Category — p. News and Changes

Disney World raised its ticket prices on March 12 for the rest of 2019. There’s been much silliness written since about the level of the increase by folks not so good at math, ranging from “prices increased 15%-30%” to “prices increased about 5%.” (For how Disney’s new-in-October-2018 date-based ticketing concept works, see this.)

In fact, the average price increase across the ten ticket day options for adult single park per day tickets for the period April 1, 2019 through December 31, 2019 was 7.9%. But of course no one buys an average ticket, and actual price increases vary quite a bit over the course of the 9 months remaining in 2019.

The following table shows by ticket length the average increase, minimum increase, and maximum increase for the period April 1 through December 31, 2019, compared to the prices that had already been in place for 2019.

A couple of things are worth noting. First, all lengths beyond one day had an average price increase higher than the average increase in one day tickets. This mathematically means that the discount for longer tickets, on average, is not quite so high as it had been before.

The second point worth noting is how high the maximum price increases are, ranging from 20% to 30%. A major piece of this is a big increase in the price of later December tickets, which you can see from this table, which shows maximum increases from 4/1 through 12/31 and then 4/1 through 11/30:

How prices were generally changed over the dates of the year begins to be clear in the next chart, which shows the percentage increase for every ticket length plotted against the first eligible day for that ticket.

There’s ten colored lines (one for each length), which makes it initially messy, but the lines aren’t random—you can see the patterning within them.

Here’s the same data on increases, but for just two ticket lengths whose use periods average out weekend effects, for more clarity.

Ticket prices are up most sharply in many of the popular break and holiday periods. This general pattern does not surprise me, as the initially-released range of high to low prices for the date-based ticket pricing model was, at about an 18% spread between the least and most expensive tickets, too narrow to actually much incent changes in people’s behavior and drive them to lower-priced dates.

Here’s the increase in one day tickets. These are important not because people buy them (hardly anyone does) but rather because the longer tickets are assembled as discounts off the sum of the one day tickets that their eligible use dates encompass.

Because of differential increases over weekends—which is why the last chart saw so many saw-toothed shapes—it’s a little easier to see what’s happening in one day tickets if you use a seven day moving average (a forward moving average in this case):

I’ve marked in this various holidays, and you can see that most—but not all—major price increases are related to holidays, beginning with Easter and spring break. There’s a couple of exceptions, at the beginning of October (but not Columbus Day week) and beginning of November—perhaps for Jersey Week??

Moving on to ticket lengths that are actually relevant to many people, here’s the new spread of prices over the period April 1 through December 31 for four of the ticket lengths, comparing prices to the lowest price in the same period.

You’ll see that the most expensive tickets in the depicted lengths are now 40% higher than the lowest prices of the year. In (unshown) shorter tickets, it is 45%. At this spread, ticket prices may actually start to shift people away from higher-priced periods and into less-expensive ones.

Also worth noting is that is that you see next to no increases in the period immediately after the new Star Wars land opens. For opening day (August 29—see this) and the 30 days following, price increases average about 2%–pretty much the lowest level of price increases across the year.

Simpler minds will conclude that this is because Disney intends to offer extra cost access options these dates, or that it expects low demand. People who actually get Disney’s new date-based pricing model will understand that Disney is trying through these lower prices to incent visits to an unfinished park during an unpopular time of the year to go.

The next major event on the ticket pricing front will likely be the release of 2020 ticket prices. There’s no precedent for knowing when this will happen. I’d guess at the latest it will be early summer, but it may be earlier, and frankly no one on the outside knows.

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On March 13, 2019 Disney World raised ticket prices for the rest of 2019. On average, prices for longer tickets went up about 7.5%, but the average masks much different changes some times of the year–for example, after Christmas.

I’ll start digging into the numbers shortly, but my partner Official Ticket Center will offer old-priced tickets through March 24th.

I’ll take me a bit to do the math–I have to enter more than 2,500 prices, after all–but Touringplans.com has a general post on the increase here, and more math here.

The math is overly averaged, so what happens your dates if you have not yet bought tickets and don’t use the Official Ticket Center while it is still offering the old prices will be obscure until I can do the real math, but is a helpful start.

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On March 13, 2019 Disney World raised ticket prices for the rest of 2019. On average, prices for longer tickets went up about 5%, but the average masks much different changes some times of the year–for example, after Christmas.

I’ll start digging into the numbers shortly, but my partner Official Ticket Center will offer old-priced tickets through March 24th.

I’ll take me a bit to do the math–I have to enter more than 2,500 prices, after all–but Touringplans.com has a general post on the increase here, and more math here. The math is overly averaged, so what happens your dates if you have not yet bought tickets and don’t use the Official Ticket Center while it is still offering the old prices will be obscure until I can do the real math, but is a helpful start.

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“Capacity for the parks, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and its experiences is limited. Access to the park, land and experiences may be restricted or unavailable depending on guest demand and other factors.” —The Disney Parks Blog 

STAR WARS: GALAXY’S EDGE TO OPEN AUGUST 29TH

On March 7, 2019 Disney announced that the new Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge land would partially open at Disney’s Hollywood Studios on August 29th. Both the August date and the partial opening were shockers.

The “partial” opening means that on that date, only one of the two rides being built here—Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run—will be available. The second ride, Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance, will open “later this year.” FastPass+ will be not “initially” be available for the ride, and the land will be open “during normal park operating hours…[and] will be available during Extra Magic Hours at Disney’s Hollywood Studios.”

The Disneyland version of Galaxy’s Edge will also open earlier than projected, also will have a partial opening with just Smuggler’s Run, and has different, more stringent operating and access restrictions than Disney World’s version has.

This post is about the implications of this early and partial open for guests before the land is fully open.

Here’s some of what I said nine months ago  about the full opening of Galaxy’s Edge:

Now we need to be clear here—no one actually knows what will happen, not even Disney. Part of the value of the partial opening is to create more information about what will happen during a “lower attractiveness” phase, when most of the infrastructure (like all the new roadways, the new bus stop, and the Disney Skyliner) and alternatives (like Slinky Dog Dash and Mickey and Minnie’s Runaway Railway) are in place, but the partial nature of the opening creates a Galaxy’s Edge that is less compelling to visit (at least for some.)

CROWDS WILL BE BAD—BUT NOT MAYBE AS BAD AS YOU THINK

The late August opening, the partial opening, and the earlier partial open at Disneyland will all play a part in moderating crowds to levels below what some might fear—especially after Labor Day and before October 6.

THE LATE AUGUST OPENING WILL LIMIT FAMILY VISITS FRAMED AROUND STAR WARS

I am still working on 2019 back to school dates, but my material so far—covering 11.3 million kids in about 200 school districts, with another 4 million kids yet to have their calendars announced–suggests that in the summer of 2019, as usual about 70% of US schoolkids will be already in school by the late August time the land opens—and 100% of kids will be back in school by the end of its first full week.

Disney World is loaded with non-family visitors, especially during the Food & Wine season—which I expect to kick off on August 30—but it is still predominantly a family destination. Kids in many jurisdictions can be pulled out of school, but this is hardest early in the semester.

As a result, while the Labor Day weekend will likely be the busiest such in Disney World history, I don’t foresee a lot of families to be adding trips in later September specifically to experience Star Wars, and I expect many who already booked September with the express hope of avoiding the opening to cancel. Galaxy’s Edge itself will be a hot mess, but the rest of the Studios and Disney World should be OK.

Things will change beginning around October 6, which is when the “fall break” season begins and many kids start getting school breaks ranging from three days around Columbus Day to two full weeks. Unless the second ride is open by then, things will settle out from this by later October.

THE PARTIAL OPENING WILL DISSUADE SOME FROM BOOKING UNTIL THE FULL LAND OPENS

Only one of the two rides will be operating at opening day. Much—perhaps all except its table service venue—of the rest of the land’s offerings will be open then too. So, depending on how much you value “the rest of the land,” something between 50% and 80% of the quality of the experience will be available to those whose visits come before the opening of the second ride.

So those whose money or time budgets allow only one visit in the near term to Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will defer their vacations until they can experience both rides. Thus, while Galaxy’s Edge will be a mess, it will not be as much of a mess as it would have been had the land entirely opened on 8/29.

THE EARLIER DISNEYLAND OPENING WILL DRAW OFF SOME HARD CORE FANS

Disneyland will be opening its version early as well, at the end of May, and although this is not confirmed, I also expect that its full offering (that is, including the second ride) will be open much earlier than the second ride is open at Disney’s Hollywood Studios–and likely even before August 29.

What this means is that until both versions are fully operational, all the incentives are for the hard-core Star Wars fan to go to California.

Now don’t get me wrong here—all of the basement bedrooms in Orlando will be empty starting August 29th. But the Disney World Star Wars fan boy crowd will not be as heavy after Labor Day as you might think.

CALIFORNIA MESSES, AND THE ABSENCE OF FASTPASS+, WILL PUT OFF MANY VISITORS, BUT EMH WILL HELP

The Disneyland version will open on May 31, and despite all the additional restrictions on access there, I expect that many visitors will not get the message, and that we will immediately hear many horror stories—traffic jams, full parking garages, park closures and extremely long waits. This will come largely from it being open first, and secondarily from the already high attendance and less forgiving infrastructure at Disneyland.

These stories will cause some to cancel their Disney World vacations, and dissuade others from spending much time at Disney’s Hollywood Studios.

Veteran Disney World visitors may also be put off by the absence of FastPass+ access to Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run. Access to the land and to the ride(s) here will be rationed–at least initially–the old fashioned way, by willingness to wait. FastPass+ will come to these rides someday, and at least some will delay their visit until that happens.

I do expect substantial Extra Magic Hour offerings, something like what we saw at Pandora–a couple of hours every morning and evening before and after something like either a 9a to 9p or 8a to 10p regular operating day (the shorter “regular” day provides more practical EMH opportunities).

Over time, many of the daily EMH time slots will be converted into extra-cost times to visit (“Early Morning Magic” and “Disney After Hours”), but I think that will happen after things have settled down a bit, possibly not even until 2020.

Daily morning EMH, if it happens, will keep those staying in settings not eligible for EMH from successfully employing the classic “rope drop” strategies—as the land will already be full when they are let in. So even without FastPass+ at 60 days, those staying on site, who can do EMH, will have an advantage at Galaxy’s Edge.

By the way, Galaxy’s Edge and Hollywood Studios will be particularly crammed on days Magic Kingdom closes early for parties. See this for the party schedule through October.

Also by the way, the best hotels to stay in for those who want to see Galaxy’s Edge are those that let you get to Disney’s Hollywood Studios without going on the roads—the Epcot resorts, from which you can take a boat or walk, and the Disney Skyliner Resorts (Caribbean Beach, Pop Century, Art of Animation, and, after it opens, Disney’s Riviera Resort) from which you can take a gondola to the park.

Kelly, the long-time travel agent partner of this site, can help you book your Disney World vacation–whether to avoid or participate in the opening of Galaxy’s Edge! Contact her using the form below:

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THE HILTON ORLANDO LAKE BUENA VISTA

Guests at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista are eligible for Disney World’s Early Entry program.

(Note that there’s three Hilton-flagged properties among the seven Disney Springs Resort Area hotels– the Hilton Orlando, and also the Hilton Buena Vista Palace and the Doubletree Suites by Hilton.)

The Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista offer rooms with a king bed, or with two queen beds, in a long mid-rise block.

The best features of the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista are its family-friendly baths, nearness to Disney Springs, and the broad range of strong amenities it offers.

Weaknesses include the absence of balconies–a few rooms by the pool have patios–and, for Disney Springs Resort Area hotels, relatively high prices. It shares with all the Disney Springs Resort Area hotels weak park transportation.

I’ve stayed at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista four times, most recently in July, and my full review has four pages:

• The overview of the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista you are reading now
• A photo tour of a standard two queen room at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista
• Amenities and dining at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista
• The pools at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista

ACCOMMODATIONS AT THE HILTON ORLANDO LAKE BUENA VISTA

Rooms with a king bed and rooms with two queens are available in the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista.

There are also some bookable views–e.g. a Disney Springs view (about a third of rooms here face the freeway, half the Wyndham, and a sixth Disney Springs).

The Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista is a major convention hotel, and as in all such hotels, multiple suite options are also available.

The bed side of Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista two queen room.

The divided bath includes a sink and closet area off the main entry hall, and then beyond them a full bath with another sink. This makes the room much more family-friendly than many other Disney Springs Resort Area options.  Among standard rooms in the rest, you’ll find divided baths only in the Hilton Place Lake Buena Vista and in Wyndham Garden rooms.

A photo tour of a two queen room at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista is here.

DINING AT THE HILTON ORLANDO LAKE BUENA VISTA

The Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista is distinct among the Disney Springs Resort Area hotels in having three table service venues.

Covington Mill is the most family friendly, and serves breakfast and lunch–including a character breakfast on Sundays.

Available for dinner are two other restaurants, Andiamo and Benihana.

There’s bars both indoors and by the pool, and snacks, drinks, and grab and go items are available in a shop near Covington Mill that is open 24 hours a day.

There’s also a Disney gift shop offering souvenirs, park tickets and such off the lobby, and a resort-wear shop near it.

There’s more on dining and the other amenities at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista here.

THE POOLS AT THE HILTON ORLANDO LAKE BUENA VISTA

The Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista pool complex is in the top rank among the Disney Springs Resort Area hotels.

It has two principal pools, a kids wading pool, a couple of hot tubs, and a pool bar. It perhaps is not quite as fun or interesting for kids as the pools at the Hilton Buena Vista Palace and the Wyndham, but is more comparable to those than any of the other Disney Springs Resort Area pool hotel pool offerings.

For more on the pools at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista, see this.

THEME PARK TRANSPORTATION AT THE HILTON ORLANDO LAKE BUENA VISTA

The Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista participates in a transportation program sponsored by all the Disney Springs Resort Area hotels. One group of buses serves the Hilton, Holiday Inn, B Resort, and Doubletree Suites, and another the other three hotels here.

Buses run about every thirty minutes, each serving two parks–so, for example, to get to Disney’s Animal Kingdom, you may have travel to the Magic Kingdom first.  Moreover, unlike the buses from Disney-owned resorts, Magic Kingdom buses drop off at the Transportation and Ticket Center, not the park itself, necessitating another transit, via monorail or ferry, to get to that park.

In addition to the theme park buses, buses to and from Disney Springs run through the evening.

On the important dimensions–frequency, and the time it takes to get to and return from the parks–the transportation system at the Disney Springs Resort Area is much worse than that at the Disney-owned resorts, but better than that at most off-site hotels.

Having your own car or a rental is a much better option. Self-parking at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista is $18/night and valet parking is $24/night. Parking at the theme parks is $25/day.

For more on transportation at the Disney Springs Resort Area hotels, see this.

PRICING AT THE HILTON ORLANDO LAKE BUENA VISTA

Pricing at the Disney Springs Resort Hotels is much less visible than that at the Disney-owned resorts, and multiple prices for the same room e.g. for non-refundable stays, stays by folk with AAA, etc. are common.  Discounts and deals are also common, and these hotels commonly show up on the various hotel deal sites.

Pricing for most of them is also obscured by mandatory “resort fees.”  Resort fees are a mandatory extra cost added every night of your stay, whether you like or not. I personally find mandatory resort fees a misleading and unethical practice.  A fee that is mandatory, and charged each night, should simply be rolled into the nightly room price.

The Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista resort fee is (after tax) $39.38 per night–tied with the Hilton Buena Vista Palace as the highest among the Disney Springs Resort Area fees.

Prices at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista (before any discounts you might find, but including resort fees and taxes) are generally higher than the average among the seven Disney Springs Resort Area hotels, and are typically comparable to those for a Disney-owned moderate resort.

For families looking for queen beds, lots of dining options, a nice pool complex, and other strong amenities, the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista can be a reasonable option, offering amenities somewhere between those of a Disney moderate and a Disney deluxe at a price commonly closer to that of a Disney moderate.

Kelly, the long-time travel agent partner of this site, can book your Disney World vacation at the Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista–or at any other Disney World hotel!  Contact here using the form below.

PHOTO TOUR OF A ROOM AT THE HILTON ORLANDO LAKE BUENA VISTA 

This review continues here.

MORE ON THE HILTON ORLANDO LAKE BUENA VISTA

• Overview and summary
• Photo tour of a standard room
• Dining and amenities
• The pool 

OTHER KEY PAGES FOR WHERE TO STAY AT DISNEY WORLD

• Where to stay–the Basics
• Where first-timers should stay
• Reviews of all the Disney World resorts, based on my 160+ stays in them

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Two new Disney World deals came out this morning.

One is a room-only discount and the other is Free Dining—the best-loved Disney world deal, out months before it usually is, and covering a longer period in the summer, but no dates—as of today—after September.

FREE DINING DEAL

Book through February 10, 2019

Valid for arrivals most nights July 5 through September 30, 2019

Package Includes

• Room and Theme park ticket(s) with a Park Hopper Option or Park Hopper Plus Option, for which you will pay full price
• Dining Plan (Disney Quick-Service Dining Plan with Value and Moderate Resort hotel packages; Disney Dining Plan with Deluxe and Deluxe Villa Resort hotel packages), which you will then get for free.

Among the hotels/rooms excluded from the free dining deal are Little Mermaid rooms at Art of Animation, All-Star Movies, Coronado Springs, Port Orleans French Quarter, and DVC rooms at Bay Lake Tower and the Villas at the Grand Floridian.

More on this deal is here.

ROOM ONLY DISCOUNT

Booking dates and valid travel dates:

• Valid for stays most nights April 28 through September 30, 2019
• Save 10-25% for travel April 28 to May 27, 2019 when you book through May 27, 2019
• Save up to 10-30% for travel May 28 to September 30, 2019 when you book through March 24, 2019

In general, savings rates are higher at more expensive and less popular hotels, and less at less expensive and more popular hotels. Not all hotels or room types are included

More on this deal is here.

Many families do great with the free dining deal, but smaller families in more expensive hotels should compare the room-only deal, as it may be the better choice. See this for more–it’s out of date, but still explains most of the key concepts and savings.

The long standing travel agent partner of the site, Kelly, can book your vacation, and figure out the best deal for you! Contact her using the form below.

KEY PAGES FOR WHERE TO STAY AT DISNEY WORLD

• Where to stay–the Basics
• Where first-timers should stay
• Reviews of all the Disney World resorts, based on my 160+ stays in them

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