Disney World Crowds: Spring Break 2014
By Dave Shute
DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL 2014
DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES
Walt Disney World Spring Break crowds are governed by two and a quarter factors:
- Public school Spring Break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter
- The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, and
- The quarter factor, the date of President’s day. Later President’s Days (which can range from February 15 to February 21) tend to make the first part of March better
An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter spreads the first two factors out, yielding some good early March and early April weeks.
Easter 2014, on April 20, is very late in the possible range. President’s Day 2014, on February 17th, is in the middle of its possible range.
As a result, 2014 Spring Break crowds at Walt Disney World will be
- Fine the last week of February and the first week of March,
- Very rough the weeks beginning March 8, 15, and 22
- Better the week beginning March 29
- Fine the week beginning April 5,
- Horrible the week of April 12
- Bad, but not horrible, the week beginning April 19
- ..and back to fine the week beginning April 26
2014 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS
Although more and more school districts are moving away from an Easter-centered Spring Break, the plurality of kids still have the week before Easter off, and, in years without a late Easter, the next biggest group has off some or all of the week following Easter.
As a result, the single biggest factor determining better and worse Spring Break weeks at Walt Disney World is the date of Easter–which can range from March 22 to April 25.
A later Easter has a couple of different effects: first, it spreads out the dates of breaks for school districts that don’t frame their breaks around Easter, and second, if particularly late, will push districts that typically take the week after Easter off into the week before Easter instead, to keep from compressing their May academic calendars. We see both these factors in 2014.
An earlier Easter has the opposite effects. Districts that traditionally try to take the week after Easter off will be able to do so, and districts that don’t base their calendars on Easter will be largely compressed into a couple of March weeks.
(The compression point partly comes from only just so much March to go around, but also from the fact that such school districts don’t like taking the week before the traditional Easter break off, as it will lead into a set of political discussions (“If we could take that week off, why not slip it a week and take before week of Easter off? What do you have against Easter??”) that they don’t want to revisit.)
The date of President’s Day–which can range from February 15 to February 21–also has an effect. Because many districts both have a spring break and also take the week of President’s Day off, the later President’s Day is, the better early March will be–as parents avoid taking their kids out of school the weeks after a long President’s Day break.
The effect of the various dates in 2014 is to spread most 2014 school spring breaks into five weeks: those beginning March 8, March 15, March 22, April 12, and April 19.
ACTUAL 2014 SPRING BREAKS
The chart above illuminates this.
It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 180 of the largest relevant US public school districts.
(For how the database is built, see this. The two holidays–President’s Day and Easter–are in red. Click the image to enlarge it.)
President’s Day week will be its usual mess, with a 2014 crowd ranking of 10/higher. Crowds will start to show beginning the Thursday before and remain high through the 22nd.
Next to no kids are on break between the week after President’s Day and March 7. I rate the week beginning February 22 3/low crowds. The week beginning March 1 is rated 4/low-plus crowds. Both of these are recommended weeks.
The weeks beginning March 8, 15 and 22 have a lot of kids on break, and even more visitors coming to take a break from the snow. I rate the week of the 8th as 10/higher crowds, and the next two weeks as 9/high crowds.
The week of March 29 shows a lot of kids on break, but almost 80% of the relevant districts in my sample have another long break at another time in the spring of 2014. This, combined with fewer snow visits as April emerges, lead me to give at crowd ranking of 5/moderate-minus.
As is typical, the week before the week before Easter has hardly any kids on break. So the crowd ranking for the week beginning April 5 is 3/low. This is also a recommended week.
The week before Easter, beginning April 12, will be just horrible. I’ve rated this week 11/highest crowds in my 2014 crowd calendar. Many districts that normally break the week after Easter are, because of the late Easter, breaking this week instead. Disney broke attendance records this week in 2013–I expect it to do so again this week in 2014.
The week after Easter, traditionally a mess, looks better than usual in 2014–again, because of break dates changing to earlier with the late Easter. I’ve rated crowds that week (beginning April 19) as 8/high-minus.
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106 comments
Hello Dave,
Our Disney World trip is scheduled for April 22-27, 2014. I tried rescheduling after realizing this was the week after Easter, but other dates didn’t work for my party. We are traveling with 6 and 4 year old boys. We are planning for the worst but hoping for the best. Realistically, if we are at Magic Kingdom as soon as the park opens, how many rides should we be able to get in before 1hr or longer wait times develop? Thanks!
Alice are you staying at a WDW hotel–and thus able to use morning extra magic hours?
Yes, we are staying at Contemporary.
My heart is broken. I just purchased plane tickets for my family, including two boys 7 and 4, for April 15-22. In our area all the schools are done with spring break the week before. We wanted to visit my not-so-well grandmother and flights where cheaper so I blindly purchased. Are there any attraction that wont be a nightmare. Maybe sea-world? My older son has Asperger’s Syndrome and they offer a schedule time card for people with disabilities, but you still wait the same amount of time. I don’t know why I figured Easter Day would be a safe bet. Ahhh.
Hi Melissa, I’m so sorry. Everything will be wildly crowded everywhere with the crowds who get the week befroe or after Easter off…
Good morning Dave. Since we are staying at Contemporary, we should be able to utilize extra magic hours. If we are there for this rope drop, realistically, how many rides should we be able to get in before 1hr or longer wait times develop? Thanks.
Hi Dave,
My family and I are coming down to Disney March 14-19 I’m very nervous after reading some of the comments here. How bad are we talking on crowds? My kids have no idea that were going, they wont know until the day we leave. Is this going to be a 2 hour wait on everything??
Nora, arrive at the park well before the parks open, ride first thing some rides that will build long lines later, and book your FastPass+ for late-morning/early afternoon. Following those steps, you should be OK.
Alice, if you are at the park entry well before opening, your first 90 minutes should be fine–and on morning EMH days, your first two hours. Long waits won’t start building til later in the morning. Target your FastPass+ for 11a or later…
Hi, im heading over from Montana are the dates 4/14-4/15 ok?
Hi Crystal! You should be fine through the 11th. Massive crowds build starting the 12th.
Hi Dave!
We are planning a trip to Disneyworld March 19 – 22. It will be teenagers and adults. What should we plan to do first? We want to maximize our time. Thank you!
Hi Ceila, it’s a little hard to advise on such a short trip. At those ages, you likely will want a day each at the Magic Kingdom, Epcot, and Hollywood Studios. See this for ride prioirites https://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/03/09/the-comprehensive-guide-to-walt-disney-world-rides-and-attractions/ and see Josh’s Cheat Sheets for one-day itineraries: http://www.easywdw.com/category/cheat-sheets/
Hello, I like this page, my family and me are staying for spring brake week at tropical palm resort, how is the place? We are three adults and three kids 7, 10 &13 starting tue-thur, what would u recomend to do first and which
ticsets to buy, and if the hoop pass is recomended…please recomend one park per day…girl and twoo boys (10,13)…thank u very much!!
Diana, I don’t know anything about that hotel, and I don’t know when your spring break is, so I can’t help much…tell me your arrival and departure dates and I can help!
Hi, Dave! Thanks for all the info! We’ve been to Disney a few times, but we nailed the timing each time before. This year we just found out we have Spring Break to travel, and were thinking of possibly Discovery Cove, Sea World, maybe the water park, and then 2 or 3 days at MK, Epcot, and probably Holleywood Studios. Do you think this is a wise choice, and if so, which days would you visit where? We have Easter weekend through April 25th to be there. Our 40+ inch tall 4-year-old son and 7-year old daughter might be too young for patiently waiting in the lines that week….. No idea what Spring Break lines are really like. I was initially comforted that your calendar didn’t say “horrible,” but still maybe a bad choice? Thanks for your help! Our budget & the pricing for different days at D.C. Is a factor.
Hi Angela, I can’t really comment on the Sea World options or waterparks, as I don’t track them closely.
For the Disney parks, focus on the last days of your trip, which will be much better than Easter weekend through the Weds after.
If you are staying at a a WDW hotel, use FastPass+ to book the stuff most important to you. If you aren’t staying at a WDW hotel, see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2014/03/09/staying-off-site-and-want-to-reserve-fastpass-in-advance-book-dining/
Thank you soooo much! We are spending a day at each park, and I will pass along your info to the rest of the group. All 95 of us! It is the high school band competition.
Hi we are planing a short trip to Orlando from March 25 to march 28. Do you think it will be to crowded? Last tume we went from january 1 until January 12 and it qas impossible b specially the first week of this year…. Thank you
Joana, yes it will be crowded, but not nearly as bad as the beginning of January!
Hi Dave, I am so glad I found your site. I haven’t been to Disney since I was a kid (25 years ago), I am taking my 2.5 year old and 8 month old. Originally planned on April 14 and 15. I saw this page and realized that wasn’t smart. I also have the option to go on the later part of the following week (april 24th and 25th – thurs and Friday). Do you think this is a smart switch or will both times be crazy busy and I wont know the difference? Thank you!!!
Hey Brian! I’m glad you found it too! The late Easter means fewer kids than usual will be off the week after, so the 24th and 25th, while not marvy, will be much better than the 14th and 15th!
We are heading down on March 31 – April 5, staying at fort wilderness cabins any advice?
Sarah, how old are the kids, and have you been before?
HEY WOULD IT BE OKAY IF WE CAME APRIL 1ST OR WILL IT BE TO CROWDED
Katness, April 1 will be wildly crowded…
Hi Dave, My husband wants to take our twin girls who will be three in May before they turn three and he’s thinking sometime in April but not the last week because he can’t take off of work that particular week. We went just him and I before we had kids about 4 years ago and we went right before Easter break and it was so nice and not crowded but I remember the park workers saying that “next week when Easter lets out the crowds will double!” I can’t remember when we went so I’m trying to see what week is the best to go and avoid the out of schoolers as we have toddlers and I’d like to go when the majority of kids are IN school to help beat down as much of the crowds as possible. He also thinks that they get in free or something before they are 3 so he is really pushing to go before then. I’d like to go in October when the weather is good and the kids are in school…but he’s pushing for April.Help! lol
Hi Emily! In 2015, aim for an arrival date 4/11 or later. See this for more: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2014/09/16/april-2015-at-walt-disney-world/
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