Disney World Crowds in 2013: Spring Break 2013
By Dave Shute
DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES
Walt Disney World Spring Break crowds are governed by two and a quarter factors:
- Public school Spring Break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter
- The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, and
- The quarter factor, the date of President’s day. Later President’s Days (which can range from February 15 to February 21) tend to make the first part of March better
An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter spreads the first two factors out, yielding some good later March and early April weeks.
Easter 2013, on March 31, is early in the possible range. President’s Day 2013, on February 18th, is in the middle of its possible range.
As a result, 2013 Spring Break crowds at Walt Disney World will be fine the last week of February, iffy the first week of March, and bad from March 9 through April 6, with the peak crowds (rated 11 on my 2013 crowd calendar) happening the weeks beginning March 9, March 23, and March 30.
2013 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS
Although more and more school districts are moving away from an Easter-centered Spring Break, the plurality of kids still have the week before Easter off, and the next biggest group some or all of the week following Easter.
As a result, the single biggest factor determining better and worse Spring Break weeks at Walt Disney World is the date of Easter–which can range from March 22 to April 25.
A later Easter has a couple of different effects: first, it spreads out the dates of breaks for school districts that don’t frame their breaks around Easter, and second, if particularly late, will push districts that typically take the week after Easter off into the week before Easter instead, to keep from compressing their May academic calendars. We saw this in 2011.
An earlier Easter has the opposite effects. Districts that traditionally try to take the week after Easter off will be able to do so, and districts that don’t base their calendars on Easter will be largely compressed into a couple of March weeks.
(The compression point partly comes from only just so much March to go around, but also from the fact that such school districts don’t like taking the week before the traditional Easter break off, as it will lead into a set of political discussions (“If we could take that week off, why not slip it a week and take before week of Easter off? What do you have against Easter??”) that they don’t want to revisit.)
The date of President’s Day–which can range from February 15 to February 21–also has an effect. Because many districts both have a spring break and also take the week of President’s Day off, the later President’s Day is, the better early March will be–as parents avoid taking their kids out of school the weeks after a long President’s Day break.
The effect of the various dates in 2013 is to compress 2013 school spring breaks into three weeks: those beginning March 9, March 23, and March 30.
ACTUAL 2013 SPRING BREAKS
The chart to the right illuminates this.
It’s based on data from a weighted sample including almost 175 of the largest relevant US public school districts.
(Click it to enlarge it; when it opens, click it again to enlarge it more.)
More kids are on break the week before Easter than any other week; the week after Easter and the week beginning 3/9 are the next highest break weeks. I’ve rated each of these 11/highest crowds in my 2013 crowd calendar.
Next to no kids are on break between the week after President’s Day and March 10. I rate the week beginning February 23 2/lower crowds. This is a recommended week. The week beginning March 2 is rated 7/moderate-plus crowds.
The week beginning March 16 has many fewer kids on break than the three weeks rated highest/11. However, because of the snowbelt effect, I’ve rated it 10/higher crowds. It may turn out better than this…but I wouldn’t bet on it!
153 comments
Louiseshunk@gmail.com Hi Dave, I want to send my 17 year old son to Disney spring break for 3 nights. He will be with 3 friends. They are good kids. ( We parents want them in a safe contained place) Will they see other 16-17-18 years olds vacationing for spring break? They worry it is only for kids.
Louise, I’m not really sure, as I try to avoid the place over spring break! Sorry to not be much help…
Lamentablemente nuestra fecha en Disney es del 13 ( al mediodia) al 21 de FEBRERO…sabemos que seran días complicados y no nos gustan las muchedumbres. Necesito por favor un consejo, pienso en MK y IOA….que son los parques más populares…tengo el 14 y 15 antes del feriado…y pensaba en Epcot el domingo 17…pero no se a donde ir el 16, 18, 19 y 20…estoy DESESPERADA, fue un cambio de fecha de último momento por problemas laborales, mi idea inicial era ultima semana de ENERO…y ahora estoy atrapada en el dia de los presidentes….AUXILIO…..que hago??????
Can anyone translate this for me?
Unfortunately our days at Disney are from the 13th mid-day to 21 February. We know that these are complicated days and we do not like crowds.
Unfortunately our dates at Disney are from the 13th mid-day to February 21st. We know that these days are complicated days and we do not like crowds. I need some assistance, I am thinking of magic kingdom and IOA which are the most popular parks. I have 14th and 15th prior to the holiday and I was thinking of going to Epcot on Sunday the 17th. However, I do not know where to go on the 16th 18th 19th and 20th. I’m desperate. I had to change my dates for work reasons. My initial idea was the last week of January. And now I am stuck with the Presidents’ Day holiday. What do I do?
Ginette, thanks so much for the translation!!!
Crowds will begin to build as early as the 15th. I’d do the afternoon and evening shows at MK the 13th–on your arrival day, IOA the 14th, MK the 15th and 16th. Epcot will be a better choice the 18th than the 17th, partly because there’s no other good park the 18th. On the 17th either HK or HS would be an OK choice. On the 19th avoid Epcot, on the 20th avoid AK, and on the 21st avoid MK.
On each day except for your arrival day be at the turnstiles well before the park opens, see rides that quickly build long lines first, then use FASTPASSES to work through the rest of the day…
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Above is my translation. 🙂
Hi Dave! This is an excellent site! I am taking my 12 year old daughter to Florida from the uk for our first ever trip! I notice though that our dates seem to be the busiest of the year? We arrive 28th march and leave 11th April 🙁 ….. Are we set to be queuing for the majority of our trip? And can you also recommend a site with the best deals on universal/Disney etc packages please? Cheers for your help in advance!!
Hi Twtiie and thanks!
Yes, it will be wildly busy until the 6th. After that you’ll have a number of great days. Suggest that through the 6th you focus on early mornings and evenings at the parks, and take the afternoons off. After the 6th early mornings is still the best approach, but afternoons will be much better.
You won’t find much in the way of deals for such a busy time, but the bets place to look is here: http://www.mousesavers.com/walt-disney-world-vacation-discounts-and-deals/
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Hi Dave: ) we have planned our trip for april 8th thru the 12th…does that seem to be a good time to go this year with the crowds becoming less? …it didnt look quite as bad from your chart. I also wondered with those dates I gave, which days would be best to visit magic kindom, animal kingdom, and epcot?
Hi Kristy, yup, crowds will be way down that week! See https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/09/18/april-2013-walt-disney-world/
“Best days” can be a little too constraining, so I like to give bad parks by day. So here’s that
4/8: avoid HS, AK, and Mk
4/9: avoid Epcot
4/10: avoid AK
4/11: avoid MK
4/12: avoid Epcot
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Dear Dave!
We already planned to travel from February 14th thru Monday 18th with my whole family from Ecuador – Southamerica, saddly we didn´t see your excellent website until now, so we just found out how busy it will get at Presidents´ Day.
We will be at the Disney Dream Cruise from february 10th till 14th, we will depart Canaveral Port at 8am.
Same day, february 14th, we where planning to get to Magic Kingdom, we are not sure what time we will arribe to MK from Port Canaveral. Time worries us a lot. Also it worries us how crowded MK will get, but seems that Valentines Day there will be a great experience!
February 15th, Island of Adventure. Cirque du Soleil at night.
February 16th, Busch Garden (we dont have any info about how crowded it will get that day).
February 17th, Universal Studios. My birthday also! 🙂
We will like to go to Animal K. or Sea World, but we dont know how to schedule it on our little visit time.
People recommended us to go to Lego Land, but the 7 adult on our group might get bored, what do u think?
Do you think we could visit 2 whole parks same day?
We are going with 3 little kids, 1, 2 and 4 years old, do you think our theme parks selection is alright for them?
What is the Fastpass and where could we buy it? What other tip do u recommend us to save time?
What time does the parks open and close?
What do you think about our schedule, what would you change for better?
Thanks so much for your time! You are welcome to visit us on ECUADOR anytime!!!
Muchas Gracias!!!
Maria
Hi Maria! A quick reaction: for kids the ages of yours, there’s hardly anything to do at either Busch Gardens, Islands of Adventure, or Universal Studios. At the Disney parks, there’s little for kids that age beyond the Magic Kingdom. (see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/03/09/the-comprehensive-guide-to-walt-disney-world-rides-and-attractions/ ) So are you targeting the other parks because of the adults?
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Hi dave: ) thankyou for answering my question today! …We forgot to ask you one more thing. The reason we r going to disney is for our son’s birthday, he will be turning 4 years old, and we wondered what perks we can get for him with that? if there is any?
Hi again Kristy! See this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/02/01/is-walt-disney-world-free-on-your-birthday/
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Thanks for your answer, we saw the link, it is really helpful!
Yes, we are targeting the otrher parks for adults also, for the kids what other parks or activities would you recommend?
Thanks for your time! 🙂
We are looking at booking a trip to WDW either the week of 2-24/3-3 or 3-3/3-10 ..Which of these weeks would you choose crowd wise ? We usually go in Jan.but are trying to avoid the large brazil groups this year .
Tina, I think the earlier week will be much less crowded. See this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/09/12/disney-world-crowds-in-2013/
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Dave,
Thanks for the response to my question on line 67, regarding my plans for april 2nd – 7th. 2013 Turns out I was mistaken and spring break for us is actually April 8th – 12th 2013. I am relieved now that we can avoid the Easter crowds, I see you have it as a #3 for crowds.
Thanks again really like this website. Very Helpful.
Thanks, Sam, and that’s great news–have a fantastic trip and let me know how it goes!
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Hi Dave,
We are thinking about booking our trip for April 9th or April 18th. Either the All star music or All star sports resort. Which would you recommend and which week is better? also our kids are 6 and 9. Do you have an itinerary for mid-week that would suit them? Your advice is appreciated. Also, how do we book meal reservations in advance? We have meal plans.
Thanks. Val
Hi Val, I don’t have a mid-week itinerary but you can adapt one of my itineraries by starting it on your arrival day–e.g. if you arrive on a Wednesday, start with its “Wednesday” stuff.
I like both those weeks quite a lot, but have a slight preference for the later one–see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/09/19/2013-weeks-to-visit-walt-disney-world-ranked-in-order/
I’m not keen on either Sport or Music. Sports is slightly more convenient, but if you have to choose between the two, pick the theme that resonates best with your kids. See this for more: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2010/08/04/the-value-resorts-at-walt-disney-world/
For how to book meals, see topics B and C on any of my To-Do Lists–e.g. this one: https://yourfirstvisit.net/planning-your-first-family-trip/to-do-list/to-do-lists-for-alternative-itineraries/to-do-list-v2-of-2009-autumn-winter-spring-itinerary/
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Hi Dave, I just booked our first Disney trip for March 14-17. Should I reschedul?
Hi Lilly, I would if you can. There are many much better weeks of the year to visit! See https://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/09/19/2013-weeks-to-visit-walt-disney-world-ranked-in-order/
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Hey Dave – you site is amazing and I can’t believe you actually answer all these questions!
In that light, I have another for you: I’m taking my new wife to WDW (Contemporary) for three days May 20-22 at the tail end of our honeymoon (after a week in the Bahamas!)
Two questions really: with so many kids entrenched in school during that time, why is the crowd level higher than the previous weeks? Also, the last time we went (Oct 2012) the crowds were projected to be low, but we ended up with about a thousand different Brazilian student touring groups in the parks with us – is there any way to plan for those? Have you taken those into account?
Thanks so much!
Thanks Andy! The short answer is your dates should be fine.
The longer answer is that my crowd calendars cover a Saturday through the next Sunday, matching my recommended Carrillo dates, lengths of stay, and itineraries. So the forecast for the week beginning Amy 18 includes effects from the high crowd Memorial Day weekend.
Moreover, kids begin getting out of school in some districts in mid-May–see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/07/31/disney-world-crowds-2013-summer-2013-crowds/
I don’t explicitly attend to the school breaks of other countries, but may include that in the future. Canada and UK breaks have much more of an impact on WDW than Brazil, so I’d likely start there…
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Hi Dave-
first thank you for this wonderful site- I have been googling all morning! Second we are the bad kind of parents who promote bad attendance and take the kids out of school for our Disney week. We are trying to decide between 4/12- 4/19 or 4/19- 4/26 what would you suggest?
Hi Evan, and you are welcome! Both are good, but I like the second better–see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/09/19/2013-weeks-to-visit-walt-disney-world-ranked-in-order/ And on the issue of the kids out of school–see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/08/23/taking-your-little-angels-or-devils-out-of-school-and-to-walt-disney-world/
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Dave, thank you for this!
Do you think the college spring break the first week of March will effect this much?
Im trying to decide for next year (which looks to be the same as this year except with a later Easter)
I was hoping Feb 22-Mar 8 but I was alerted to the fact March 2-8 is college spring break for a LOT of schools. (including Florida colleges)
Now Im thinking of switching to Feb 1-15 as that would guarantee lower crowds but iffy weather. Any input? Thanks
Susan, no I don’t, as very few college kids go to WDW on break.
I find that I can only travel to WDW during the crowded, expensive peak seasons because of my job. I purchased air fair in October for the week of March 22-29. I am now very worried about the crowds but we are committed to the dates. I read that some of the parks were closed due to capacity in December over the holiday weeks. Is that true? Has this ever happened during spring break weeks? We usually get to the parks when they open, leave from 1:00-5:00, and then go back to the park to close it down. This has worked well for us in the past. Do you suggest we just stay at the park to avoid being turned away? Any and all advice is appreciated!
Laura, spring break closures are much less common than Christmas seaosn closures, so you should be fine on that front. And your touring strategy is perfect!
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Hey Dave, Do you have the list of schools that you used (and their spring break dates)?
I’m trying to do an analysis as well and any info you had on your methods would be helpful!
Dennis, I don’t have them on this computer–I’ll have access to them on Tuesday, so if you come back then I can get them and put them up.
What I do is start with the top 100 school districts in the US by number of students.
However, this yields some states that send a lot of kids to WDW that are represented by just one district–e.g. Chicago for Illinois, Detroit for Michigan, while other states like Texas and California have tons of districts on the top 100 list. So I expand the list with about 75 more districts, the largest in each under-represented state, so that I end up with a better sample.
I then use the totality of my data on a state to represent the state as a whole (an analytical stretch….but I don’t know what other way to do it), and weight each state based on its proportionate visits to this website, as a proxy for WDW attendance (because I can’t get the proprietary data on actual visits to WDW by state, and otherwise I’d be de-facto weighting by the number of kids in my 175 targets, which makes no sense)
Does this help?
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Hi Dave,
We’re planning to visit Disney, but we have only these dates available and I would like to know your advise in which one will be better: from 03/29/13-04/03/07 or from 05/22/13-05/27/13. We’re going with a 3yr old and 10yr old!!!
Thanks!!
Hi Chiara, both weeks–being holiday weeks–are crowded, but the March/April period will be much worse! So if those are your only choices, do the May week…
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