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(For an update on the material below, which is now out of date, click here!)

UPDATE ON WALT DISNEY WORLD’S FANTASYLAND EXPANSION PROJECT

Recent news has cast into doubt the Fantasyland expansion announced by Disney last year (and detailed here.)

Jim Hill (of JimHillMedia) first commented on the possibility here.

He noted that the Pixie Hollow development was being delayed, and that everything other than The Little Mermaid: Ariel’s Undersea Adventure and the Be Our Guest restaurant was being revisited, with the goal being to make the Disney World expansion more appealing to guests of all ages.

MORE ON CHANGES TO THE FANTASYLAND EXPANSION PLANS

Late last week, Jason Garcia at the Orlando Sentinel published a story based on an interview with Walt Disney Parks and Resorts Chairman Tom Staggs confirming the reconsideration—but not any of the details.

Garcia quotes Staggs as saying “We took a hard look at it amongst a number of us and said, ‘Can we make the appeal broader? Can we make it even better?’ ”

Rumors circulating about attractions new for Walt Disney World in 2012 or later include, besides the Little Mermaid ride noted above,

• “Something big” in the Frontierland section of the Magic Kingdom
• A new country at Epcot’s World Showcase
• A new roller coaster at Disney’s Hollywood studios

WHAT’S GOING ON AT THE WALT DISNEY WORLD?

Many think the reaction here is to the success of the Wizarding World of Harry Potter (see  an overview of the Wizarding World, and links to reviews, here).

That’s part of the story…but only a part.

Harry Potter is a threat—but not in the ways most people think it is—and it is also a lesson.

Harry Potter’s success, in the short term, is good for Walt Disney World.

It presents another reason for people to come to Orlando, and the vast majority of trips to Orlando include visits to Walt Disney World.

The real threat to Disney from Harry Potter comes not from Harry Potter itself (himself?) but rather the deeper knowledge people gain of Universal Orlando from visits to Harry Potter.

Universal Orlando is currently optional in most people’s itineraries, and a half-day at Harry Potter won’t cut much into Disney’s business.

Rather, half day visits to Harry Potter will grow Disney’s visits, as people drawn to Orlando for Harry Potter experience Walt Disney World as well.

But if greater familiarity with the theme parks at Universal Orlando leads them to become an even greater part of tourist itineraries beyond Harry Potter—and one could easily spend 3-4 days at Islands of Adventure and Universal Studios—that will hurt.

So that’s the threat—that a visit to Universal Orlando shifts from optional to essential, and grows over time from half a day at Harry Potter to 3-4 days in its parks.

What’s the lesson? That a new set of experiences, built around a franchise, can really punch up attendance.

Based on all these facts, and the swirl of rumors, here’s my bet:

• The Little Mermaid ride and Be Our Guest open in 2012
• A revamped version of the rest of the Fantasyland expansion opens in 2013, including not only princesses–as per the current plan–but also Disney Villains: Captain Hook, Scar, Maleficent, etc. As part of this, I could see an updated and technologically enhanced Fantasmic being moved from the Studios to the Magic Kingdom
• Something new opens in 2013 in Frontierland, based on an attraction already operating at another Disney theme park outside of Orlando
• A new roller coaster, themed around one of the Marvel Comics characters that Disney acquired in 2009, opens in the Hollywood Studios in 2014,* and
• A new country, without a major ride, opens in Epcot in 2013 or 2014

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR FIRST TIME VISITORS?

Not a whole lot…partly because it’s all speculation! Even the opening year of the Little Mermaid ride in 2012 is subject to slippage. Don’t necessarily wait for one new thing or another, but rather go the best time for you and your family.

*Universal retains exclusive rights east of the Mississippi to some of the Marvel characters…but not to all of them. See this for more.

MORE ON WHEN TO GO TO WALT DISNEY WORLD

• For when to go to Walt Disney World, see this
• For the next best dates, see this
• For the best and worst times to visit, see this
  • For 2010 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
  • For the 2010 Week Picker App, see this
  • For 2011 weeks to visit, ranked in order, see this
• For forecasting crowds at Walt Disney World, see this
• For seasonal pricing at Walt Disney World, see this
  • For 2010 price seasons, see this
  • For 2011 price seasons, see this
  • For projected 2012 price seasons, see this
• For weather at Walt Disney World, see this

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