Category — a. When to Go to Walt Disney World

DISNEY WORLD 2014 SUMMER CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World summer crowds are governed by two factors:

• Public school summer break calendars, which have start and end dates more varied than you’d think
• The beginning of the peak of the hurricane season, in later August

Pretty much all kids are off all of July. As a result, July is the busiest summer month, and during it, the weeks shaped by 4th of July travel the busiest week.

Later July is also the traditional South American winter break.

However, in 2014 the FIFA championships in Brazil June 12 to July 13 may absorb many soccer-mad South American fans’ vacation budgets, leading to a little less Disney World visitation in the winter break.  I haven’t adjusted my crowd calendars for this, as the parks will still be plenty mobbed! But later July might be a bit better than forecast.

Varied dates for when summer breaks begin means June can start well but then build quickly to high crowd levels.

August has the opposite pattern, beginning with high crowds, but, through the combination of a trickle turning to a flood of back-to-school dates, and savvy travelers avoiding the peak of the hurricane season, it ends quite un-crowded.

Summer school calendars have been evolving to earlier August starts and as a result earlier June releases.  This has made early June less good, and mid-late August, better, than in prior years. My 2014 forecasts reflect this.

Families that can only visit in the summer (for example, school teachers) should go as early in June or as late in August as their schedules permit. [Read more →]

DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL 2014

DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES

Walt Disney World Spring Break crowds are governed by two and a quarter factors:

• Public school Spring Break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter
• The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, and
• The quarter factor, the date of President’s day.  Later President’s Days (which can range from February 15 to February 21) tend to make the first part of March better

An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter spreads the first two factors out, yielding some good early March and early April weeks.

Easter 2014, on April 20, is very late in the possible range. President’s Day 2014, on February 17th, is in the middle of its possible range.

As a result, 2014 Spring Break crowds at Walt Disney World will be

• Fine the last week of February and the first week of March,
• Very rough the weeks beginning March 8, 15, and 22
• Better the week beginning March 29
• Fine the week beginning April 5,
• Horrible the week of April 12 
• Bad, but not horrible, the week beginning April 19
• ..and back to fine the week beginning April 26

2014 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS [Read more →]

DISNEY WORLD CROWDS FROM LATER DECEMBER 2013 TO EARLY JANUARY 2014

Disney World usually sees its highest crowds and prices of the year in the later third of December and the beginning of January, in the week that includes Christmas, and the next week that includes New Year’s Eve.

This is for a pretty basic reason: kids are out of school these weeks.

However, not every school district has the same break schedule.

In 2013/2014, more kids are out Christmas week than New Year’s week, but there’s still plenty enough on break New Year’s week to wildly crowd the parks…

SCHOOL BREAKS AND DISNEY WORLD CROWDS [Read more →]

Over the weekend, I finished up and posted the revised–and, barring typos–final versions of the 2014 Disney World Crowd Calendar and 2014 Weeks to Visit Ranked in Order.

Material like this is the most popular stuff on this site.

I publish initial forecasts about 15 months before the respective year begins, and then, with Disney’s final price seasons and my analysis of public school calendars in hand, revise it the summer before.

I’ll be publishing more on how specific parts of each were built over the coming weeks, but for now, the only big change was downgrading the week beginning March 29, 2014, which I formerly had as a “recommended week.”

This week will be more crowded than I had thought in the draft material–I had had it as 3/low, it’s now 5/moderate-minus–and in turn its week ranking has shifted from 14th best of the year to 17th best of the year.  While it’ll still be an OK week, this change is enough to knock it out of the “recommended weeks.”

Besides the details promised above, still left to do this summer are the 2014 “Cheat Sheet” and “Week Picker.”  (See this and this for the 2013 equivalents.)  And after that I’ll start working on the 2015 forecasts!!

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FALL BREAK CROWDS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD?

One of the things you’ll see now and then on blogs and discussion boards is the claim that “fall breaks from school crowd Walt Disney World.”

“Fall breaks” are multi-day school holidays before Thanksgiving, and if material, would have an effect on Disney World—because Disney World is most crowded when it’s easy for kids to go.

If you check the facts, though, you’ll find that fall breaks are both uncommon and scattered across October and early November—other than Jersey Week and the Columbus Day weekend. [Read more →]

2014 RESORT PRICE SEASONS AT WALT DISNEY WORLD

The material below shows the different resort price seasons at Walt Disney World at different times of the year in 2014.

Resort prices, however, are almost twice as high during some periods as they are at others.

(For 2015 prices, see this, and projected 2016 prices, this.)

2014 DISNEY WORLD PRICE SEASONS

[Read more →]