before their first stop to whatever park was fourth on the list of most recent buses…

To illuminate the impact of this, I redid the waits showing the exact same arrival times, but a steady progression of buses to the four parks so that none was repeated before all four had been served.

Here’s the results:

The effect was to add wait time to the left sides of the curves and remove it from the right sides–essentially moving time from artificial short waits from the left side (artificial because few or none would benefit from them) to reducing waits on the right side where they actually created value for people. (t statistic = “Mister.”)

How about it, Disney?

The traditional moderates are the hardest to distinguish among for recommendations. Each is at the top of some important criteria and at the bottom of others.

This means that either you should not sweat the difference among them, or that you should deeply research them to find which is exactly the best fit for your family.

But one thing that has always been true is that the total Disney transportation experience is worst at Caribbean Beach. If that’s your single concern, then that guidebook is right, and you should avoid Caribbean Beach.

You’ll find a more nuanced discussion of the moderates in my guidebook, and if you want to deeply research them, my reviews of each begin at the following links:

• Caribbean Beach
• Coronado Springs
• Port Orleans Riverside
• Port Orleans French Quarter

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The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2017, the latest edition of the best-reviewed Disney World guidebook series, ever, has a new title, and a new way for purchasers to get free updates!

NEW TITLE MAKES VALUE TO RETURNING VISITORS MORE CLEAR

Even though we initially wrote the book (at the invitation of our publisher, Bob McLain of Theme Park Press) for first-time visitors, we’ve always known that it’s incredibly useful for returning visitors as well.

For example, the four key chapters that make up more than 80% of the book (Chapters 4 When to Go, 5 Where to Stay, 6 How to Spend Your Time, and 7 Where to Eat) are as valuable for returning visitors as they are for first timers.

Also really useful to returning visitors who have not been during the era of FastPass+ is the material on how to set up your My Disney Experience account and how to book your FastPass+.

So for 2017 we’ve dropped the word “First” from our title, which in prior editions was The easy Guide to Your First Walt Disney World Visit.

We have not taken out a word of advice for first timers, so the book is still a great choice for them. But dropping “First” from the title makes it a little more clear how helpful the book is to returning visitors as well.

GETTING FREE UPDATES OF OUR 2017 EDITION

Josh and I update the book two to four times a year, as enough important Disney World changes accumulate to require us to provide new guidance.

One of the reasons we’ve always made the Kindle version free (via Amazon’s MatchBook program) to people who bought the paperback editon is our hope that after these updates, Amazon will force through an update to the Kindle versions, so that everyone will get the latest version.

However, Amazon does these forced updates based on its own whims, and so far I don’t think any older Kindle editions actually got updated.

So for buyers of the 2017 edition, we have a new approach:

If people forward their 2017 edition Amazon purchase confirmation to us as instructed in the book, we will let them know on that email address how to get a PDF version of our updated book!

Here’s explicitly what the book says about updates:

Ok, that’s it for now. More to come on other changes in the 2017 easy Guide later! Meanwhile, buy the book, OK?

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From Kelly, Allison, and my other friends at Destinations in Florida!

If you book your vacation through them by clicking the link at the bottom,  they share a little with me, which helps pay the expenses of this site!

Are you planning your 1st (2nd or even 10th) visit to Walt Disney World? Are you beyond excited for Disney to release their 2017 Packages? Well Pixie Dust is in the AIR! Kelly B and Destinations in Florida have teamed up with Dave and yourfirstvisit.net to get you ready and excited for your 2017 vacation. Disney World shared the release date for the 2017 packages and prices…it is June 21.

We know you have a few weeks, but to get you excited about your visit with Mickey Mouse we created an exclusive VIP list for yourfirstvisit.net readers!

 You can be the first to get all of the 2017 Disney World package details and some freebies to get you excited. Sign up today for the yourfirstvisit.net 2017 Disney VIP List.

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This To-Do List is for the Nine Night variant of the FastPass+ 2016 Basic December Itinerary.  For To-Do-Lists for other itineraries, see this.

A. MORE THAN 180 DAYS BEFORE YOUR PLANNED ARRIVAL DATE

(Note that a good travel agent, such as Destinations in Florida, can do almost all of this for you, for free. If you use Destinations in Florida as you travel agent through a link for this site–like this one–then they share a bit of the pixie dust they get from Disney with me.)

1. Confirm your budget, planned dates, intended hotel, kids’ development and heights, and your transportation choice and its availability for your planned dates.

2. Make your plane reservations, if flying. Make any other needed transportation arrangements.

3. Create your My Disney Experience account here and add your family members to it

4. Set up your hotel and tickets. Call 407-939-7675 (preferred, because this allows you to tell the reservationist which building at your resort you wish to be in), or click here to use Disney’s online system.

• If you are following my itinerary, you want the hotel you’ve picked for nine nights, nine day, no hopper, no “water parks and more” tickets, the Dining Plan, and Disney’s Magical Express

B. 181 DAYS BEFORE YOUR ARRIVAL DATE

1. Login to your MyDisneyExperience.com account, click the “Things to Do” tab at top right, under Dining hit “Make Reservations,” and practice trying to reserve restaurants (hint: use the search box at the upper right).

This may well drive you crazy, but the site works better than it used to…and is likely the only way you can get your Cindy reservations done! (as the site opens up a new reservable day at 6a, whereas the phone reservation line opens at 7a).

2. Collect your planned restaurant reservations together. You will want to do them online in order of hardest to reserve first. This is how they are listed below.

C. EXACTLY 6am EST, EXACTLY 180 DAYS BEFORE YOUR ARRIVAL DATE

(For an 180 day calendar, see this).

1. Be on the restaurant website by at least 5:50am EST, and have your Cindy reservation all set up on the page. Keep refreshing, as you will be let in as soon as Disney’s system decides it is 6a.

2. Make as many of the following as you have patience for (try to get through at least Hoop-Dee-Doo Revue), in the exact order listed:

• Cinderella’s Royal Table Lunch (dining plan, two credits): Thursday at 11a or later if you can; earlier than 11 only if your sole option…
• Chef Mickey’s (dining plan, one credit) Second Saturday 6p.  Later is OK, but not a whole lot earlier
• San Angel Inn as Candlelight Processional Dining Package (dining plan, two credits): First Sunday 5.45p. Can be earlier but not later.
• Hoop-Dee-Doo Revue (dining plan two credits) First Monday 6.15p show. Earlier show is tow early, later show keeps you up later than you need to be
• Akershus (dining plan, (dining plan, one credit) Tuesday noon or a little earlier
• Crystal Palace (dining plan, one credit) around 1p Second Saturday. Earlier is OK, but not much later

For those you don’t make online, make them by calling call (407) WDW-DINE (939-3463)

3. Go to the site for Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party, and order tickets for your family for Tuesday

D. 60 DAYS BEFORE YOUR ARRIVAL DATE

1. Go to your MyDisneyExperience account at 7a and set up the following FastPass+

• First Saturday evening at Epcot: Book just one, Test Track, for 6-7p
• First Sunday at Epcot: Soarin’ 11a-noon, Living with the Land noon-1p, Turtle Talk with Crush 2p show
• Monday at Disney’s Hollywood Studios: Toy Story Midway Mania noon-1p, Star Tours 1-2p, Frozen Sing-Along 3.30 show
• Tuesday at Epcot: Frozen Ever After 12.30-1.30p, Mission Space 1.30-2.30p, Spaceship Earth 2.30-3.30p
• Wednesday at Disney’s Hollywood Studios: Voyage of the Little Mermaid noon-1p; Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster 4-5p, Tower of Terror 5-6p
• Thursday at Magic Kingdom: Book FastPass+ for Pirates of the Caribbean, Splash Mountain, and Big Thunder Mountain. Design the times for them around the time of your reservation for Cinderella’s Royal Table, and don’t set one for 2.30-3.30p, as you will need that time for the afternoon parade. (A FP+ 2-3p and/or 3-4p is OK, as you can use them at the beginning of the 2p window or end of the 3p window without interrupting your parade viewing.
• Friday at Disney’s Animal Kingdom: Kali River Rapids 1-2p, Rivers of Light (keep checking for its opening date and book your FastPass+ for it as soon as it becomes bookable), Kilimanjaro Safaris (latest available; you may later have to move it to book Rivers of Light)
• Second Saturday at Magic Kingdom: Seven Dwarfs Mine Train 2-3p, Peter Pan’s Flight 3-4p, Haunted Mansion 4-5p
• Second Sunday at Disney’s Animal Kingdom: Kilimanjaro Safaris 1-2p, Expedition Everest 2-3p, DINOSAUR 3-4p

2. Do online check in, requesting as you do special location points

3. Customize your MagicBands

E. NOTES ON PACKING ETC. BEFORE YOU LEAVE

1. Bring your MagicBands in your carry-ons

2. If you use Disney’s Magical Express, you do not need to collect your bags at the Orlando airport unless you arrive late in the evening/at night or are an international traveler. Disney will get them for you and, eventually, deliver them directly to your room. Your bags may arrive hours after you do; so, depending on the weather forecasts, have a carry-on with an appropriate change of clothes for Orlando weather on Saturday, as you will almost certainly go to Epcot on Saturday before your checked bags arrive.

3. Follow the instructions in the Magical Express packet you will receive in the mail regarding both tagging your bags pre-departure, and where to go at the Orlando airport to find your transport to your resort.

4. Bring a copy of your room reservation, confirmation numbers and any tickets for special events you may have received in the mail.

5. Pack breakfast utensils, as they are not always available in the gift shop: bowls, spoons, napkins

6. When you arrive at the hotel, look for the special “On-line Check-in” line, and get into it.

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I used to offer a detailed, multi-thousand word nine night version of my standard eight night Basic December Itinerary here.

Frankly, though, it took the same itinerary largely identically one day longer–to a second Monday–but shifted the material on Second Sunday from first thing in the morning to the afternoon, and made second Monday the travel day, with an optional park return first thing that morning.

So for simplicity, to have a nine night visit, do everything you see in the eight night itinerary and its To-Do List, except:

• Add a hotel night
• Change the Second Sunday FastPass+ times to later in the morning or the early afternoon.
• If you are going to use the option to return to a favorite park on the Second Monday morning, be sure to add a day to your tickets before Second Sunday
• If you are using the Dining Plan, add a table service meal. For more family dining, add Chef Mickey’s (mouse meet)at the Contemporary Resort on one of your Magic Kingdom days–e.g. Second Saturday for lunch –or Akershus (princesses in Norway) on one of your Epcot days, e.g. Tuesday lunch

(Note that all my itineraries labeled “Basic” are four the four weeks beginning the Saturday after Thanksgiving 2017. If you aren’t going one of those weeks, see Other Itineraries for alternatives the rest of the year, which are published about six months ahead.

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NOTE: THIS ITINERARY IS OUT OF DATE.  A REVISED VERSION FOR 2017 WILL BE OUT SHORTLY

This Walt Disney World itinerary is designed for the three weeks following Thanksgiving 2016.

It is a seven night variant of the Basic December 2016 FastPass+ Itinerary, with a Saturday arrival.

If you aren’t going one of those weeks, see Other Itineraries for alternatives the rest of the year, which are published about six months ahead.

You can enlarge the itinerary by clicking it. 

A detailed To-Do List covers all the step you need to undertake.

Specific instructions for each day of your visit are in the links:

• Saturday
• Sunday
• Monday
• Tuesday
• Wednesday
• Thursday
• Friday
• Saturday

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