By the co-author of The easy Guide to Your Walt Disney World Visit 2019, the best-reviewed Disney World guidebook series ever.

Available on Amazon here.





Analytic Calendar of 2019 Disney World Ticket Prices



By Dave Shute

I’ve color coded the start dates of the various base ticket lengths in Disney World’s new date-based ticket pricing system to indicate less and more expensive ticket dates in 2019.

In what follows, dates with a green fill are the least expensive dates of the year for that ticket type, and dates with a red fill are the most expensive. In each case, I’ve bolded the extremes, so a green fill with a bold number is the least expensive rounded price for that length of the year, and a red fill with a bold number is the most expensive rounded price of the year.

In addition, I’ve marked the “shoulder” price dates with either red or green text on a white background. So green text on white means one dollar more than what qualifies for a green fill, and red text on white means one dollar less than qualifying for a red fill. These colored “shoulder” numbers are more helpful with shorter and medium-length tickets, as the longer tickets have less price variation over the course of the year.

Dates with black text on a white background are everything else–you can think of them as “typical” of “average.”

I selected dates for a red or a green fill based on the standard deviation of prices for that ticket length. Green fill means the price is priced at or less than one standard deviation less than the average price of that ticket length; red Fill means it is priced at or more than one standard deviation more than the average price for that ticket length.

Note that all my work is based on the rounded prices Disney published—for the simple reason that unrounded prices would take me two or three days more for data collection—and are pre-tax. As a result, the standard deviation breaks are not exact, but based on rounded prices. In most case this worked well, but when I got a .5 fraction I used judgment on where to make the break—picking the break point to be most consistent with the overall data set, where about 20% of dates have red fills, 20% green fills, and 60% are white.

Moreover, one day tickets don’t really work in this approach, as they have only four prices. So I gave all the lowest priced one day tickets green fill and bold, all the highest priced one day tickets red fill and bold, all the second lowest price green text, and all the second highest text red text.

January 2019

All ticket lengths begin January at high prices. Shorter (1-3 day) tickets continue high through the 6th or so, move after then through various levels, and around the 20th become low-priced. Long (8 to 10 day) tickets hit low prices around January 6th and stay low until early-mid February, with the lowest prices of the year in place for most long tickets from January 21 through early February. Medium (4 to 7 day) length tickets start seeing low prices around January 6th through 8th, and remain low until February 7th or so, seeing the lowest prices of the year many of these dates.

February 2019

All ticket lengths begin February at low prices. Long tickets are low almost all month long, shifting to average levels around February 26. Short tickets see high prices around February 14th through 18, but are low most of the rest of the month. Medium length tickets start the month low, see average prices from around the 10th through the 17th, and then are mostly low until the 27th.

March 2019

All ticket lengths see a mix of mostly average and higher prices, with the best prices at most lengths available at the very end of the month. Shorter tickets bounce around until March 14th, and then are largely high until the end of the month when they drop to average or low. Longer tickets see high prices by March 5, and stay at high levels until around March 26. Medium length tickets begin and end the month with average prices but are higher in the middle, with the beginning of high prices varying by length.

April 2019

April ticket prices at all lengths begin and end the month either average or low, and see high prices in the middle of the month. Long tickets move within a day or two into high prices and stay high until around April 25—with many dates seeing the highest prices of the year. Prices become low by April 28. Medium length tickets follow the same rough pattern, but high prices for most don’t begin until April 9, and prices hit average levels by April 26th. Shorter tickets see a mix of average and low prices until April 11, when high prices kick in and last until around April 26.

May 2019

The first half of May sees a mix of average and low prices for all ticket lengths except one day tickets, which have higher prices over Friday-Sundays. After the middle of the month, higher prices kick in for longer tickets on May 15, are in place for all medium-length tickets by May 19, and for all shorter tickets by May 24.

June 2019

June prices are high for all ticket lengths until the very end of the month, when they see some average and even low prices for shorter tickets, and average prices for long tickets.

July 2019

July prices are quite varied. All ticket lengths being the month with high or average prices, and largely end the month with low or average prices. The rest of the month is quite the mix of low, average, and high prices. Long tickets begin the month with average prices, and see high prices by July 12. Prices shift to average by July 21, and largely stay at that level until the end of the month. Short tickets start high, then switch to low by July 7. Prices then shift to a mix of high and average, mostly high, from around July 12 to July 24. Prices drop to low on July 28. Medium-length tickets show a similar pattern to short tickets, but with fewer high priced tickets and more average ones.

August 2019

The first third of August shows a mix of high and average prices for short and medium-length tickets. Longer tickets see a few high prices, but are mostly average until around August 8, when they become low. All ticket lengths hit low prices by August 11, stay low for a few days, then see a mix of low and average prices the rest of the month, with low prices becoming predominant as the month goes on, especially in medium and long tickets.

September 2019

Except for the very shortest ticket lengths, which bounce around, September sees low ticket prices, including some of the lowest prices of the year, until September 28, when ticket prices become a mix of low and average.

October 2019

Except for the very shortest ticket lengths, which bounce around, October sees almost entirely average ticket prices.

November 2019

The first part of November and the very last day of the month see the same pattern of pricing as October—varied in the shortest tickets, average for everything else. At various points later in the month, high prices kick in. Longer tickets see high prices beginning about November 12. High prices kick in beginning November 15 for some medium-length tickets, and are fully in place for all by November 19. Shorter tickets see high prices by November 22.

December 2019

Shorter tickets bounce around until around December 12, when they become high. Long tickets start at average prices but see high prices by December 4. Medium length tickets have largely average prices but become high by December 11. Prices for the rest of the month range from high to highest of the year.

 

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1 comment

1 Kelly B - Destinations in Florida { 10.23.18 at 2:48 pm }

Thanks so much Dave. This chart is amazing.

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