Geeky Details Behind Forecasts for Spring Break 2011 At Walt Disney World

OVERVIEW

(Update: you can find specific forecasts for Spring Break 2011 at Disney World by clicking this link.)

I started digging into Easter and Spring Break analysis as work in preparation for the release of 2011 Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World, Ranked in Order.

2011 has a couple of interesting calendar features.

One is that Christmas Eve and New Years Eve are both in the same week–both are Saturdays. This means that the week starting Saturday December 24, 2011 is gonna be a real zoo at Disney World.

Second is that Easter is unusually late. It occurs on April 24, 2011, as late as it has happened since 1943. I did a fair bit of research to estimate the effects this would have on March 2011 attendance at Walt Disney World.

Some of that research is reflected in this post.

GEEKY DETAILS

 Analysis of 22 years of monthly hotel occupancy data suggests that the timing of Easter has less of an impact on Walt Disney World March vs. April crowds than one would think.

An early* Easter does pull guests from April into March, but a late Easter seems not to pull guests from March to April, but rather to make both March and April each a little busier than they typically are, but in a highly patterned way.

This is because there are three different drivers of Walt Disney World March/April attendance.

One is Easter. Many, many schools have breaks the week before or after Easter. Easter, though, has two effects: it attracts families to the weeks before and after if they have no other options for when to go, or are not aware of the massive crowds, but it also repels families who know about and want to avoid the issues it presents.

Second is the middle-latter part of the month of March, which is appealing to families from colder climates for a number of reasons: it represents a great time to break from northeastern winters, is a time when Orlando’s weather is becoming more predictably warm, is well-spaced for a break in the k-12 school year, and can be matched to college-aged kids’ spring break period.  Moreover, many southern schools don’t have a long Easter break, but rather a spring break in later March.  This looks like it will largely be March 12-20 in 2011.

The final driver is the dates of college spring breaks. This date has a small, but real, effect. (Small because college kids would typically rather go elsewhere than Walt Disney World, and go wherever that is with others than their families.) This period typically peaks in the second full week of March, but will shift to a double peak, then and a week later, to align better with a March Easter.

(See this for how all these effects shook out in 2010.)

So if Easter is early—March 23 or a few days later, all factors combine for a heavy mid March on, some people are drawn from April, and April weeks won’t show any particular peaking. The very beginning of March, however, will be fine.

If Easter is late—e.g. April 15 or later—March will not lose much attendance, as northeastern visitors will reckon that they can come in March and avoid the Easter peak.

If Easter is very late, as it will be in 2011, e.g. April 21ish or later, then there will be good weeks not only at the very beginning of March—which is always the case—but also at the beginning of April, in between the spring break and Easter peaks.

(Update: you can find specific forecasts for Spring Break 2011 at Disney World by clicking this link.)

*Easter can be as early as March 22 and as late as April 25. Recently, the earliest Easter was March 23 in 2008, and the latest April 23 in 2000. Easter in 2011 will be April 24—as late as Easter has been since 1943.

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD