Disney World Crowds: Spring Break 2014
By Dave Shute
DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL 2014
DISNEY WORLD SPRING BREAK CROWDS: THE PRINCIPLES
Walt Disney World Spring Break crowds are governed by two and a quarter factors:
- Public school Spring Break calendars, which are still largely framed around Easter
- The demand of snow-belters for a break from winter weather, which peaks in March, and
- The quarter factor, the date of President’s day. Later President’s Days (which can range from February 15 to February 21) tend to make the first part of March better
An early Easter combines the first two factors, making for more than the usual horrible crowds in March but a great April; a late Easter spreads the first two factors out, yielding some good early March and early April weeks.
Easter 2014, on April 20, is very late in the possible range. President’s Day 2014, on February 17th, is in the middle of its possible range.
As a result, 2014 Spring Break crowds at Walt Disney World will be
- Fine the last week of February and the first week of March,
- Very rough the weeks beginning March 8, 15, and 22
- Better the week beginning March 29
- Fine the week beginning April 5,
- Horrible the week of April 12
- Bad, but not horrible, the week beginning April 19
- ..and back to fine the week beginning April 26
2014 PUBLIC SCHOOL SPRING BREAKS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WALT DISNEY WORLD CROWDS
Although more and more school districts are moving away from an Easter-centered Spring Break, the plurality of kids still have the week before Easter off, and, in years without a late Easter, the next biggest group has off some or all of the week following Easter.
As a result, the single biggest factor determining better and worse Spring Break weeks at Walt Disney World is the date of Easter–which can range from March 22 to April 25.
A later Easter has a couple of different effects: first, it spreads out the dates of breaks for school districts that don’t frame their breaks around Easter, and second, if particularly late, will push districts that typically take the week after Easter off into the week before Easter instead, to keep from compressing their May academic calendars. We see both these factors in 2014.
An earlier Easter has the opposite effects. Districts that traditionally try to take the week after Easter off will be able to do so, and districts that don’t base their calendars on Easter will be largely compressed into a couple of March weeks.
(The compression point partly comes from only just so much March to go around, but also from the fact that such school districts don’t like taking the week before the traditional Easter break off, as it will lead into a set of political discussions (“If we could take that week off, why not slip it a week and take before week of Easter off? What do you have against Easter??”) that they don’t want to revisit.)
The date of President’s Day–which can range from February 15 to February 21–also has an effect. Because many districts both have a spring break and also take the week of President’s Day off, the later President’s Day is, the better early March will be–as parents avoid taking their kids out of school the weeks after a long President’s Day break.
The effect of the various dates in 2014 is to spread most 2014 school spring breaks into five weeks: those beginning March 8, March 15, March 22, April 12, and April 19.
ACTUAL 2014 SPRING BREAKS
The chart above illuminates this.
It’s based on data from a weighted sample including more than 180 of the largest relevant US public school districts.
(For how the database is built, see this. The two holidays–President’s Day and Easter–are in red. Click the image to enlarge it.)
President’s Day week will be its usual mess, with a 2014 crowd ranking of 10/higher. Crowds will start to show beginning the Thursday before and remain high through the 22nd.
Next to no kids are on break between the week after President’s Day and March 7. I rate the week beginning February 22 3/low crowds. The week beginning March 1 is rated 4/low-plus crowds. Both of these are recommended weeks.
The weeks beginning March 8, 15 and 22 have a lot of kids on break, and even more visitors coming to take a break from the snow. I rate the week of the 8th as 10/higher crowds, and the next two weeks as 9/high crowds.
The week of March 29 shows a lot of kids on break, but almost 80% of the relevant districts in my sample have another long break at another time in the spring of 2014. This, combined with fewer snow visits as April emerges, lead me to give at crowd ranking of 5/moderate-minus.
As is typical, the week before the week before Easter has hardly any kids on break. So the crowd ranking for the week beginning April 5 is 3/low. This is also a recommended week.
The week before Easter, beginning April 12, will be just horrible. I’ve rated this week 11/highest crowds in my 2014 crowd calendar. Many districts that normally break the week after Easter are, because of the late Easter, breaking this week instead. Disney broke attendance records this week in 2013–I expect it to do so again this week in 2014.
The week after Easter, traditionally a mess, looks better than usual in 2014–again, because of break dates changing to earlier with the late Easter. I’ve rated crowds that week (beginning April 19) as 8/high-minus.
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106 comments
Dave
Same applies for Disneyland I would assume?
Thanks
Sid
Sid–I can’t say that it does. They have very different geographic draws, and I weight my raw data based on WDW attendance by state (I use the distribution of visitors to this site by state as my proxy for that.) Disneyland is MUCH more dominated by Southern California school schedules…
Hi, i plan to go to WDW on march 18th to 26th, do you think is it a good time for the Disney parks? Do you the parks will be crowed? Thank you to give me an answer
Danh–I have those dates as high crowd. See https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/10/07/disney-world-crowds-2014/
We are doing MK both days, so Tuesday and Wednesday it is! THANK YOU!
Yay, Kate!
My wife and I are both teachers and are planning on taking our 4 and 5 year old daughters for their first visit during our spring break 4/20 through 4/23. We really don’t have many other options for dates when it won’t be extremely hot. I am wondering how much the crowds will effect us. We are staying on Disney properties. Will the ‘extra magic hours’ help? Also, my kids will be too small to ride many of the more popular attractions (only doing Magic Kingdom) Would that alleviate some of the crowd problems at all?
Andy, the Extra Magic hours and expected 8a opens (so EMH will being at 7a) will help a bit, so your first 90-120 minutes should be OK. … (other than MK becasue it will have them every day) the parks will be more crowded than non-EMH days after. Book your FastPass+ for late morning, and plan to take the afternoons off. And there will be tons of other kids the ages of yours who also can’t get on some of the rides, so the age-appropriate stuff will be mobbed too…
We were planning March 9th through the 11th…we have a 4 year old and a 2 year old… Thinking about Epcot, Disney World, and the last day, Animal Kingdom. Do you think these dates would be ok for crowds because it’s sun, Mon, Tue?? Thanks for your info… It’s very helpful!
Audrey, that’s a very busy week to start with and Sundays and Mondays (plus Saturdays) are usually busier than the rest of the week. See this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/10/07/disney-world-crowds-2014/
Disney World has four theme parks–the Magic Kingdom, Epcot, the Animal Kingdom, and Disney’s Hollywood Studios. At those ages and wit such a short trip during a high crowd week, I’d focus on MK alone–you could easily spend three mornings, an afternoon, and an evening there. If you wish to add parks, mornings at HS and AK make sense too, but not Epcot.
Hi Dave. I am planning to come to Disney for a 10-14 night stay depending on Price etc.
I am looking at arriving either 31st March or 30th April. Which of these 10-14 periods from these dates would you say is more suitable in terms of crowds and weather (we are travelling from UK with a 4 year old) Many thanks for your help.
Stuart, if 2014, then 30 April is a better arrival date on all measures–crowds, prices, and weather!
loving ur site..question..it will be just my 13yr old boy and myself..where do u suggest staying (4 nights) on a budget and a good time to go in the spring will take him out of school coming from Pennsylvania did Disney once in 2008 thanks
Hi Sara and thanks!
For where to stay, see this: https://yourfirstvisit.net/planning-your-first-family-trip/where-to-stay/ and for the ebst weeks in the spring, go down this list: https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/10/15/2014-weeks-visit-walt-disney-world-ranked-order/
I am planning a Florida vacation March 29-April 7. We would like to visit disney for one day only. Is there a certain day that is typically less crowded?
Thanks!
Sarah, it varies a bit by whihc of the four theme parks you are considering. For example, Tuesdays and Wednesdays are generally best, but Tuesdays are bad at Epcot your dates, and Wednesdays are bad at the Animal Kingdom…
Help! We booked our trip from April 22-29, thinking it would be after Easter and most spring break. I’m really surprised to see some are still on break! Other factors in that week selection have to do with my husband’s job. The week after, flowing into May, wouldn’t work unfortunately.
Are we going to be totally screwed? Will I regret it? Should we think about canceling for some other time?
I mean, looking at your chart, there’s only ly like 10% of kids on break at the first part. So maybe crowd wise it isn’t a death kiss?
I need something here. Either assurance it will be ok, or telling me to show up ready for crowds.
Kacie, in a year with a more “normal” Easter, the week after Easter is the second-most common spring break week.
Because Easter is so late in 2014, a lot of schools that normally take the week after off are taking the week before off instead, so that week won’t be as bad as in most years.
But it’ll still be bad…at least up through the 25th…
Thanks, Dave! We’ll brace ourselves and be sure to hit RD for those first few days, at minimum. At least the last half of our trip should taper off 🙂
I saw the crowd calendar on touringplans and it seemed to think it wouldn’t be so bad, but I’m not sure why. A 5 on Easter Sunday just doesn’t make a lot of sense.
I dunno why they have a 5 either…it’ll likely be an 8, or, if we get lucky, a 7…
Thanks for such a great resource! Unfortunately our trip this year is booked from March 14th to 22nd, but the crowd forecast has me nervous. Our family usually goes in mid August or in early January after New Year’s to the marathon. Any chance the crowds will be comparable to these times? Our family have always found them manageable because we take advantage of later hours. Again, thanks for the information!
Hi Stephanie and thanks! Crowds will be a little worse than in early August. But you should be OK–hit a couple of headliners at park open, and some more via FastPass+ later in the day…fill in between with lower-wait attractions
We are planning a spring vacation for this May.we ere going to pull kids out of school for this week if less people vacation during this time at Disney.is it worth it or is it not too busy during reg vacation scheduled April 28-May 2???
Shelley, I don’t see big crowds the week of the 28th of April–you should be fine then!
Any idea what the ride wait times will be for Magic Kingdom and Epcot on April 15-17? Thank you so much for answering everyone`s questions! You have the most valuable info!
Hi Cheris and thanks! The week before Easter is one of the three or four busiest of the year. Waits likely will exceed 2 hours at Epcot’s most popular rides, and be close to that at the Magic Kingdom favorites….
Just booked for fri 27 march 2015 to fri 3 April 2015 in Orlando then next week in fort Meyers to recover! Only planning to do wdw and Epcot. What days ( given it is leading to Easter ) would you recommend based on your expert knowledge? I’ve not purchased tickets yet. Thank you in advance.
Hi Jules, I can’t give specific guidance til Disney releases its calendar for then–which it will about 6.5 months before–but you will have no good choices then, as the parks will be wildly crowded. See https://yourfirstvisit.net/2013/12/05/disney-world-crowds-in-2015/
So check back 6 months before and I’ll be able to help a bit then….
We are planning a trip March 15-20 and I wish I would have found this site before I booked! I understand the crowds will be high, what does this mean as it relates to wait times. I have 2 preschool age children and an infant so we will be focused on rides and attractions geared towards them. I am getting sort of panicky as this is our first trip and I want it to be great!
Toni, peak waits could approach–or even exceed–two hours at the most popular rides and attractions by late morning/early afternoon. The secret is to arrive at the parks before they open, hit a ride or attraction first thing that builds long lines quickly, and use FastPass+ for other rides that build super lines…
Oh and we are staying at the Wilderness Lodge – so at least I did right on accomodations!
Cool, Toni!
Hi Dave! I am a little bit worry about what I’ve read hear. I’m planning to stay there from March 24th to April 4th with my boyfriend (no kids coming) and we want to go 5 days to wdw and 2 days to Universal. I’m coming from Spain where we have the easter week, which is later, but not several different spring breaks, so I thought it would be perfect! So those are my free days…how would you organize the stay? Because I don’t know why jyouhdqY says better for one park and an another day for another park.
Hi Marko! Universal tend sot be better Saturday-Monday–see this https://yourfirstvisit.net/2011/07/31/the-best-and-worst-days-of-the-week-to-see-the-wizarding-world-of-harry-potter/
At the Disney parks, the best days will be Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. You have two of each in your schedule so should be OK. Avoid Epcot on Tuesdays, the Animal Kingdom on Wednesday, and the Magic Kingdom on Thursdays…
Because I dont know why you say that one day is better than other for each park.
Hello,
I see a lot of info. for Feb., March and April. We have very flexible schedule and are planing to go the last week of April or any of the first two weeks of May. We are taking a 4 and 2 yrs. old boys. Any suggestions? Thanks,
Nico, see this, especially weeks #5 and 6 https://yourfirstvisit.net/2012/10/15/2014-weeks-visit-walt-disney-world-ranked-order/ ; then this https://yourfirstvisit.net/2013/09/18/april-2014-at-walt-disney-world/ and this https://yourfirstvisit.net/2013/10/15/may-2014-at-walt-disney-world/
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