Three Things You Need to Know About Free Dining
By Dave Shute
Last week I saw a somewhat comic set of posts flying by on Facebook—I’m not gonna link to the posts because their author is otherwise often reliable, and I’ve been known to write rather knuckleheaded stuff myself…so I won’t throw stones!
They were related to the prospect of free dining dates for later 2013 being released next week, and included the following (paraphrased) claims:
- “If you haven’t booked a trip and want free dining, book your room and then your dining now and then call to have free dining applied to your package”
- “People traveling after December should not expect to see free dining. It’s only happened once”
- “People staying in deluxes often/usually save more by using a room-only discount instead of free dining”
The first point is foolish, and the second two mostly wrong, so I thought I’d better post on the three things you need to know about free dining in 2013 after September!
3 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT FREE DINING
1. Forecasts are forecasts, not facts, and are sometimes wrong—either because the info they were based on was wrong, over-interpreted, or misunderstood, or because things just change.
One of the ways things just change is that the capacity meant to be allocated to a deal—either in the restaurants or in the Disney World hotels—gets booked up. So don’t book your dates now unless you are committed to those weeks whether or not free dining shows up!
The more people who book those dates in the restaurants and hotels before the deal, the more likely those dates will come off the free dining list! That’s what I suspect happened to early December—which was eligible on the free dining pin codes, but is not part of the current rumored dates…
“But we’re targeting a low-crowd week,” you protest. Doesn’t matter.
Hotel occupancy rates are not crowd calendars–the Disney hotels routinely sell out in low-crowd periods, if both prices are seasonally low (as they are for most of the rumored arrival dates for the free dining deal) and also a deal is offered on top of these low prices. That’s why they offer the deals…
So don’t book now…or we may lose those dates/resorts to free dining! Rather, get on the phone at 7a the day the deal comes out…
2. Don’t read too much into past patterns of discounts that have been shaped in response to the recession, especially if you read the past patterns wrong!
Disney’s discounting behavior changes in response to a changed environment… which is why there were no August weeks in this year’s hurricane season free dining.
Disney has done January-March free dining not, as claimed in the Facebook stream, once, but rather twice in the past few years (see this), but did not offer it in 2013.
This makes it less likely that Disney will offer free dining in early 2014—but not certain that it won’t!
3. If you plan to get the dining plan deal or no deal, room rate discounts at the deluxes will be a better deal than free dining not “often/usually” but rather sometimes, based on specific family and hotel circumstances.
You have to do the math, as your party size, ages, and the cost of your room are key variables that will drive which is better for you.
For example, standard rooms at the Polynesian, this site’s top-ranked deluxe and one of the three most expensive hotels at Walt Disney World, during the fall season are $501 per night on weekdays and $564 on weekends. A five night trip with two weekend nights would average $526.20 per night, and a 35% off room-only discount would then average $184.17.
At $58.66 per person ten or older as the cost of the dining plan, if there’s just two people in the Polynesian room ten or older, the room rate deal is better–even if there’s three kids younger than ten. But a family with three people ten or older and just one more kid will do better with the dining plan.
A five person family, with two kids ten or older, and one younger, would save almost $70/night by taking free dining…
The differences are starker at the less expensive deluxes. At the Wilderness Lodge, this site’s second mostly highly rated deluxe, and Disney World’s cheapest, nightly savings from the room only deal would be $131.81 (again at 35% off a standard room over the fall season, for a five night stay including two weekend nights).
Just two people 10 or older plus one younger kid would save more with free dining. Two parents, one kid ten or older, and one younger, would save on the order of $60 per night on free dining as opposed to the room rate deal.
A few years ago—when we routinely saw deluxe discounts of 40%, and free dining was about $20 less expensive per night for those ten and older, the room rate deals were often better. The combination of those two factors could add on the order of $75/night more to the spread between the two offers.
But those days are gone…
So those are my “three things you need to know about free dining.” What do you think people need to know?
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25 comments
Great analysis as always Dave. I’d disagree a bit with point 3 on RO discount vs FD at deluxes. Your analsysis assumes most people get the most dining value with the dining plan rather than out of pocket. I think the great majority are better off paying out of pocket or using TiW card. Only those that eat at a lot of character meals or expensive dinners really get value these days. So the comparison is really 30-35% off a deluxe vs what a family would have paid for dining if left to eat as they normally would. I think for most families, RO discount is still much better. No doubt there is a tipping point to FD when you have more “adult” eaters at a less expensive deluxe, but i think for the great majority of families, room only discount is still the way to go. Not to mention that the dining plan hampers you with more inflexibillity and the potential to lose out if all credits are not used.
Oh, great point Mike. My modeling assumed “if you plan to get the dining plan anyway.” So I’ve edited the post to make that clear.
With the dining plan now $20/person/night more expensive than when I started this site 5 years ago, I’m seriously considering dumping my recommendation that first-time visitors buy it…for many of the reasons you note!!! But TiW is, I fear, impractical for first time visitors without annual passes or DVC ownership…
Note: for those wondering what TiW is, see this: http://allears.net/din/dde.htm
Great, on-point free dining thoughts! Because families are so different, there is not one mold that will fit all, so I’m glad Disney gives choices. As a family of 2 adults, 2 Disney adults and 2 under 9, FREE Dining will always be the better deal for us, and many large families. In addition, I do agree with your consideration of not recommending the Disney Dining Plan to first time travelers, simply because, as you stated, of the price increase. Two days ago I added up what each person would order at every restaurant we have an ADR for, plus all counter service meals for our entire stay. I was NOT conservative with the numbers as we have 2 character meals, Ohana, BOG, and Liberty Tree for dinner, just to name a few. Most of the time, the higher price meals were chosen; I did exclude desserts. Grand total was $1,205.08. We would have paid $1,521.60 for the basic (plus) dining plan. So, the next time, if there is no free dining, we will choose to pay out of pocket; unless I totally missed something and screwed up my numbers…lol.
Hi Caralee and thanks for the comment! Unless you forgot taxes your estimates should be fine. The value of the dining plan (other than as a budgeting device) is sketchy and depends on how/what you would have eaten without it!
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Also tips for table service meals may factor in especially on a longer stay . Again not exactly part of the original post comparison but something someone might consider as it could cause extra expense. (Assuming that you might go to more expensive and more frequent table services meals with the dining plan than you would have without it)
Thanks, John!
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Thank you so much for all the information. We have been planning a trip in mid-October and aprreciate your updates greatly. I also have been greatly impressed with your calculators and explanations for discounts and rates. It is always so confusing and surprising, but you cleared it right up!
Thanks, Franey!! 🙂
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Dave,
I have traveled in 2011 to WDW, staying at POP, in late May-early June with free dining.
I have also traveled in 2012, staying at POP, in early February (when I got 30F) with free dining.
This year, 2013, I went to AOA in mid February without dining plan.
I have been chasing free dining and accomodating myself to those days, but I guess that was when offers were made quite in advance. For instance, my sister was staying in Pop in mid September 2010 when she saw a leaflet (one with a cat and a clock) about free dining dates for the remaining of 2010 and half of 2011.
I guess those days are all gone, dontcha think?
Tom, I’m still noodling on “what happens next.”
In 2014, Universal is opening its first new hotel in years, and then Harry Potter 2 opens at Universal Studios as well. At WDW in 2014, the mine train completes the Fantasyland Expansion, and MyMagic+ in theory keeps people more on site.
How do these all balance out in terms of WDW discounting to fill rooms? It hurts my head….
Well, now that you see it that way, on a bigger picture I mean, it may be an alternative to consider if HP2 boosts ticket sales for their own park.
Good luck hypothesizing Dave! 😉
ps: btw, you should have an option to tick if you want to get an email when your post is answered otherwise it gets complicated to remember where did I post my message!!!
Tom, I know…my software is antiquated, I need to get a new “theme” that supports a better commenting system…
Hi Dave. I live in Bogota,Colombia. I´m travelling with my husband and my two boys (5 and 6 years old) on October 2 ./2013 I was wondering if you could give me some advice about the best deal to pick (room or free dining).
Hi Carolina! There’s no way I can tell, right now. One needs to compare the two deals with exact info on your family size, ages, and the exact dates and hotel rooms you are booking, with the full details of the deals in hand–which won’t happen, I believe, until next week…
In general, unless your family is small or you are attending in the second half of December, free dining tends to be the better deal in standard rooms at the values and moderates, but for the deluxes, it’s highly dependent on the exact details.
The easiest way to do this, once the deals actually come out, is to call WDW reservations and have them run the numbers for you both ways…
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I got a pin from Disney for free dining in August. Will be using it the end of August. Have gotten several offers for free dining apart from announced times.
Cool, Scott!!! Are you willing to share the other dates in your offers?
OK – I am waiting just like so many others to see if the free dining will be announced for Nov23 since that is when we start our trip…I have a Disney Visa (love it!) BUT cannot find any info about where I will find a code on July 29th(?) so I can call in the AM. I see that people comment that the Visa site is often delayed as is the Disney site – so what is a girl to do, Dave?
I think it is too good to be true, but we are hoping, of course.
Have a great weekend,
Wendy
Heya Wendy, yes the Visa site often runs behind. (For others, it’s here: http://disneyrewards.com/offers )
My expectations is that the needed codes will be found here shortly after 7a: http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3141417&page=127 (The link is to a 127-page (and growing) disboards thread that was inspired by my first post on free dining here: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2013/07/15/disney-world-free-dining-for-the-general-public-to-come-out-in-early-august/)
On Monday after 7a, go to that thread, find the navigation buttons (top and bottom) and hit “last” or the last number. Then just page back til you find someone posting the codes…or someone saying it ain’t out yet!
Thanks!
3:42 AM in California – and I sit with phone in hand. All these rumors…wonder what will happen at 7:00AM on the East Coast.
Wendy, good luck! I sure hope this forecast is correct, or we’ll all owe you some sleep!
My kids stayed up (8 and 10!) and we are in the middle of a Disney movie marathon – it has been fun!
OK – I just spoke to a CM and she was very nice. She knew what I was about to ask…and said that it was not an early release. I questioned a bit more – and she said it was not an early release again. I asked if she thought getting up on August 1st would be worth it, and she said, “Yes.” She then reminded me that nothing was set or for sure, but she sounded like she knew what she was talking about. OK – another all-nighter for August 1st.
After reading so much about FD I am now a little confused but intrigued by Wendy’s post from this morning about her conversation with a cast member. Is Aug 1 FD possibility for Disney Visa cardholders only?
She did not comment on Disney Visa. I would not read that into her comment. Who knows what will happen on August 1st…but I will be up and calling!
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