Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

2022 DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS

Walt Disney World spring break crowds are typically governed by two and a quarter factors:

• Public school spring break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter but vary more than you might think, and into which every year I put a ton of time
• The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, but is harder to forecast, and
• The quarter factor, the date of President’s Day (which can range from February 15 to February 21). Later President’s Days tend to make the first part of March better

An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter can spread the first two factors out, some years yielding some good early March and early April weeks.

Easter 2022, on April 17, is late in its possible range. President’s Day 2022 is at the end of its possible range on February 19. As a result of this and some anomalies in break schedules, my latest analysis suggests largely rough crowds March 12 through April 23, 2022–although some weeks are better than others.

More specifically, 2022 spring break crowds at Walt Disney World will be

• Bad Presidents Day Week
• Better but still rough the week beginning February 27th
• Much better, especially Sunday to Wednesday, the week beginning March 5
• Very bad the week beginning March 12th
• Better but still rough the weeks beginning March 19th, March 26, and April 2nd–the best among these being the week beginning March 26
• Very bad the weeks beginning April 9 and April 16
• Fine after April 23 until Memorial Day weekend

2022 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS

Although more and more school districts are moving away from an Easter-centered Spring Break, the plurality of kids still have the weeks before Easter or following Easter off.

As a result, the single biggest factor determining better and worse Spring Break weeks at Walt Disney World is the date of Easter–which can range from March 22 to April 25.

A later Easter has a couple of different effects: first, it can spread out the dates of breaks for school districts that don’t frame their breaks around Easter but also don’t have a fixed break calendar, and second, if particularly late, sometimes will push districts that typically take the week after Easter off into the week before Easter instead, to keep from compressing their May academic calendars.

An earlier Easter has the opposite effects.  Districts that traditionally try to take the week after Easter off will be able to do so, and districts that don’t base their calendars on Easter will be largely compressed into many of the same later March and early April weeks.

The date of President’s Day–which can range from February 15 to February 21–also has an effect. Because many northeastern districts both have a spring break and also take the week of President’s Day off, the later President’s Day is, the better later February and early March will be–as parents in these districts avoid taking their kids out of school the weeks right after a long President’s Day break.

2022 sees some anomalies on top of this.

• First, almost all of Florida and Texas have break the week beginning March 12
• Second, I’m not seeing quite the drop off in demand the week after Easter often associated with a later Easter, for at least two reasons. First, this is an “earlier” later Easter, and second in 2022 the week after Easter corresponds with the week of Patriot’s Day, a common vacation week for many New England schools.

As a result, the worst weeks of spring break 2022 will be the weeks of March 12th, April 9th, and April 16th.

Often a later Easter results in a good early April week, and also a better than average week after Easter. However, in 2022 I’m not seeing either a good early April week nor a particularly good week after Easter.

ACTUAL 2022 SPRING BREAKS

The chart above illuminates this.

It’s based on data from a weighted sample including 270+ of the largest relevant US public school districts. 15.3 million kids–about a third of US school kids–are in the database, and they are weighted based on propensity to go to Disney World.

Weekends are in black, except Easter, in red. Mardi Gras and President’s Day are also in red.

Aggregated spring break calendars illuminate times when families with kids can particularly easily be in Disney World, but not their propensity to be there. Propensity factors range from the desire to get away from snow and ice to the willingness that more knowledgeable Disney World visitors may show to simply take their kids out of school—especially if doing so will avoid higher crowds on other dates. They also tell us little about people with no school age kids in their groups.

Can we get a hint of Disney’s own insights into propensity for people to visit from its own pricing patterns? Well, yes, but it’s not as straightforward as you might think.

TICKET PRICES AS A GUIDE TO SPRING BREAK 2022 CROWDS

Disney World’s current ticket pricing model, which presents different ticket prices for different days, is intended to a. push people from higher priced periods to lower prices periods to level out demand and improve experiences during what would otherwise be even higher-crowd periods and b. capture some value from increased demand from those people who go during higher priced periods anyway.

Thus in a profound sense ticket prices are a proxy for a demand calendar, which is similar to, but not quite the same as, a crowd calendar (the difference between the two comes from elasticities).

There are some clear anomalies in ticket pricing compared to school break calendars. First, the week of February 12–the week before President’s Day week–has higher prices than school breaks can argue for (this weekend is also more widely blocked out in Disney World’s annual passes than President’s Day weekend is). Also seeing higher ticket prices than underlying school breaks would suggest is the week of March 5. In contrast, prices are lower than school breaks would suggest the weeks of 2/19 and 4/16.

HOTEL PRICES AS A GUIDE TO SPRING BREAK 2022 CROWDS

Disney also varies hotel prices over the year (and much of the year, even over the week), principally by using different levels of rack rates, and also on top of that sometimes additional discounts for specific dates.

But hotel prices, while being like ticket prices broadly correlated with crowds, especially in Disney’s lower-priced hotel offerings, are also not a perfect crowd calendar.

First, hotels have a fixed capacity in a way that parks don’t, and also a very different cost structure (with very few variable costs), so the business goal is different—it’s to maximize prices that also maximize hotel utilization. There is thus much greater payoff to running the hotels, via pricing, at about the same very high occupancy rate year round.

Second, unlike the parks, there is a broad range of substitutes for the Disney hotels—and with the expansion of the former, now canceled, 60 day FastPass+ and EMH access perks in 2018 and 2019 to the rest of the on-property hotels, matched by their eligibility for the current Early Entry program, some substitutes are much better choices than they used to be. So it is as valuable to compete to fill rooms from guests who would stay at non-Disney resorts as it is to shift demand among the Disney hotels in time. In fact, it may be more valuable to compete for non-Disney property guests, as this keeps money out of the pockets of competitors, and reduces their ability to fund enhancements.

Finally, the different hotel classes see starkly different seasonal competition. The deluxes in particular compete with non-Disney hotels that see a ton of convention and meetings business much of the year. When the convention and meetings business collapses every summer (smart meeting planners don’t book conventions and meetings in the summer in Florida), many more rooms are available to the tourist trade—and prices at this whole class of hotels collapse.

The values, in contrast, don’t compete for this business, and their demand cycle is driven by family vacations. This is why Disney value resort prices in later July 2022 are 30-40% higher than the lowest of the year, while deluxe prices those same dates are just 5-10% higher.

Actual Disney World hotel prices tell a third spring break story, which doesn’t quite align with either with the story told by kids on spring breaks or the story told by tickets.

The highest priced weeks are those before and after Easter, as consistent with spring breaks but not tickets.  However, the week of March 12 is basically the same as the weeks before and after, the week of President’s Day, and the week of April 2–mismatching both ticket and break patterns. And the week of 3/27 sees lower prices than either schools or tickets would signal…

(It doesn’t matter to the analysis, but in the chart, green is All-Star Sports, lighter blue is Art of Animation Little Mermaid, darker blue Wilderness Lodge, redder orange Beach Club, yellow-orange Port Orleans Riverside, and gray Polynesian Village.)

I’ve run my Disney World crowd forecasts for spring break 2022 multiple different times using different weights among the informational contributions of school calendars, ticket prices, and hotel prices.  Most results come in within a pretty tight band of forecasts.

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DISNEY WORLD CROWDS FROM LATER DECEMBER 2021 TO EARLY JANUARY 2022

Although we don’t yet know how Disney World’s new park reservation system will effect holiday crowds in late 2021/early 2022, Disney World typically sees its highest crowds and prices of the year in the later third of December and the beginning of January, in the weeks around Christmas and New Year’s Eve.

This is for a pretty basic reason: kids are out of school then. However, not every school district has the same break schedule.

In 2021, as always, there’s more kids out the week between Christmas and New Year’s than before or after.

However, because of the Saturday Christmas, in 2021 there’s hardly any kids out the week before Christmas week.

Crowds will be massive at Disney World by December 18, 2021, and will be at their worst between 12/24/2021 and 1/2/2022. Things then return quickly to low levels, and holiday crowds should be gone by January 4, 2022. [Read more →]

2022 THEME PARK TICKET PRICES AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

I’ve color coded the start dates of the various base ticket lengths in Disney World’s date-based ticket pricing system to indicate less and more expensive ticket dates in 2022, compared to prices in all of 2022.

The prices I show are pre-tax, per ticket day, and rounded to the nearest dollar.

In what follows, compared to other dates for the same ticket length

• The more and the darker the green, the better
• The more and the darker the red, the worse.

Dates with black text on a white background are everything else–you can think of them as “typical” or “average” for that ticket length. The technical details on how I color coded are at the end of the post.

I begin with an overview of the year see you can see the flow of 2022 price colors in one spot, and then move to two-month calendars.

The general pattern is the same as always: more green in the typical semester–beginning months or January, early February, later August, and September, more red during the concentrated school break periods of spring break, Thanksgiving, and the Christmas/New Years holidays.

If you compare 2022 colors to 2021 colors, you’ll note that while the rough calendar of reddish and greenish periods is the same as 2021, there are fewer total red dates in the fourth quarter of 2022, likely linked to the absence of a 50th anniversary kick-off in 2022.

JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 2022 DISNEY WORLD TICKET PRICES

MARCH AND APRIL 2022 DISNEY WORLD TICKET PRICES

MAY AND JUNE 2022 DISNEY WORLD TICKET PRICES

JULY AND AUGUST 2022 DISNEY WORLD TICKET PRICES

SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER  2022 DISNEY WORLD TICKET PRICES

NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER 2022 DISNEY WORLD TICKET PRICES

TECHNICAL DETAILS OF COLOR CODING

For each ticket length:

• Ticket prices approximately in the bottom 10% have darker green fill and black text, with the very lowest bolded
• Ticket prices approximately in the next lowest 10% have a lighter green fill and black text
• The next approximately 10% of prices has white fill and green text
• Dates with prices approximately in the 70th to 80th percentile have white fill and red text
• Prices approximately in the 80th to 90th percentile have a light red pinkish fill and black text
• Prices in roughly the top 10% for the year have a darker red fill and black text, with the very highest bolded
• Every other price in between has black text and white fill.

Note that my work is based on the rounded per-day prices Disney publishes. As a result, the “10%” breaks are rarely exact. Prices shown are pre-tax.

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2022 RESORT PRICE SEASONS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The material below shows Walt Disney World resort hotel price seasons at different times of the year in 2022.

Resort prices can be almost twice as high during some periods as they are at others. The information on this page helps you identify lower and higher cost periods.

Ticket prices also vary by date. Much of the time, you’ll find higher ticket prices at when resort hotel prices are also higher, but there are nuances to this, as the hotel market is more competitive, and for deluxes in particular, are affected by both the tourist and convention markets. 2022 Disney World ticket prices are here.

In the below, I compare 2022 hotel prices over the year for each hotel class to that class’s lowest price of 2022, its “value season” in parts of January and February.

Grouping of dates is based on “price seasons,” a grouping tool Disney World no longer makes public, but which can be identified analytically, and named (sorta) based on past practices. Disney charges based on the actual price of the actual nights, so if your visit straddles price seasons, you’ll pay the prices of each price season.

The charts average prices over the next seven nights, by arrival date.  This eliminates what would be otherwise be incomprehensible bumpiness from Thursday/Sunday and/or Friday/Saturday upcharges. For exact prices by night by room type by date, see MouseSavers.com here.

2022 DISNEY WORLD RESORT PRICE SEASONS: VALUE RESORTS

The lowest prices of the year–the value season–1/2 through 2/9/2022, except:

• January 6-8 5-15% higher from RunDisney event than lowest comparable three day period
• January 15-17 10-15% higher for MLK holiday weekend than lowest comparable three day period

Regular season prices 2/11 through 2/16 25-35% higher than the lowest of the year

Presidents Day holiday prices 2/18 and 2/19 15% to 25% higher than lowest comparable three day period

Spring season prices 2/20 through 2/27 40-50% higher

Regular season prices 2/28 through 3/3 25-35% higher

Spring season prices 3/4 through 3/26 40-50% higher

Regular season prices 3/27 through 4/7 25-35% higher

Easter holiday prices 4/8 through 4/21 60-75% higher

Spring season prices 4/22 and 4/23 40-50% higher

Regular 2 season prices 4/24 through 5/26 25-30% higher

Memorial Day holiday prices 5/27 through 5/29 35-45% higher

Summer season prices 5/30 through 8/6 30-40% higher except

• 4th of July holiday prices 35-45% higher

Summer 2 season 8/7 through 8/20 20-25% higher

Value 2 season 8/21 through 9/10 10-15% higher except

• Labor Day holiday prices 9/2 through 9/4 15-25% higher

Fall season 9/11 through 10/22 25-30% higher except

• Columbus Day holiday prices 10/7 to 10/9 35-45% higher

Fall 2 season 10/23 through 12/1  15-20% higher except

• Jersey week prices 11/3 through 11/5 20-25% higher
• Thanksgiving prices 11/19 through 11/25 45% higher

Fall 3 season 12/2 through 12/8 20-35% higher

Holiday season 12/9 through 12/15 45-55% higher

Holiday 2 season 12/16 through 12/25 70-80% higher

Holiday 3 season 12/26 through 12/31 75-55% higher

2022 DISNEY WORLD RESORT PRICE SEASONS: MODERATE RESORTS

The lowest prices of the year–the value season–1/2 through 2/9/2022, except:

• January 6-8 5-10% higher from RunDisney event than lowest comparable three day period
• January 15-17 5-10% higher for MLK holiday weekend than lowest comparable three day period

Regular season prices 2/11 through 2/16 20-25% higher than lowest of the year

Presidents Day holiday prices 2/18 and 2/19 20% to 25% higher than lowest comparable three day period

Spring season prices 2/20 through 2/27 25-30% higher

Regular season prices 2/28 through 3/3 20-25% higher

Spring season prices 3/4 through 3/26 25-30% higher

Regular season prices 3/27 through 4/7 20-25% higher

Easter holiday prices 4/8 through 4/21 40-50% higher

Spring season prices 4/22 and 4/23 25-30% higher

Regular 2 season prices 4/24 through 5/26 15-20% higher

Memorial Day holiday prices 5/27 through 5/29 25-30% higher

Summer season prices 5/30 through 8/6 10-20% higher except

• 4th of July holiday prices 15-25% higher

Summer 2 season 8/7 through 8/20 15-25% higher

Value 2 season 8/21 through 9/10 10-20% higher except

• Labor Day holiday prices 9/2 through 9/4 25-35% higher

Fall season 9/11 through 10/22 20-30% higher except

• Columbus Day holiday prices 10/7 to 10/9 30-35% higher

Fall 2 season 10/23 through 12/1  20-30% higher except

• Jersey week prices 11/3 through 11/5 25-30% higher
• Thanksgiving prices 11/19 through 11/25 30-35% higher

Fall 3 season 12/2 through 12/8 20-30% higher

Holiday season 12/9 through 12/15 35-40% higher

Holiday 2 season 12/16 through 12/25 55-60% higher

Holiday 3 season 12/26 through 12/31 60-65% higher

2022 DISNEY WORLD RESORT PRICE SEASONS: DELUXE RESORTS

The lowest prices of the year–the value season–1/2 through 2/9/2022, except:

• January 6-8 10-20% higher from RunDisney event than lowest comparable three day period
• January 15-17 5-15% higher for MLK holiday weekend than lowest comparable three day period

Regular season prices 2/11 through 2/16 20-30% higher than lowest of the year

Spring season prices 2/18 through 2/26 30-50% higher

Regular season prices 2/27 through 3/3 20-30% higher

Spring season prices 3/4 through 3/24 30-50% higher

Regular season prices 3/25 through 4/2 20-30% higher

Spring season prices 4/3 through 4/9 30-50% higher

Easter holiday prices 4/10 through 4/21 40-55% higher

Regular 2 season prices 4/22 through 5/26 20-25% higher

Memorial Day holiday prices 5/27 through 5/29 25-35% higher

Summer season prices 5/30 through 6/30 10-15% higher

4th of July holiday prices 7/1 through 7/3 15-20% higher

Summer 2 season 7/4 through 8/18 5-10% higher

Value 2 season 8/19 through 9/15 0-2% higher except

• Labor Day holiday prices 9/2 through 9/4 10-55% higher

Fall season 9/16 through 10/6 15-25% higher

Columbus Day holiday prices 10/7 to 10/9 25-35% higher

Fall 2 season 10/10 through 12/1  15-25% higher except

• Jersey week prices 10/28 through 11/2 30-35% higher
• Jersey week 2 prices 11/3 through 11/5 30-40% higher
• Thanksgiving prices 11/19 through 11/25 10-15% higher

Fall 3 season 12/2 through 12/8 20-30% higher

Holiday season 12/9 through 12/15 30-35% higher

Holiday 2 season 12/16 through 12/25 40-60% higher

Holiday 3 season 12/26 through 12/31 65-85% higher

OTHER KEY PAGES FOR WHERE TO STAY AT DISNEY WORLD

• Where to stay–the Basics
• Where first-timers should stay
• Reviews of all the Disney World resorts, based on my 160+ stays in them

My friends at Destinations in Florida, the long-time travel agent partner of this site, can book your Disney World vacation at any Disney World hotel!  Contact them using the form below.

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OVERVIEW: THE BEST TIMES IN 2021 AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

Most years, this site has recommended arriving at Walt Disney World one of the first three Saturdays after Thanksgiving.

However, in 2021, I expect that these weeks will be too crowded for me to recommend them, from a combination of the draw I expect of Disney World’s 50th anniversary, and vacations being deferred until late 2021.

Presented below are my draft rankings of all the weeks of 2021 in order of best to worst times to visit Disney World. These rankings are designed for first time visitors who do not know whether or not they will return.

For visitors on a return trip, less concerned about ride closures or the peak of the hurricane season, the later January, early February, later August, and September weeks would be ranked much higher.

These rankings assume that you follow sound touring plans and pick the right parks to visit on the right days–an especially big issue during the party season in the last third of the year, which I hope we will see again in 2021.

The rankings are also in calendar order on the image.

These week rankings are based on my draft 2021 Disney World Crowd Calendar, Disney World’s 2021 calendar of ticket prices and Disney World’s 2021 calendar of hotel prices.

Other factors are key as well–especially the ride closure season and hurricane season in particular. Most years the Christmas season is also a key factor for recommendation in late November and early December, but my expectation of high crowds throughout the period leads me to not recommend any weeks during it in 2021.

RECOMMENDED 2021 WEEKS AT DISNEY WORLD, RANKED IN ORDER

The ten recommended weeks that follow are my current draft of the best weeks to visit Walt Disney World in 2021.

For the first time ever, summer weeks are in my list of recommended weeks–and in fact, hold the top three places! I don’t factor in the misery of heat and humidity that you will almost always find at Disney World from mid-May into October.  If this lousy weather is important to you, look at weeks 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10.

The top three weeks all share a combination (relative to the rest of 2021) of forecast lower crowds, lower ticket prices, and (in total compared to other recommended weeks), lower hotel prices. (Note that none of these is “lowest”–the very lowest crowds, very lowest hotel prices, and very lowest ticket prices happen at times I don’t recommend for first time visitors who may never return.  See the chart for when those occur.)

• 1: 7/10/21
• 2: 6/5/21
• 3: 6/12/21

Weeks 4 through 7 are very strong weeks. All are in the late April/early May period after spring breaks are over.  Crowds and ticket prices are low, but hotel prices are a bit higher at the moderates and deluxes than in weeks 1-3.  The weather typically is much better than the summer as well, especially if you pick the April or early May options. (weeks 5 or 7)

• 4: 5/8/21
• 5: 5/1/21
• 6: 5/15/21
• 7: 4/24/21

Weeks 8 and 9 are also in the first half of the year, have crowds and hotel pricing similar to weeks 4-7, but differ from weeks 4 through 7 in having higher ticket prices. The April date will have better weather, and the possibility of a wider possible experience depending on how COVID operational changes emerge over the spring:

• 8: 4/17/21
• 9: 2/27/21

Week 10 is the last of the recommended weeks.  It is similar to other recommended April and May weeks, but has higher prices at the value resorts, and the first part of it may see a crowd hangover from the week after Easter.

• 10: 4/10/21

This completes the weeks in 2021 that are recommended for first-time visitors to Disney World who may never return.

2021 WEEKS I’M NOT SO KEEN ON

Weeks 11-24 all have forecast moderate crowd levels, with different ticket prices, hotel prices, and weather, but are outside the rode closure and peak hurricane seasons.

I don’t particularly recommend moderate-crowd weeks for first time visitors, but with good plans they are quite manageable if you have to pick one, and are fine for returning visitors.

Weeks 11-13 are the lowest crowd weeks among this moderate group, and also see lower prices among the moderate and deluxe resorts. They also share lousy hot and humid weather.

• 11: 7/24/21
• 12: 7/17/21
• 13: 7/31/21

Weeks 14-16 are the best of a group that sees somewhat higher–but still moderate–crowds compared to weeks 11-13:

• 14: 1/2/21
• 15: 6/19/21
• 16: 7/3/21 (busier over first weekend from 4th of July, better after)

Weeks 17-20 have similar forecast crowds to weeks 14-16, but hotel and ticket prices are higher:

• 17: 5/22/21 (busier over second weekend from Memorial Day, better before)
• 18: 2/20/21
• 19: 6/26/21 (busier over second weekend from 4th of July, better before)
• 20: 5/29/21 (busier over first weekend from Memorial Day, better after)

Weeks 21-23 are during the normally busy spring break season, but I am forecasting them at moderate crowds because of COVID attendance limits.  They have higher hotel prices than the last group of weeks.

• 21: 3/6/21 
• 22: 3/20/21
• 23: 3/13/21 

Week 24 has similar crowds but higher prices.

• 24: 2/13/21

THE PEAK HURRICANE SEASON WEEKS

Weeks 25-32 have one thing in common: they occur during the peak of the hurricane season. Hurricanes are rare and even more rarely affect a Disney World vacation, but for first-timers who may never return, why not just avoid the risk? For returning visitors, though, the low-crowd weeks that can be found among this group can be wonderful times to visit.

These peak hurricane season weeks are ranked in order of first crowd levels, and within the same crowd level prices. (I include only low and moderate crowd weeks in this group–there are some high-crowd October weeks in the peak hurricane season, which are covered lower on the page.)

Weeks 25 and 26 have my forecast lowest crowds of the year, as well as the lowest ticket prices of the year and generally low hotel prices:

• 25: 8/21/21
• 26: 8/28/21 (busier at end from Labor Day)

Weeks 27-29 have slightly higher crowds and ticket prices than weeks 25 and 26, and a mix of hotel prices which I use to rank among the three:

• 27: 9/4/21 (busier at beginning from Labor Day)
• 28: 9/11/21
• 29 9/18/21

Weeks 30 and 31 have slightly higher crowds and ticket prices:

• 30: 8/14/21
• 31: 8/7/21

Finally week 32 is the only the moderate-crowd weeks in this hurricane group. It will be better early in the week, and worse later in the week as 50th Anniversary crowds build.

• 32: 9/25/21

2021 WEEKS TO AVOID AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

There’s two groups of weeks to avoid in 2021: high crowd weeks and weeks when some rides are often closed.

The first group, ranked 33-47, should be avoided because of crowds that may range from challenging to unbelievable.

Partly due to COVID protocols limiting crowds early in the year, and partly due to Disney World’s 50th Anniversary likely increasing crowds October and later, the shape of high crowd weeks in 2021 is very different than it has been in recent years.

The only high-crowd weeks I am forecasting for the first nine months of 2021 are the two weeks that include Easter–those beginning March 27 and April 3, 2021. But every week beginning October 2nd and later I have forecast as a some sort of high crowd week.

See the table above for exact rankings within these weeks.

The final group includes the January and early February weeks when rides are often closed for repair or refurbishment—weeks 48-52.

Some of these weeks have among the lowest crowds and lowest prices of the year. However, this is the peak time for ride closures at Walt Disney World, especially the January weeks. See the table above for exact rankings within these weeks.

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2021 CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The chart lower on the page shows my current draft forecasts for 2021 crowds by week at Walt Disney World. I explain how I built it at the end of the post.

2021 will be an interesting year at Disney World, with COVID-related capacity restrictions dominating crowds early in the year, but after that new attractions opening, old attractions re-opening, and Disney World beginning its 50th anniversary celebration later in the year.

[Read more →]