Winter at Walt Disney World

By Dave Shute

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OVERVIEW

Winter at Walt Disney World—loosely defined as November through February–is the most variable of seasons.

The weather is literally variable—cooler, and with typical daily highs ranging from the low 60s to the 80s. Tornadoes can be an issue during this period. See this for more.

Crowds are both near their lowest—in January between New Years and the Martin Luther King day weekend—and at their highest, over the week that includes New Years Eve.

Prices are the lowest of the year twice—between the end of Thanksgiving weekend and mid-December, and from early January through mid-February. They also hit their peak of the year in winter, over the week that includes New Year’s Eve.

WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS DURING WINTER

Crowds range over the period from near lowest of the year to the absolute highest—but in a predictable way:

The first week of November is moderately crowded
November crowds after this week are low until the weekend before Thanksgiving week
Thanksgiving week is crowded
The three weeks beginning the Saturday after Thanksgiving are not crowded
The week including Christmas is the second most crowded of the year, and
The week including New Year’s Eve is the most crowded of the year.
The week after New Years through the end of February are not crowded with two exceptions: the week that includes President’s day is quite crowded, and the week that includes Martin Lither King day is moderately crowded, especially that weekend itself.
This same period of January-February is the most common time for rides to be closed for rehab—which is why this site recommends against it for first-time visitors.
Crowds are particularly low in early January.

See When to Go to Walt Disney World, 2010 Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World, and/or Predicting Future Crowds at Walt Disney World for help figuring out when to go.

WALT DISNEY WORLD WINTER PRICING

Winter is most complicated time for Walt Disney World resort hotel pricing, with prices ranging from the lowest of the year to the highest and back again.

Prices begin in November 20-30% higher than the lowest of the year, and have a minor uptick to this at Thanksgiving.
They drop to the lowest level of the year the Sunday after Thanksgiving, and remain at this low level until Christmas week nears.
Near Christmas, they jump 50-60%, and New Years week another 10-20%, hitting the highest level they are at all year.
The week after New Years they drop again to the lowest level of the year, and remain at this low level until mid-February—with a slight kick up over Martin Luther King day weekend.
In mid February—President’s Day weekend—they go up 40-50% compared to the lowest of the year, and remain at at least this level until after Easter.

Click the image (a Pop Century Resort example) to see the impact of these price increases. (When open, click again to enlarge.) (This image is from 2010 Walt Disney World Price Seasons.)

WALT DISNEY WORLD WINTER WEATHER

Weather during this period becomes appreciably cooler until around January 1, and then begins slowly warming up again.

Median daily highs drop from around 80 on November 1 to the low 70s in early January, and return to around 80 by the end of February.

Variability increases over the same period. For example, on January 1, 20% of the time the high temperature is 60 or below, and only 20% of the time is it 80 or over. Sixty percent of the time highs range from 60 to 80.

By the end of February, highs are 80 or better 50% of the time–as they are at the beginning of November.

Tornadoes can be an issue during this period. See this for more.

Click the image (from Weather and When to Go to Disney World) for more on temperatures. (When open, click again to enlarge.)